Red Sox Relief Pitching 2023

[Nick]

Maybe the Sox can trade for the rights of Noah Song? He's probably ready by now!

 

Very good, sir.

[notin]

Why not go with an even younger pitcher with higher upside?

 

At the very least, all of them move up one rung on the depth ladder. And there will be injuries…

[mvp 78]

At the very least, all of them move up one rung on the depth ladder. And there will be injuries…

 

Pivetta 2023:

AvEV: 4th percentile

Hard Hit: 7th percentile

xSLG: 6th percentile

Brl%: 4th percentile

 

He's going on 2 straight years of really not being very good. Not even "5th starter" good.

[notin]

Pivetta 2023:

AvEV: 4th percentile

Hard Hit: 7th percentile

xSLG: 6th percentile

Brl%: 4th percentile

 

He's going on 2 straight years of really not being very good. Not even "5th starter" good.

 

1. Still better than Kluber, if for no other reason than regularly racing the sixth inning.

2. Which high upside younger pitcher looks better? Drohan and his career total of 39 IP above A ball? Matt Dermody? Walter, Murphy and Mata are struggling in AAA right now…

[moonslav59]

Pivetta 2023:

AvEV: 4th percentile

Hard Hit: 7th percentile

xSLG: 6th percentile

Brl%: 4th percentile

 

He's going on 2 straight years of really not being very good. Not even "5th starter" good.

 

How "good" is the average 5th starter in MLB?

 

If you look at 2022, the first thing you notice is that you have to lower the qualifying IP to 70 to reach 150 SP'er (30 teams x 5 SP'er.) That alone sets Pivetta apart from almost all other 5th SP'er- IP, durability and taking the ball every 5th day.

 

You can probably find some numbers that show he was a bad 5th starter, but here are some I found:

 

If #1s are 1-30, #2s 31-60, #3's 61-90...

 

fWAR ranking in top 150 SP'er of 2022:

77. R HIll 1.8

83. Wacha 1.5

86. Pivetta 1.5 (lower #3 tier

107. Eovaldi 1.0

 

xFIP

35. Nate 3.46

82. Wacha 3.99

93. RHill 4.12

103. Pivetta 4.26 (mid 4th starter tier)

 

ERA-

42. Wacha 81

72. Nate 94

90. RHill 104

107. Pivetta 111 (mid 4th SP'er tier)

 

IP

28. Pivetta 179.2

89. Wacha 127.1

95. RHill 124.1

110. Nate 109.1

 

K-BB% 91st at 13.2% (nearly in 3rd starter tier)

BAbip 47th at .300 (suggesting bad luc/poor D)

SIERA 97th at 4.21 (top tier 4th starter)

[mvp 78]

1. Still better than Kluber, if for no other reason than regularly racing the sixth inning.

2. Which high upside younger pitcher looks better? Drohan and his career total of 39 IP above A ball? Matt Dermody? Walter, Murphy and Mata are struggling in AAA right now…

 

Whitlock/Houck/Crawford

[Nick]

How "good" is the average 5th starter in MLB?

 

If you look at 2022, the first thing you notice is that you have to lower the qualifying IP to 70 to reach 150 SP'er (30 teams x 5 SP'er.) That alone sets Pivetta apart from almost all other 5th SP'er- IP, durability and taking the ball every 5th day.

 

You can probably find some numbers that show he was a bad 5th starter, but here are some I found:

 

If #1s are 1-30, #2s 31-60, #3's 61-90...

 

fWAR ranking in top 150 SP'er of 2022:

77. R HIll 1.8

83. Wacha 1.5

86. Pivetta 1.5 (lower #3 tier

107. Eovaldi 1.0

 

xFIP

35. Nate 3.46

82. Wacha 3.99

93. RHill 4.12

103. Pivetta 4.26 (mid 4th starter tier)

 

ERA-

42. Wacha 81

72. Nate 94

90. RHill 104

107. Pivetta 111 (mid 4th SP'er tier)

 

IP

28. Pivetta 179.2

89. Wacha 127.1

95. RHill 124.1

110. Nate 109.1

 

K-BB% 91st at 13.2% (nearly in 3rd starter tier)

BAbip 47th at .300 (suggesting bad luc/poor D)

SIERA 97th at 4.21 (top tier 4th starter)

 

I appreciate all your data. But you ignor one thing.

