A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Plus them not trading Jansen in’24.

 

And we thought Breslow might be different from Bloom.

[Bellhorn04]

Trade him at the deadline no matter what the standings say.

 

 

Am I the only poster that remembers that post and gets this reference?

 

Probably so.

[notin]

probably should have looked at trading him this past one

 

I didn’t mind the not selling. But when it was coupled with the not buying, that’s a different story…

[Old Red]

I didn’t mind the not selling. But when it was coupled with the not buying, that’s a different story…

 

I don’t believe that will be a problem in 2024, and the Red Sox will be strictly BUYERS.

[mvp 78]

Probably so.

 

Then I guess I'll stop posting about it. Though most of my posts are usually only to entertain me anyway.

[mvp 78]

I don’t believe that will be a problem in 2024, and the Red Sox will be strictly BUYERS.

 

Or just figure out the roster in the offseason?

[Old Red]

Or just figure out the roster in the offseason?

 

I’m all for trading Jansen if they could come up with someone younger who would be around longer.

[Bellhorn04]

I’m all for trading Jansen if they could come up with someone younger who would be around longer.

 

As would we all. But for now I think we'd better focus on the rotation.

[moonslav59]

Or just figure out the roster in the offseason?

 

How much tinkering does it really need?

 

I know I've been talking a lot about how much the 40 man roster and farm seem to have been improved, significantly under Bloom, but we still lack excellent and all around players, as well as pitchers that can go 170+ IP, consistently.

 

It seems we have a bunch of decent to good players, some with a major flaw to their game, but still with net plus value. We could obviously use some upgrades at several positions not thought of as "high need areas."

 

With the difference between "fringe contenders," as many probably felt AZ was, all year and at the start of the playoff, and the best of the best not all the wide, do you think it is unreasonable to think we are just 3-4 major additions away from being serious contenders?

 

Maybe two solid and dependable SP'ers, a big RHB at 2B or CF (RF, if we trade an OF'er) and maybe another upgrade somewhere.

 

IMO, getting 3 SP'ers and bringing back Duvall, gets us real close to being serious.

 

Gray

Montgomery

Morton

Duvall

 

I think we can do this and stay below the second tax line, but we may need to trade Dugo, Urias and say bye-bye to Joely.

 

[Old Red]

As would we all. But for now I think we'd better focus on the rotation.

 

True the BP is pretty well set, and could be even deeper if some of the guys who finished in the rotation go back to the BP. Starting pitching, starting pitching, and more starting pitching.

[mvp 78]

How much tinkering does it really need?

 

I know I've been talking a lot about how much the 40 man roster and farm seem to have been improved, significantly under Bloom, but we still lack excellent and all around players, as well as pitchers that can go 170+ IP, consistently.

 

It seems we have a bunch of decent to good players, some with a major flaw to their game, but still with net plus value. We could obviously use some upgrades at several positions not thought of as "high need areas."

 

With the difference between "fringe contenders," as many probably felt AZ was, all year and at the start of the playoff, and the best of the best not all the wide, do you think it is unreasonable to think we are just 3-4 major additions away from being serious contenders?

 

Maybe two solid and dependable SP'ers, a big RHB at 2B or CF (RF, if we trade an OF'er) and maybe another upgrade somewhere.

 

IMO, getting 3 SP'ers and bringing back Duvall, gets us real close to being serious.

 

Gray

Montgomery

Morton

Duvall

 

I think we can do this and stay below the second tax line, but we may need to trade Dugo, Urias and say bye-bye to Joely.

 

 

1. Need at least 2 starters.

2. Figure out if Story is a 2B or SS and find a plan for the other position.

3. Sign Austin Hedges to replace Reese McGuire?

4. Where/how to add the RH bat? Duvall or trade?

5. Trade Verdugo as part of #2 or #4?

6. Who is starting CF? Is Rafaela going to be glove first CFer or UTIL guy in '24? Just give fulltime reps to Duran until Rafaela earns it?

