A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

Player-coach?

 

It’s been a while since MLB has had one. We’re due…

[mvp 78]

It’s been a while since MLB has had one. We’re due…

 

Was Pete Rose the last one?

[Bellhorn04]

Was Pete Rose the last one?

 

I'm betting he was.

[mvp 78]

Molitor, Larkin and Konerko were considered for player-coach roles at various points, but none of them actually got hired.

[notin]

I'm betting he was.

 

Rose was the last player-manager, if you count that. Reportedly both Barry Larkin and Paul Konerko were offered chances for that role but turned them down.

 

The last player-coach (who didn’t manage) I can think of was Ron Schueler, who was a relief pitcher for the 1979 White Sox and also the pitching coach under player-manager Don Kessinger…

[notin]

Molitor, Larkin and Konerko were considered for player-coach roles at various points, but none of them actually got hired.

 

Didn’t know about Molitor, but it’s not a surprise…

[moonslav59]

In my opinion, our winter should be dedicated to improving our weakest or most questionable positions. Some positions may be somewhat questionable or have a weak defensive element to it, but they do not come close to what positions are our greatest need areas. At the risk of sounding repetitive, here is my take:

 

Highest priority areas:

 

1. SP1: We need an ace or two very solid #2 types. This is so clearly our #1 need, to me.

2. SP2: If we get an ace for slot #1, this slot could be a solid #3 type, at worst. If we get a solid #2 for the 1 slot, I'd want another solid #2, here.

3. Solid RHB: This could be in CF, 2B or RF, if we trade Dugo. (Maybe Duvall is enough- maybe not.)

4. SP4: I seriously doubt we add 3 solid SP'ers, but to me it would be better than spending on a LH RP and 2B or more depth. It would push Pivetta or Crawford to the pen and make the pen one of the best in MLB.

5. LH RP: I think we don't take Joely's option, and would have limited LHPs in the pen. We do have some RHPs in the pen, who do very well or even better vs LHBs, but it would be helpful to add a solid LH RP'er, if we have resources available.

6. 2nd RHB: See #3, and fill another of the 3 slots listed: 2B, CF or RF, if Dugo is traded.

 

Thinking in reverse, here are our most solid and dependable positions:

3B: Devers (Urias)

1B: Casas (Devers?)

RP2: Martin

RP1: Jansen

Long Relief: Whitlock and 1-2 from Crawford, Houck or Pivetta

RF: Dugo (Abreu) * assuming Dugo is not traded

DH: Yoshida (Devers/Casas/Refsnyder)

SS: Story (Reyes) May be higher on the list, depending on Stroy's health and rebound level.

RP3/4: Winckowski & Schreiber

C: Wong & McGuire (Scott?)

 

Questionable:

LF: Duran-Refsnyder platoon (Yoshida/Abreu)

2B: Urias-Reyes-Evaldez (DHam)

 

High need (in reverse order)

CF: Rafaela-Abreu (Duran)

LH RP: Bernardino/Murphy (Joely?)

SP4: Houck/Crawford/Pivetta (one would be #5)

SP2: _________

SP1: _________

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Let's see how fangraphs ranked our positional values in 2024:

 

Rank out of 30 teams (fWAR)

6th 3B 3.4 (Devers Forevers)

T7th CF (Duvall & Duran, but who in 2024?)

T10th 1B 2.2(6th in batting/29th on D)

15th 2.2 (Yoshida & Co. were 12th on O and 27th on D)

16th DH (Mostly JT)

T19th Catcher 1.1 (dropped off over the last 6-7 weeks)

20th RF (We were higher earlier in the season) The OF as a whole was 9th.

26TH ss 0.2 (we were negative until after Story returned.)

29th 2B -0.9

 

RP: T12th at 4.7 (4th in IP)

SP: T21st at 9.1 (27th in IP)

Overall: 20th at 13.8, just ahead of the Yanks

19th in ERA- an 100

[notin]

In my opinion, our winter should be dedicated to improving our weakest or most questionable positions. Some positions may be somewhat questionable or have a weak defensive element to it, but they do not come close to what positions are our greatest need areas. At the risk of sounding repetitive, here is my take:

 

Highest priority areas:

 

1. SP1: We need an ace or two very solid #2 types. This is so clearly our #1 need, to me.

2. SP2: If we get an ace for slot #1, this slot could be a solid #3 type, at worst. If we get a solid #2 for the 1 slot, I'd want another solid #2, here.

