Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

With Devers and Casas rating to be our two best batters in 2024, I can't see making acquiring a 3Bman a high priority.

 

Defense matters, yes, but not as much as fixing the rotation and finding a replacement for JT and Duvall from the right side of the batting box. While Chapman checks the RHB box, we have other positions that need more fixing than corner IF.

 

Moving Yoshi to DH makes a hell of a lot of sense. It automatically improves the LF defense, and if it keeps Duran out of CF, if improves CF D, too. It might allow Yoshi to hit better in 2024, as he should be better rested and able to focus more on batting not defense. With Abreu and Rafaela knocking loudly on the door, this allows them an opportunity to win the CF position, or share it while backing up RF. If Rafaela proves he can play, nearly everyday, our OF D is fixed with no additions needed. It's a big if, though, and Abreu offers a back up plan, although his defense is still in need of improvement, especially in CF.

 

Story should greatly improve our SS defense. Relying on Reyes to hit over .700, again, is probably wishful thinking, but his defense at 2B is okay. Urias may not be back, and his defense is not great, either.

 

I'm hoping Wong and McGuire continue improving their defense and can combine to hit over .700, consistently.

 

Maybe, this is too many "hopes" and not enough sure bets, but I think just adding one good RHB might be all the non pitching roster needs. Duvall returning is one option, but I don't really like him in CF; we have too many LF'ers already, and Dugo was our best defensive OF'er, last year, so adding Duvall to play RF is not really improving the D, either. It would balance the L-R make-up of the OF, though. Some have mentioned Teoscar, but he's not helping our D.

 

I'm not aware of any power RH'd bats on the market at 2B. (Maybe via trade?)

 

The main focus, this winter has to be on the rotation. It needs to be a major focus times 3. Maybe two really good starters would be enough, but I'd prefer one really good one and two solid ones.

 

[Maxbialystock]

Devers seems decent to good with the glove. His arm accuracy is the major issue.

 

I don't think all players are cut out to DH, so I'm not sure moving Devers or Casas is a great idea, but our corner IF sucks on D. To me, Devers at 1B would be better on D.

 

We'd have to pay for a 3Bman like Chapman, or go with Urias at 3B. This causes Yoshi to stay in LF, almost everyday.

 

I'd prefer to have Yoshi DH and give Devers a 1Bman's mitt over the winter to work on being the back-up at 1B in '24, and see how he looks there.

 

I like Casas at 1b because I like his length on those errant throws to 1b. He's so-so on grounders, but that's OK with me. His throws to 2b have been good.

 

And this. His freaking OPS this year was .856!!!!! If you make him DH, that makes Yoshida our full-time leftfielder, where this year his DWAR in just 86 games was -1.1.

 

I would much rather have good bats at 3b and 1b than good gloves/arms. The Sox do not win games with their gloves anywhere near as much as they do with their bats and pitching arms.

 

That said, however, it bothers me that both are lefty bats on a team that needs good righty bats to win. This year the lineup was filled with the likes of Duran, Dugo, Devers, Casas, Yoshida, and McGuire.

[Bellhorn04]

Also, who's going to play 3b when Devers moves to 1b?

 

Max, you have to read the whole series of posts. This all started with the idea of signing Matt Chapman for 3B.

[Old Red]

Max, you have to read the whole series of posts. This all started with the idea of signing Matt Chapman for 3B.

 

Chapman is Notin’s pipe dream just like Gallo was last year. Gallo didn’t happen, and Chapman won’t either.

[Maxbialystock]

Max, you have to read the whole series of posts. This all started with the idea of signing Matt Chapman for 3B.

 

Which of course is typical of me--and for which I do apologize.

 

That said, however, I don't like that deal. Why get an older third baseman who can't hit as well as Devers so you can move Devers to a new freaking position and then make Casas the freaking DH when Yoshida is clearly the guy who needs to be the DH?

 

Right now and until someone else comes up with something really smart, I look forward to Devers and Casas, the two best freaking bats in the Sox lineup and both adequate fielders, back at 3b and 1b next season. I love that Story will provide solid defense at SS and hope his OPS is close to his career .832. And I think the Sox will have enough options to provide a good field, semi-decent hitting 2d baseman.

