Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Hugh2]

I think it is legitimate to ask why the Red Sox , who seem to be forever in need of starting pitchers, don't draft more highly rated college pitchers. I don't think the old bromide of " draft the best player available " is a sufficient reason. Of course, high schoolers are usually cheaper, but certainly not as tested as the college athletes. It is a little dubious to call a high school kid the best player available.

 

Sox actually draft a lot more college pitchers than highschool pitchers. What they don’t do is, at least in recent years is draft them early and give them money. You can go short stop at pick #12 maybe underslot with a guy and then throw your money at pitchers with your second and third pick. Kind of similar to what they did in 2022 and it was their second 2nd pick who got the higher bonus and is a stud right now (Roman Anthony)

 

I also think there’s so much more fluidity between picks further in the draft than there is up front. For example, you probably have a pretty darn good ideal who is the best prospect at pick number 12th, maybe that is a pitcher, maybe it’s a hitter. But I don’t think these teams definitively value the guy they have ranked 50th much better than who they have 51-60, and that concept probably grows the further down you go.

 

I think you can easily go BPA, draft a hitter first (or not, maybe yoy go pitcher) and take pitchers with your next two picks.

 

What I want to see overall, is more MONEY being spent on pitching in the draft. It’s not just their first pick but rather the totality of what they do with picks 1-5

[moonslav59]

I’m all for taking the best player on the board, regardless of position. If it’s a tie, lean to pitchers.

[moonslav59]

Sox actually draft a lot more college pitchers than highschool pitchers. What they don’t do is, at least in recent years is draft them early and give them money. You can go short stop at pick #12 maybe underslot with a guy and then throw your money at pitchers with your second and third pick. Kind of similar to what they did in 2022 and it was their second 2nd pick who got the higher bonus and is a stud right now (Roman Anthony)

 

I also think there’s so much more fluidity between picks further in the draft than there is up front. For example, you probably have a pretty darn good ideal who is the best prospect at pick number 12th, maybe that is a pitcher, maybe it’s a hitter. But I don’t think these teams definitively value the guy they have ranked 50th much better than who they have 51-60, and that concept probably grows the further down you go.

 

I think you can easily go BPA, draft a hitter first (or not, maybe yoy go pitcher) and take pitchers with your next two picks.

 

What I want to see overall, is more MONEY being spent on pitching in the draft. It’s not just their first pick but rather the totality of what they do with picks 1-5

 

Well said.

[notin]

I think it is legitimate to ask why the Red Sox , who seem to be forever in need of starting pitchers, don't draft more highly rated college pitchers. I don't think the old bromide of " draft the best player available " is a sufficient reason. Of course, high schoolers are usually cheaper, but certainly not as tested as the college athletes. It is a little dubious to call a high school kid the best player available.

 

They aren’t selecting high schoolers to save money. High schoolers aren’t necessarily cheaper, because if you don’t meet their demands, they have the option of going to college. College players have much less leverage; they either sign what you offer or go play Northern League ball for a year.

 

It’s real easy to say “why not just draft more highly-rated college pitchers?” It’s not like that commodity is always available. And the best college pitcher on the board doesn’t always equate to the best option…

[notin]

Looking at the top 15 active pitchers in career bWAR.

 

Three of them (Cueto, Darvish, Quintana) were not drafted, but signed through IFA or bidding processes.

 

All of the others were selected in the top overall 18 picks in the draft, except for Lance Lynn (1st round pick 39) and Jake deGrom (9th round). All of them were drafted out of high school, but most did not sign and were later selected again out of college. The only ones to sign out of high school were Greinke, Kershaw and Bumgarner, all three of whom were top ten overall picks.

 

It’s impossible to know why each player was selected by their team. But these were all players (except deGrom) who were expected to be selected high by the agencies that rank potential and don’t care about organizational need. I do recall Sonny Gray (18th overall selection) did fall quite far considering he was among the top 5 picks on just about everyone’s list…

[notin]

It’s real easy to use hindsight to apply these new draft strategies. Everyone of us - and possibly Chaim Bloom as well - would agree to going back in time and selecting a college pitcher - specifically Bobby Miller - over Nick Yorke. But no one wants to go back and undo the success stories, which, let’s face it, are just as likely if you change strategies. How many people, for example, think the Sox should have drafted LHP Nate Savino out of the University of Virginia or RHP Mason Barnett out of Auburn over some random Florida teenage outfielder named Roman Anthony?

