A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Hugh2]

At the end of the day, the OF might be Duran in LF, Abreu and Rafaela platooning in CF, and Verdugo in RF…

 

Or, Abreu is platooning LF with Duran. Probably depends on how well Duran is hitting.

[mvp 78]

At the end of the day, the OF might be Duran in LF, Abreu and Rafaela platooning in CF, and Verdugo in RF…

 

More than likely.

[mvp 78]

If we plan on going above the luxury tax line, I hope we do a heck of a lot better than Morton. We need multiple starting pitchers, not another one year flyer on an aging guy.

 

Only so many pitchers that can be acquired. I think some expectations need to be tempered.

[Hugh2]

Only so many pitchers that can be acquired. I think some expectations need to be tempered.

 

Fair BUT, I expect someone younger than 40 years old to signed to be a starting pitcher on a team that desperately needs talented starting pitching.

 

Morton is good, but at his age, it's highly probable we are just signing Kluber 2.0

 

 

It's funny how we always talk about not wanting to sign HIGH END, ELITE pitching talent because the back end of those deals may get ugly, then we turn around and talk about not signing the best pitchers in lieu of signing aging veterans to short term deal and ONLY paying for their aging seasons.

 

I Know it's not apples to oranges, but that's the EXACT kind of move I do not want to see.

 

Honeslty Kluber was one of Blooms biggest blunders, and I don't think in a vacuum that move alone was a bad move, what was bad was not constructing a starting pitching staff as a whole and expecting Kluber to be your big signing. In the same spirit, if the Sox had a more stable and talented starting rotation I'd love to sign a guy like Morton. But given the lack of talent, and sheer number of guys who can even go 5 consistently on this team, I want to see someone closer to their 20's than their 40's being signed.

[moonslav59]

If we plan on going above the luxury tax line, I hope we do a heck of a lot better than Morton. We need multiple starting pitchers, not another one year flyer on an aging guy.

 

Ummm, I also added Burnes and Yamamoto.

 

Morton is no Kluber or Richards. His 163+ IP over the last 3 years would have led the Sox in IP in 2023.

 

Last 3 year average:

174 IP

3.77 ERA (114 ERA+)

3.75 FIP

10.4 K/9

 

Kluber's previous 3 years average

120 IP (not counting 1 IP in short 2020 season)

4.15 ERA (93 ERA+)

3.66 FIP

8.2 K/9

 

Richards

64 IP (not counting 9 IP in 2020)

4.09 ERA (103 ERA+)

4.29 FIP

9.5 K/9

[moonslav59]

Fair BUT, I expect someone younger than 40 years old to signed to be a starting pitcher on a team that desperately needs talented starting pitching.

 

Morton is good, but at his age, it's highly probable we are just signing Kluber 2.0

 

Burnes and Yamamoto aren't "someone else?"

 

They both might be top 5-7 in available SP'ers this winter.

[Hugh2]

Ummm, I also added Burnes and Yamamoto.

 

Morton is no Kluber or Richards. His 163+ IP over the last 3 years would have led the Sox in IP in 2023.

 

Last 3 year average:

174 IP

3.77 ERA (114 ERA+)

3.75 FIP

10.4 K/9

 

Kluber's previous 3 years average

120 IP (not counting 1 IP in short 2020 season)

4.15 ERA (93 ERA+)

3.66 FIP

8.2 K/9

 

Richards

64 IP (not counting 9 IP in 2020)

4.09 ERA (103 ERA+)

4.29 FIP

9.5 K/9

 

OMG I can't believe I missed that. Well in the spirit of my now completely obsolete counterpoint to MVP, I actually really like that. I like a Morton signing that is on TOP of a Yama/Burnes rotation.

[Bellhorn04]

Much depends on how stupid the bidding gets for Yamamoto. It could get very stupid indeed with many of the big players involved.

[moonslav59]

It's funny how we always talk about not wanting to sign HIGH END, ELITE pitching talent because the back end of those deals may get ugly, then we turn around and talk about not signing the best pitchers in lieu of signing aging veterans to short term deal and ONLY paying for their aging seasons.

 

I Know it's not apples to oranges, but that's the EXACT kind of move I do not want to see.

 

Honeslty Kluber was one of Blooms biggest blunders, and I don't think in a vacuum that move alone was a bad move, what was bad was not constructing a starting pitching staff as a whole and expecting Kluber to be your big signing. In the same spirit, if the Sox had a more stable and talented starting rotation I'd love to sign a guy like Morton. But given the lack of talent, and sheer number of guys who can even go 5 consistently on this team, I want to see someone closer to their 20's than their 40's being signed.

 

I'm not locked into Morton, but I was thinking we just extended devers for 10, I was giving Yamamoto 10 years and expect us to extend Burnes, too. Balancing that with one 1 yr deal seems logical. We could also spend less per year on a longer deal for someone like Wacha or on one from 30-31 year olds ERod, Montgomery, Giolito or Snell.

