2023 draft thread

[mvp 78]

He's a prospect in that he's young and in the minors, but he's a real low shot guy. His fielding is not good, and he can't throw guys out, putting a LOT of pressure on his bat. Yes' he's hitting in the minors but not mashing, and hitting in the majors is the hardest thing to do.

 

I don't get too excited about Nathan Hickey, I think he is a future MLBer, but he's not a starter, he's not the caliber of player.

 

He's low shot to be a starting catcher probably. He could probably start elsewhere or be a backup C and part time LFer.

[Hugh2]

He's low shot to be a starting catcher probably. He could probably start elsewhere or be a backup C and part time LFer.

 

If he's going to start elsewhere it's likely 1B, putting a tremendous amount of pressure on his bat. I think he's a useful player, I'm just not terribly excited about him.

 

 

Potential up-and-down reserve bat. The ceiling of a second-division regular. He Likely has to stick at Catcher to reach his ceiling but has enough bat to potentially make the majors even if his defense does not come that much farther along. Advanced profile at the plate; likely to put up strong performance numbers in the low minors.

[moonslav59]

He is. Why?

 

I assumed this statement was about Brannon:

 

Sox now have two good catching prospects in their system. Tell, being closer to the bigs despite not being signed yet.

[Hugh2]

I like Brannon too, but I'm a ceiling guy. Garcia and Teel are going to be the best two in the system.

[mvp 78]

I assumed this statement was about Brannon:

 

Sox now have two good catching prospects in their system. Tell, being closer to the bigs despite not being signed yet.

 

Brannon's defense isn't that great right now. He's a work in progress (at best) at blocking. Tell is far and away their best catching prospect right now and it's not close.

[Hugh2]

It’s Teel, and I just did the same thing

[mvp 78]

Think of it this way, proximity to the majors means a lot in prospect ranking and value, it's why someone like Drohan is ranked about Perales, and Garcia is ranked 4 spots above Hickey despite being 5 years younger only in the FCL. Being so far away makes it a long shot for him, but the ceiling is much much higher. I'm a risk taker, I like ceiling over proximity to majors. Teel gives us a better prospect, with ceiling and more development. Could be in the majors in 3 years.

 

Garcia is a bat first guy too. I wouldn't automatically assume he sticks at C long term.

[Hugh2]

Garcia is a bat first guy too. I wouldn't automatically assume he sticks at C long term.

 

He has a much higher ceiling than both Hickey and Brannon though.

[mvp 78]

It’s Teel, and I just did the same thing

 

Yup. It's just not a word my fingers are used to typing.

[mvp 78]

He has a much higher ceiling than both Hickey and Brannon though.

 

Brannon and Garcia are 18 and 19, it's a little too early to definitively state either way.

 

Brannon is mashing in Salem. Garcia is mashing in FCL. Brannon has bigger power upside. Garcia is a more all around athlete.

[Hugh2]

Brannon and Garcia are 18 and 19, it's a little too early to definitively state either way.

 

Brannon is mashing in Salem. Garcia is mashing in FCL. Brannon has bigger power upside. Garcia is a more all-around athlete.

 

Garcia is ranked #17 in the Sox system, as a younger guy that says something. Brannon is ranked 31st.

 

Now, of course, Garcia isn't even ranked on pipeline and Hickey and Brannon are 15th/20th respectively.

 

But Soxprospects, while not any better than these other ranking organizations does do one thing way better than them, and it's 100% function of being able to primarily focus on the Sox system. They always identify and get out ahead of everyone else when it comes to the lower-level guys no one hears of. They had Bogaerts ranked a year before the national media was on to him, the same thing with Devers and Bello as well. If they have him that high, it's because he's very special and they've seen and heard a TON of things about him from within the Sox organization.

[moonslav59]

I like Brannon too, but I'm a ceiling guy. Garcia and Teel are going to be the best two in the system.

 

Ahhh, I forgot about Garcia.

 

I guess I'm higher on Hickey than some. I do realize he may not stick as a catcher. I know he's 23 and turns 24, later this year, but he has handled his promotions very well.

 

He's just below .400 in OBP in the minors, has 29 HRs in 483 ABs and walks, a lot.

 

[mvp 78]

Garcia is ranked #17 in the Sox system, as a younger guy that says something. Brannon is ranked 31st.

 

Now, of course, Garcia isn't even ranked on pipeline and Hickey and Brannon are 15th/20th respectively.

 

But Soxprospects, while not any better than these other ranking organizations does do one thing way better than them, and it's 100% function of being able to primarily focus on the Sox system. They always identify and get out ahead of everyone else when it comes to the lower-level guys no one hears of. They had Bogaerts ranked a year before the national media was on to him, the same thing with Devers and Bello as well. If they have him that high, it's because he's very special and they've seen and heard a TON of things about him from within the Sox organization.

 

The rankings are also very fluid. Paulino was ranked 10th at the start of the year and will probably be in the 20's at the end of this year. Meidroth was in the 40's at the end of last season. Garcia just jumped up 21 spots. Brannon was ahead of him in their previous rankings. They have overreacted on prospects before...

[mvp 78]

Some in the national media also pushed Roman Anthony's rankings earlier than SoxProspects did, so I would have to say they missed the boat with him a little there... Just because they are the local source doesn't mean they are infallible. They talk to the same scouts and sources the national guys do.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Garcia is ranked #17 in the Sox system, as a younger guy that says something. Brannon is ranked 31st.

 

Now, of course, Garcia isn't even ranked on pipeline and Hickey and Brannon are 15th/20th respectively.