 

We compete in AL East. Stats for major leage means nothing to me.

 

It's how we look compared to other AL teams matter more to me.

[notin]

Whitlock/Houck/Crawford

 

If they DFA Kluber, I assume at least one of them is in the rotation, presumably Whitlock.

 

Houck’s issues with starting and facing the opposing lineups are well known and if that means his future is in the pen, that’s not a bad thing.

 

I could see Crawford, but I like him in the bullpen as well.

 

And Pivetta isn’t Kluber, throwing with a rebuilt arm unable to reach the velocities where he was successful. He’s had a rough stretch but is probably just as likely to turn it around and be successful as Crawford is. And if nothing else, his durability is an asset…

[moonslav59]

I appreciate all your data. But you ignor one thing.

 

We compete in AL East. Stats for major leage means nothing to me.

 

It's how we look compared to other AL teams matter more to me.

 

All I'm saying is he did not suck as a 5th starter in 2022.

 

This is 2023, and he has sucked. So has Kluber, Whitlock and to a slightly lesser extend, Houck.

[moonslav59]

If they DFA Kluber, I assume at least one of them is in the rotation, presumably Whitlock.

 

Houck’s issues with starting and facing the opposing lineups are well known and if that means his future is in the pen, that’s not a bad thing.

 

I could see Crawford, but I like him in the bullpen as well.

 

And Pivetta isn’t Kluber, throwing with a rebuilt arm unable to reach the velocities where he was successful. He’s had a rough stretch but is probably just as likely to turn it around and be successful as Crawford is. And if nothing else, his durability is an asset…

 

Whitlock is starting Saturday. He's in.

 

Bloom has said he will go with 6 for one time through and take a look.

 

If Houck can't get past 9 batters, and Kluber looks good (it is possible), maybe Houck goes to the pen. He would join Pivetta, Wink and Crawford as long men, which would allow quicker hooks on Kluber, Whitlock and anyone else who sucks out of the gate.

 

I'm not saying I think hat will happen, but Cora is making the call. (Maybe he already knows Kluber will be demoted from the rotation.)

 

I think we'd try Kluber in the pen before we DFA him.

[mvp 78]

If they DFA Kluber, I assume at least one of them is in the rotation, presumably Whitlock.

 

Houck’s issues with starting and facing the opposing lineups are well known and if that means his future is in the pen, that’s not a bad thing.

 

I could see Crawford, but I like him in the bullpen as well.

 

And Pivetta isn’t Kluber, throwing with a rebuilt arm unable to reach the velocities where he was successful. He’s had a rough stretch but is probably just as likely to turn it around and be successful as Crawford is. And if nothing else, his durability is an asset…

 

I don't think it's a DFA yet. I think they try a phantom IL. Maybe another starter has an injury and Kluber comes back for round 2. If he isn't better, then we see a DFA.

 

I like Crawford and Houck in the pen too. I wish there was a better option than Kluber/Pivetta as the 5th starter. If Walter had developed it would have been interesting to give him a shot, but that's definitely not the case right now. Drohan is not close to being ready this year at any point. Chris Murphy should be DFA'd to make space on the roster. Not sure there is another arm in the org right now that can help out for this slot.

[mvp 78]

All I'm saying is he did not suck as a 5th starter in 2022.

 

This is 2023, and he has sucked. So has Kluber, Whitlock and to a slightly lesser extend, Houck.

 

Pivetta can throw a lot of innings and his xFIP shows that there should be some positive regression, but I think I'd rather have Houck in there and just make sure Cora pulls him after the second time through the order.

[mvp 78]

Whitlock is starting Saturday. He's in.