[moonslav59]

OMG I can't believe I missed that. Well in the spirit of my now completely obsolete counterpoint to MVP, I actually really like that. I like a Morton signing that is on TOP of a Yama/Burnes rotation.

 

I figured you missed it.

 

Actually, I'd be fine with just Burnes and Yamamoto, and we'd stay under the second line.

 

We could take a flyer on someone like Severino or Flaherty, but for the 5 slot, not a top 3 slot in the rotation. (Insurance for Sale, and allows us to keep one more of these guys in the pen: Houck, Whitlock, Crawford or Pivetta.)

[Hugh2]

I'm not locked into Morton, but I was thinking we just extended devers for 10, I was giving Yamamoto 10 years and expect us to extend Burnes, too. Balancing that with one 1 yr deal seems logical. We could also spend less per year on a longer deal for someone like Wacha or on one from 30-31 year olds ERod, Montgomery, Giolito or Snell.

 

A 2-3 year deal works too, also not opposed to staying right under the luxury tax and blowing past it next year. Next year has some good pitchers too. I still want at least 1 elite arm this year.

[mvp 78]

OMG I can't believe I missed that. Well in the spirit of my now completely obsolete counterpoint to MVP, I actually really like that. I like a Morton signing that is on TOP of a Yama/Burnes rotation.

 

I figured a Burnes, Yamamoto, Morton offseason was a bit of a stretch, but that's just me? That's why I said temper the expectations...

[moonslav59]

A 2-3 year deal works too, also not opposed to staying right under the luxury tax and blowing past it next year. Next year has some good pitchers too. I still want at least 1 elite arm this year.

 

We need to hit on our next longterm signing, which really has to be a SP'er.

Yoshida

Story

____?

 

We can't go into 2025 with a 3rd questionable or deadweight deal on the books.

 

Some are even questioning the Devers deal, despite his 126 OPS+, which is higher than his career OPS+ (124.)

[mvp 78]

We need to hit on our next longterm signing, which really has to be a SP'er.

Yoshida

Story

____?

 

We can't go into 2025 with a 3rd questionable or deadweight deal on the books.

 

Some are even questioning the Devers deal, despite his 126 OPS+, which is higher than his career OPS+ (124.)

 

Chapman seems like the third amigo in that group.

[moonslav59]

I figured a Burnes, Yamamoto, Morton offseason was a bit of a stretch, but that's just me? That's why I said temper the expectations...

 

That was not my "expectation," but it does fall within a possible financial expectation on winter spending.

 

Trading Dugo's $9M (plus prospects) for $15M Burnes gets us an ace for $6M.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

'23 AL averages per 600 PA: 19 HR 69 RBI .247 BA .317 OBP/.411 Slug/.728 OPS

 

Without pro-rating every guy on the roster (the Sox had three with 600 PA), there were four with at least 19 HRs, three with 69 RBI, but seven who hit .247 or better, and got on base and had a higher-than-average OPS... the skillfull seven: Casas, Devers, Duvall, Duran, Turner, Yoshida, Verdugo.

 

The first five had at least .800 OPS, including three who qualified: Casas, Devers and Turner. The first two guys can certainly improve, and hopefully, so can Masa. JT is probably a goner, and may not be replaced from outside the org -- if the bulk of spending is appropriately on pitching.

 

Moon asked if a few new studs at the top of the rotation, added to most of the returning roster, is enough to win. Depends on... winning what? Another handful of games to nab a wild card? Maybe... depending on the progress of younger players. Improving the pitching of a last-place loser more than likely makes them an average team.

 

Enough to win it all? Very doubtful, unless you're assuming Martin and Jansen at a year closer to 40 will not regress nor get injured, and automatically repeat their '23 successes.

[moonslav59]

'23 AL averages per 600 PA: 19 HR 69 RBI .247 BA .317 OBP/.411 Slug/.728 OPS

 

Without pro-rating every guy on the roster (the Sox had three with 600 PA), there were four with at least 19 HRs, three with 69 RBI, but seven who hit .247 or better, and got on base and had a higher-than-average OPS... the skillfull seven: Casas, Devers, Duvall, Duran, Turner, Yoshida, Verdugo.

 

The first five had at least .800 OPS, including three who qualified: Casas, Devers and Turner. The first two guys can certainly improve, and hopefully, so can Masa. JT is probably a goner, and may not be replaced from outside the org -- if the bulk of spending is appropriately on pitching.

 

Moon asked if a few new studs at the top of the rotation, added to most of the returning roster, is enough to win. Depends on... winning what? Another handful of games to nab a wild card? Maybe... depending on the progress of younger players. Improving the pitching of a last-place loser more than likely makes them an average team.

 

Enough to win it all? Very doubtful, unless you're assuming Martin and Jansen at a year closer to 40 will not regress nor get injured, and automatically repeat their '23 successes.

 

I don't think Yamamoto and Gray makes us a top 4-6 ring contender. It likely just makes us a strong playoff contender- maybe a favorite to win a WC slot. For those who believe in crapshoots, maybe that makes us a ring contender. Not me.