3. Solid RHB: This could be in CF, 2B or RF, if we trade Dugo. (Maybe Duvall is enough- maybe not.)

4. SP4: I seriously doubt we add 3 solid SP'ers, but to me it would be better than spending on a LH RP and 2B or more depth. It would push Pivetta or Crawford to the pen and make the pen one of the best in MLB.

5. LH RP: I think we don't take Joely's option, and would have limited LHPs in the pen. We do have some RHPs in the pen, who do very well or even better vs LHBs, but it would be helpful to add a solid LH RP'er, if we have resources available.

6. 2nd RHB: See #3, and fill another of the 3 slots listed: 2B, CF or RF, if Dugo is traded.

 

Thinking in reverse, here are our most solid and dependable positions:

3B: Devers (Urias)

1B: Casas (Devers?)

RP2: Martin

RP1: Jansen

Long Relief: Whitlock and 1-2 from Crawford, Houck or Pivetta

RF: Dugo (Abreu) * assuming Dugo is not traded

DH: Yoshida (Devers/Casas/Refsnyder)

SS: Story (Reyes) May be higher on the list, depending on Stroy's health and rebound level.

RP3/4: Winckowski & Schreiber

C: Wong & McGuire (Scott?)

 

Questionable:

LF: Duran-Refsnyder platoon (Yoshida/Abreu)

2B: Urias-Reyes-Evaldez (DHam)

 

High need (in reverse order)

CF: Rafaela-Abreu (Duran)

LH RP: Bernardino/Murphy (Joely?)

SP4: Houck/Crawford/Pivetta (one would be #5)

SP2: _________

SP1: _________

 

 

 

 

 

 

The only thing everyone seems to agree on is the need for two starting pitchers.

 

Catcher has not really been touted as an area or potential improvement. And I don’t think anyone would be surprised if it remained untouched.

 

The infield could also go untouched assuming the new head honcho doesn’t want to upgrade the defense. The only question mark is 2b, which could easily just go to Urias. Or some cheaper version of Urias.

 

The OF is an overcrowded mess, even if Duvall doesn’t return. If Yoshida does actually move to DH, the Sox still have Duran, Verdugo, Rafaela, Abreu and Refsnyder and only Refsnyder has a clear role. The Sox could start any of them. Or start Duran and Verdugo and let Abreu and Rafaela start in Worcester. Or trade Duran and Verdugo. Or demote and trade 2. Too many possibilities, with status quo as one them.

 

The bullpen could also already be full. Or someone might move and roles get changed. Lots of possibilities including, again, status quo…

[Bellhorn04]

VerduGOTTAgo.

[moonslav59]

The only thing everyone seems to agree on is the need for two starting pitchers.

 

Catcher has not really been touted as an area or potential improvement. And I don’t think anyone would be surprised if it remained untouched.

 

The infield could also go untouched assuming the new head honcho doesn’t want to upgrade the defense. The only question mark is 2b, which could easily just go to Urias. Or some cheaper version of Urias.

 

The OF is an overcrowded mess, even if Duvall doesn’t return. If Yoshida does actually move to DH, the Sox still have Duran, Verdugo, Rafaela, Abreu and Refsnyder and only Refsnyder has a clear role. The Sox could start any of them. Or start Duran and Verdugo and let Abreu and Rafaela start in Worcester. Or trade Duran and Verdugo. Or demote and trade 2. Too many possibilities, with status quo as one them.

 

The bullpen could also already be full. Or someone might move and roles get changed. Lots of possibilities including, again, status quo…

 

IMO, trying to spread the wealth to possibly slightly upgrade 7-8 slots is the status quo. You get what you pay for, and $10M/1 does not get what it used to get.

 

I understand, we could upgrade at one or two of C, 2B and CF/RF or try and upgrade our defense by adding a corner IF'er and shuffling others around to DH and 1B, but I'm sick of that strategy. I'd put all my apples into 4 signings:

SP1

SP2

RHB (CF or RF- Duvall?)