[mvp 78]

so you are advocating that they pick a HS SS with their 1st rd pick?

 

If they’re a guy who has slid in the draft and is the best player available, yes.

 

I think drafting a SS in 21 was good and a C in 23 was good.

[mvp 78]

Exactly my point here.

 

But no, I am not, I am saying I can see the a scenario where the Sox start drafting pitchers higher, spend more bonus money on pitching talent, but still go position player at 12 if they think the BPA is a position player.

 

I’m not advocating, I’m predicting.

 

Yes!

[mvp 78]

When they make moves to do so.

 

Is drafting the only way to get pitchers?

 

The Sox didn’t draft a single starting pitcher who made their rotation between Clay Buchholz (debuted in 2007) and Tanner Houck (debuted in 2020). Know what else they did in that time?

 

Won three World Series…

 

When’s the next one?

[mvp 78]

I think it is legitimate to ask why the Red Sox , who seem to be forever in need of starting pitchers, don't draft more highly rated college pitchers. I don't think the old bromide of " draft the best player available " is a sufficient reason. Of course, high schoolers are usually cheaper, but certainly not as tested as the college athletes. It is a little dubious to call a high school kid the best player available.

 

Risk of injury. Quicker to build up farm value through less risky bats.

[notin]

When’s the next one?

 

Hopefully it doesn’t hinge on drafting pitchers…

Edited March 11, 2024 by notin

[Randy Red Sox]

If they’re a guy who has slid in the draft and is the best player available, yes.

 

I think drafting a SS in 21 was good and a C in 23 was good.

 

i have not seen anyone on here questioning either of those picks

[notin]

i have not seen anyone on here questioning either of those picks

 

But if the Sox implement a strategy of taking more pitchers early regardless of how the draft i is going, they’re just as likely to miss out on Mayer and Teel - two “best available” players that were predicted to go higher but fell into the Sox lap - as they are to miss out on players like Yorke and Romero…

[mvp 78]

Hopefully it doesn’t hinge on drafting pitchers…

 

It hinges on having an effective starting rotation. Not sure what the plan is on getting there. We have theories, but haven't seen any action yet.

[mvp 78]

i have not seen anyone on here questioning either of those picks

 

I'm just saying that there is a scenario where the Sox should take a hitter over a pitcher in the upcoming draft. Just because there is an extreme lack of talent, doesn't mean they have to go 2021 Angels and load up on pitchers in the upcoming draft. They just need to stop completely ignoring them.

[mvp 78]

But if the Sox implement a strategy of taking more pitchers early regardless of how the draft i is going, they’re just as likely to miss out on Mayer and Teel - two “best available” players that were predicted to go higher but fell into the Sox lap - as they are to miss out on players like Yorke and Romero…

 

Yorke was a reach in the first round and Romero was a whatever pick.

 

Guys who came right after Yorke:

 

Pete Crow Armstrong

Jordan Walker

 

The pitchers drafted in the first round after Yorke haven't done anything worthwhile yet.

[notin]

It hinges on having an effective starting rotation. Not sure what the plan is on getting there. We have theories, but haven't seen any action yet.

 

And the Sox had effective rotations with minimal impact from the draft before. Many times, in fact…

[notin]

Yorke was a reach in the first round and Romero was a whatever pick.

 

Guys who came right after Yorke:

 

Pete Crow Armstrong

Jordan Walker

 

The pitchers drafted in the first round after Yorke haven't done anything worthwhile yet.

 

Bobby Miller pitched well for 124 IP. But most likely just grabbing a pitcher for the sake of grabbing a pitcher doesn’t help much.