 

Bloom has said he will go with 6 for one time through and take a look.

 

If Houck can't get past 9 batters, and Kluber looks good (it is possible), maybe Houck goes to the pen. He would join Pivetta, Wink and Crawford as long men, which would allow quicker hooks on Kluber, Whitlock and anyone else who sucks out of the gate.

 

I'm not saying I think hat will happen, but Cora is making the call. (Maybe he already knows Kluber will be demoted from the rotation.)

 

I think we'd try Kluber in the pen before we DFA him.

 

Houck is great through the first 9 batters. That's not really up for debate.

[moonslav59]

I don't think it's a DFA yet. I think they try a phantom IL. Maybe another starter has an injury and Kluber comes back for round 2. If he isn't better, then we see a DFA.

 

I like Crawford and Houck in the pen too. I wish there was a better option than Kluber/Pivetta as the 5th starter. If Walter had developed it would have been interesting to give him a shot, but that's definitely not the case right now. Drohan is not close to being ready this year at any point. Chris Murphy should be DFA'd to make space on the roster. Not sure there is another arm in the org right now that can help out for this slot.

 

Murphy has imploded to a massive extent.

 

He has a 2.35 ERA on July 23rd in 2022.

 

5.66 AUG '22

6.26 SEP '22

8.63 2023

[mvp 78]

Murphy has imploded to a massive extent.

 

He has a 2.35 ERA on July 23rd in 2022.

 

5.66 AUG '22

6.26 SEP '22

8.63 2023

 

Ward's numbers would be much better than that in the WOO rotation probably.

[moonslav59]

Houck is great through the first 9 batters. That's not really up for debate.

 

Yup. Nobody is saying otherwise.

[moonslav59]

Ward's numbers would be much better than that in the WOO rotation probably.

 

Not many could be worse.

[Nick]

All I'm saying is he did not suck as a 5th starter in 2022.

 

This is 2023, and he has sucked. So has Kluber, Whitlock and to a slightly lesser extend, Houck.

 

I think you're too critical on Whitlock. He's only started 3 games. He performed poorly in games 1 and 3.

 

In game 2, he won against the Angels, pitching 7 innings, giving up 3 hits and 1 run. He is nowhere close to being labeled "He Sucks". Not yet anyway.

[moonslav59]

I think you're too critical on Whitlock. He's only started 3 games. He performed poorly in games 1 and 3.

 

In game 2, he won against the Angels, pitching 7 innings, giving up 3 hits and 1 run. He is nowhere close to being labeled "He Sucks". Not yet anyway.

 

They have sucked, so far.

 

I'm all for giving Whitlock a slot for several more starts, and certainly over Kluber and Pivetta.

 

He has sucked, though, despite the small sample size.

 

If you go by just ERA, like many here do (not you,) Kluber has a better ERA over the last 4 weeks than Houck and Pivetta.

 

To me, the 5 should be...

 

Sale

Paxton

Bello

Whitlock

Houck

 

[notin]

My staff assuming everyone not on the 60 day is healthy

 

Starters (order not important):

 

Sale

Paxton

Whitlock

Bello

Pivetta

 

Bullpen:

CL: Jansen

SU: Martin

Winckowski

Schreiber

Houck

J Rodriguez

Crawford

Bernardino

Ort (just kidding. More likely Garza for now.)

[moonslav59]

My staff assuming everyone not on the 60 day is healthy

 

Starters (order not important):

 

Sale

Paxton

Whitlock

Bello

Pivetta

 

Bullpen:

CL: Jansen

SU: Martin

Winckowski

Schreiber

Houck

J Rodriguez

Crawford

Bernardino

Ort (just kidding. More likely Garza for now.)

 

13 pitchers is the limit, so no Garza.

 

I think Kluber beats out Bernardino, for a while anyway. See how he does from the pen.

 

I'm assuming you DFA'd Kluber and Bleier.