 

With Yoshida as the likely DH, I think at least two good righty bats would be nice in the outfield. Like Duvall and Rafaela--provided Rafaela can hit MLB pitching. Refsnyder is not a good righty bat because he can't hit righty pitchers. I wouldn't mind Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF, and Duvall in RF, but it would be nice if Duran had instructions not to run into walls in futile attempts to catch dingers.

 

Wong and McGuire are a good tandem behind the plate.

 

So that leaves the pitching, which is the biggest problem. In other words, to heck with Chapman, and let's get a one or two good starters if they can be found for less than $35M/year for 10 years--each.

[dgalehouse]

There is not all that much difference between teams . So, it is not that difficult to turn things around quickly. When Dombrowski took over, he was able to assess just what the problems were and what was needed to correct them. He acted aggressively. He had a good sense of who was expendable and who was a keeper. The turnaround was immediate. Right now, it doesn't take a genius to see what the problems are. It is obvious to all. You have to be aggressive. Can't be afraid of making a mistake. And the owner has to be willing to spend more , if necessary. It can be done and done quickly.

[notin]

Chapman is Notin’s pipe dream just like Gallo was last year. Gallo didn’t happen, and Chapman won’t either.

 

Hey Gallo would have solved OF issues and Chapman (whom I did not bring up in this convo) would solve Infield defense problems. As unlikely as Chapman is, he’s still more likely than signing both Yamamoto and Nola…

[moonslav59]

I like Casas at 1b because I like his length on those errant throws to 1b. He's so-so on grounders, but that's OK with me. His throws to 2b have been good.

 

And this. His freaking OPS this year was .856!!!!! If you make him DH, that makes Yoshida our full-time leftfielder, where this year his DWAR in just 86 games was -1.1.

 

I would much rather have good bats at 3b and 1b than good gloves/arms. The Sox do not win games with their gloves anywhere near as much as they do with their bats and pitching arms.

 

That said, however, it bothers me that both are lefty bats on a team that needs good righty bats to win. This year the lineup was filled with the likes of Duran, Dugo, Devers, Casas, Yoshida, and McGuire.

 

Casas was horrible on D, as was Devers, but I think Yoshi should be the DH.

 

Casas should get a chance to show he can improve.

 

Devers should start seeing if he can play 1B as a back-up in 2024, when he is not at 1B, and Casas gets one of his 20 rest days from Cora.

[notin]

Which of course is typical of me--and for which I do apologize.

 

That said, however, I don't like that deal. Why get an older third baseman who can't hit as well as Devers so you can move Devers to a new freaking position and then make Casas the freaking DH when Yoshida is clearly the guy who needs to be the DH?

 

Right now and until someone else comes up with something really smart, I look forward to Devers and Casas, the two best freaking bats in the Sox lineup and both adequate fielders, back at 3b and 1b next season. I love that Story will provide solid defense at SS and hope his OPS is close to his career .832. And I think the Sox will have enough options to provide a good field, semi-decent hitting 2d baseman.

 

With Yoshida as the likely DH, I think at least two good righty bats would be nice in the outfield. Like Duvall and Rafaela--provided Rafaela can hit MLB pitching. Refsnyder is not a good righty bat because he can't hit righty pitchers. I wouldn't mind Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF, and Duvall in RF, but it would be nice if Duran had instructions not to run into walls in futile attempts to catch dingers.

 

Wong and McGuire are a good tandem behind the plate.

 

So that leaves the pitching, which is the biggest problem. In other words, to heck with Chapman, and let's get a one or two good starters if they can be found for less than $35M/year for 10 years--each.

 

Devers and Casas are adequate fielders?

 

Casas ranks 15th out of 16 qualified first basemen in OAA. Devers ranks 15th out of 15 qualified third basemen in OAA. What exactly would be inadequate?

 

Yoshida ranks 13th out of 18 left fielders in OAA (700 innings min).

 

Why is Yoshida considered the defensive weak link?

