Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

There are a lot of variables going into this winter, concerning the 2024 Red Sox roster and budget. It's hard to know what the budget plans are and where the roster priorities are, but that won't stop us from discussing them and giving our ideas, suggestions, predictions and criticisms.

 

Right now, we have 45 players on the 40 man roster, due to 5 guys on the 60 day IL: Kluber, Mondesi, Mills, Kelly and Ort, and since there is no 60 day IL in the offseason, we will need to deal with those 5 slots, but not to worry, we have 5 players that will become free agents:

Paxton

Duvall

Mondesi

Kluber (option not be offered- no buyout.)

Turner (player option will surely be turned down)

 

That brings us to 40 without considering added free agents or trade acquisitions over the winter and Rule 5 additions. I can't see how we don't add at least 2-3 players to the roster via free agency or by trades involving non 40 man roster players. The Rule 5 list is rather long, but many are on the bubble. I'm thinking 5-6 are pretty sure bets to be protected and maybe 1-3 others as strong considerations. Here are my lists:

Sure bets:

W Gonzalez

L Perales

S Drohan

G Gambrell

S Scott

 

Strong consideration:

A Castro (too low level to be selected?)

B Bonaci

 

Kinda long shots:

E Paulino

M Lugo

J Hagenman

C-J Liu

R Fernandez

L de la Rosa

A Bastardo

B Bell

B Gonzalez

 

Let's say we protect 7 Rule 5 and add 3 free agents, that would mean 10 players will need to be DFA'd, non tendered or traded for non 40 man roster prospects.

 

Here is my list of 8, and none of them make me feel worried we are handing one away:

1. Ort

2. Garza

3. Weiss

4. Barraclough

5. Jacques

6. Llovera

7. DHam (trade)

8. Dalbec (trade)

 

Bubble players (trade away?)

Wyatt Mills

Zack Kelly

 

Valued players thought to be possible trade bait"

Dugo or Duran

Sale (with cash)

Joely, Murphy, Walter, Robertson or Mata

EValdez

 

I don't see a big roster squeeze, unless we try to sign 4-6 free agents and protect 7-9 Rule 5'ers.

 

On the budget, a more detailed breakdown will be coming, but we are adding the Devers Raise (almost $12M) and have a bunch or ARB raises ('23 salary):

6.3 Dugo (3rd arb of 3)

5.3 Pivetta (3 of 3)

4.7 Urias (3 of 4)

1.2 McGuire (2 of 3)

min Barraclough (3 of 3)

750K Schreiber (1 of 3)

min Dalbec (1 of 3)

cots has us at $158M before any arbs or options. That leaves about $80M for ARBs and additions.

 

More to come...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom probably isn't quite done with 1 year deals for veterans like Turner and Duvall. Which were both good moves.

[notin]

Bloom probably isn't quite done with 1 year deals for veterans like Turner and Duvall. Which were both good moves.

 

 

Will he ever be done with them? Will any CBO/GM ever be done with them?

[moonslav59]

Bloom probably isn't quite done with 1 year deals for veterans like Turner and Duvall. Which were both good moves.

 

Most teams sign a few each year, and it's often a good idea.

 

I think we don't have many slots to fill, but we may add some depth players on 1 year deals at positions where we are not sure incoming kids are good enough, yet.

 

IIf we sign one more SP'er as our best one to a 1 year $10M contract, I'll be as gloom and doom as fred lynn.

[moonslav59]

Is this a top contending team?

 

SP1 Nola

SP2 Yamamoto

SP3 Bello

SP4 Sale/Crawford/Houck

SP5 Pivetta

 

Closer Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Schreiber

RP4 Crawford (SP?)

RP5 Houck (SP?)

RP6 Whitlock

RP7 Winckowski

RP8 Bernardino, Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Walter, Mata, Gambrell

 

1. Duran/Refsnyder LF

2. Devers 3B

3. Story SS

4. Casas 1B

5. Yoshida DH

6. Dugo RF

7. Rafaela/Abreu CF

8. Urias/Reyes 2B

9. Wong/McGuire C

[Nick]

I really don't know how to address the BIG elephant in the room question (starting pitching) but I did like the two year deals on Jansen and Martin. I'd like to target maybe another set up guy to a two year deal. 2023 definitely showed the value of being able to protect leads in the last two innings.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Will he ever be done with them? Will any CBO/GM ever be done with them?

 

A GM might be done with JT when his beard turns white. But by then, he might be the GM...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is this a top contending team?

 

SP1 Nola

SP2 Yamamoto

SP3 Bello

SP4 Sale/Crawford/Houck

SP5 Pivetta

 

Closer Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Schreiber

RP4 Crawford (SP?)

RP5 Houck (SP?)

