A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

First no one knows outside of SS who is going to be playing at any of those positions next year. I was just mainly talking about 1B, and 3B.

 

I'm more certain or equally so that Devers plays 3B and Casas 1B than Story at SS.

 

My point is that we can improve 4 positions on D without making any roster additions. Whether we do or not, is up to Breslow & Cora.

[mvp 78]

Thanks for the thoughtful response.

 

1. Yes 2 SP'ers, but I'd add "solid & dependable" or three decent & dependable.

2. I'm not sure Breslow will move Story to 2B, and Cora might be the main guy to decide this, but I'm kind of okay with Story at SS (Reyes as sub) and Urias/Reyes/EValdez at 2B to start 2024.

3. If adding Hedges worsens who we sign to pitch, I'd just stick with McGuire and hope Teel jumps levels.

4. Agreed.

5. I think Dugo should go.

6. I'd be fine starting the year with CF: Rafaela/Abreu and RF: Duvall/Abreu

7. Near FT DH. Only play him in LF, if you want to give Raffy a rest at 3B by DH'ing him.

8. Most of our RP'ers do pretty well vs LHBs. I don't see this as a major priority, but still would be helpful.

 

 

 

1. I think they need a #1 and a #2 rather than lower rung guys like the Wacha and Hills of the world.

2. If they go with what they go, obviously Story is the best choice at SS for now. Mayer to SS next season? Mayer to 2B? Mayer to 3B? Figure that out next offseason.

3. Hedges only signed for 5M last season. That's Urias' nontender.

6. Seems like an ok plan. I have heard rumblings about Rafaela getting MIF time too.

8. I agree that they shouldn't force a LHP into the bullpen at the expense of a better arm. The bullpen isn't really a problem and should only be better next year.

[mvp 78]

It sure seemed like Bloom was surprised when Bogey bolted, but I'm not convinced. Still, that does seem like that was the plan, when we signed Story- despite my wishes they flip Bogey to 2B.

 

I think he may have been surprised by the timing, but not surprised that he left. He was probably just not ready to field questions about why the Sox couldn't keep a franchise guy like that.

[Old Red]

I'm more certain or equally so that Devers plays 3B and Casas 1B than Story at SS.

 

My point is that we can improve 4 positions on D without making any roster additions. Whether we do or not, is up to Breslow & Cora.

 

I already know about 1B, and 3B. I was talking about the other positions you mentioned.

[Old Red]

I think he may have been surprised by the timing, but not surprised that he left. He was probably just not ready to field questions about why the Sox couldn't keep a franchise guy like that.

 

If he was surprised he shouldn’t have been. Bogey was gone when they only offered him that 1 yr extension before the 2022 season. He wasn’t gone just when SD signed him.

[moonslav59]

8. I agree that they shouldn't force a LHP into the bullpen at the expense of a better arm. The bullpen isn't really a problem and should only be better next year.

 

If we add 2-3 SP'ers, our pen will have 8-9 arms that are good neough to not need a lefty replacing them.

[moonslav59]

I already know about 1B, and 3B. I was talking about the other positions you mentioned.

 

OK. If people are speculating on how bad our 2024 defense will be, they are assuming certain people will be at certain positions.

 

I'm not even moving anybody to a new position, except Yoshida to DH and giving Duran less time in CF and more in LF.

 

It's basically what our current depth chart shows.

 

Sure, changes may be made at any position, but the foundation we have, now, looks better on D than 2023.

[Old Red]

OK. If people are speculating on how bad our 2024 defense will be, they are assuming certain people will be at certain positions.

 

I'm not even moving anybody to a new position, except Yoshida to DH and giving Duran less time in CF and more in LF.

 

It's basically what our current depth chart shows.

 

Sure, changes may be made at any position, but the foundation we have, now, looks better on D than 2023.

 

I get that, and we’ve talked about this before, but starting Duran, Raf Man, and Abreu in the OF seems like a risky move to me.

[moonslav59]

I get that, and we’ve talked about this before, but starting Duran, Raf Man, and Abreu in the OF seems like a risky move to me.

 

Risky on O, yes. Better on D.

 

My analysis is assuming Dugo in RF, so Duran, Rafaela and Abreu would share 2 OF slots, which is much less risky. (Rafaela is a RHB, too.)

 

Refsnyder and Yoshida offer some back-up in LF, if the offense gets so bad, we need to replace someone, but then the add on D goes away.

[Old Red]

Risky on O, yes. Better on D.

 

My analysis is assuming Dugo in RF, so Duran, Rafaela and Abreu would share 2 OF slots, which is much less risky. (Rafaela is a RHB, too.)