Edited September 30, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

Which of course is typical of me--and for which I do apologize.

 

That said, however, I don't like that deal. Why get an older third baseman who can't hit as well as Devers so you can move Devers to a new freaking position and then make Casas the freaking DH when Yoshida is clearly the guy who needs to be the DH?

 

Right now and until someone else comes up with something really smart, I look forward to Devers and Casas, the two best freaking bats in the Sox lineup and both adequate fielders, back at 3b and 1b next season.

 

Being great hitters does not make them "adequate" on defense. They both suck on D. Let's not sugarcoat it.

 

Yes, their great O offsets their D and makes them very nice plus players, but keeping their bats in he line-up and moving Casas to DH and Devers to 1B would not lessen their offense or overall value.

 

That being said, I'd keep them both where they are, and move Yoshi to FT DH.

 

Devers should start learning 1B, and be the back-up, there, next season.

[Larry Cook]

Pitching. Pitching. Pitching and more pitching should be the offseason priorities! Bello and four days of rain is not a good strategy. Sale breaks down more than a 1978 ford pinto. Pivetta is dr. Heckle and Mr. Hyde! Houck and Whitlock are bullpen only guys

[notin]

Being great hitters does not make them "adequate" on defense. They both suck on D. Let's not sugarcoat it.

 

Yes, their great O offsets their D and makes them very nice plus players, but keeping their bats in he line-up and moving Casas to DH and Devers to 1B would not lessen their offense or overall value.

 

That being said, I'd keep them both where they are, and move Yoshi to FT DH.

 

Devers should start learning 1B, and be the back-up, there, next season.

 

 

The Sox have the unchallenged worst combination of corner infield defense. Yoshida is not good on LF, but two of the 5 teams with worse defense are heading into the postseason.

 

There’s a good chance his defensive shortcomings are being overblown and possibly used as a scapegoat…

[moonslav59]

The Sox have the unchallenged worst combination of corner infield defense. Yoshida is not good on LF, but two of the 5 teams with worse defense are heading into the postseason.

 

There’s a good chance his defensive shortcomings are being overblown and possibly used as a scapegoat…

 

Casas should get a longer chance to see if his defense can improve. We know pretty much what Devers can do, although he has looked okay, at times.

 

It can't hurt to try and fix the D, as long as it doesn't mess up the O or take away resources needed for added pitching.

[notin]

Casas should get a longer chance to see if his defense can improve. We know pretty much what Devers can do, although he has looked okay, at times.

 

It can't hurt to try and fix the D, as long as it doesn't mess up the O or take away resources needed for added pitching.

 

Improving the pitching will be difficult if they continue to throw in front of that pathetic defense. Philly’s defense ducks and it’s why Nola looks like a league average pitcher.

 

Improving the defense makes it much easier to improve the pitching. It’s like if you have a car that’s leaking oil, do you listen to someone who has the solution “you just need to buy better and more expensive oil!!”?

[Bellhorn04]

Devers and Casas are adequate fielders?

 

Casas ranks 15th out of 16 qualified first basemen in OAA. Devers ranks 15th out of 15 qualified third basemen in OAA. What exactly would be inadequate?

 

Yoshida ranks 13th out of 18 left fielders in OAA (700 innings min).

 

Why is Yoshida considered the defensive weak link?

 

Speaking for myself, I go by the FanGraphs numbers, which show Devers at 5.9 runs below replacement, and Yoshida at 16 runs below replacement. (Casas at 15.9 runs below.)

 

Defensive metrics can vary quite a bit, obviously.

[notin]

Speaking for myself, I go by the FanGraphs numbers, which show Devers at 5.9 runs below replacement, and Yoshida at 16 runs below replacement. (Casas at 15.9 runs below.)

 

Defensive metrics can vary quite a bit, obviously.

 

And what does those numbers rank them?

 

(Also I believe those are “below league average” not “below replacement”)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Sox have the unchallenged worst combination of corner infield defense. Yoshida is not good on LF, but two of the 5 teams with worse defense are heading into the postseason.