RP6 Whitlock

RP7 Winckowski

RP8 Bernardino, Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Walter, Mata, Gambrell

 

1. Duran/Refsnyder LF

2. Devers 3B

3. Story SS

4. Casas 1B

5. Yoshida DH

6. Dugo RF

7. Rafaela/Abreu CF

8. Urias/Reyes 2B

9. Wong/McGuire C

 

I don't think so. The two best hitters from this year's mediocrity -- Turner and Duvall -- are missing. I don't expect Verdugo to be back, and Duvall would be a logical replacement -- and maybe even more valuable as a righty pull hitter (something too lacking in this lefty-laden batting order for Fenway) and middle of the order anchor. Story should improve, but at this stage in his career I don't expect him to make enough consistent contact to be a productive #3 hitter.

 

The #8-9 platoon guys are also just placeholders for regulars that may truly turn this group into a "top contender." I'm talking Mayer at SS (Story moves to 2B) and Teel at C. Best-case scenario: they're this century's Lynn-Rice Rookie-of-the-Year twins by 2025. But since neither is an outfielder, we'll settle for the debuts of Nomar-Fisk...

 

Unfortunately, under the devious and not-so-deceptive Henry-Bloom 100-month plan, we may need to wait until then before they finally invest in any top-of-the-rotation pitching.

[Old Red]

Is this a top contending team?

 

SP1 Nola

SP2 Yamamoto

SP3 Bello

SP4 Sale/Crawford/Houck

SP5 Pivetta

 

Closer Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Schreiber

RP4 Crawford (SP?)

RP5 Houck (SP?)

RP6 Whitlock

RP7 Winckowski

RP8 Bernardino, Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Walter, Mata, Gambrell

 

1. Duran/Refsnyder LF

2. Devers 3B

3. Story SS

4. Casas 1B

5. Yoshida DH

6. Dugo RF

7. Rafaela/Abreu CF

8. Urias/Reyes 2B

9. Wong/McGuire C

No! No on the rotation. Duran had lost a lot of his luster before he got hurt, so no on him, and the Ref Man in LF. Raf, and Abreu are untested, and Dugy is up in the air. The $100M man is a question where he plays too. Take out JT, and Duvall out of this lineup, and it could be very weak. Then another big question is if Story Land will be opened, or closed. Could still be a bad defensive IF too. It would be a contender for something, but I don’t think for the top, and maybe worse than this year. I don’t see any Mookie Betts in the lineup. Where’s he?

Edited September 1, 2023 by Old Red

[Hugh2]

Is this a top contending team?

 

SP1 Nola

SP2 Yamamoto

SP3 Bello

SP4 Sale/Crawford/Houck

SP5 Pivetta

 

Closer Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Schreiber

RP4 Crawford (SP?)

RP5 Houck (SP?)

RP6 Whitlock

RP7 Winckowski

RP8 Bernardino, Murphy, Kelly, Robertson, Walter, Mata, Gambrell

 

1. Duran/Refsnyder LF

2. Devers 3B

3. Story SS

4. Casas 1B

5. Yoshida DH

6. Dugo RF

7. Rafaela/Abreu CF

8. Urias/Reyes 2B

9. Wong/McGuire C

 

With a clean bill of health (relatively speaking) I think that should be.

 

Adding two top teir pitchers would be transformative, and ultimately strengthens the bottom of the rotation AND the bullpen.

 

If the sophmores take a step forward that team could be very good. I still woulnd't mind seeing a better solution in the OF. I think the team could use a RHH OFer. Maybe bring Duval back if it's reasonable.

[notin]

Trade Duran. To Miami for Braxton Garrett is still relatively close.

 

Sign Matt Chapman.

 

Sign a TBD RP.

 

C - Wong, McGuire

1b - Devers. Unless you agree with the moronic logic that his contract should keep him at 3b

2b - Urias. Upgrade is possible. He’s a meh defender

SS - Story. Probably the Sox best defensive SS since Alex Gonzalez

3b - Chapman. Would easily be the Sox best defensive 3b in the last half century

LF - Yoshida

CF - Rafaela

RF - Verdugo

DH - Casas

 

SP - Sale, Garrett, Bello, Crawford, Houck

RP - Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Whitlock, Schreiber, Bernardino, Pivetta (also Sale’s injury replacement)

[Old Red]

Trade Duran. To Miami for Braxton Garrett is still relatively close.

 

Sign Matt Chapman.

 

Sign a TBD RP.