SP4

 

3 would be okay, if the 2 pitchers signed were aces or near aces. That's a lot of money. I know. We could break the moratorium on top prospect trades and have money left over to spend on just 3 slots, not 4, or add a LH'd RP'er to the bill.

 

We have been moving in the direction of fewer and fewer slot upgrades needed or signed. (I don't count JT replacing JD as spending on a longstanding hole needed to be filled. I count it as trying to just stay even.)

 

The 2020 roster needed about 20-22 slots filled on the 40. and with guys like ERod and Sale missing the whole season (Beni most of it), the 26 man roster change-over was astoundingly high in number.

2019 PA leaders gone in '20

1. Betts

9. Moreland at the '20 deadline

10. Holt

11. Leon

12. Nunez

 

IP Leaders gone:

1. ERod on IL

2. Porcello

3. Sale on IL

4. Price

6. Workman at deadline

9. Velazquez

11. Brewer

12. Cashner

That's half the ML roster needing replacement.

 

By 2021, we added 12, but less to the 40 than 2020.

Kike

Renfroe

Marwin traded mid season/Schwarber added mid season

Cordero

Santana

Pivetta

Richards

Perez

Whitlock

Ottavino

Sawamura

Andriese

That is nearly half the ML roster.

 

Prior to 2022, we added 7-8 (much less than '21)

Story

JBJ

(Pham & McGuire at the deadline)

Wacha

Hill

Strahm

Diekman

Paxton

 

The 2023 winter was largely about replacing Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha/Hill and Strahm. We added about the same as '22: about 6

Yoshida

Turner

Duvall

(Reyes/Urias/Bernardino mid season)

Kluber

Jansen

Martin

 

Let's progress to 3-5.

[moonslav59]

VerduGOTTAgo.

 

I think it's going to happen. We'd save over $10M in arb costs, assuming we don't take back salary with the return player. That gives us some more money to sign a RHB like Duvall, and leaves more to spend on SP'er.

 

Maybe we can get a good LH RP'er for him or add pieces and get someone who can fill one of the 4 major slots I think we need to fill: SP1, SP2, RHB, SP4.

 

Maybe we just trade him for a RHB OF'er of equal value.

 

If we really are intent on leaving Story at SS, and we have Zanetello, Romero and Cespedes further down the road, maybe we will trade Mayer and others for an ace. If we spend a bunch o top of that, we can fill all our major needs.

[Nick]

VerduGOTTAgo.

 

Yep....

[Nick]

Exhibit A Baltimore Orioles

Exhibit B Los Angeles Dodgers

 

100 win season means nothing come playoff time.

 

I for one am happy that the Dodgers lost. Yep, it has to do with Betts.

 

They definitely will go hard after Ohtani.

 

Should we consider reuniting with JD?

[notin]

Exhibit A Baltimore Orioles

Exhibit B Los Angeles Dodgers

 

100 win season means nothing come playoff time.

 

I for one am happy that the Dodgers lost. Yep, it has to do with Betts.

 

They definitely will go hard after Ohtani.

 

Should we consider reuniting with JD?

 

 

No more JD. If the Sox add a bat, that player has to field. Duvall’s OPS was .060 lower and hit 12 fewer home runs in 150 fewer PA. S do not as good with the bat, but at least Duvall is a Gold Glove right fielder…

[mvp 78]

VerduGOTTAgo.

 

Just not during the season though?

[mvp 78]

Exhibit A Baltimore Orioles

Exhibit B Los Angeles Dodgers

 

100 win season means nothing come playoff time.

 

I for one am happy that the Dodgers lost. Yep, it has to do with Betts.

 

They definitely will go hard after Ohtani.

 

Should we consider reuniting with JD?

 

Sox had a big problem with too many DH's this season. Signing JD would be a mistake.

 

They need to treat Masa as if he's the DH going forward.

[mvp 78]

No more JD. If the Sox add a bat, that player has to field. Duvall’s OPS was .060 lower and hit 12 fewer home runs in 150 fewer PA. S do not as good with the bat, but at least Duvall is a Gold Glove right fielder…

 

His glove isn't as good anymore, but he has the position versatility of coming up as a corner IFer. I think he could play all over the place if they wanted him to.

