A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Duran Is The Man]

It will and the Sox need to ignore and move on to other pitchers. Yamamoto is a waste of time since the Sox are not outbidding the Mets or Yankees…

 

And then when Yam is signed, we’ll hear the same thing about Snell & Montgomery. Let’s face it, Henry isn’t going to put up the money to sign a decent SP. clearly, he’s content with finishing last every year.

[moonslav59]

JH will blame Brez.

 

And some will fall for the sham, again.

 

I’m not trying to sound hopeful, as I have said I’ll only believe it when I see it, but there is some evidence JH is trending back to spending more. This winter looks like he’ll have to kick it up a few notches, and again, I’ll believe it when I see it.

 

Last year, the team finally reached the 2018 spending level. Since March of 2022, JH has forked over $300M for Devers, $140 for Story and$100M for Yoshida. In that context, going $250-350M for a pitcher may not sound all that absurd.

 

Several teams have passed us in spending, so this is a new era. I’m sure JH knows this. I’m not sure he wants to join the madmen at the top. He might have to in order to get one of the remaining 3 prizes or even 2 of the best leftovers.

 

We’ll see.

[sk7326]

Spending money didn’t help the Mets last year, or the Padres for that matter, but unfortunately you have a handful of owners now that are going to outspend everyone else, and JH isn’t one of them anymore. He used to be the the money game has changed big time just in the last 5 years.

 

The Padres chased blind a bit for sure .. the thing is the Soto trade ... which they had to make because of the TV deal going belly up, might end up leaving them a bit better balanced.

[sk7326]

And some will fall for the sham, again.

 

I’m not trying to sound hopeful, as I have said I’ll only believe it when I see it, but there is some evidence JH is trending back to spending more. This winter looks like he’ll have to kick it up a few notches, and again, I’ll believe it when I see it.

 

Last year, the team finally reached the 2018 spending level. Since March of 2022, JH has forked over $300M for Devers, $140 for Story and$100M for Yoshida. In that context, going $250-350M for a pitcher may not sound all that absurd.

 

Several teams have passed us in spending, so this is a new era. I’m sure JH knows this. I’m not sure he wants to join the madmen at the top. He might have to in order to get one of the remaining 3 prizes or even 2 of the best leftovers.

 

We’ll see.

 

While he might not want to join the madmen up top ... he does like winning. And he has seen the fan apathy. As we've discussed before - fans want hope, and Boston fans want a bit more than that. 2023 and 2024 are the two years of his ownership where there is (at least right now) the least amount of ex ante hope for the ballclub's success. That will only get fixed with shoring up the pitching to some degree or another.

[moonslav59]

While he might not want to join the madmen up top ... he does like winning. And he has seen the fan apathy. As we've discussed before - fans want hope, and Boston fans want a bit more than that. 2023 and 2024 are the two years of his ownership where there is (at least right now) the least amount of ex ante hope for the ballclub's success. That will only get fixed with shoring up the pitching to some degree or another.

 

I agree, and I still have hope.

 

Maybe I am sounding hypocritical, but I do think Henry may spike the budget, I'm just not letting myself expect it or even be optimistic it will happen. I'll elieve it when I see it.

 

For know, I'm expecting the sham to continue. Maybe we sign Lugo and Imanaga, and JH thinks that will buy him another year for the sham.

 

If that is what happens, I'm not falling for it.

 

[dgalehouse]

Near the bottom check out the photo of Tyler O’Neill’s father and Arnold Schwartzennegger:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/12/9/23994595/meet-the-new-guy-tyler-oneill-red-sox-trade-cardinals-analysis

 

Playing right field for Boston , Mr. Olympia.

[dgalehouse]

Listen, Bloom could sign 70 starting pitchers with that money.

 

Good minor league depth.

[moonslav59]

Good minor league depth.

 

$10M pitchers are not minor leaguers, unless they turn out like Richards or Kluber.

[Larry Cook]

I will blame JH not Brez.

 

I do not know if we can blame Henry! The teams bidding for Yamamoto are big spenders

[moonslav59]

I do not know if we can blame Henry! The teams bidding for Yamamoto are big spenders

 

I'm okay with missing out on Yamo, if we get...

 

1 from Snell or Monty

PLUS

1 from Imanaga, Lugo, Stroman, Wacha

 

I might be OK with Imanaga, Lugo & Stroman.

 

If we can't do any of these, it's on Henry, unless Breslow spends the money it took to get any of these choices on other positions.

 

That being said, I'm not part of the dump JH brigade. I might not be, even if we fall short, this winter.

 

We'll see, soon enough.

[notin]

And then when Yam is signed, we’ll hear the same thing about Snell & Montgomery. Let’s face it, Henry isn’t going to put up the money to sign a decent SP. clearly, he’s content with finishing last every year.