 

C - Wong, McGuire

1b - Devers. Unless you agree with the moronic logic that his contract should keep him at 3b

2b - Urias. Upgrade is possible. He’s a meh defender

SS - Story. Probably the Sox best defensive SS since Alex Gonzalez

3b - Chapman. Would easily be the Sox best defensive 3b in the last half century

LF - Yoshida

CF - Rafaela

RF - Verdugo

DH - Casas

 

SP - Sale, Garrett, Bello, Crawford, Houck

RP - Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Whitlock, Schreiber, Bernardino, Pivetta (also Sale’s injury replacement)

They are not going to sign Matt Chapman. They are not going to move Raffy to 1B. Casas is the 1B. No on the starting rotation. It’s pretty sad, depressing, and a whole lot of incompetence to be talking about next year when we Should be talking about the Red Sox being in the postseason this year. Oh well better luck next year.

[Bellhorn04]

Most teams sign a few each year, and it's often a good idea.

 

I think the first part is overstated a bit.

[notin]

With a clean bill of health (relatively speaking) I think that should be.

 

Adding two top teir pitchers would be transformative, and ultimately strengthens the bottom of the rotation AND the bullpen.

 

If the sophmores take a step forward that team could be very good. I still woulnd't mind seeing a better solution in the OF. I think the team could use a RHH OFer. Maybe bring Duval back if it's reasonable.

 

 

Is Nola really a top tier pitcher?

 

His ERA+ over the last 3 years is 103, basically league average.

 

He’s also 30 years old, and therefore not likely to get better.

 

To me, depends on the deal. 5 years or more at anything over $20mill - hard, hard, hard pass.

 

But I wouldn’t mind Nola on a shorter deal. The shorter the better…

[Old Red]

I think the first part is overstated a bit.

 

Not in Bloom’s way of thinking.

[notin]

They are not going to sign Matt Chapman. They are not going to move Raffy to 1B. Casas is the 1B. No on the starting rotation. It’s pretty sad, depressing, and a whole lot of incompetence to be talking about next year when we Should be talking about the Red Sox being in the postseason this year. Oh well better luck next year.

 

1. So did you see Rafaela was called up and started at shortstop? Maybe you missed that; I’m not sure if there were highlights.

 

2. I seem to recall someone poopooing a Joey Gallo suggestion last year to help fill a massive defensive void, and doing so for batting average reasons. So what again was the Sox biggest problem this year?

 

3. This is more about what the Sox should do within their limitations. Not predictions.

[Old Red]

1. So did you see Rafaela was called up and started at shortstop? Maybe you missed that; I’m not sure if there were highlights.

 

2. I seem to recall someone poopooing a Joey Gallo suggestion last year to help fill a massive defensive void, and doing so for batting average reasons. So what again was the Sox biggest problem this year?

 

3. This is more about what the Sox should do within their limitations. Not predictions.

So Raf started at SS. Story needed a day off from all that running around the bases from all his xtra base hits. Gallo is having a hellava year.Dugy has been fine in RF this year, and finally the Red Sox limitations resides in the front office.

Edited September 1, 2023 by Old Red

[notin]

So Raf started at SS. Story needed a day off from all that running around the bases from all his xtra base hits. Dugy has been fine in RF this year, and finally the Red Sox limitations resides in the front office.

 

When I suggested tha Sox call up Rafaela to play SS until Stiry got back, you assured me it would NEVER happen because he was the future CF.

 

It took a few months. But you were wrong. Now comes the part where you don’t admit it…

[Old Red]

When I suggested tha Sox call up Rafaela to play SS until Stiry got back, you assured me it would NEVER happen because he was the future CF.

 

It took a few months. But you were wrong. Now comes the part where you don’t admit it…

He played 1 game there whoopy doo doo.

[Hugh2]

Is Nola really a top tier pitcher?

 

His ERA+ over the last 3 years is 103, basically league average.

 

He’s also 30 years old, and therefore not likely to get better.

 

To me, depends on the deal. 5 years or more at anything over $20mill - hard, hard, hard pass.

 

But I wouldn’t mind Nola on a shorter deal. The shorter the better…

 

No Yamma is the top teir pitcher. Nola is the guy who can be your #2 and at times pitch like a #1. I only like Nola if he's signed in conjunction with Yama or Urias or something to that extent. Nola is 30, so is pretty much any free agent pitcher, which is why I like going hard after Yama.

 

I also think Nola has been much better than you suggest, he's had some real s***** defense behind him. His FIP in that time frame is almost a whole run lower 3.32 but over those three years he's also pitched.

 

1.032 WHIP, 7.8 H/9 1.8 BB/9, 10.3 k/9.

 

I'll take that.

[Hugh2]

Finding a way to put Rafaela in the outfield and DH Yoshida, and a healthy Story makes the up the middle defense 100000X better next year.

 

Add some top line pitching to the mix and this is a good team.

