Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

Just "rest" him until 2025.

 

Then DFA him. Designated For Affliction…

[moonslav59]

We can argue for months about my numbers being wrong, but play along...

 

Let's say JH allows $50M AAV to be spent, this winter, I suppose it could be $70M, if he allows us to spend up to the second line, but let's go with $50M AAV: you be the GM:

 

$30M x 2 Kershaw

$25M x 7 Nola

$25M x 1 Morton

$25M x 6 Bellinger (LHB)

$22M x 6 Snell

$22M x 4 Gray

$20M x 6 ERod

$20M x 4 Stroman

$20M x 5 Teoscar Hern

$18M x 6 Montgomery

$16M x 5 J Hader

$16M x 4 Wacha

$16M x 4 Giolito

$15M x 5 Chapman (3B)

$15M x 2 A Cobb

$15M x 2 L Lynn

$14M x 3 Conforto

$13M x 2 Kepler

$12M x 3 B Keller

$12M x 2 Renfroe

$12M x 2 J Turner

$12M x 2 K Gibson, Stripling, J Flaherty

$10M x 2 Paxton, Lorenzen, Cleninger, Heany, S Lugo

$10M x 3 Duvall, Michael Taylor

$10M x 1 Greinke, Severino, Maeda, M Perez

$8M x 2 R Grossman

 

I probably missed a few and got some numbers way off.

[Duran Is The Man]

We can argue for months about my numbers being wrong, but play along...

 

Let's say JH allows $50M AAV to be spent, this winter, I suppose it could be $70M, if he allows us to spend up to the second line, but let's go with $50M AAV: you be the GM:

 

$30M x 2 Kershaw

$25M x 7 Nola

$25M x 1 Morton

$25M x 6 Bellinger (LHB)

$22M x 6 Snell

$22M x 4 Gray

$20M x 6 ERod

$20M x 4 Stroman

$20M x 5 Teoscar Hern

$18M x 6 Montgomery

$16M x 5 J Hader

$16M x 4 Wacha

$16M x 4 Giolito

$15M x 5 Chapman (3B)

$15M x 2 A Cobb

$15M x 2 L Lynn

$14M x 3 Conforto

$13M x 2 Kepler

$12M x 3 B Keller

$12M x 2 Renfroe

$12M x 2 J Turner

$12M x 2 K Gibson, Stripling, J Flaherty

$10M x 2 Paxton, Lorenzen, Cleninger, Heany, S Lugo

$10M x 3 Duvall, Michael Taylor

$10M x 1 Greinke, Severino, Maeda, M Perez

$8M x 2 R Grossman

 

I probably missed a few and got some numbers way off.

 

i'm going with Snell, Nola and Bellinger. screw the budget.

[moonslav59]

i'm going with Snell, Nola and Bellinger. screw the budget.

 

Might be able to do that, if JH sets the second line as the limit.

 

If I'm spending $72M, it's not on a lefty bat.

 

$22M Gray

$22M Snell

$18M Montgomery

$10M Duvall

 

[Duran Is The Man]

Might be able to do that, if JH sets the second line as the limit.

 

If I'm spending $72M, it's not on a lefty bat.

 

$22M Gray

$22M Snell

$18M Montgomery

$10M Duvall

 

 

LOL, yeah....your "signings" do make more sense, considering we really only have one starter in Bello.

[Jasonbay44]

I feel like Snell is going to get a lot more than 22 million a year.

[notin]

I feel like Snell is going to get a lot more than 22 million a year.

 

Especially if he wins his second Cy Young.

 

I do have my doubts a pitcher with even one Cy Young is willing to settle for Chris Bassitt money…

Edited September 12, 2023 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

Snell should be more like $28 mill per annum.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Especially if he wins his second Cy Young.

 

I do have my doubts a pitcher with even one Cy Young is willing to settle for Chris Bassitt money…

 

Kluber won two, and took the Bloom minimum!

[notin]

Kluber won two, and took the Bloom minimum!

 

Right.

 

So clearly Snell will be looking for a one year $10mill contract…

[notin]

Snell should be more like $28 mill per annum.

 

At a minimum he gets more than Rodon, who got a $27mill AAV.

 

Take home that second Cy Young, he might be a $30-33mill AAV pitcher…

[Bellhorn04]

Right.

 

So clearly Snell will be looking for a one year $10mill contract…

 

Where's your sense of 5 Gloves humor?

[moonslav59]

I feel like Snell is going to get a lot more than 22 million a year.

 

Probably, but I did give him 6 years. He might get $26M x 4 or 5.

[Bellhorn04]

Probably, but I did give him 6 years. He might get $26M x 4 or 5.

 

Why wouldn't he get at least much as Rodon?

[moonslav59]

GMs do often pay a lot more based on most recent numbers, but I do think they may be cautious with Snell.

 

4.1 BB/9 career and 5.1 in 2023.

1.25 WHIP career and 1.26 in 2023.

 

Yes, that shiny 2.52 ERA screams of greatness, as did his league leading 1.89 ERA way back in 2018, but in between, his numbers were not close to Cy Young, and the sample size is his 4 more recent seasons prior to 2023:

 

3.85 ERA, but only a 104 ERA+

1.257 WHIP

3.9 BB/9

85 GS out of a possible 114

414 IP out of maybe 660 at a 200 IP/yr rate.

 

I want this guy, but it's hard to know what GM are going to offer, this winter. Someone will likely offer way more than Bloom does.

[moonslav59]

Why wouldn't he get at least much as Rodon?

 

Like I said, some of my numbers are probably way off.

 

You are right: he should get more money and the same or more years from some dumb GM like Cashman.

[Bellhorn04]

Once again, every expensive free agent pitcher will carry a lot of risk.

[Hugh2]

We can argue for months about my numbers being wrong, but play along...

