A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Many fans are about as fed up as can be. I'm not sure, if that is enough to light a fire under the current team ownership and management group, but a fire is likely what we need to seriously compete in 2024.

 

We'll be talking Rule 5, options and arbs, trades and signings before we know it. Most of us agree our top need is the rotation, and not just one top starter, but two or three. LH'd relief has been mentioned as has a big RH'd bat. Improving the D has been a topic, too.

 

The budget is a big question mark, again.

 

Here is what I think the foundation will be for 2024. I'm leaving 4 slots for additions via free agency or by trade:

 

SP1 _____

SP2 _____

SP3 Bello

SP4 Sale (Houck or Crawford)

SP5 Pivetta

 

Closer Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Houck

RP4 Crawford

RP5 Whitlock

RP6 Winckowski

RP7 Schreiber

RP8 ______ (LHP)

 

C Wong & McGuire

1B Casas

2B Reyes & Urias

3B Devers

SS Story

LF Duran & Refsnyder

CF ______ (RHB) Rafaela or Abreu

RF Verdugo

DH Yoshida

 

40 Man Roster on the Farm

C S Scott (Rule 5)

2B/DH EValdez

SS DHam

OF RaFaela or Abreu

SP Wikelman (Rule 5), Gambrell (Rule 5), Perales (Rule 5), Drohan (Rule 5)

P Murphy, Walter, Mata,

RP Bernardino, Kelly, Robertson

 

Gone from 40:

1B/RF Dalbec

RP Joely, Mills, Garza, Jacques, Llovera, Weiss, Gillaspie

 

I like the foundation. I know others don't. I know other teams have better and deeper foundations, as of now, but things can change over a winter.

 

I'm hopeful about 2024, but we will need to see some major additions for me to be optimistic about our chances. Let's see what the new GM brings to the equation.

 

[Larry Cook]

Who will replace Hang’em Chaim?

[moonslav59]

Who will replace Hang’em Chaim?

 

Probably not much will happen until this question is answered.

[mvp 78]

78-84

 

Sox sign only one decent SP this offseason. Lots of questions going into next year.

[moonslav59]

78-84

 

Sox sign only one decent SP this offseason. Lots of questions going into next year.

 

I get the sneaky feeling they feel they can come up with 4 decent starters from what we roll over.

 

We've beaten this to death, but jerking RP'ers into the rotation and then back and forth doesn't seem like a winning plan.

 

I think we will decide to keep Whitlock in the pen, so that might work out well. (It did for Wink.)

 

Bello is a lock for one slot.

My guess is Pivetta is for another.

Signing one makes it 3. That means we would need 2 from these guys:

Sale

Houck

Crawford

(Murphy, Walter, Gambrell, Wikelman, Mata, Drohan)

 

Personally, I'd keep Houck and Crawford in the pen and have a viable option as back-up to Sale, so we don't have to slide Houck or Crawford back to the rotation.

 

I'm not downplaying the talent of Houck and Crawford. I like both, a lot, but they seem like great pen arms and questionable starters.

[BOSOX11]

Maybe we can get E-Rod back via FA.

[cp176]

78-84

 

Sox sign only one decent SP this offseason. Lots of questions going into next year.

 

It is a confusing picture for sure. Without numerous moves, this team stays the same likely. They aren't very good. Outside of some potential young players whoever the new gm is the job will be a tough one. I get all the talk about the "cliff" now. Over the past few years we were brought to the brink of it and now have been kicked right off the ledge.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Right now, the starting rotation has the exact same amount of sure things going into next year as it did last winter: Bello and #5 man Nick Pivetta.

 

Now think about the entire season, and who -- if any other guy -- would be the closest to a fulltimer? Yes, that would be... Cutter Crawford: best WHIP among starters, more Ks than Bello, and tied with Pivetta for best starter ERA.

 

Sign one reliable starter, trade for a young one with potential, and somehow find a respectable righty power bat to protect Devers.

 

Raffy's season, with rankings among AL third basemen: 1st in HR, RBI, Slugging, OPS; 3rd in H, R, 2B, BA; 4th in OBP, tied 4th BB, 5th in Ks... Those stats seem to justify top salary among position players on the team -- either that or fans lack perspective with the realities of current batting struggles throughout the big leagues.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A few other AL rankings...

 

Yoshida among leftfielders: 1st in BA and SLUGGING; 2nd in OPS, H, RBI; 3rd OBP... 5th in HRs, 10th in Ks, 14th in BBs... 8-for-8 in SB attempts... strange days, indeed.

 

Verdugo among rightfielders: 2nd in BA and doubles; 4th in OPS, R; 5th in H... but here's the kicker -- among RFs with at least 500 ABs, dead last in HRs and RBIs. A corner outfielder for a contender has to do better than 13 HRs and 54 RBI.

[moonslav59]

It is a confusing picture for sure. Without numerous moves, this team stays the same likely. They aren't very good. Outside of some potential young players whoever the new gm is the job will be a tough one. I get all the talk about the "cliff" now. Over the past few years we were brought to the brink of it and now have been kicked right off the ledge.