[moonslav59]

I don't think so. The two best hitters from this year's mediocrity -- Turner and Duvall -- are missing. I don't expect Verdugo to be back, and Duvall would be a logical replacement -- and maybe even more valuable as a righty pull hitter (something too lacking in this lefty-laden batting order for Fenway) and middle of the order anchor. Story should improve, but at this stage in his career I don't expect him to make enough consistent contact to be a productive #3 hitter.

 

The #8-9 platoon guys are also just placeholders for regulars that may truly turn this group into a "top contender." I'm talking Mayer at SS (Story moves to 2B) and Teel at C. Best-case scenario: they're this century's Lynn-Rice Rookie-of-the-Year twins by 2025. But since neither is an outfielder, we'll settle for the debuts of Nomar-Fisk...

 

Unfortunately, under the devious and not-so-deceptive Henry-Bloom 100-month plan, we may need to wait until then before they finally invest in any top-of-the-rotation pitching.

 

I think this team listed would make the playoffs as a WC team.

 

I think you might be short-changing Urias at 2B and as a back up at 3B and maybe 3rd string at SS. He was injured for some of this year, but from 2021-2022, he averaged 24 HRs and 75 RBIs per 660 PAs with a .340 OBP. I can understand thinking maybe this is a fluke for Reyes.

 

I will add that, I was looking at a minimum amount of additions- just 2 SP'er, but I think we might open up enough budget so space to bring back Turner or Duvall or the like- someone who can play 2B & CF or CF/R.

[moonslav59]

With a clean bill of health (relatively speaking) I think that should be.

 

Adding two top teir pitchers would be transformative, and ultimately strengthens the bottom of the rotation AND the bullpen.

 

If the sophmores take a step forward that team could be very good. I still woulnd't mind seeing a better solution in the OF. I think the team could use a RHH OFer. Maybe bring Duval back if it's reasonable.

 

I love Duvall, but we need better CF defense, and bringing back Adam means we have 4 guys who LF is their best position (other than maybe DH:) Yoshida, Duran, Refsnyder & Duvall.

[Old Red]

Finding a way to put Rafaela in the outfield and DH Yoshida, and a healthy Story makes the up the middle defense 100000X better next year.

 

Add some top line pitching to the mix and this is a good team.

 

Rafaela in CF, and Story full time at SS definitely makes the D better, but no one knows if Raf can handle big league pitching yet, and at times Story for that matter. Adding top line pitching I don’t believe is in Bloom’s big bag of surprises.

[Bellhorn04]

2023 fWAR leaders-position players (none of them super-impressive except maybe Duvall BTW)

 

Verdugo 2.5

Duvall 2.4

Devers 2.3

Duran 2.3

Turner 1.9

Casas 1.3

 

Note who we are expecting to subtract and figure out how their production will be replaced.

[moonslav59]

Trade Duran. To Miami for Braxton Garrett is still relatively close.

 

Sign Matt Chapman.

 

Sign a TBD RP.

 

C - Wong, McGuire

1b - Devers. Unless you agree with the moronic logic that his contract should keep him at 3b

2b - Urias. Upgrade is possible. He’s a meh defender

SS - Story. Probably the Sox best defensive SS since Alex Gonzalez

3b - Chapman. Would easily be the Sox best defensive 3b in the last half century

LF - Yoshida

CF - Rafaela

RF - Verdugo

DH - Casas

 

SP - Sale, Garrett, Bello, Crawford, Houck

RP - Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Whitlock, Schreiber, Bernardino, Pivetta (also Sale’s injury replacement)

 

If you added signing a top SP along with the Garrett addition, I'd like this plan. I agree with Red, we aren't moving Devers to 1B in 2024, and I think we'll give Casas a chance to improve at 1B and show he can stay there.

 

(Personally, I'd move Devers to 1B, next year. I'm done hoping he can string 150 games together at average or avg + D.)

[Bellhorn04]

The 2023 Red Sox pitching leader in fWAR is 1.6 - ugly.

 

We have a ton of deficiencies to fix, folks. Bloom has the tallest of tall orders on his hands.

[Dipre]

Not in Bloom’s way of thinking.

 

How do you know what Bloom thinks? Are you a mind reader? Because you could be making much better use of that talent.

[moonslav59]

I think the first part is overstated a bit.

 

Yes, there aren't even 60 total FA signings per winter, let alone one year deals.

 

Last winter, however, there were 19 2+ year deals made and 18 one year deals made.

[moonslav59]

Rafaela in CF, and Story full time at SS definitely makes the D better, but no one knows if Raf can handle big league pitching yet, and at times Story for that matter. Adding top line pitching I don’t believe is in Bloom’s big bag of surprises.

 

I think having Abreu and Duran as players who can play CF, if Rafaela bombs, gives us the chance to give him a long look-see.