 

If we add 3 SP'ers and bring Duvall back, we may be close to a top 5-8 contender. Maybe top 4, if almost everything goes right.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't think Yamamoto and Gray makes us a top 4-6 ring contender. It likely just makes us a strong playoff contender- maybe a favorite to win a WC slot. For those who believe in crapshoots, maybe that makes us a ring contender. Not me.

 

If we add 3 SP'ers and bring Duvall back, we may be close to a top 5-8 contender. Maybe top 4, if almost everything goes right.

 

... but it almost never does. The Mets spend kajillions, but everyone kinda knew they were cooked even before the season when Diaz blew out his knee in the WBC.

[notin]

I don't think Yamamoto and Gray makes us a top 4-6 ring contender. It likely just makes us a strong playoff contender- maybe a favorite to win a WC slot. For those who believe in crapshoots, maybe that makes us a ring contender. Not me.

 

If we add 3 SP'ers and bring Duvall back, we may be close to a top 5-8 contender. Maybe top 4, if almost everything goes right.

 

Your standards are far too high.

 

Bring a playoff contender is all that matters. Last week you (and most) would have put Atlanta and LA in the top 4-6 ring contender category, and probably left out Philly and Arizona. And certainly if you didn’t rank Philly last among the 6 NL postseason teams last year, then your system was flawed.

 

But the reality is - there is no magic formula and no ranking that matters. There is a should have parity in baseball and just getting into the postseason is all that matters. (Although getting a bye is nice.)…

[notin]

... but it almost never does. The Mets spend kajillions, but everyone kinda knew they were cooked even before the season when Diaz blew out his knee in the WBC.

 

But the Mets, who has fewer blown saves than all but 2 teams (one of which was Boston), had other problems Diaz was not going to solve. Namely they rarely took leads into the ninth inning…

[Bellhorn04]

Your standards are far too high.

 

Bring a playoff contender is all that matters. Last week you (and most) would have put Atlanta and LA in the top 4-6 ring contender category, and probably left out Philly and Arizona. And certainly if you didn’t rank Philly last among the 6 NL postseason teams last year, then your system was flawed.

 

But the reality is - there is no magic formula and no ranking that matters. There is a should have parity in baseball and just getting into the postseason is all that matters. (Although getting a bye is nice.)…

 

Now you have to wonder if the new bye system has raised the crapshootification level even higher, based on what happened to the O's, Braves and Dodgers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But the Mets, who has fewer blown saves than all but 2 teams (one of which was Boston), had other problems Diaz was not going to solve. Namely they rarely took leads into the ninth inning…

 

But no freaking trumpets! Where is your sense of joy and jubiliation... Scherzer and Verlander tried to start a booktalk club, and all the younger players thought they meant to compare gambling sites and parlay odds.

[moonslav59]

Your standards are far too high.

 

Bring a playoff contender is all that matters. Last week you (and most) would have put Atlanta and LA in the top 4-6 ring contender category, and probably left out Philly and Arizona. And certainly if you didn’t rank Philly last among the 6 NL postseason teams last year, then your system was flawed.

 

But the reality is - there is no magic formula and no ranking that matters. There is a should have parity in baseball and just getting into the postseason is all that matters. (Although getting a bye is nice.)…

 

I still feel better thinking our team is top 4 in caliber. Plus, you build for that, knowing injuries or unexpected downturns can still make you a top 8 and a playoff team, where "anything can happen."

 

Kinda what the Seattle GM let slip.

 

[notin]

But no freaking trumpets! Where is your sense of joy and jubiliation... Scherzer and Verlander tried to start a booktalk club, and all the younger players thought they meant to compare gambling sites and parlay odds.

 

No trumpets? Have you been watching the postseason? Those things are everywhere!

[mvp 78]

That was not my "expectation," but it does fall within a possible financial expectation on winter spending.

 

Trading Dugo's $9M (plus prospects) for $15M Burnes gets us an ace for $6M.

 

 

Whose expectation?

[notin]

Or, Abreu is platooning LF with Duran. Probably depends on how well Duran is hitting.

 

A lefty-lefty platoon?

[Bellhorn04]

A lefty-lefty platoon?

 

We're innovators here, man.

[notin]

We're innovators here, man.

 

Let’s get back to some basics and get some folks who can field…

[Dipre]

Let’s get back to some basics and get some folks who can field…

 

As long as they can also hit, i.e. not Chapman.

[Nick]

Some of you have unrealistic expectations.

 

You want a team not only is a playoff contender but more assurance than not that we get to the world series.

 

I don't see 2024 as a make or break season.

 

We have core group of younger players. Obviously it needs big pieces in starting rotation.

 

I just want a team that's more competitive than this year's team.

 

We maybe two or three years away.

 

It took Texas two years of roster additions to get to where they are......

 

I'm not sure if the Orioles or the Dodgers fans are just happy that they won 100 games. I wouldn't be. I want the World Series title. We're not good enough right now. We need several additions and maturation from several youngsters.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Nick