Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

There were zealots who thought that rotation was so deep and loaded -- with Cy Young arms like it was still 2017.

 

There were others who knew from Day One that plan was a backfire waiting to happen -- just like when the actually better aging, injury-prone rotation from '22 inevitably broke down.

 

 

Who?

 

I think the consensus was “maybe, if Sale holds up”…

[notin]

Yes, I was one of those who said no worries, Kluber can do the job!

 

Pollyanna really got her ass kicked this year by Bloom. He left the poor girl for dead.

 

I was OK with the Kluber signing. Still am. The problem was that Plan B seemed to be to just Bloom shrugging his shoulders and hoping things get better on their own…

[Elktonnick]

I was OK with the Kluber signing. Still am. The problem was that Plan B seemed to be to just Bloom shrugging his shoulders and hoping things get better on their own…

That was PLAN A.

[mvp 78]

There were zealots who thought that rotation was so deep and loaded -- with Cy Young arms like it was still 2017.

 

There were others who knew from Day One that plan was a backfire waiting to happen -- just like when the actually better aging, injury-prone rotation from '22 inevitably broke down.

 

I don't remember any zealots who made it out to be a CY rotation. I think people said that the rotation had upside, which it did. It certainly also had a dumpster fire downside as noted previously.

[moonslav59]

And if it was a 4 year plan, his inattention to the 2023 rotation is beyond mind-boggling.

 

It was clearly not attended to, but if the plan was for setting up the foundation, first, it's not "mind-boggling" to me that we waited one more year.

 

If we don't go "all in" on the rotation, this year, I'll be extremely bummed.

 

[mvp 78]

Not bringing in Mondesi does allow you to upgrade from Kluber to Mike Clevinger or Noah Syndergaard…

 

So you're saying there's a chance.

[moonslav59]

Who?

 

I think the consensus was “maybe, if Sale holds up”…

 

Nobody can ever even name one poster.

 

Nobody said our rotation was deep or loaded.

 

I said we were deep with mediocre pitchers. That's about as close as I know anyone said.

[mvp 78]

Yes, I was one of those who said no worries, Kluber can do the job!

 

Pollyanna really got her ass kicked this year by Bloom. He left the poor girl for dead.

 

Even if Kluber worked out, the rotation still would have failed.

[moonslav59]

Even if Kluber worked out, the rotation still would have failed.

 

If he gave us 30 GS and 190 IP, it would have taken a big strain off the pen, and kept 1-3 pitchers from ever starting a game.

 

It's hard to know, for sure, but he'd have had to have had a 3.20 ERA for 200 IP to get us into the playoffs, and even that wouldn't have been a clear thing.

[mvp 78]

If he gave us 30 GS and 190 IP, it would have taken a big strain off the pen, and kept 1-3 pitchers from ever starting a game.

 

It's hard to know, for sure, but he'd have had to have had a 3.20 ERA for 200 IP to get us into the playoffs, and even that wouldn't have been a clear thing.

 

You expected MORE innings than he was able to provide TB last year?

[moonslav59]

You expected MORE innings than he was able to provide TB last year?

 

Where did I say I expected it?

 

You frequently confuse the conditional tense with absolute statements.

 

I just said IF.....

 

He went 31 GS and 164 IP, last year at 4.34.

 

Had he given us that, yes, not a big enough difference to help the overall grade for the staff.

 

[mvp 78]

He went 31 GS and 164 IP, last year at 4.34.

 

Had he given us that, yes, not a big enough difference to help the overall grade for the staff.

 

Thank you for agreeing with me.

[moonslav59]

Thank you for agreeing with me.

 

Not sure why you care if I agree, but it would be nice, if you'd not take my "what ifs" as saying I expected it.

[notin]

As it turns out, Eflin and Senga were the best values in the 2023 free agent market for starters.

 

Senga was really just a wild card. I’m sure the Sox knew a lot more about him than me. Eflin reportedly really wanted to be back home in Florida. The Sox didn’t even get outbid; they got matched and Eflin apparently immediately accepted.