 

Refsnyder and Yoshida offer some back-up in LF, if the offense gets so bad, we need to replace someone, but then the add on D goes away.

 

If Dugo is still there I can’t see Duran, Raf Man, and Abreu still all on the club, and especially if Duvall, or someone similar gets added.

[mvp 78]

If we add 2-3 SP'ers, our pen will have 8-9 arms that are good neough to not need a lefty replacing them.

 

IF they can stay healthy through ST.

[moonslav59]

If Dugo is still there I can’t see Duran, Raf Man, and Abreu still all on the club, and especially if Duvall, or someone similar gets added.

 

If Yoshida goes to DH, there is room for all 3.

 

Agreed, if Duvall is added, someone goes, and I think it would be Dugo, with Duran as the second choice. Even if we trade Refsnyder, there is not enough playing time for Duran, Raf, Abreu, Duvall and Dugo. I guess we could start Raf or Abreu in AAA and see what happens, but yes- all 5 on the 26 is not happening.

 

With Yoshida at DH, and Duvall replacing Dugo & Ref, we could make this a rough goal:

 

Innings:

 

LF:

1000 Duran

300 Abreu

100 Yoshida

 

CF

1000 Rafaela

400 Abreu

 

RF

1100 Duvall

300 Abreu

 

Basically, Duran, Rafaela, Abreu and Duvall getting 1000+ innings in the OF,

 

That would be an improvement on D and a dice roll on O.

[Old Red]

Can’t trades be made starting today? How about a big splash from Breslow on day 1!

[notin]

Can’t trades be made starting today? How about a big splash from Breslow on day 1!

 

He needs a partner…

[moonslav59]

I'd like to think our defense could get up to 15th or so, with no major additions made, and without hurting the offense, but who knows?

 

There really is no going down in the rankings from 2023.

OAA

30. BOS -50

29. CIN -36

28. MIA -29

27. LAA -20

26. OAK -19

25. CWS -17

24. BAL -17

23. NYM -13

We were worse than the #27 and #28 teams combined!

We were worse than the #23, 24 and 25 teams combined!

 

Here is a breakdown by position:

Innings/Player/OAA in 2023

 

1B:

1037 Casas -10

289 Turner 0

98 Dalbec 0

 

2B

442 Arroyo -2

357 Valdez -4

209 Urias -3

196 Reyes -2

131 Kike -2

49 Turner -1

(On the surface, Arroyo & Kike's OAA/inning looks better than the others, but not playing Valdez at 2B should make it an overall gain, IMO.)

 

SS

484 Kike -12

314 Story +8

256 Chang +4

208 Reyes +1

90 DHam -2

45 Rafaela -1

(No Kike & DHam turns a net zero SS OAA into a +14 OAA.)

 

3B

1293 Devers -9

57 Turner -4

44 Urias +1

(Maybe we can get more innings from urias at 3B, somehow. He can, at least, take JT's 57 innings.)

 

LF

713 Yoshida -8

347 Refsnyder -2

173 Duran 0

86 Tapia 0

76 Abreu +1

(Big gains possible, here.)

 

CF

557 Duran 0

478 Duvall -4

117 Rafaela +2 (in very few innings)

87 Kike +1

85 Abreu -1

68 Ref 0

39 Tapia 0

(Depends on how much Rafaela plays in CF)

 

RF

1170 Dugo +1

180 Duvall +1

52 Tapia -1

(May not change much, even if we replace Dugo with Duvall, assuming a re-sign.)

 

[Nick]

So Rookie of the Year merits a 31st pick? And second and third place finishers would garner Red Sox extra international draft picks? I know about Casas but does Yoshida qualify here? Is it different for a 'rookie' from another country? Obviously he was not on anyone's top 100 prospect list.

[sk7326]

The Athletic's Top 20 FAs ... a bad class for position players, for depth pitchers fairly interesting

 

1. Shoehei Otani, RHP/DH, 29 years old for 2024 season

2. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B, 28

3. Aaron Nola, RHP, 31

4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP (NPB), 25

5. Sonny Gray, RHP, 33

6. Jordan Montgomery, LHP, 31

7. Blake Snell, LHP, 31

8. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, 31

9. Matt Chapman, 3B, 31

10. Lee Jung-hoo, CF (KBO), 25

11. Shota Imanaga, LHP (NPB), 30

12. Kyle Hendricks, RHP, 34

13. Max Kepler, OF, 31

14. Jeimer Candelario, 3B, 30

15. Rhys Hopkins, 1B, 31

16. Jorge Soler, OF, 32

17. Seth Lugo, RHP, 34

18. Mike Clevinger, RHP, 33

19. Kevin Kiermayer, CF, 34

20. Michael Wacha, RHP, 32

[moonslav59]

So Rookie of the Year merits a 31st pick? And second and third place finishers would garner Red Sox extra international draft picks? I know about Casas but does Yoshida qualify here? Is it different for a 'rookie' from another country? Obviously he was not on anyone's top 100 prospect list.