 

But so far the two best pitchers in that draft came in rounds 4 and 5…

Edited March 11, 2024 by notin

[mvp 78]

Bobby Miller pitched well for 124 IP.

 

But so far the two best pitchers in that draft came in rounds 4 and 5…

 

Sorry, missed him. Generic ballplayer name was overlooked.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And the Sox had effective rotations with minimal impact from the draft before. Many times, in fact…

 

It's true, and their status as a last place contender the past five years (they are the favorites, again), wouldn't necessarily reflect the glaring fact from the chart on Hugh's link that Boston also ranks dead last in investing in pitching prospects since 2018.

 

But what continues to be frustrating is that everyone -- fans, media, and any team builders in the industry -- knows that pitching is the key element in the sport, and for improvement.

[notin]

It's true, and their status as a last place contender the past five years (they are the favorites, again), wouldn't necessarily reflect the glaring fact from the chart on Hugh's link that Boston also ranks dead last in investing in pitching prospects since 2018.

 

But what continues to be frustrating is that everyone -- fans, media, and any team builders in the industry -- knows that pitching is the key element in the sport, and for improvement.

 

I think the weak drafting would be less of a concern if the Sox supplemented their staff with uninjured free agents. And not guys like Criswell...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think the weak drafting would be less of a concern if the Sox supplemented their staff with uninjured free agents. And not guys like Criswell...

 

Like I said -- in my opinion -- the risks of almost annual breakdowns or interminable IL stints of free agents signed by the Red Sox are what made the cost of such players so attractive to the business plan of this front office the past half decade.

 

But we may be mispronouncing today' starting pitcher -- or Boston has concealed him as a compound word... Cooper is a nod to nostalgia for former Sox "All-Stars" Cecil and Scott. But it's not Criswell; it's Cry Swell... (get well soon, CHB).

[notin]

Like I said -- in my opinion -- the risks of almost annual breakdowns or interminable IL stints of free agents signed by the Red Sox are what made the cost of such players so attractive to the business plan of this front office the past half decade.

 

But we may be mispronouncing today' starting pitcher -- or Boston has concealed him as a compound word... Cooper is a nod to nostalgia for former Sox "All-Stars" Cecil and Scott. But it's not Criswell; it's Cry Swell... (get well soon, CHB).

 

The risk for IL stints and missed seasons from the heavily-priced free agent crowd certainly is a factor. But the Sox don't need to go out and sign every David Price that hits the market. Even someone like Mike Lorenzen, unexciting as he is, still represents an upgrade on this current roster and apparently is only asking for a two year deal.

 

I also think backfill the bullpen as relievers get "promoted" to the rotation might not be such a bad way to go, but this is something the Sox have steadfastly avoided for multiple seasons now. And at this point, I'm not so sure it makes all that much sense. A couple days ago, Ryne Stanek was sitting out there waiting to (as it turns out) cheaply supply several effective relief innings. But who is left now? Codi Heuer? Anthony Reyes? Talented as they are, both guys do come with some assembly required. After them, I think the best option might be Branthony Bassberger or whatever their names are if you actually think they are two different pitchers...

[mvp 78]

Like I said -- in my opinion -- the risks of almost annual breakdowns or interminable IL stints of free agents signed by the Red Sox are what made the cost of such players so attractive to the business plan of this front office the past half decade.

 

But we may be mispronouncing today' starting pitcher -- or Boston has concealed him as a compound word... Cooper is a nod to nostalgia for former Sox "All-Stars" Cecil and Scott. But it's not Criswell; it's Cry Swell... (get well soon, CHB).

 

Cries-well

[mvp 78]

Sox are looking at Houck/Whitlock/Crawford and thinking that they can give them what Lorenzen can do for much less cost. I just don't think Whitlock is going to workout and they are going to need SOMEBODY to fill innings. Reports out of MiLB camp are very good about Fitts, but that's not an option until much later this season if at all.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sox are looking at Houck/Whitlock/Crawford and thinking that they can give them what Lorenzen can do for much less cost. I just don't think Whitlock is going to workout and they are going to need SOMEBODY to fill innings. Reports out of MiLB camp are very good about Fitts, but that's not an option until much later this season if at all.

