Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[mvp 78]

That was unfortunate, although Lee did have a rough 4 starts to begin August of 1978:

 

23.2 IPy

32 Hits

8 BB

6 Ks

5.32 ERA

6.56 FIP

.954 OPS Against

 

His last 3 starts in July (5.00 ERA/4.09 FIP) were not all that good.

 

His last 7 starts of 1978, before being banished to 3 pen games the rest of that season:

 

The team went 0-7

5.18 ERA

5.49 FIP

.870 OPSA

 

IMO, Lee should have been given a chance to get back in the rotation. He was pitching very well over the first 4 months. (3.21 ERA/4.28 FIP)

 

His final two appearances of the year:

 

NYY 9/8 7 Inn, 1 ER

NYY 9/10 2.1 Inn, 0 ER

 

On 7/20 and 8/4 he got beat up really bad by Milwaukee. Thankfully, he wasn't playing Milwaukee in the one game playoff. Excluding those two starts: 68 IP, 25 ER, 3.30 ERA. Why even have guys like LaRose and Sprowl start games down the stretch? It doesn't make sense.

[mvp 78]

@RandyJMiller

Alcohol ruined Domingo German’s Yankees career, but he still drinks because ‘I don’t have a problem’

 

Why can't Crag sign guys like this?

[moonslav59]

His final two appearances of the year:

 

NYY 9/8 7 Inn, 1 ER

NYY 9/10 2.1 Inn, 0 ER

 

On 7/20 and 8/4 he got beat up really bad by Milwaukee. Thankfully, he wasn't playing Milwaukee in the one game playoff. Excluding those two starts: 68 IP, 25 ER, 3.30 ERA. Why even have guys like LaRose and Sprowl start games down the stretch? It doesn't make sense.

 

I agree and agreed before.

[Bellhorn04]

FWIW Joel Sherman is hearing that Montgomery's contract ask has gone from (rough figures) 7/175 to 5/135. Seems he has a couple of offers on table but obviously still well short of the ask.

[Randy Red Sox]

FWIW Joel Sherman is hearing that Montgomery's contract ask has gone from (rough figures) 7/175 to 5/135. Seems he has a couple of offers on table but obviously still well short of the ask.

 

but still too high for Mr Henry

[moonslav59]

FWIW Joel Sherman is hearing that Montgomery's contract ask has gone from (rough figures) 7/175 to 5/135. Seems he has a couple of offers on table but obviously still well short of the ask.

 

So, 4 years with an option wth hefty buyout?

 

He would likely get an opt out, too.

[Bellhorn04]

So, 4 years with an option wth hefty buyout?

 

He would likely get an opt out, too.

 

I was thinking something like this:

 

4 years 92 mill

 

26

24

22

20

 

Opt-out after Year 2.

 

Sox probably wouldn't even do this though.

[moonslav59]

I was thinking something like this:

 

4 years 92 mill

 

26

24

22

20

 

Opt-out after Year 2.

 

Sox probably wouldn't even do this though.

 

Maybe ...

 

$29M

$27M

Opt out

$25M

$23M

 

5th year option: $21M with $4M buyout.

 

$56M/2 if opts out ($28M x 2)

$108M/4 if bought out ($27M x 4)

$125M/5 if no buy out ($25M x 5)

[mvp 78]

Maybe ...

 

$29M

$27M

Opt out

$25M

$23M

 

5th year option: $21M with $4M buyout.

 

$56M/2 if opts out ($28M x 2)

$108M/4 if bought out ($27M x 4)

$125M/5 if no buy out ($25M x 5)

 

Why would the Sox go over the CBT for a 2 year deal when they don't plan on competing this year? Doesn't seem to make sense to me, especially if they are working on Casas' extension too.

[Bellhorn04]

Why would the Sox go over the CBT for a 2 year deal when they don't plan on competing this year? Doesn't seem to make sense to me, especially if they are working on Casas' extension too.

 

We still don't really know what they're planning on this year. One could argue that if it was a 100% punt they wouldn't even have done the Giolito deal.

 

As for Casas, they have the option of deferring the start of the extension until 2025, correct?

[mvp 78]

We still don't really know what they're planning on this year. One could argue that if it was a 100% punt they wouldn't even have done the Giolito deal.

 

As for Casas, they have the option of deferring the start of the extension until 2025, correct?

 

Acquire Giolito and if he's fantastic you can either spin him at the deadline or offer him a QO. Also, they needed innings so that they could protect some of their younger/less experienced arms.

[notin]

Acquire Giolito and if he's fantastic you can either spin him at the deadline or offer him a QO. Also, they needed innings so that they could protect some of their younger/less experienced arms.

 

And if Giolito sucks, you try the same approach next season. As Giolito's salary and option are both relatively close to the qualifying offer amount, it is a no-brainer he would decline it...

[Bellhorn04]

Acquire Giolito and if he's fantastic you can either spin him at the deadline or offer him a QO. Also, they needed innings so that they could protect some of their younger/less experienced arms.

 

Oh I get the logic. But if he flames out you might also be stuck with a $38.5 million bill for nada, so it wasn't exactly risk-free.

[mvp 78]

Oh I get the logic. But if he flames out you might also be stuck with a $38.5 million bill for nada, so it wasn't exactly risk-free.

 

Not many risk free moves actually can provide value these days.

[notin]

Why would the Sox go over the CBT for a 2 year deal when they don't plan on competing this year? Doesn't seem to make sense to me, especially if they are working on Casas' extension too.

 

To create the illusion of trying to care so that people buy tickets?

[moonslav59]

Why would the Sox go over the CBT for a 2 year deal when they don't plan on competing this year? Doesn't seem to make sense to me, especially if they are working on Casas' extension too.