[Maxbialystock]

My staff assuming everyone not on the 60 day is healthy

 

Starters (order not important):

 

Sale

Paxton

Whitlock

Bello

Pivetta

 

Bullpen:

CL: Jansen

SU: Martin

Winckowski

Schreiber

Houck

J Rodriguez

Crawford

Bernardino

Ort (just kidding. More likely Garza for now.)

 

Right now the rotation is Sale, Paxton, Bello, Houck--all of whom pitched well last time out--and Kluber, who ain't worth $10M and may or may not be replaced by Whitlock.

 

The bullpen is Jansen, Winck, Martin, Crawford, Pivetta, Garcia, and the two lefties, Rodriguez and Bernardino; and lately they look pretty unreliable.

[Dipre]

My staff assuming everyone not on the 60 day is healthy

 

Starters (order not important):

 

Sale

Paxton

Whitlock

Bello

Pivetta

 

Bullpen:

CL: Jansen

SU: Martin

Winckowski

Schreiber

Houck

J Rodriguez

Crawford

Bernardino

Ort (just kidding. More likely Garza for now.)

 

Pivetta should be nowhere near a pitching staff. He shouldn't have arms to throw a baseball with.

[moonslav59]

I think Houck is going to get a longer look at the rotation. He probably would have, even if he didn't have a nice "3rd time through" last game. The fact is, Houck going 18 batters is still way better than what we can expect from Pivetta and Kluber.

 

Crawford looks to fill the long man role much better than SP'er.

 

The rotation (all healthy)

 

1. Sale

2. Bello

3. Paxton

4. Houck

5. Whitlock

 

Pen

Closer: Jansen

Set-Up: Martin

Set-UP: Schreiber (can go more than 1 from time to time)

Lefty: Joely Rodriguez (Bleier?)

High Leverage Long Man: Winckowski

High Leverage Long Man: Crawford

Low/Mid Leverage Long Man: Pivetta

Low Leverage Long Man: Kluber

 

[Maxbialystock]

They have sucked, so far.

 

I'm all for giving Whitlock a slot for several more starts, and certainly over Kluber and Pivetta.

 

He has sucked, though, despite the small sample size.

 

If you go by just ERA, like many here do (not you,) Kluber has a better ERA over the last 4 weeks than Houck and Pivetta.

 

To me, the 5 should be...

 

Sale

Paxton

Bello

Whitlock

Houck

 

 

Funny thing, but I think Whitlock has an excellent repertoire--exactly what's needed to start. But in 2+ seasons his relieving has been way better than his starting. Maybe he is not physically strong enough to start, say, 30 games in a season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Funny thing, but I think Whitlock has an excellent repertoire--exactly what's needed to start. But in 2+ seasons his relieving has been way better than his starting. Maybe he is not physically strong enough to start, say, 30 games in a season.

 

Considering his intermittent turns through the rotation, it's a valid concern. But we have to assume Bloom didn't extend him (his first "core" guy locked up at reasonable multi) to be a reliever...

[mvp 78]

Pivetta should be nowhere near a pitching staff. He shouldn't have arms to throw a baseball with.

 

He was "passable" last season but has greatly regressed this year. More walks, more hard contact, worse GB rate. He's pitching the way he did in 2020 with the Phillies that got him traded here as an afterthought.

[moonslav59]

One glimmer of hope on Pivetta is that he seems to have some nice to very nice stretches, some lasting more than 2 months long. Maybe we can get one of those, this summer.

 

2020: 2 GS (10 IP)

1.80 ERA

 

2021: 12 GS (64 IP from 4/5 to 6/7)

3.78 ERA (3.42 FIP)

 

2022: 11 GS (74 IP from 5/7 to 6/27)

1.95 (3.17 FIP)

 

Also in 2022, 23 GS (135 IP from May 7 to Sept 7)

3.74 (3.91 FIP)

 

Also in 2022, 28 GS (159 IP from May 7 to end of season)

4.13 ERA (4.28 FIP)

[Bellhorn04]

Those were the lucky stretches.

[mvp 78]

Those were the lucky stretches.

 

Yes, he's not a very good pitcher.