 

There’s a good chance his defensive shortcomings are being overblown and possibly used as a scapegoat…

 

He's not that tall; more like a scapewoodchuck (though still cute and fuzzy). If Masa was as athletic as Franchy, he'd be a scapecheetah (except when the latter played first, and was a scapecactus).

 

... now those have to be at least 7s on the notin scale

 

But seriously, is leftfield defense the real culprit in killing the Red Sox D? Or does it just bother people too much that the guy wears his pants so high...

[notin]

He's not that tall; more like a scapewoodchuck (though still cute and fuzzy). If Masa was as athletic as Franchy, he'd be a scapecheetah (except when the latter played first, and was a scapecactus).

 

... now those have to be at least 7s on the notin scale

 

But seriously, is leftfield defense the real culprit in killing the Red Sox D? Or does it just bother people too much that the guy wears his pants so high...

 

 

I think a lot of people have some sort of freaky Randy Newman Complex.

 

Devers is 6’3”, so clearly he can play adequate defense. Casas is 6’5”, so he’s even better.

 

But Yoshida is like 19” tall. Too short to play good defense..

[Bellhorn04]

And what does those numbers rank them?

 

(Also I believe those are “below league average” not “below replacement”)

 

I think all the numbers are "RAR".

 

I'm out of my depth when it comes to defensive metrics, though.

 

I tend to focus on the one number, WAR.

[notin]

I think all the numbers are "RAR".

 

I'm out of my depth when it comes to defensive metrics, though.

 

I tend to focus on the one number, WAR.

 

 

Ok, the “Def” column that many think is dWAR is runs above/below league average, uses the same type of baseline as UZR and (obviously) OAA.

 

Nothing worn with WAR, but this a discussion about defense…

[moonslav59]

Improving the pitching will be difficult if they continue to throw in front of that pathetic defense. Philly’s defense ducks and it’s why Nola looks like a league average pitcher.

 

Improving the defense makes it much easier to improve the pitching. It’s like if you have a car that’s leaking oil, do you listen to someone who has the solution “you just need to buy better and more expensive oil!!”?

 

I don't disagree, but this costs nothing and brings us from the worst D in MLB to near the middle with no outside additions:

 

C: Wong & McGuire (hopefully, a little better due to added experience)

1B: Casas & Devers as back-up (hopefully, Casas works on his D like he does on his O, over the winnter.)

2B: Reyes & Urias or EValdez? (Reyes as the FT 2Bman is an improvement over the combined group of 2023. )

3B: Devers & Urias/Reyes (same)

SS: Story & Reyes (HUGE improvement)

LF: Duran/Refsndyer platoon (significant improvement with no Yoshida)

CF: Rafaela & Abreu (significant improvement)

RF: Dugo & Abreu (same)

 

I see improvements at 4-5 positions, including all up the middle ones.

I see close to the same at 1B, 3B, RF and maybe C and 2B.

 

Is that enough to boost the current pitching and incoming ones?

 

[moonslav59]

I think all the numbers are "RAR".

 

I'm out of my depth when it comes to defensive metrics, though.

 

I tend to focus on the one number, WAR.

 

Saying someone sucks on D is not saying they suck overall. WAR captures the overall value well enough for me, but we often see players with lower WARs due to poor D and higher WARs due to great D.

 

Devers and Casas would have much better WARs, if they just player average D. They'd have great WARs, if they played great D.

 

Nobody wants to bench them. They are two of our best players, but moving them to different positions might improve their value. I doubt it would hurt it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't disagree, but this costs nothing and brings us from the worst D in MLB to near the middle with no outside additions:

 

C: Wong & McGuire (hopefully, a little better due to added experience)

1B: Casas & Devers as back-up (hopefully, Casas works on his D like he does on his O, over the winnter.)

2B: Reyes & Urias or EValdez? (Reyes as the FT 2Bman is an improvement over the combined group of 2023. )

3B: Devers & Urias/Reyes (same)

SS: Story & Reyes (HUGE improvement)

LF: Duran/Refsndyer platoon (significant improvement with no Yoshida)

CF: Rafaela & Abreu (significant improvement)

RF: Dugo & Abreu (same)

 

I see improvements at 4-5 positions, including all up the middle ones.