 

Bringing back Eovaldi was the bigger opportunity that was missed, because he wasn’t using the Sox to set his value…

[mvp 78]

Senga was really just a wild card. I’m sure the Sox knew a lot more about him than me. Eflin reportedly really wanted to be back home in Florida. The Sox didn’t even get outbid; they got matched and Eflin apparently immediately accepted.

 

Bringing back Eovaldi was the bigger opportunity that was missed, because he wasn’t using the Sox to set his value…

 

Eovaldi specifically came back to the Sox after getting the TEX offer and Bloom said no.

[sk7326]

It was clearly not attended to, but if the plan was for setting up the foundation, first, it's not "mind-boggling" to me that we waited one more year.

 

If we don't go "all in" on the rotation, this year, I'll be extremely bummed.

 

 

When the org and its fans pay what they do - it has been a number of years without true boss-level contenderdom. There have been times in the past where the front office understood the balance between present and future - but that has been a long ways in the rearview mirror.

[moonslav59]

When the org and its fans pay what they do - it has been a number of years without true boss-level contenderdom. There have been times in the past where the front office understood the balance between present and future - but that has been a long ways in the rearview mirror.

 

Ineed, and this actually started in 2019, or at least at the deadline 2019.

[Maxbialystock]

Eovaldi specifically came back to the Sox after getting the TEX offer and Bloom said no.

 

I agree completely with anyone who says Nate Eovaldi is having a terrific season this year with the Rangers. In fact, it's far and away his best season ever.

 

And that's my point. For whatever reason, I believe the Rangers--like the Dodgers and maybe other teams--know more about pitching than the Sox do. I don't know what they did, but it is clear to me the Rangers fixed something about how Eovaldi pitches.

 

I therefore believe that, had the Sox resigned Eovaldi for more than $34M for two seasons--the contract he has now--his ERA this season with the Sox would be around 3.90 vs. the 2.90 it is with Texas. Also think he would have missed some starts--as he did with the Sox and has already with the Rangers.

Edited September 13, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[Randy Red Sox]

It was clearly not attended to, but if the plan was for setting up the foundation, first, it's not "mind-boggling" to me that we waited one more year.

 

If we don't go "all in" on the rotation, this year, I'll be extremely bummed.

 

 

Prepare to be extremely bummed then. I think they will be in on Yamamoto but likely get outbid. If that happens I can see them going after 1 of Snell, Nola, Geay or Montgomery but settle for the last one to be signed in hopes of a discount. I am not sure any of those guys will be worth what they will likely get.

[Maxbialystock]

When the org and its fans pay what they do - it has been a number of years without true boss-level contenderdom. There have been times in the past where the front office understood the balance between present and future - but that has been a long ways in the rearview mirror.

 

Excuse me. Does "a long ways in the rearview mirror" include the 2021 season, which was 2 years ago and a season in which the Sox got to the ALCS after beating the Yankees and the 100 win Rays to get there?

[sk7326]

Ineed, and this actually started in 2019, or at least at the deadline 2019.

 

I'd go before - the attitude heading into 2019. The team was one of the greatest teams in baseball history - full stop. But the moves and instincts were - at least from my keyboard - of the ilk of "we need to squeeze every drop out of this superstar core for as long as it is possible". There was not that instinct like the 2005 Red Sox who (granted, the move did not work) took that team and still decided to try to fix its weakest positions with an All-Star. And of course, if they were going to make the moves they have made/not made in the interim, they should have traded Mookie at the deadline.

[sk7326]

Excuse me. Does "a long ways in the rearview mirror" include the 2021 season, which was 2 years ago and a season in which the Sox got to the ALCS after beating the Yankees and the 100 win Rays to get there?

 

If you get into the tournament, you can win it. That is why baseball is awesome. The team in 2021 was terrific, but also had a number of right-tailed outcomes ... Kike in particular, as well as a healthy Eovaldi season. But if you went into 2021 with the ex ante feeling that Dodgers fans have felt every day for the last 6 years or so, you are much more of a Nostradamus than I.

[sk7326]

I agree completely with anyone who says Nate Eovaldi is having a terrific season this year with the Rangers. In fact, it's far and away his best season ever.