 

Crawford could at least be a picture card coming out of this shuffle.

 

Youk said on the weekend broadcast, "How Crawford goes this year, so goes the Red Sox."

 

He was particularly impressed with Crawford's four-seamer at the top of the zone.

[mvp 78]

Crawford could at least be a picture card coming out of this shuffle.

 

Youk said on the weekend broadcast, "How Crawford goes this year, so goes the Red Sox."

 

He was particularly impressed with Crawford's four-seamer at the top of the zone.

 

I think he's solid and should be at least a back end of the rotation guy for the Sox for the next few years.

[moonslav59]

Sox are looking at Houck/Whitlock/Crawford and thinking that they can give them what Lorenzen can do for much less cost. I just don't think Whitlock is going to workout and they are going to need SOMEBODY to fill innings. Reports out of MiLB camp are very good about Fitts, but that's not an option until much later this season if at all.

 

It looks like 2024 will be a grand experiment to find out which and how many SPers we can count on going forward. Some may end up bring TBD’d, but we should know a lot more about…

 

Bello as a #2 or 3 or whatever.

Crawford was for real in’23 or not.

Pivetta extended or not.

Whitlock’s question is more about duarabilty and eating innings.

Houck could stick as a SPer, even if he does not improve his game after the first 18 batters, but he still has to pitch better than ‘23, IMO.

I’m dead set against Wink as a SPer, but it looks like he will get a shot, st some point. He may surprise.

Fitts could show he belongs, but he may not even be slotted #7, as of now. We may see Criswell or maybe even Murphy or Walter before him.

Wikelman and Gambrel getting looks would mean the season is a disaster.

[mvp 78]

It looks like 2024 will be a grand experiment to find out which and how many SPers we can count on going forward. Some may end up bring TBD’d, but we should know a lot more about…

 

Bello as a #2 or 3 or whatever.

Crawford was for real in’23 or not.

Pivetta extended or not.

Whitlock’s question is more about duarabilty and eating innings.

Houck could stick as a SPer, even if he does not improve his game after the first 18 batters, but he still has to pitch better than ‘23, IMO.

I’m dead set against Wink as a SPer, but it looks like he will get a shot, st some point. He may surprise.

Fitts could show he belongs, but he may not even be slotted #7, as of now. We may see Criswell or maybe even Murphy or Walter before him.

Wikelman and Gambrel getting looks would mean the season is a disaster.

 

I don't think they'll extend Pivetta, but if he really shows off his sweeper again, he could make a good payday in FA.

 

Whitlock just has not be impressive at all since his injury in '22. Sox need to figure him out. I don't know why they are screwing around with him.

 

Fitts isn't slotted as the #7 right now. I was just bringing him up as a guy that could be something eventually. I agree with the guys you have ahead of him, but don't think Wikelman or Gambrel pitching this year means disaster. They're already slotted for last place. I'm not sure giving other guys emergency starts or Wikelman advancing to MLB earlier than expected is a bad thing.

[moonslav59]

I don't think they'll extend Pivetta, but if he really shows off his sweeper again, he could make a good payday in FA.

 

Whitlock just has not be impressive at all since his injury in '22. Sox need to figure him out. I don't know why they are screwing around with him.

 

Fitts isn't slotted as the #7 right now. I was just bringing him up as a guy that could be something eventually. I agree with the guys you have ahead of him, but don't think Wikelman or Gambrel pitching this year means disaster. They're already slotted for last place. I'm not sure giving other guys emergency starts or Wikelman advancing to MLB earlier than expected is a bad thing.

 

I wasn’t implying you had Fitts at #7, but I do think he might get a look.

 

My point about disaster means that if we do go 8-9-10 deep for a SPer to get more than just a fill in start, it would mean injuries or failures by our top 5-6-7 SPers.

 

I do think we will limit GS and IP with a few of our top 5 SPers, so using our 6-7-8 SPers may not mean disaster, but I do think if we end up going beyond that, it will mean we are out of it by August anc are just throwing things against the wall