7. Yoshida to become fulltime DH or is that part of a DH rotation with #4?

8. LH reliever?

[Old Red]

1. Need at least 2 starters.

2. Figure out if Story is a 2B or SS and find a plan for the other position.

3. Sign Austin Hedges to replace Reese McGuire?

4. Where/how to add the RH bat? Duvall or trade?

5. Trade Verdugo as part of #2 or #4?

6. Who is starting CF? Is Rafaela going to be glove first CFer or UTIL guy in '24? Just give fulltime reps to Duran until Rafaela earns it?

7. Yoshida to become fulltime DH or is that part of a DH rotation with #4?

8. LH reliever?

Story has already been figured out as the SS, and has been since Bogey left town.

[notin]

As would we all. But for now I think we'd better focus on the rotation.

 

The solutions are potentially linked.

 

We have some starters that we feel belong in the bullpen. And presumably if the Sox do trade Jansen, it won’t be for cash…

[notin]

Story has already been figured out as the SS, and has been since Bogey left town.

 

Story is certainly the front runner for the job, especially since it’s typically easier to find a good 2b as opposed to a good SS…

[Old Red]

Story is certainly the front runner for the job, especially since it’s typically easier to find a good 2b as opposed to a good SS…

 

He not just the front runner. He’s it.

[notin]

1. Need at least 2 starters.

2. Figure out if Story is a 2B or SS and find a plan for the other position.

3. Sign Austin Hedges to replace Reese McGuire?

4. Where/how to add the RH bat? Duvall or trade?

5. Trade Verdugo as part of #2 or #4?

6. Who is starting CF? Is Rafaela going to be glove first CFer or UTIL guy in '24? Just give fulltime reps to Duran until Rafaela earns it?

7. Yoshida to become fulltime DH or is that part of a DH rotation with #4?

8. LH reliever?

 

The one area where the Sox were far and away worst in MLB was defense. DRS ranked them 24th in MLB, and that was their most favorable defensive ranking. OAA not only had them 30th, but also had them very, very far behind the team ranked 29th.

 

Moving Yoshida to DH ain’t gonna fix this on its own…

[notin]

He not just the front runner. He’s it.

 

Unless Breslow decides he isn’t. I won’t speak for Breslow; I just acknowledge he makes the calls…

[Old Red]

Unless Breslow decides he isn’t. I won’t speak for Breslow; I just acknowledge he makes the calls…

 

Think what you want, but I said it a year ago when many on here was saying Story should stay at 2B, and the Red Sox needed to go out, and get a SS that the plan was Story was going to be the SS, which only changed when he got hurt.

[Old Red]

The one area where the Sox were far and away worst in MLB was defense. DRS ranked them 24th in MLB, and that was their most favorable defensive ranking. OAA not only had them 30th, but also had them very, very far behind the team ranked 29th.

 

Moving Yoshida to DH ain’t gonna fix this on its own…

Unless Raffy, and Casas improve on D next year that part won’t change is right.

[mvp 78]

Story has already been figured out as the SS, and has been since Bogey left town.

 

It was figured out under the old CBO in 43 games?

[mvp 78]

The one area where the Sox were far and away worst in MLB was defense. DRS ranked them 24th in MLB, and that was their most favorable defensive ranking. OAA not only had them 30th, but also had them very, very far behind the team ranked 29th.

 

Moving Yoshida to DH ain’t gonna fix this on its own…

 

Having Story play a full season at 2B or SS will be a huge help. Another year of development for Casas will help. Additional playing time for Rafaela in CF will help. Swapping Yoshida for Duran would also be a pretty big help in LF. Signing Hedges to play 50% of the games would also help. I listed a lot of fixes in my post.

[mvp 78]

Think what you want, but I said it a year ago when many on here was saying Story should stay at 2B, and the Red Sox needed to go out, and get a SS that the plan was Story was going to be the SS, which only changed when he got hurt.

 

That's Bloom's plan.

[Old Red]

That's Bloom's plan.

 

We’ll see if that plan changes, which I doubt, because most likely it was Cora’s plan too.

[Old Red]

It was figured out under the old CBO in 43 games?

 

It was figured out before the 43 games were played, and I bet Cora’s decision more than anybody.

[Hugh2]

That's Bloom's plan.

 

I think the plan was for Story to play 2nd. When Bogaerts left the plan was for him to play SS for 1 to 1.5 years and then Mayer takes over.