I see close to the same at 1B, 3B, RF and maybe C and 2B.

 

Is that enough to boost the current pitching and incoming ones?

 

 

This is a good best-case, but you have to admit it can also be another "if everything goes right" scenario of too familiar long odds.

 

In other words, when Rice was asked the other night what is the Sox' biggest need to improve for next year, he said, "Ballplayers."

 

Also, even if the Sox are destined to suck again, the front office absolutely has to add new right-handed power hitters... at least to entertain fans. Because even if Story rebounds with a career year and bombs 44 homers, that only replaces Turner's and Duvall's missing HRs -- which were good enough to land us in last place this season.

[moonslav59]

This is a good best-case, but you have to admit it can also be another "if everything goes right" scenario of too familiar long odds.

 

In other words, when Rice was asked the other night what is the Sox' biggest need to improve for next year, he said, "Ballplayers."

 

Also, even if the Sox are destined to suck again, the front office absolutely has to add new right-handed power hitters... at least to entertain fans. Because even if Story rebounds with a career year and bombs 44 homers, that only replaces Turner's and Duvall's missing HRs -- which were good enough to land us in last place this season.

 

Indeed. This all requires almost everyone to stay healthy, especially Story at SS. The chances everyone does the same or better is never something to plan on.

 

I get that.

 

We do have OF depth, despite losing Duvall and moving Yoshida to DH. We don't really have anyone who looks to regress terribly due to age.

 

C Wong 27/McGuire 28

1B Casas 23/Devers 26

2B Reyes 29/Urias 26/EValdez 24

SS Story 30 (Reyes 29/Urias 26)

3B Devers 26 (Yrias 26)

LF Duran 26/ Refsnyder 32

CF Rafaela 22/Abreu 24

RF Dugo 27 (Abreu 24)

DH Yoshida 29

 

The biggest "ifs" are with the pitching staff, but age does not seem to be an issue there, either, except for maybe Martin 37, Jansen 35 and Sale 34.

31 Bernardino

30 Pivetta

29 Schreiber

28 Kelly

27 Crawford, Houck, Whitlock

25 Winckowski & Murphy

24 Bello

 

Add 2 top SP'ers or 1 with 2 other solid SP'ers

Add a power RHB (CF/2B or RF, if we trade Dugo or Duran)

Add a LH'd RP, if possible

 

Yes, we'd still need a bunch of things to go right, but no key players are expected to decline.

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Indeed. This all requires almost everyone to stay healthy, especially Story at SS. The chances everyone does the same or better is never something to plan on.

 

I get that.

 

We do have OF depth, despite losing Duvall and moving Yoshida to DH. We don't really have anyone who looks to regress terribly due to age.

 

C Wong 27/McGuire 28

1B Casas 23/Devers 26

2B Reyes 29/Urias 26/EValdez 24

SS Story 30 (Reyes 29/Urias 26)

3B Devers 26 (Yrias 26)

LF Duran 26/ Refsnyder 32

CF Rafaela 22/Abreu 24

RF Dugo 27 (Abreu 24)

DH Yoshida 29

 

The biggest "ifs" are with the pitching staff, but age does not seem to be an issue there, either, except for maybe Martin 37, Jansen 35 and Sale 34.

31 Bernardino

30 Pivetta

29 Schreiber

28 Kelly

27 Crawford, Houck, Whitlock

25 Winckowski & Murphy

24 Bello

 

Add 2 top SP'ers or 1 with 2 other solid SP'ers

Add a power RHB (CF/2B or RF, if we trade Dugo or Duran)

Add a LH'd RP, if possible

 

Yes, we'd still need a bunch of things to go right, but no key players are expected to decline.

 

 

 

 

Ha, just be prepared for some smartass to post: "Ya -- Devers can't get any worse!"

 

Btw, I like our young outfielders starting or at least platooning next year. That doesn't include Duran, who is 27, in his prime, and may not improve anymore on D... but who I love turning singles into doubles, which may appeal to other MLB clubs and yield decent trade returns.