 

I don't think the Sox sign Monty.

 

BTW, cots has us $29.5M under, so we could squeak him in- maybe with a minor tweak. If we sign him, it might be more like $25M x 4 with a 5th year option and $4M buy-out making it $26M x 4 or something like $25M x 5, with no opt-out.

 

[mvp 78]

To create the illusion of trying to care so that people buy tickets?

 

We're at the point where getting Montgomery on 4/2 isn't going to push the envelope. People already heard "full throttle" and then saw the car stall out. They won't buy it. Fans will still go. Visiting fans will help fill up the park. It would have to get really ugly for a few more years before attendance is really an issue.

[mvp 78]

I don't think the Sox sign Monty.

 

BTW, cots has us $29.5M under, so we could squeak him in- maybe with a minor tweak. If we sign him, it might be more like $25M x 4 with a 5th year option and $4M buy-out making it $26M x 4 or something like $25M x 5, with no opt-out.

 

 

FO's typically don't like to go all the way up to the cap at the beginning of the season due to in season maneuvers. Also, the Casas extension is hanging out there in theory and I think they'd like to get that done and would rather do that instead of bringing Montgomery in.

 

They brought Giolito in as the cheap version of Montgomery. Sox probably wanted Montgomery in the first place, but settled for Giolito due to ownership restraint.

[moonslav59]

FO's typically don't like to go all the way up to the cap at the beginning of the season due to in season maneuvers. Also, the Casas extension is hanging out there in theory and I think they'd like to get that done and would rather do that instead of bringing Montgomery in.

 

They brought Giolito in as the cheap version of Montgomery. Sox probably wanted Montgomery in the first place, but settled for Giolito due to ownership restraint.

 

Many extensions don't kick in for a year or so.

[moonslav59]

FO's typically don't like to go all the way up to the cap at the beginning of the season due to in season maneuvers. Also, the Casas extension is hanging out there in theory and I think they'd like to get that done and would rather do that instead of bringing Montgomery in.

 

They brought Giolito in as the cheap version of Montgomery. Sox probably wanted Montgomery in the first place, but settled for Giolito due to ownership restraint.

 

Again, I do not think we sign Monty or even offer a deal more than $22M x4 or so.

 

I was just saying what I think he'll get, somewhere (else.)

 

I do think we could work out a way to make the deal have a lower AAV, so as to give us wiggle room, but even so, I doubt our plan includes adding AAV during the summer. If anything, we will shed salary- like Jansen, martin, O'Neill, Pivetta and maybe McGuire, Ref and others not part of the long term outlook.

[moonslav59]

Luke Voit released.

 

Is he a better option than Dalbec, despite no utility value and no 3B experience?

[mvp 78]

Luke Voit released.

 

Is he a better option than Dalbec, despite no utility value and no 3B experience?

 

Without 3B experience, no.

[mvp 78]

Again, I do not think we sign Monty or even offer a deal more than $22M x4 or so.

 

I was just saying what I think he'll get, somewhere (else.)

 

I do think we could work out a way to make the deal have a lower AAV, so as to give us wiggle room, but even so, I doubt our plan includes adding AAV during the summer. If anything, we will shed salary- like Jansen, martin, O'Neill, Pivetta and maybe McGuire, Ref and others not part of the long term outlook.

 

I really don't see them signing Jordan Montgomery at all. 5 year deal? No way Jose! If they were really going to sign him, it would have happened by now. At one point, I think Bradford had the likelihood at 10% and that still seems too high to me. If there are two teams in the bidding, Montgomery is going to the other team just because they probably have a better short term outlook.

[mvp 78]

Many extensions don't kick in for a year or so.

 

Kicking the extension in early reduces the AAV though.

[vegasbob]

Without 3B experience, no.

 

Using Dalbec's experience at 3B as the cutting edge for him over anybody else ( forget Voit) is an interesting take. I'm sure some of us on this site have experience at 3B . On the other hand probably not so many MLB HR's as Bobby D.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Using Dalbec's experience at 3B as the cutting edge for him over anybody else ( forget Voit) is an interesting take. I'm sure some of us on this site have experience at 3B . On the other hand probably not so many MLB HR's as Bobby D.

 

Or even hit a train with a minor league homer...

[mvp 78]

Using Dalbec's experience at 3B as the cutting edge for him over anybody else ( forget Voit) is an interesting take. I'm sure some of us on this site have experience at 3B . On the other hand probably not so many MLB HR's as Bobby D.

 

I mean, we're talking about LUKE VOIT, not someone that is exactly a catch.

[moonslav59]

I really don't see them signing Jordan Montgomery at all. 5 year deal? No way Jose! If they were really going to sign him, it would have happened by now. At one point, I think Bradford had the likelihood at 10% and that still seems too high to me. If there are two teams in the bidding, Montgomery is going to the other team just because they probably have a better short term outlook.

 

Why do you keep acting like I'm saying we will or probably will sign Monty. I've said countless times we will not.

 

I'm just saying we have the cap space to do it, if we wanted to do it. Those are two different positions that have nothing to do with each other.

 

Monty is not coming to BOS. We have the great Chase Anderson. Can we move on?

[moonslav59]

Kicking the extension in early reduces the AAV though.

 

Indeed, and in a punt season like 2024, bettering our budget situation in future years might have more value- assuming JH spends more, later.

[moonslav59]

I mean, we're talking about LUKE VOIT, not someone that is exactly a catch.

 

LOL. It's not like Dalbec vs Voit is going to make much of a difference. It's kinda like Dalbec vs Cron.