 

And that's my point. For whatever reason, I believe the Rangers--like the Dodgers and maybe other teams--know more about pitching than the Sox do. I don't know what they did, but it is clear to me the Rangers fixed something about how Eovaldi pitches.

 

I therefore believe that, had the Sox resigned Eovaldi for more than $34M for two seasons--the contract he has now--his ERA this season with the Sox would be around 3.90 vs. the 2.90 it is with Texas. Also think he would have missed some starts--as he did with the Sox and has already with the Rangers.

 

The Rangers didn't fix anything ... Eovaldi in 2021 was one of the best pitchers in the American League. When Eovaldi's arm has remained attached to his body, he has been one of the best starting pitchers in the league. The problem has been how infrequent that has happened.

[Dipre]

Prepare to be extremely bummed then. I think they will be in on Yamamoto but likely get outbid. If that happens I can see them going after 1 of Snell, Nola, Geay or Montgomery but settle for the last one to be signed in hopes of a discount. I am not sure any of those guys will be worth what they will likely get.

 

Based on what?

[mvp 78]

The Rangers didn't fix anything ... Eovaldi in 2021 was one of the best pitchers in the American League. When Eovaldi's arm has remained attached to his body, he has been one of the best starting pitchers in the league. The problem has been how infrequent that has happened.

 

With Eovaldi, it was his health holding him back, not the Red Sox. Yes, 2021 was comparable to what he was doing this way.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I therefore believe that, had the Sox resigned Eovaldi for more than $34M for two seasons--the contract he has now--his ERA this season with the Sox would be around 3.90 vs. the 2.90 it is with Texas. Also think he would have missed some starts--as he did with the Sox and has already with the Rangers.

 

Nate would definitely give up more earned runs in Boston, because every Fenway ground ball that bounced over or under a Red Sox infielder's glove this year was ruled a base hit.

[moonslav59]

Prepare to be extremely bummed then. I think they will be in on Yamamoto but likely get outbid. If that happens I can see them going after 1 of Snell, Nola, Geay or Montgomery but settle for the last one to be signed in hopes of a discount. I am not sure any of those guys will be worth what they will likely get.

 

I am "prepared to be bummed." I've given up hoping our spending patterns will change, despite still thinking it will, at some point.

 

I do think Yamamoto might be one of our best chances, especially, if his friend Yoshida has good things to say about Boston. (Let's hope he doesn't read Bell's posts... LOL.)

 

Big FA SP signings are, at best, 50-50 gambles.

 

IMO, trades have a better hit rate, but giving up promising prospects goes against one of the other priorities, the team seems to value.

 

Who knows?

[moonslav59]

I'd go before - the attitude heading into 2019. The team was one of the greatest teams in baseball history - full stop. But the moves and instincts were - at least from my keyboard - of the ilk of "we need to squeeze every drop out of this superstar core for as long as it is possible". There was not that instinct like the 2005 Red Sox who (granted, the move did not work) took that team and still decided to try to fix its weakest positions with an All-Star. And of course, if they were going to make the moves they have made/not made in the interim, they should have traded Mookie at the deadline.

 

We did decide to not bring back Kimbrell and Kelly, and may have also decided to not bring back Mookie, once we extended Bogey, Sale and Nate.

 

I chose to use the starting point as the inactive 2019 deadline, because we did spend a lot on those 3 extensions. That was more "new" money spent than several years afterwards, combined.

 

Certainly saying the winter before 2019 was the start is a valid point.

[oldtimer]

What is wrong with a starting outfield of Rafaela in RF, Duran in CF, Abreu in LF with Yoshida as DH/OF(Util) in 2024? Keep Refsnyder and trade Verdugo and don't compete to sign Duvall to a multi-year contract starting at age 35. Saves money for pitching, which is our greatest need.

[Bellhorn04]

What is wrong with a starting outfield of Rafaela in RF, Duran in CF, Abreu in LF with Yoshida as DH/OF(Util) in 2024? Keep Refsnyder and trade Verdugo and don't compete to sign Duvall to a multi-year contract starting at age 35. Saves money for pitching, which is our greatest need.

 

Re-signing Duvall might not be super-expensive.