Red Sox Relief Pitching 2023

[moonslav59]

Those were the lucky stretches.

 

We could use some "luck," now.

[moonslav59]

Yes, he's not a very good pitcher.

 

No he isn't, but he has been a fine #5 from the time he joined the Sox, until April 14th, 2023, or his last 7 starts.

[Hugh2]

I think Houck is going to get a longer look at the rotation.

 

 

 

I think he does too, and that could end up paying huge dividends for this team....or just put added pressure on the bullpen for a longer period of time. We will see.

[mvp 78]

No he isn't, but he has been a fine #5 from the time he joined the Sox, until April 14th, 2023, or his last 7 starts.

 

His EV on 4/4 was 97 mph! That 091 BABIP seems pretty damn lucky to me.

 

He was a 4.50 ERA guy from 21-22. Now he's pitching worse. It's not worth it to keep him around.

[Dipre]

He was "passable" last season but has greatly regressed this year. More walks, more hard contact, worse GB rate. He's pitching the way he did in 2020 with the Phillies that got him traded here as an afterthought.

 

He also has a terrible attitude, mind you. I saw the interview where he was flustered at the mere thought of pitching out of the BP. The gall.

 

My guy, you suck.

[mvp 78]

Nick Pivetta 7/1/22-5/24/23:

ERA 6.08

xFIP 4.55

K% 9.12

BB% 4.24

GSv2 41

QS 3

GS 25

 

He's been a little unlucky, but doesn't have a high enough ceiling to keep around for a rebound. Next!

[mvp 78]

He also has a terrible attitude, mind you. I saw the interview where he was flustered at the mere thought of pitching out of the BP. The gall.

 

My guy, you suck.

 

He walked it back a little while later, but probably had a "Come to Alex" meeting by that point.

[moonslav59]

Nick Pivetta 7/1/22-5/24/23:

ERA 6.08

xFIP 4.55

K% 9.12

BB% 4.24

GSv2 41

QS 3

GS 25

 

He's been a little unlucky, but doesn't have a high enough ceiling to keep around for a rebound. Next!

 

If his ERA equaled that 4.55 xFIP, he'd be one of baseball's best #5's.

 

(I'm NOT for putting him in the rotation, as of now. He might not even be my #6 or 7, either.)

[Dipre]

If his ERA equaled that 4.55 xFIP, he'd be one of baseball's best #5's.

 

(I'm NOT for putting him in the rotation, as of now. He might not even be my #6 or 7, either.)

 

No, he would not be.

[moonslav59]

No, he would not be.

 

Take a look at all the MLB 5th starters.

 

First of all, look at 2022, and you have to lower the IP to 80 to get a sample size of 150 pitchers (30 teams and 5 starters.)

 

If the top 30 are #1s, 31-60 are #2's and so on...

 

2022 ERAs:

#1- 1.75 to 2.94

#2- 2.99 to 3.55

#3- 3.58 to 4.19

#4- 4.23 to 4.90 (a 4.55 ERA would be a solid #4 SP'er)

#5- 4.92 to 6.31

 

Then, consider Pivetta's durability and IP factor. At 4.55, he'd be a good #4.

 

[mvp 78]

If his ERA equaled that 4.55 xFIP, he'd be one of baseball's best #5's.

 

(I'm NOT for putting him in the rotation, as of now. He might not even be my #6 or 7, either.)

 

Why aim for a "#5" when it could be a guy with upside like Whitlock or Houck instead?

[mvp 78]

Take a look at all the MLB 5th starters.

 

First of all, look at 2022, and you have to lower the IP to 80 to get a sample size of 150 pitchers (30 teams and 5 starters.)

 

If the top 30 are #1s, 31-60 are #2's and so on...

 

2022 ERAs:

#1- 1.75 to 2.94

#2- 2.99 to 3.55

#3- 3.58 to 4.19

#4- 4.23 to 4.90 (a 4.55 ERA would be a solid #4 SP'er)

#5- 4.92 to 6.31

 

Then, consider Pivetta's durability and IP factor. At 4.55, he'd be a good #4.

 

 

This is only true if every rotation is equally distributed in those 5 segments of the 150 pitchers. We know that isn't the case.

[moonslav59]

This is only true if every rotation is equally distributed in those 5 segments of the 150 pitchers. We know that isn't the case.

 

It is a crude way of looking at it, and certainly several teams have better 5th and 6th starters than Pivetta, but I still think a 4.55 ERA would place a pitcher in the #2 to #4 slot range for maybe 20 teams.

 

4.55 would likely be better than all but 4-6 team's number 5's. Just a guess.

[Dipre]

But you're not using ERA, you're using xFIP, which Pivetta underperforms consistenly anyway. We have to compare apples to apples.

[moonslav59]

But you're not using ERA, you're using xFIP, which Pivetta underperforms consistenly anyway. We have to compare apples to apples.

 

My point was that if his ERA was the same as his xFIP, he'd be a top 5th starter, and you said "no."

 

I never said they were equal.

[moonslav59]

But you're not using ERA, you're using xFIP, which Pivetta underperforms consistenly anyway. We have to compare apples to apples.

 

Pivetta's xFIP has been better than his ERA, every season. Is that what you were trying to say?

[Dipre]

My point was that if his ERA was the same as his xFIP, he'd be a top 5th starter, and you said "no."

 

I never said they were equal.

 

Then let's take it by point: A 5th starter who can't provide IP and has a 4.55 ERA is still bad. To be considered decent, even at the #5 spot, you either provide IP or provide run prevention, Pivetta does neither.

 

On xFIP, he consistently underperforms it, because he gives up a lot of hard contact besides the myriad other problems with his stuff quality and pitching style.