 

Let's say JH allows $50M AAV to be spent, this winter, I suppose it could be $70M, if he allows us to spend up to the second line, but let's go with $50M AAV: you be the GM:

 

$30M x 2 Kershaw

$25M x 7 Nola

$25M x 1 Morton

$25M x 6 Bellinger (LHB)

$22M x 6 Snell

$22M x 4 Gray

$20M x 6 ERod

$20M x 4 Stroman

$20M x 5 Teoscar Hern

$18M x 6 Montgomery

$16M x 5 J Hader

$16M x 4 Wacha

$16M x 4 Giolito

$15M x 5 Chapman (3B)

$15M x 2 A Cobb

$15M x 2 L Lynn

$14M x 3 Conforto

$13M x 2 Kepler

$12M x 3 B Keller

$12M x 2 Renfroe

$12M x 2 J Turner

$12M x 2 K Gibson, Stripling, J Flaherty

$10M x 2 Paxton, Lorenzen, Cleninger, Heany, S Lugo

$10M x 3 Duvall, Michael Taylor

$10M x 1 Greinke, Severino, Maeda, M Perez

$8M x 2 R Grossman

 

I probably missed a few and got some numbers way off.

 

If you go past the first line, it's fair to assume I have up until the next to play with so I'm spending over 50 mil. And I'd gamble they will this offseason, although I won't try to predict who they actually sign but for the fun of it.

 

Yamamoto $25 million

Montgomery $20 million

Duval $12 million

 

Look at that I only spent $57, but of course, there will be a few smaller signings that probably add up to another 15-20 million, or perhaps we see an extension or two.

 

A few months ago I would have loved to put Urias on that list.

[Hugh2]

Why wouldn't he get at least much as Rodon?

 

He should get more than Rodon.

[Hugh2]

THat's a pretty sexy rotation.

 

Yamamoto

Chris Sale

Bryan Bello

Jordan Montgomery

Kutter Crawford/Nick Pivetta

 

Pushes Whitlock/Houck to the pen.

 

That's a really good rotation, especially if Yama is 75% as good as they say and if Sale is healthy that could be one of the best rotations in baseball.

[Bellhorn04]

THat's a pretty sexy rotation.

 

Yamamoto

Chris Sale

Bryan Bello

Jordan Montgomery

Kutter Crawford/Nick Pivetta

 

Pushes Whitlock/Houck to the pen.

 

That's a really good rotation, especially if Yama is 75% as good as they say and if Sale is healthy that could be one of the best rotations in baseball.

 

Hate to say it, but Sale might be done.

[Hugh2]

Hate to say it, but Sale might be done.

 

I was tempted to put a * next to his name. I'd be happy with 20 starts. Dude will probably eclipse 100 innings this year and relative to the past few years was healthy this year. He had the shoulder thing, but I would have been more concerned if it was his elbow, which has been fine. He might have another season or two left.....or not.

 

Still, I think Pivetta/Houck/Whitlock can slide into the rotation if that's the case, and If Bello/Yama/Montgomery are as advertised thats still a legit rotation.

[Bellhorn04]

Still, I think Pivetta/Houck/Whitlock can slide into the rotation if that's the case

 

That's the 2023 formula all over.

 

The only way the Red Sox have a successful pitching staff is with Houck and Whitlock in the pen.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's the 2023 formula all over.

 

The only way the Red Sox have a successful pitching staff is with Houck and Whitlock in the pen.

 

Ya, no more hoping and wishing and praying.

 

Bello-Yamamoto-Montgomery... and probably Crawford. The rest are either in the bullpen or suspended animation.

 

The fifth starter will be some minor leaguer currently honing his craft in another organization, but soon to join Boston when whoever is in charge actually trades other prospects for him.

[moonslav59]

If you go past the first line, it's fair to assume I have up until the next to play with so I'm spending over 50 mil. And I'd gamble they will this offseason, although I won't try to predict who they actually sign but for the fun of it.

 

Yamamoto $25 million

Montgomery $20 million

Duval $12 million

 

Look at that I only spent $57, but of course, there will be a few smaller signings that probably add up to another 15-20 million, or perhaps we see an extension or two.

 

A few months ago I would have loved to put Urias on that list.

 

I forgot to put Yamamoto on the list.

[moonslav59]

Ya, no more hoping and wishing and praying.

 

Bello-Yamamoto-Montgomery... and probably Crawford. The rest are either in the bullpen or suspended animation.

 

The fifth starter will be some minor leaguer currently honing his craft in another organization, but soon to join Boston when whoever is in charge actually trades other prospects for him.

 

The 5th starter will be Pivetta.

[mvp 78]

Hate to say it, but Sale might be done.

 

I think Sale is the 4th/5th starter. He's going to be on the roster unless he's on the IL or retires. The only good thing is that I'm fine with mixing and matching the 4th an 5th starters of Pivetta/Crawford/Gambrell/Houck as needed. I just don't want those guys to be relied on as mid rotation or better. At some point, Wikelman Gonzalez could be up and competing for the back of the rotation in 2024 which would make it look more like:

Yamamoto (yeah right)

Bello

Montgomery

Wikelman

Crawford/Sale

 

If that's the rotation heading down the stretch, the Sox would look much better than they have in a long while.

[mvp 78]

The 5th starter will be Pivetta.

 

I just like him so much better out of the pen.

[notin]

I just like him so much better out of the pen.

 

Who isn’t better out of the bullpen?

[Hugh2]

That's the 2023 formula all over.

 

The only way the Red Sox have a successful pitching staff is with Houck and Whitlock in the pen.

 

Is it?

 

Yamamoto + Montgomery seems like a different model than just signing Kluber.

 

Also, I have Houck and Whitlock in the pen.