[moonslav59]

The one area where the Sox were far and away worst in MLB was defense. DRS ranked them 24th in MLB, and that was their most favorable defensive ranking. OAA not only had them 30th, but also had them very, very far behind the team ranked 29th.

 

Moving Yoshida to DH ain’t gonna fix this on its own…

 

I fully understand your issue with the idea that our current players will simply just "get better." To assume that can be a big mistake. Duran got better- Casas and Devers did not. Let's just assume nobody gets better or worse and see what we have...

 

That being said, I think you are minimizing the overview of our 2024 defense vs our 2023 defense by just talking Yoshida to DH, as if that's the main improvement.

 

Having Story at SS for a full season is a big plus. Not having Kike at SS for any games makes SS a double plus gain. (It could literally go from worst to first, overnight, with no roster additions.)

 

Yoshida to DH, in theory, improves more than LF. Not only are Duran and Refsnyder better than Yoshida in LF, keeping Duran out of CF, by proxy, improves our CF D, too. If it ends up being Rafaela, it would be a major gain on D. If it's Duvall or Abreu, it should still be an improvement over Duran in CF. More than half our CF innings, this year went to Duran, Refsnyder, Abreu and Tapia. Add Duvall, and it's about 86% of the innings. (14% to Rafaela and Kike.) If we can get 85% of the CF innings to Rafaela and Abreu, I see a big gain on D at a key "up-the-middle" position.

 

I'm not sure a full season of Urias and Reyes at 2B will be an improvement on D, but Arroyo led all Sox players in innings at 2B. E Valdezz was 2nd. I can't imagine the two we have now doing worse than they did. (Arroyo + EValdez had 799 ot 1430 innings at 2B. Add Turner, Wong and Bobby D's totals and it's 854/1430 or 60%.) Why can't 2b be a greater improvement on D than LF?

 

Now, I'm going to go back on my initial promise. I do think Wong can and should improve on defense as he gains experience. It is very common for catchers to improve until at least 30. He was excellent on runner control, but needs to improve on blocking pitches off the mark and maybe how to handle the staff to maximize results.

 

I will not project Casas will improve. I tried that with Dalbec.

 

Better at SS, 2B, LF, CF and maybe C with no new roster additions.

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

1. Need at least 2 starters.

2. Figure out if Story is a 2B or SS and find a plan for the other position.

3. Sign Austin Hedges to replace Reese McGuire?

4. Where/how to add the RH bat? Duvall or trade?

5. Trade Verdugo as part of #2 or #4?

6. Who is starting CF? Is Rafaela going to be glove first CFer or UTIL guy in '24? Just give fulltime reps to Duran until Rafaela earns it?

7. Yoshida to become fulltime DH or is that part of a DH rotation with #4?

8. LH reliever?

 

Thanks for the thoughtful response.

 

1. Yes 2 SP'ers, but I'd add "solid & dependable" or three decent & dependable.

2. I'm not sure Breslow will move Story to 2B, and Cora might be the main guy to decide this, but I'm kind of okay with Story at SS (Reyes as sub) and Urias/Reyes/EValdez at 2B to start 2024.

3. If adding Hedges worsens who we sign to pitch, I'd just stick with McGuire and hope Teel jumps levels.

4. Agreed.

5. I think Dugo should go.

6. I'd be fine starting the year with CF: Rafaela/Abreu and RF: Duvall/Abreu

7. Near FT DH. Only play him in LF, if you want to give Raffy a rest at 3B by DH'ing him.

8. Most of our RP'ers do pretty well vs LHBs. I don't see this as a major priority, but still would be helpful.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Unless Raffy, and Casas improve on D next year that part won’t change is right.

 

You don't see an improvement on D at SS, 2B & CF, next year?

[moonslav59]

I think the plan was for Story to play 2nd. When Bogaerts left the plan was for him to play SS for 1 to 1.5 years and then Mayer takes over.

 

It sure seemed like Bloom was surprised when Bogey bolted, but I'm not convinced. Still, that does seem like that was the plan, when we signed Story- despite my wishes they flip Bogey to 2B.

[Old Red]

You don't see an improvement on D at SS, 2B & CF, next year?

 

First no one knows outside of SS who is going to be playing at any of those positions next year. I was just mainly talking about 1B, and 3B.