 

But Soxprospects, while not any better than these other ranking organizations does do one thing way better than them, and it's 100% function of being able to primarily focus on the Sox system. They always identify and get out ahead of everyone else when it comes to the lower-level guys no one hears of. They had Bogaerts ranked a year before the national media was on to him, the same thing with Devers and Bello as well. If they have him that high, it's because he's very special and they've seen and heard a TON of things about him from within the Sox organization.

 

Good post -- convinced me.

 

Still remember it took Varitek, a guy regarded as the greatest college catcher ever, a few years to land a full-time job in the majors.

 

He was being platooned with Scott Hatteberg, a guy whose claim to fame was moving to first base -- in a movie!

[Hugh2]

Some in the national media also pushed Roman Anthony's rankings earlier than SoxProspects did, so I would have to say they missed the boat with him a little there... Just because they are the local source doesn't mean they are infallible. They talk to the same scouts and sources the national guys do.

 

Of course, but they follow ONE system, as opposed to all 30 teams. When you're that specialized you're going to be out in front of these things before anyone else. I didn't realize they weren't high on Anthony, I'm not really sure if that's true, and even if it was the exception doesn't make the rule. And FTR, Anthony is still a prospect, the guys I listed were prospects who actually graduated and became big-league stars. BIG difference.

 

I mean look, If you trust mlb Pipelines rankings more than soxprospects cool, thats you. I trust Soxprospects more.

[Hugh2]

BA just moved Anthony into their top 100 last week.

[Hugh2]

Some in the national media also pushed Roman Anthony's rankings earlier than SoxProspects did, so I would have to say they missed the boat with him a little there... Just because they are the local source doesn't mean they are infallible. They talk to the same scouts and sources the national guys do.

 

who?

[Hugh2]

Soxprospects started the season with Anthony ranked 11th. Was he on anyones top 20 back in April?

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects started the season with Anthony ranked 11th. Was he on anyones top 20 back in April?

 

It's weird they had Anthony 9th last December, then felt the need to jump Perales and Paulino in front of him by spring.

[mvp 78]

who?

 

Kiley McDaniel, ESPN

 

From May:

 

@BOSSportsGordo

Kiley McDaniel released his updated Top 50 MLB Prospects. From the Red Sox:

 

3. Marcelo Mayer

49. Roman Anthony

[mvp 78]

Soxprospects started the season with Anthony ranked 11th. Was he on anyones top 20 back in April?

 

Pipeline had him 9th.

[mvp 78]

Of course, but they follow ONE system, as opposed to all 30 teams. When you're that specialized you're going to be out in front of these things before anyone else. I didn't realize they weren't high on Anthony, I'm not really sure if that's true, and even if it was the exception doesn't make the rule. And FTR, Anthony is still a prospect, the guys I listed were prospects who actually graduated and became big-league stars. BIG difference.

 

I mean look, If you trust mlb Pipelines rankings more than soxprospects cool, thats you. I trust Soxprospects more.

 

SoxProspects have had their share of Antoni Flores and Gilberto Jimenez helium guys to be wary of. I like SoxProspects, you just need to take all rankings with a grain of salt.

[Hugh2]

Pipeline had him 9th.

 

 

Regardless it doesn't matter. I specifically laid out examples of prospects who were pumped up and actually made it to the bigs. So, call me in 2-3 years if Anthony is in the big leagues and performing like a star, and then we can talk.

 

Devers MLB player

Bogaerts MLB player

Bello MLB player.

Anthony NOT MLB player.

 

Also, I know very well rankings are taken with a grain of salt, even the #1 prospect can go completely bust. I just put more stock into sox prospects than other scouting bodies. It's simple math, more eyes, better reports.

[Hugh2]

While they've definitely had their blunders (as anyone will because nobody has a crystal ball) to be fait, Jimenez and Flores both topped out in weak systems.

 

They've also been on the opposite side of the spectrum. When the entire national media was all in on LARS ANDERSON the Sox prospects were lower and said they thought there was a significant risk with him (still had him ranked high though).

 

Also with Duran, if you listen to their preseason podcast, they were still very high on Duran.

[Hugh2]

No ranking system is perfect, but I put more stock into them than other bodies.

 

Now, I apologize for getting this thread off of track. This talk has nothing to do about the draft.

[mvp 78]

Regardless it doesn't matter. I specifically laid out examples of prospects who were pumped up and actually made it to the bigs. So, call me in 2-3 years if Anthony is in the big leagues and performing like a star, and then we can talk.

 

Devers MLB player

Bogaerts MLB player

Bello MLB player.

Anthony NOT MLB player.

 

Also, I know very well rankings are taken with a grain of salt, even the #1 prospect can go completely bust. I just put more stock into sox prospects than other scouting bodies. It's simple math, more eyes, better reports.

 

So the sample is "SoxProspects guys that they really liked who made it to the bigs" and just that... Well of course if that's the entire sample then that's your entire dumb worldview. No sense in having in trying to have a nuanced conversation then.

[Hugh2]

So the sample is "SoxProspects guys that they really liked who made it to the bigs" and just that... Well of course if that's the entire sample then that's your entire dumb worldview. No sense in having in trying to have a nuanced conversation then.

 

Riiiight, because there's just a ton of Bogaerts/Devers/Bello on the Sox team.

 

I was very specific and intentional about that example.

[FredLynn]

I don't see this here. They drafted Kyle Teel, a highly regarded catcher at #14. Apparently he was the best catcher on the board.

 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2023/07/09/red-sox-kyle-teel-2023-mlb-draft-scouting-report-catcher/

[Hugh2]

really like? I call it guys who turned into all stars. (TBD with Bello). That's a very specific and relevant sample.