Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

The only way I'm okay with a CF platoon, is if Abreu plays enough games in LF and RF to help him grow, or I suppose, Rafaela plays some at 2B and back-up SS and is able to get over 500 PAs in the bigs.

 

I doubt we trade Ref, so I think only one rookie OF'er makes the 26 in April. If we trade Dugo, that changes. If we trade Dugo and add Duvall, we may view Duvall as a 120-130 game OF'er and not the 144-155 OF Dugo is. Maybe we keep both with Duvall and not Dugo.

 

With Yoshida at DH and maybe back up LF'er that would give us 6 players who primarily are OF/DHs. I don't see that happening.

 

Knowing the Sox, they will play Rafaela out of position for half the games.

 

I agree. Limit the rookie OF to whoever wins the job. If the Sox are adding a RH bat, get one that can play RF at Fenway. Sign two SPs.

 

And play ball!! (Assuming no ST injuries, which there usually are.)

[notin]

The only way I'm okay with a CF platoon, is if Abreu plays enough games in LF and RF to help him grow, or I suppose, Rafaela plays some at 2B and back-up SS and is able to get over 500 PAs in the bigs.

 

I doubt we trade Ref, so I think only one rookie OF'er makes the 26 in April. If we trade Dugo, that changes. If we trade Dugo and add Duvall, we may view Duvall as a 120-130 game OF'er and not the 144-155 OF Dugo is. Maybe we keep both with Duvall and not Dugo.

 

With Yoshida at DH and maybe back up LF'er that would give us 6 players who primarily are OF/DHs. I don't see that happening.

 

Knowing the Sox, they will play Rafaela out of position for half the games.

 

 

If we keep Cora, no one plays 155 games. Except maybe Winckowski…

[mvp 78]

I agree. Limit the rookie OF to whoever wins the job. If the Sox are adding a RH bat, get one that can play RF at Fenway. Sign two SPs.

 

And play ball!! (Assuming no ST injuries, which there usually are.)

 

I've heard rumblings about Rafaela being a super UTIL for CF/2B/SS.

[Hugh2]

Trade Alex Verdugo for prospects with a third team, trade for Fernando Tatis Jr, Then sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Aaron Nola.

 

Your lineup by the end of 2024 could be

 

Wong

Casas

Story

Mayer

Devers

Duran

Rafaela

Tatatis Jr.

Yoshida

 

Bench: Ref/Reyes/McGuire/Abreu

 

Rotation

 

Yama

Nola

Bello

Sale

Crawford

 

 

Bullpen: Whitlock/Houck/Winc/Janses/Martin/Bernardino/Schreiber/Murphy

[moonslav59]

Trade Alex Verdugo for prospects with a third team, trade for Fernando Tatis Jr, Then sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Aaron Nola.

 

Your lineup by the end of 2024 could be

 

Wong

Casas

Story

Mayer

Devers

Duran

Rafaela

Tatatis Jr.

Yoshida

 

Bench: Ref/Reyes/McGuire/Abreu

 

Rotation

 

Yama

Nola

Bello

Sale

Crawford

 

 

Bullpen: Whitlock/Houck/Winc/Janses/Martin/Bernardino/Schreiber/Murphy

 

I'd sub Pivetta as the #5 and keep Crawford in the pen. (Certainly, Pivetta in the pen over Murphy.)

 

Mayer is not playing SS for the Sox in 2024- likely not even in September.

[Hugh2]

I'd sub Pivetta as the #5 and keep Crawford in the pen. (Certainly, Pivetta in the pen over Murphy.)

 

Mayer is not playing SS for the Sox in 2024- likely not even in September.

 

I forgot about Pivetta.

 

If Mayer hits the ground running in Portland in 2024, he will be knocking on the door end of year. If there's a hole, and I suspect there will be, he will get some playing time. A la Bogaerts 2013

[mvp 78]

In order to make a trade on BTV work:

 

Mayer

Bleis

Anthony

Yorke

Houck

Bello

[Hugh2]

In order to make a trade on BTV work:

 

Mayer

Bleis

Anthony

Yorke

Houck

Bello

 

As we all know BTV is king.

[mvp 78]

As we all know BTV is king.

 

What do you think is a reasonable trade for Tatis?

[Hugh2]

If the rumors are true and SD wants to shed payroll I don't think the cost is anywhere near that high.

[Hugh2]

What do you think is a reasonable trade for Tatis?

 

Maybe Soto is more available from SD

[moonslav59]

I forgot about Pivetta.

 

If Mayer hits the ground running in Portland in 2024, he will be knocking on the door end of year. If there's a hole, and I suspect there will be, he will get some playing time. A la Bogaerts 2013

 

Mayer will not come close to playing the most at SS in 2024, so I would not list him. Reyes will get more time at SS than Mayer.

 

I'm not even sure Mayer is not traded.

[Hugh2]

Mayer will not come close to playing the most at SS in 2024, so I would not list him. Reyes will get more time at SS than Mayer.

 

I'm not even sure Mayer is not traded.

 

I never said most, I said this could be the lineup by the end of the year.

[mvp 78]

Maybe Soto is more available from SD

 

I would agree about that 100%.

 

Tatis has a very reasonable AAV for the next 11 years and once moved off of SS, he became an elite defensive RFer.