[moonslav59]

It's hard to know how good his D in RF is, now. He's surely not at GG level, but watching him in CF, this year makes it hard to relate to his RF skill set.

 

I'm not thinking he would be worse than Verdugo, but maybe not better, either. I would not like to see him in CF, anymore, but as an emergency CF'er, maybe. I see RF and maybe 1B as the two major spots for him. I'd say LF, too, but we already have 3-4 of those.

 

I just wonder if his bat is enough to make up for the loss of JT. Hopefully, Story can make up the difference, and Rafaela offers some hopes there, too.

 

If we only add Duvall to the everyday ML roster, I'd be okay, but we will need improvements at a few positions to make the offense be a significant plus in 2024. It was about average in 2023.

 

Here some possibilities...

More time from Story, Duran and Duvall.

The emergence of Rafaela, Abreu and EValdez.

Improved offense at 2B (Urias/Reyes/Valdez)

Improvement from Casas and our catchers.

Devers goes ballistic.

 

[mvp 78]

Problem is that signing Duvall isn't "adding" to the Sox, it's just not taking away.

[moonslav59]

Problem is that signing Duvall isn't "adding" to the Sox, it's just not taking away.

 

Indeed, unless you think he will almost certainly not get hurt, all year.

[Hugh2]

I really like Duval, I think he fits this roster perfectly.

 

It’s perfectly conceivable his 2024 is better and much more productive than his 2023.

 

Despite that last statement, I’d be very weary of him staying healthy all year in a starters role.

 

I think Hader would be a good replacement. Better defense and just as good production vs. LHP. Duval is fine defensively and might cost less in years and money. I’m fine with either.

 

The only solid starter I see is Verdugo. Everyone else is either too young, still unproven, or has platoon concerns.

 

It’s perfectly conceivable that Duran/Abreu/Rafaela/Refsnyder or some combination of those can become at least 1 viable defender, maybe you get two from that group with clean health and if platoons are used right.

 

Fact remains however that outfield depth is very thin. In a perfect world a power hitting outfield bat who can RF emerges.

 

But in a year where it makes so much more sense to buy pitching we may end up rolling with a youth movement in the outfield

 

Still I see the Sox signing a bat in the OF, Duval back on a 1 year makes the most sense.

[moonslav59]

I really like Duval, I think he fits this roster perfectly.

 

It’s perfectly conceivable his 2024 is better and much more productive than his 2023.

 

Despite that last statement, I’d be very weary of him staying healthy all year in a starters role.

 

I think Hader would be a good replacement. Better defense and just as good production vs. LHP. Duval is fine defensively and might cost less in years and money. I’m fine with either.

 

The only solid starter I see is Verdugo. Everyone else is either too young, still unproven, or has platoon concerns.

 

It’s perfectly conceivable that Duran/Abreu/Rafaela/Refsnyder or some combination of those can become at least 1 viable defender, maybe you get two from that group with clean health and if platoons are used right.

 

Fact remains however that outfield depth is very thin. In a perfect world a power hitting outfield bat who can RF emerges.

 

But in a year where it makes so much more sense to buy pitching we may end up rolling with a youth movement in the outfield

 

Still I see the Sox signing a bat in the OF, Duval back on a 1 year makes the most sense.

 

In some ways, I think we have a lot of OF depth but no sure bet, solid 3 OF'er's. The one we have, Verdugo is the guy most likely to be traded.

 

To me, I'm fine with...

 

Yoshida at DH and 3rd string LF'er.

 

Duran and Refsnyder should be a fine platoon for LF. Abreu could be depth, if needed.

 

RF should be Dugo or Duvall (if Dugo is traded.) Abreu could be depth, there, too.

 

CF is the open book. It could be Duvall, if we sign him and keep Dugo, or we could go with Rafaela and Abreu, but with all these OF'ers I think one will start the season in AAA as further depth. I'm not sure Rosier is ML ready, but looks to be a LF type OF'er.