 

The more I look into this, the more I start to think Montgomery is just a much, much better pitcher than Snell. Hoping Breslow ignores Blake the Fake and signs Montgomery…

[Duran Is The Man]

The more I look into this, the more I start to think Montgomery is just a much, much better pitcher than Snell. Hoping Breslow ignores Blake the Fake and signs Montgomery…

 

i'd be fine with Montgomery. but my expectations are so low, i doubt it happens.

[moonslav59]

The more I look into this, the more I start to think Montgomery is just a much, much better pitcher than Snell. Hoping Breslow ignores Blake the Fake and signs Montgomery…

 

I like Monty, too. I've been letting talk about Snell being better than Monty get to me.

 

I hear TOR made a real competitive offer to Ohtani, so I have to think they will get one of the three. If Cohen wants one, I have to think he gets one. That leaves one for BOS, NYY and any other team that wants to spend.

 

It will all come down to JH wanting it bad enough and Brez trying to convince him one of them is worth the plunge.

[moonslav59]

It seems weird that we all knew we were not getting Ohtani, yet it seems like the sky has fallen in Sox Nation upon that news.

 

[Old Red]

It seems weird that we all knew we were not getting Ohtani, yet it seems like the sky has fallen in Sox Nation upon that news.

 

 

I don’t think a few posters on talksox showing their displeasure about not getting Ohtani adds up to the sky is falling in Red Sox Nation. Way over exaggerated, and it’s not like how goes talksox how goes the Nation. TalkSox isn’t even a blip on the radar screen in any kind of picture especially like a BIG picture that make up Red Sox Nation. Omg, omg.

[Bellhorn04]

It seems weird that we all knew we were not getting Ohtani, yet it seems like the sky has fallen in Sox Nation upon that news.

 

 

Maybe because the Ohtani contract reinforces the idea that some organizations are all in and prepared to spend crazy if necessary, and the Red Sox aren't one of them.

 

If we had some optimism about signing Moto it would be different. But I think the optimism in that area is gone. And the Dodgers signing Ohtani might actually give them a better chance of signing Moto.

 

Just reading a piece in the Athletic by Chad Jennings and Jen McCaffrey. They're the ones who quoted someone in the Sox organization as saying the approach under Breslow is remarkably the same as it was under Bloom, and you can tell they're starting to get a little uneasy about it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's not that Sox fans are upset they didn't get Ohtani. It's just watching other teams -- competitive clubs serious about upgrading year after year -- improve their chances ever winter by adding available talent.

 

Ohtani can't pitch, but any batting order is better if it features the MLB leader in OPS...

 

... and now we face the reality of all those legitimate big market teams he didn't sign with that have lots of money to spend on players the Sox actually need.

[Bellhorn04]

The Full Throttle Gang still has the wheels in the garage making a lot of tuneups and modifications. They're not sure now if it'll be ready to drive in 2024 or not.

[Dipre]

Breslow better not f*** this up.

[Duran Is The Man]

It's not that Sox fans are upset they didn't get Ohtani. It's just watching other teams -- competitive clubs serious about upgrading year after year -- improve their chances ever winter by adding available talent.

 

Ohtani can't pitch, but any batting order is better if it features the MLB leader in OPS...

 

... and now we face the reality of all those legitimate big market teams he didn't sign with that have lots of money to spend on players the Sox actually need.

 

i was about to type something just like this but, as always, you said it much more eloquently.

[Dipre]

The biggest reality check for John Henry, if this offseason is another failure, hinges on the fact that there are no more scapegoats. He fired Bloom, so who's he gonna blame now? They're under the lux tax, so why can't they spend? There aren't any large, long-term contracts on the books, so what's the long-term payroll holdup? The farm system is pretty stacked on the position player side, so why not cash in some prospect capital to get legitimate upgrades?

 

There are no more excuses. No Chaim, no bloated payroll, lots of expiring (or nearly expiring) contracts, and prospect capital. Time to act.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Breslow better not f*** this up.

 

With Bellhorn's revelation from the Atlantic -- "someone in the Sox organization as saying the approach under Breslow is remarkably the same as it was under Bloom" -- Sox fans now have to question if the new CBO is really just another mouthpiece.

 

Even eternal optimist Moon is starting to accept we're all being duped.

 

If we go back to one of the reported reasons Dombrowski was fired -- that he ignored or dismissed the longtime voices in many departments -- it's worth wondering now if Bloom was ever really in charge. Does it really make sense for a company to hire an inexperienced young man to outrank veteran execs, many of whom were pushing two decades of company service?

 

Does it really make sense that the Red Sox have now just done it twice in four years -- while keeping all of the same front office staff who have been there forever?

[moonslav59]

I don’t think a few posters on talksox showing their displeasure about not getting Ohtani adds up to the sky is falling in Red Sox Nation. Way over exaggerated, and it’s not like how goes talksox how goes the Nation. TalkSox isn’t even a blip on the radar screen in any kind of picture especially like a BIG picture that make up Red Sox Nation. Omg, omg.