 

Soto is a bad defender and only has one year remaining. In order to re-sign him long term, it's going to take a massive contract, one much larger than Tatis'. Soto is a great player, but Padres are trying to cut costs after a season where they went overboard and underperformed.

[notin]

Maybe Soto is more available from SD

 

Definitely.

 

Soto has one year left. Tatis is under control for another decade…

[notin]

If the rumors are true and SD wants to shed payroll I don't think the cost is anywhere near that high.

 

Despite the Sox long history of trading with the Padres and hiring their front office folks, any trade for Tatis will be open to 28 other teams.

 

Granted he is too pricey for several already. But it only takes one to beat the Sox offer…

[notin]

As we all know BTV is king.

 

Actually BTV has proven to accurately assess trade value well over 50% of the time. I wouldn’t dismiss their system so hastily. Not like either of us could do better…

[moonslav59]

I never said most, I said this could be the lineup by the end of the year.

 

Okay. I understand.

 

Your list was for "by the end of the year."

[Hugh2]

Actually BTV has proven to accurately assess trade value well over 50% of the time. I wouldn’t dismiss their system so hastily. Not like either of us could do better…

 

Yes 50% isn't a great rate, unless you're playing baseball I suppose.

 

There's just so many variables that I don't feel that take into account.

 

It's like selling a house, I don't care what the market says, if a distressed asset is known to be distressed.....the value goes down.

 

Still, Soto seems like a more reasonable target. He would be a nice upgrade over Verdugo

[moonslav59]

Actually BTV has proven to accurately assess trade value well over 50% of the time. I wouldn’t dismiss their system so hastily. Not like either of us could do better…

 

I do think their high end player values are too high.

 

They also need to make adjustments, more often.

 

The Yoshida value is absurd. I'm giving them the benefit of doubt, it just needs adjustment.

[Hugh2]

Despite the Sox long history of trading with the Padres and hiring their front office folks, any trade for Tatis will be open to 28 other teams.

 

Granted he is too pricey for several already. But it only takes one to beat the Sox offer…

 

I never said the price would not be high, I just don't think it's Mayer, Bleis, Anthony, Yorke, Bello, Houck high. If it is, then he's staying in SD because no one would pay that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd sub Pivetta as the #5 and keep Crawford in the pen. (Certainly, Pivetta in the pen over Murphy.)

 

Mayer is not playing SS for the Sox in 2024- likely not even in September.

 

Why not? Is it because you think he'll be traded, or not ready? Lawlar is playing in the playoffs right now.

[moonslav59]

I never said the price would not be high, I just don't think it's Mayer, Bleis, Anthony, Yorke, Bello, Houck high. If it is, then he's staying in SD because no one would pay that.

 

I would not give three form that list of 6, unless 2 were named: Bleis, Yorke and Houck. I might give Mayer (the could use a 13th SS) plus Bleis, Yorke and Houck.

 

Giving up Bello seems totally counter-productive, as the rotation is our biggest need. We'd then need to sign or trade for 4 SP'ers or more.

 

Anthony and Teel are my favorite prospects, now. I will never say "untouchable," but mt fingers are clenched around them, tightly.

[mvp 78]

Actually BTV has proven to accurately assess trade value well over 50% of the time. I wouldn’t dismiss their system so hastily. Not like either of us could do better…

 

It may not take the entire package I posted, but someone would have to show me something more "realistic" before I put down the BTV one. I only posted the BTV as a reference point for the massive haul it would take to get a 24 year old superstar on a below market contract for 11 years.

[mvp 78]

I do think their high end player values are too high.

 

They also need to make adjustments, more often.

 

The Yoshida value is absurd. I'm giving them the benefit of doubt, it just needs adjustment.

 

Then what do YOU think is a reasonable value?

[moonslav59]

Why not? Is it because you think he'll be traded, or not ready? Lawlar is playing in the playoffs right now.

 

I think he has too much to learn. I'm not saying it's impossible. Certainly, he could come out of the gates doing very well, and change my opinion, but as of now, I think he needs more time.

 

He's only 20 and played 78 games, this year and 91, last year. I don't see him getting many games at SS at the MLB level in 2024.

[mvp 78]

Why not? Is it because you think he'll be traded, or not ready? Lawlar is playing in the playoffs right now.

 

Should he be? He had a 335 MLB OPS in the regular season with a 32% k rate.

[moonslav59]

Then what do YOU think is a reasonable value?

 

For Yoshida? $-10-15M. Zero, at best.

For Tatis? From 225 to maybe 135-150ish. (I don't think he's worth 9 Bellos, but maybe they have Bello rated too lowly.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Should he be? He had a 335 MLB OPS in the regular season with a 32% k rate.

 

I dunno -- but the guy who promoted Lawlar, Arizona GM Mike Hazen, is more highly regarded in the industry than I am.

 

Just to prove it last week, the D-backs extended Hazen to run things through the end of the decade.

 

Some suspect that was not a coincidence, with the Red Sox looking for a new CBOGMEIEIO.

[mvp 78]

For Yoshida? $-10-15M. Zero, at best.

For Tatis? From 225 to maybe 135-150ish. (I don't think he's worth 9 Bellos, but maybe they have Bello rated too lowly.)

 

So Anthony/Bleis/Mayer for Tatis?