 

 

[notin]

His glove isn't as good anymore, but he has the position versatility of coming up as a corner IFer. I think he could play all over the place if they wanted him to.

 

His glove is still better than most other options…

[moonslav59]

We could do a lot worse than Duvall in RF. (Abreu as a back-up should work, too.)

[notin]

We could do a lot worse than Duvall in RF. (Abreu as a back-up should work, too.)

 

If Abreu doesn’t start, or at least platoon, he needs to be on Worcester…

[moonslav59]

If Abreu doesn’t start, or at least platoon, he needs to be on Worcester…

 

I can see us using Rafaela all over the place, which would allow Abreu to play CF and RF enough to not need to be in AAA.

 

If we trade Dugo and sign Duvall, Duvall should be a FT player, if he stays healthy.

 

Rafaela would have to play a lot of 2B to give Abreu that time.

[moonslav59]

How is this for a winter plan of action?

 

Trade Dugo, Yorke & Drohan for Corbin Burnes (BTV rates as a minor overpay by the Sox) Est ARBs: Burnes $15M and Dugo $9M, so +$9M to 2024 budget.

Sign Duvall to about $30M/3. +$10M to 2024 budget

Sign Yamamoto to about $230M/10 (plus posting fee.) +$23M to 2024 budget

Sign Morton to about $22M/1 with team option for '25 at $15M with $1M buyout. +$23M to 2024 budget

That is adding $65M to the 2024 tax budget, which I believe keeps us under the second tax line, comfortably.

 

SP1 Burnes

SP2 Yamamoto

SP3 Morton

SP4 Bello

SP5 Sale/Pivetta (pen)

RP8/9 Jansen & Martin

RP7/8 Winckowski & Schreiber (Bernardino if Pivetta is starting)

RP4-8 Houck, Crawford, Whitlock (Pivetta, if Sale is starting)

 

1. L/R Duran-Refsnyder LF

2. L Devers 3B

3. R Duvall RF

4. L Casas 1B

5. L Yoshida DH

6. R Story SS

7. L/R Abreu-Rafaela CF

8. R Urias-Reyes 2B

9. L/R McGuire-Wong C

 

Is that enough to win?

 

Is it possible we spend $65M plus the Devers and arb raises?

 

[notin]

I can see us using Rafaela all over the place, which would allow Abreu to play CF and RF enough to not need to be in AAA.

 

If we trade Dugo and sign Duvall, Duvall should be a FT player, if he stays healthy.

 

Rafaela would have to play a lot of 2B to give Abreu that time.

 

At the end of the day, the OF might be Duran in LF, Abreu and Rafaela platooning in CF, and Verdugo in RF…

[Hugh2]

How is this for a winter plan of action?

 

Trade Dugo, Yorke & Drohan for Corbin Burnes (BTV rates as a minor overpay by the Sox) Est ARBs: Burnes $15M and Dugo $9M, so +$9M to 2024 budget.

Sign Duvall to about $30M/3. +$10M to 2024 budget

Sign Yamamoto to about $230M/10 (plus posting fee.) +$23M to 2024 budget

Sign Morton to about $22M/1 with team option for '25 at $15M with $1M buyout. +$23M to 2024 budget

That is adding $65M to the 2024 tax budget, which I believe keeps us under the second tax line, comfortably.

 

SP1 Burnes

SP2 Yamamoto

SP3 Morton

SP4 Bello

SP5 Sale/Pivetta (pen)

RP8/9 Jansen & Martin

RP7/8 Winckowski & Schreiber (Bernardino if Pivetta is starting)

RP4-8 Houck, Crawford, Whitlock (Pivetta, if Sale is starting)

 

1. L/R Duran-Refsnyder LF

2. L Devers 3B

3. R Duvall RF

4. L Casas 1B

5. L Yoshida DH

6. R Story SS

7. L/R Abreu-Rafaela CF

8. R Urias-Reyes 2B

9. L/R McGuire-Wong C

 

Is that enough to win?

 

Is it possible we spend $65M plus the Devers and arb raises?

 

 

If we plan on going above the luxury tax line, I hope we do a heck of a lot better than Morton. We need multiple starting pitchers, not another one year flyer on an aging guy.