 

We disagree, a lot, but I have always respected you and your opinions.

 

Well said.

[Bellhorn04]

A few other AL rankings...

 

Yoshida among leftfielders: 1st in BA and SLUGGING; 2nd in OPS, H, RBI; 3rd OBP... 5th in HRs, 10th in Ks, 14th in BBs... 8-for-8 in SB attempts... strange days, indeed.

 

Verdugo among rightfielders: 2nd in BA and doubles; 4th in OPS, R; 5th in H... but here's the kicker -- among RFs with at least 500 ABs, dead last in HRs and RBIs. A corner outfielder for a contender has to do better than 13 HRs and 54 RBI.

 

But Yoshida only had 2 HR more than Verdugo.

 

AL left fielders must have been really bad this year, I guess.

[Old Red]

It is a confusing picture for sure. Without numerous moves, this team stays the same likely. They aren't very good. Outside of some potential young players whoever the new gm is the job will be a tough one. I get all the talk about the "cliff" now. Over the past few years we were brought to the brink of it and now have been kicked right off the ledge.

 

POTENTIAL young players? Was there anything that the RAF Man did in a Red Sox uniform this year in garbage time at that get you all excited to pencil him in to start in CF next year? Portland, and Worcester yes, but what he did with his chances in Sept left a lot to be desired that he’s going to be a good ML player.

[Old Red]

But Yoshida only had 2 HR more than Verdugo.

 

AL left fielders must have been really bad this year, I guess.

 

But what’s your lasting impression of Yoshida this year outside of chasing balls caught in a light in the wall was beating ground balls into the infield dirt.

[notin]

POTENTIAL young players? Was there anything that the RAF Man did in a Red Sox uniform this year in garbage time at that get you all excited to pencil him in to start in CF next year? Portland, and Worcester yes, but what he did with his chances in Sept left a lot to be desired that he’s going to be a good ML player.

 

He can field the position…

[notin]

Right now, the starting rotation has the exact same amount of sure things going into next year as it did last winter: Bello and #5 man Nick Pivetta.

 

Now think about the entire season, and who -- if any other guy -- would be the closest to a fulltimer? Yes, that would be... Cutter Crawford: best WHIP among starters, more Ks than Bello, and tied with Pivetta for best starter ERA.

 

Sign one reliable starter, trade for a young one with potential, and somehow find a respectable righty power bat to protect Devers.

 

Raffy's season, with rankings among AL third basemen: 1st in HR, RBI, Slugging, OPS; 3rd in H, R, 2B, BA; 4th in OBP, tied 4th BB, 5th in Ks... Those stats seem to justify top salary among position players on the team -- either that or fans lack perspective with the realities of current batting struggles throughout the big leagues.

 

I have no issues with Crawford as a SP. I do think they need two other SPs as well.

 

But a RHH bat to protect Devers in fromt of a league worst defense makes zero sense. Sox were, despite the slow finish, a top ten offense. They were not a top 29 defense…

[mvp 78]

I get the sneaky feeling they feel they can come up with 4 decent starters from what we roll over.

 

We've beaten this to death, but jerking RP'ers into the rotation and then back and forth doesn't seem like a winning plan.

 

I think we will decide to keep Whitlock in the pen, so that might work out well. (It did for Wink.)

 

Bello is a lock for one slot.

My guess is Pivetta is for another.

Signing one makes it 3. That means we would need 2 from these guys:

Sale

Houck

Crawford

(Murphy, Walter, Gambrell, Wikelman, Mata, Drohan)

 

Personally, I'd keep Houck and Crawford in the pen and have a viable option as back-up to Sale, so we don't have to slide Houck or Crawford back to the rotation.

 

I'm not downplaying the talent of Houck and Crawford. I like both, a lot, but they seem like great pen arms and questionable starters.

 

Counting on Pivetta to be a decent starter is laughable to me. The "he's the best 5th starter in MLB" isn't much to write home about. The Sox need to do better. It's fine if he's a long reliever that can start 10 games a year. If he's in the starting rotation on Opening Day, miss me with that.

[mvp 78]

Maybe we can get E-Rod back via FA.

 

Pass. I want a guy that can pitch all year. He's a worse pitcher than he was in 2021, but is getting paid substantially more.

[Old Red]

Counting on Pivetta to be a decent starter is laughable to me. The "he's the best 5th starter in MLB" isn't much to write home about. The Sox need to do better. It's fine if he's a long reliever that can start 10 games a year. If he's in the starting rotation on Opening Day, miss me with that.

 

His best trait is he’s there to take his turn everyday. I would rather count on him as the 5th starter than to count on Sale at all.

[mvp 78]

Right now, the starting rotation has the exact same amount of sure things going into next year as it did last winter: Bello and #5 man Nick Pivetta.

 

Now think about the entire season, and who -- if any other guy -- would be the closest to a fulltimer? Yes, that would be... Cutter Crawford: best WHIP among starters, more Ks than Bello, and tied with Pivetta for best starter ERA.