[notin]

This is a good best-case, but you have to admit it can also be another "if everything goes right" scenario of too familiar long odds.

 

In other words, when Rice was asked the other night what is the Sox' biggest need to improve for next year, he said, "Ballplayers."

 

Also, even if the Sox are destined to suck again, the front office absolutely has to add new right-handed power hitters... at least to entertain fans. Because even if Story rebounds with a career year and bombs 44 homers, that only replaces Turner's and Duvall's missing HRs -- which were good enough to land us in last place this season.

 

Yes the Sox biggest reason for finishing in last place was the death of right-handed home runs. Not pitching. And certainly not defense. Except for left field, where that guy created an unimaginable amount damage in the half season worth of innings he played out there…

[moonslav59]

Ha, just be prepared for some smartass to post: "Ya -- Devers can't get any worse!"

 

Btw, I like our young outfielders starting or at least platooning next year. That doesn't include Duran, who is 27, in his prime, and may not improve anymore on D... but who I love turning singles into doubles, which may appeal to other MLB clubs and yield decent trade returns.

 

Duran nin LF does improve his D and our LF D.

[notin]

Duran nin LF does improve his D and our LF D.

 

That’s an assumption. Duran is light years better defensively than he was last year, but only because he was a complete horror show who looked like he has never even seen an outfield last year, let alone tried to defend one.

 

It’s interesting that most of the ideas on this board about how to improve the defense include giving another player “more time to get better.” Casas needs more time to learn that position he’s been playing his entire professional career. Duran will get better if we give him an easier position and more time. But Yoshida? Apparently he’s barely a step above Stevie Wonder in the 700 innings he played out there. “No chance! Can’t improve!

 

“But we should give Devers another year. He’s only been playing third base for 10 or 12 years now. He will het better soon. Possibly jump all the way up to second worst defensive third baseman in MLB.”

[Duran Is The Man]

Devers and Casas are adequate fielders?

 

Casas ranks 15th out of 16 qualified first basemen in OAA. Devers ranks 15th out of 15 qualified third basemen in OAA. What exactly would be inadequate?

 

Yoshida ranks 13th out of 18 left fielders in OAA (700 innings min).

 

Why is Yoshida considered the defensive weak link?

 

 

even with the Sox being out of it for quite some time, Cora has still yet to use Devers at 1B. this blows my mind that we can see this but he doesn't. at this point, what do they have to lose? it's ridiculous having such an aawful defense and even more ridiculous that he doesn't seem to care to do anything about it. i really like your Matt CHapman idea. and it makes a ton of sense so....it will never happen. i guess Cora is going to stick with guys that can't play defense for s*** (see Rodriguez, Kike) because he's a "players coach".

[moonslav59]

That’s an assumption. Duran is light years better defensively than he was last year, but only because he was a complete horror show who looked like he has never even seen an outfield last year, let alone tried to defend one.

 

It’s interesting that most of the ideas on this board about how to improve the defense include giving another player “more time to get better.” Casas needs more time to learn that position he’s been playing his entire professional career. Duran will get better if we give him an easier position and more time. But Yoshida? Apparently he’s barely a step above Stevie Wonder in the 700 innings he played out there. “No chance! Can’t improve!

 

“But we should give Devers another year. He’s only been playing third base for 10 or 12 years now. He will het better soon. Possibly jump all the way up to second worst defensive third baseman in MLB.”

 

Duran is better than Yoshida in LF, and that is not an assumption.

 

The only reason I am talking about improving the D, is because our D is crappy, and there is a way to do it, significantly for free.

 

My position is all about pitching, and allowing our pitchers to do better by improving the D without spending a cent or trading anyone.

 

I'm not saying Casas will get better, but he has one year in the bigs. Yoshida not only sucked on D, he also looked like he ran out of steam on O, too. DH'ing may improve our LF D and his offense.

 

I'm all for letting Devers play 1B, when Casas sits, but I'll never be for signing Chapman over a SP. It's not a bad position to hold.