 

I found these odds on Aug 30th:

Gunnar Henderson (BAL): -700

Triston Casas (BOS): +750

Tanner Bibee (CLE): +1500

Masataka Yoshida (BOS): +1500

Josh Jung (TEX): +4500

[moonslav59]

The Athletic's Top 20 FAs ... a bad class for position players, for depth pitchers fairly interesting

 

1. Shoehei Otani, RHP/DH, 29 years old for 2024 season

2. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B, 28

3. Aaron Nola, RHP, 31

4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP (NPB), 25

5. Sonny Gray, RHP, 33

6. Jordan Montgomery, LHP, 31

7. Blake Snell, LHP, 31

8. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, 31

9. Matt Chapman, 3B, 31

10. Lee Jung-hoo, CF (KBO), 25

11. Shota Imanaga, LHP (NPB), 30

12. Kyle Hendricks, RHP, 34

13. Max Kepler, OF, 31

14. Jeimer Candelario, 3B, 30

15. Rhys Hopkins, 1B, 31

16. Jorge Soler, OF, 32

17. Seth Lugo, RHP, 34

18. Mike Clevinger, RHP, 33

19. Kevin Kiermayer, CF, 34

20. Michael Wacha, RHP, 32

 

Soler is a nice RH'd bat but is another DH/LF type we don't need.

[notin]

Soler is a nice RH'd bat but is another DH/LF type we don't need.

 

What about Candelario?

[harmony]

So Rookie of the Year merits a 31st pick? And second and third place finishers would garner Red Sox extra international draft picks? I know about Casas but does Yoshida qualify here? Is it different for a 'rookie' from another country? Obviously he was not on anyone's top 100 prospect list.

Masataka Yoshida was No. 87 on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list heading into the 2023 season:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=yoshid002mas

 

With 0.6 fWAR this season Yoshida ranked 20th among rookie American League hitters:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=2&postseason=&pos=all

 

Another 19 rookie American League pitchers exceeded Yoshida's 0.6 fWAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=pit&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=2&postseason=&pos=all

[sk7326]

Soler is a nice RH'd bat but is another DH/LF type we don't need.

 

Further down the list, for a RHB someone like Teoscar Hernandez could make sense as a bounceback play.

[sk7326]

So Rookie of the Year merits a 31st pick? And second and third place finishers would garner Red Sox extra international draft picks? I know about Casas but does Yoshida qualify here? Is it different for a 'rookie' from another country? Obviously he was not on anyone's top 100 prospect list.

 

Casas is the best option we have. That said, it will be hard to move past Henderson and Bibee.

[Nick]

Casas is the best option we have. That said, it will be hard to move past Henderson and Bibee.

 

If he finishes third, he gets us an international pick?

[moonslav59]

Further down the list, for a RHB someone like Teoscar Hernandez could make sense as a bounceback play.

 

I see him as another DH/LF type.

[moonslav59]

If he finishes third, he gets us an international pick?

 

At the risk of sounding dumb, what if the International draft?

 

I thought teams just signed guys and had a certain bonus pool.

[moonslav59]

Casas is the best option we have. That said, it will be hard to move past Henderson and Bibee.

 

3rd place gets something, I hear.

[moonslav59]

How about keeping Dugo and trading:

 

Mayer & Duran

for

Reynolds, Keller & Bednar

 

Sign an ace.

 

Maybe trade Jansen & Pivetta for a better SP. (BTV accepts just Jansen for Javier or Urquidy.)

[Hugh2]

Soler is a nice RH'd bat but is another DH/LF type we don't need.

 

It feels like everyone is a left fielder. And here we have a likely GG right fielder for one more year with an average offense. That's a rock on your roster. Not your #3 hitter but you plug him in RF and go look to upgrade elsewhere.

 

I get the desire to trade him. I get the argument, and I don't 100% dispute it. I just prefer to keep Alex for one more year.

[Old Red]

It feels like everyone is a left fielder. And here we have a likely GG right fielder for one more year with an average offense. That's a rock on your roster. Not your #3 hitter but you plug him in RF and go look to upgrade elsewhere.

 

I get the desire to trade him. I get the argument, and I don't 100% dispute it. I just prefer to keep Alex for one more year.

 

I wouldn’t trade Dugo just for the sake of trading him. He will be on his last contract yarrow before hitting FA, so that may be a good thing.