 

No, it's not about the very few who wished we got him. It's about the idea that the $700M given to Ohtani will end up pricing Yamo, Snell and Monty out of our price range.

 

Certainly, the tone here has shifted sharply since the signing. I don't think it's an exaggeration, but I'll defer to you - the expert on the pulse of Sox Nation..

[moonslav59]

Breslow better not f*** this up.

 

If JH says to Brez, you have $56M or $76M (AAV) to spend this winter, then it's on Brez to get us a top pitcher and a decent second one.

 

If JH says no long term, mega deals to SP'ers, then it's on JH, if it does not happen- not Brez.

[moonslav59]

The biggest reality check for John Henry, if this offseason is another failure, hinges on the fact that there are no more scapegoats. He fired Bloom, so who's he gonna blame now? They're under the lux tax, so why can't they spend? There aren't any large, long-term contracts on the books, so what's the long-term payroll holdup? The farm system is pretty stacked on the position player side, so why not cash in some prospect capital to get legitimate upgrades?

 

There are no more excuses. No Chaim, no bloated payroll, lots of expiring (or nearly expiring) contracts, and prospect capital. Time to act.

 

Exactly, and that is why I feel he must know Sox fans are watching closely.

 

He may not let that convince him to open up his checkbook, but he'll feel the wrath, if he doesn't.

[moonslav59]

With Bellhorn's revelation from the Atlantic -- "someone in the Sox organization as saying the approach under Breslow is remarkably the same as it was under Bloom" -- Sox fans now have to question if the new CBO is really just another mouthpiece.

 

Even eternal optimist Moon is starting to accept we're all being duped.

 

If we go back to one of the reported reasons Dombrowski was fired -- that he ignored or dismissed the longtime voices in many departments -- it's worth wondering now if Bloom was ever really in charge. Does it really make sense for a company to hire an inexperienced young man to outrank veteran execs, many of whom were pushing two decades of company service?

 

Does it really make sense that the Red Sox have now just done it twice in four years -- while keeping all of the same front office staff who have been there forever?

 

I'm not starting to be convinced: I am convinced. It's been a 4+ year dupe. (It actually started when we did not bring Kimbrell and Kelly back or replace them in kind. The near miracle in '21 just bought them more time with the fanbase.

 

Whether the dupe continues is up for debate, IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

With Bellhorn's revelation from the Atlantic -- "someone in the Sox organization as saying the approach under Breslow is remarkably the same as it was under Bloom" -- Sox fans now have to question if the new CBO is really just another mouthpiece.

 

Even eternal optimist Moon is starting to accept we're all being duped.

 

If we go back to one of the reported reasons Dombrowski was fired -- that he ignored or dismissed the longtime voices in many departments -- it's worth wondering now if Bloom was ever really in charge. Does it really make sense for a company to hire an inexperienced young man to outrank veteran execs, many of whom were pushing two decades of company service?

 

Does it really make sense that the Red Sox have now just done it twice in four years -- while keeping all of the same front office staff who have been there forever?

 

You do raise a good ugly question there.

[Bellhorn04]

If JH says to Brez, you have $56M or $76M (AAV) to spend this winter, then it's on Brez to get us a top pitcher and a decent second one.

 

If JH says no long term, mega deals to SP'ers, then it's on JH, if it does not happen- not Brez.

 

Keep in mind that we'll never know what's actually going on, any more than we know if it was Bloom's fault we invested no more than $10 mill in a starting pitcher...

[moonslav59]

Keep in mind that we'll never know what's actually going on, any more than we know if it was Bloom's fault we invested no more than $10 mill in a starting pitcher...

 

We do know he pulled the offer to Nate, so that one is on him.

 

I'm not sure he would have been allowed to outbid the Rays for Eflin or give him 4 years, but I doubt the size of that deal was on JH.

 

He also guessed wrongly on both $10M/1 pitchers: Kluber and Richards. That's not on JH.

 

Yes, we don't know how the budgets given to our GMs are set up. Probably, the longer term deals need pre-approval. Apparently the Nate one was.

 

[mvp 78]

Maybe because the Ohtani contract reinforces the idea that some organizations are all in and prepared to spend crazy if necessary, and the Red Sox aren't one of them.

 

If we had some optimism about signing Moto it would be different. But I think the optimism in that area is gone. And the Dodgers signing Ohtani might actually give them a better chance of signing Moto.

 

Just reading a piece in the Athletic by Chad Jennings and Jen McCaffrey. They're the ones who quoted someone in the Sox organization as saying the approach under Breslow is remarkably the same as it was under Bloom, and you can tell they're starting to get a little uneasy about it.

 

It's probably the approach that OWNERSHIP wants. They just want a CBO that can make moves at the deadline and be a bit more of a difference maker. I don't think Breslow was coming in to tear the whole thing down.