 

Sign one reliable starter, trade for a young one with potential, and somehow find a respectable righty power bat to protect Devers.

 

Raffy's season, with rankings among AL third basemen: 1st in HR, RBI, Slugging, OPS; 3rd in H, R, 2B, BA; 4th in OBP, tied 4th BB, 5th in Ks... Those stats seem to justify top salary among position players on the team -- either that or fans lack perspective with the realities of current batting struggles throughout the big leagues.

 

Raffy is great. He was just surrounded by the Island of Misfit Toys. Justin Turner collapsed at the end of the year due to age. Duvall missed half the year due to the injury. Verdugo sucked after the ASB because he's Alex Verdugo. IF Trevor Story can come back strong next year, he can really slide nicely between Casas and Devers. We just haven't seen it over an extended period of time while he's been here.

 

Big questions at the top of the lineup.

[Old Red]

Pass. I want a guy that can pitch all year. He's a worse pitcher than he was in 2021, but is getting paid substantially more.

 

Except for games started 26-32 he had a better year this year than he had in 2021.

[mvp 78]

A few other AL rankings...

 

Yoshida among leftfielders: 1st in BA and SLUGGING; 2nd in OPS, H, RBI; 3rd OBP... 5th in HRs, 10th in Ks, 14th in BBs... 8-for-8 in SB attempts... strange days, indeed.

 

Verdugo among rightfielders: 2nd in BA and doubles; 4th in OPS, R; 5th in H... but here's the kicker -- among RFs with at least 500 ABs, dead last in HRs and RBIs. A corner outfielder for a contender has to do better than 13 HRs and 54 RBI.

 

If his defense was just league average, he would have been fine.

 

Also, why are LFers a dumpster fire now?

[mvp 78]

He can field the position…

 

Good enough me for the #9 hitter.

[Old Red]

Raffy is great. He was just surrounded by the Island of Misfit Toys. Justin Turner collapsed at the end of the year due to age. Duvall missed half the year due to the injury. Verdugo sucked after the ASB because he's Alex Verdugo. IF Trevor Story can come back strong next year, he can really slide nicely between Casas and Devers. We just haven't seen it over an extended period of time while he's been here.

 

Big questions at the top of the lineup.

Raffy was far from great at 3B, and he was one of those misfit toys. I think with JT it was a combination of age, and injury. He wasn’t the same after his foot injury. If, if, and if on Story Land being open more than being closed with the bat next year. To replace JT, and Duvall’s bat you need more than Story. Big ifs, and questions abound for next year’s team to even get to 500. Don’t fear though, because Cora is going to be in on the hiring of the new GM type.

[notin]

C: Wong (McGuire)

1b: Devers

2b: Urias

3b: Chapman

SS: Story

Util INF: Reyes

LF: Yoshida

CF: Rafaela

RF: Verdugo

DH: Casas

OF: Refsnyder

 

I could see moving Duran for SP or an another 2b instead of Urias. If the Sox move Verdugo, an Abreu/Dunn platoon makes sense…

[Bellhorn04]

Counting on Pivetta to be a decent starter is laughable to me. The "he's the best 5th starter in MLB" isn't much to write home about. The Sox need to do better. It's fine if he's a long reliever that can start 10 games a year. If he's in the starting rotation on Opening Day, miss me with that.

 

That's a pretty harsh take on a #5 starter. Pivetta's numbers over the last 3 years are fine for that profile.

[mvp 78]

I have no issues with Crawford as a SP. I do think they need two other SPs as well.

 

But a RHH bat to protect Devers in fromt of a league worst defense makes zero sense. Sox were, despite the slow finish, a top ten offense. They were not a top 29 defense…

 

I'd rather Crawford as a #5 than Pivetta.

[mvp 78]

Raffy was far from great at 3B, and he was one of those misfit toys. I think with JT it was a combination of age, and injury. He wasn’t the same after his foot injury. If, if, and if on Story Land being open more than being closed with the bat next year. To replace JT, and Duvall’s bat you need more than Story. Big ifs, and questions abound for next year’s team to even get to 500. Don’t fear though, because Cora is going to be in on the hiring of the new GM type.

 

He was the best player on the team.

 

33 HR

100 RBI

 

Those are numbers that old school guys used to like?

[Old Red]

I'd rather Crawford as a #5 than Pivetta.

 

That’s fine, but then you have to get 3 other starters to round out the rotation, because I would count on Sale. I m guessing Houck will get another chance to start next year.

[mvp 78]

That's a pretty harsh take on a #5 starter. Pivetta's numbers over the last 3 years are fine for that profile.

 

We need the rotation to be better. Pivetta can barely even get a QS every few games.

 

Sale will also most likely be in the rotation. That's two slots that are very underwhelming.

[mvp 78]

That’s fine, but then you have to get 3 other starters to round out the rotation, because I would count on Sale. I m guessing Houck will get another chance to start next year.

 

Sale will definitely be in the rotation.

 

Bello

Acquisition

Sale

Crawford

Pivetta

 

That's what it's going to look like. You can write it down apparently if you guys want Pivetta in the rotation.