[moonslav59]

Then let's take it by point: A 5th starter who can't provide IP and has a 4.55 ERA is still bad. To be considered decent, even at the #5 spot, you either provide IP or provide run prevention, Pivetta does neither.

 

On xFIP, he consistently underperforms it, because he gives up a lot of hard contact besides the myriad other problems with his stuff quality and pitching style.

 

4.55 is not bad for a 5th starter. That is my point. These days 4.55 is a #3-#4 on most teams and don't go 170 IP, either.

 

Pivetta has given IP. he led the team in IP from 2021 to 2022 and was 28th in MLB in IP, and his ERA was 4.56.

 

4.56 ranked 11th out of 150 pitchers from 2021-2022.

 

Yes, that is "bad," but we are comparing him to other 5th starters ot #2s and 3s.

 

He does have a high hard hit % of 34%, which placed him at the bottom of the 4th tier out of 5 (119th out of 150.) His Line Drive% was 4oth best out of 150, however at 19.2%

Edited May 24, 2023 by moonslav59

[Dipre]

4.55 is not bad for a 5th starter. That is my point. These days 4.55 is a #3-#4 on most teams and don't go 170 IP, either.

 

Pivetta has given IP. he led the team in IP from 2021 to 2022 and was 28th in MLB in IP, and his ERA was 4.56.

 

4.56 ranked 11th out of 150 pitchers from 2021-2022.

 

Yes, that is "bad," but we are comparing him to other 5th starters ot #2s and 3s.

 

He does have a high hard hit % of 34%, which placed him at the bottom of the 4th tier out of 5 (119th out of 150.) His Line Drive% was 4oth best out of 150, however at 19.2%

 

It is bad if you're not providing IP. ERA is juat a part of a pitcher's value. You're arguing a silly point honestly.

[moonslav59]

It is bad if you're not providing IP. ERA is juat a part of a pitcher's value. You're arguing a silly point honestly.

 

Pivetta was our top IP guy from 2021-2022.

 

I made a hypothetical point about having an ERA equal to his xFIP (4.55).

 

4.56 was his actual ERA from 2021-2022 with the Sox, and he was top 30 in MLB in IP. How is that silly?

 

I'm not trying to defend Pivetta. He deserved to be demoted from the rotation and was not pitching well enough to be a good 5th starter for anyone.

 

Someone else uses xFIP to tell me pitchers aren't as good as they appear, so I switch it back on him, as Pivetta always has a better xFIP than ERA. I guess that could be viewed as silly, but to argue Pivetta wasn't a good 5th starter from 2021-2022 because of a lack of IP, is pretty silly, to me.

 

He was a good 5th starter for us for 2+ years, and when compared to most 5th starters, he had more IP by a lot, a better ERA and a better xFIP. Nothing silly about that.

[Dipre]

Pivetta was our top IP guy from 2021-2022.

 

I made a hypothetical point about having an ERA equal to his xFIP (4.55).

 

4.56 was his actual ERA from 2021-2022 with the Sox, and he was top 30 in MLB in IP. How is that silly?

 

I'm not trying to defend Pivetta. He deserved to be demoted from the rotation and was not pitching well enough to be a good 5th starter for anyone.

 

Someone else uses xFIP to tell me pitchers aren't as good as they appear, so I switch it back on him, as Pivetta always has a better xFIP than ERA. I guess that could be viewed as silly, but to argue Pivetta wasn't a good 5th starter from 2021-2022 because of a lack of IP, is pretty silly, to me.

 

He was a good 5th starter for us for 2+ years, and when compared to most 5th starters, he had more IP by a lot, a better ERA and a better xFIP. Nothing silly about that.

 

That's an indictment on the Sox, not a compliment for Pivetta, for one, and we're talking about current Pivetta. His year's worth of a good run is the outlier, not the norm. As a700hitter would say, he stinks.

[moonslav59]

That's an indictment on the Sox, not a compliment for Pivetta, for one, and we're talking about current Pivetta. His year's worth of a good run is the outlier, not the norm. As a700hitter would say, he stinks.

 

It was a hypothetical discussion. Nevermind.

 

We all agree: he stinks.

[Maxbialystock]

It was a hypothetical discussion. Nevermind.

 

We all agree: he stinks.

 

Yes, he stinks.

 

But he was useful in his past two seasons. I mean, if you think pitching the final four innings against the Rays, whom Pivetta held scoreless in 3d game of the 2021 ALDS to allow the Sox to win the game in 13 innings was useful.

 

Or how about last month at the Trop where he pitched 5 scoreless innings against the red hot Rays?

 

There are times--way too often--when Pivetta is so bad I think he is tipping his pitches. And there are other times when he is effective. I'm glad the Sox have not DFA'd him even though I'm not at all sure he will turn things around. Right now he is useful in the bullpen--in games in which the Sox are not expecting to win. By not starting he is in compliance with the hippocratic oath: first do no harm.

[moonslav59]

Yes, he stinks.

 

But he was useful in his past two seasons. I mean, if you think pitching the final four innings against the Rays, whom Pivetta held scoreless in 3d game of the 2021 ALDS to allow the Sox to win the game in 13 innings was useful.

 

Or how about last month at the Trop where he pitched 5 scoreless innings against the red hot Rays?

 

There are times--way too often--when Pivetta is so bad I think he is tipping his pitches. And there are other times when he is effective. I'm glad the Sox have not DFA'd him even though I'm not at all sure he will turn things around. Right now he is useful in the bullpen--in games in which the Sox are not expecting to win. By not starting he is in compliance with the hippocratic oath: first do no harm.

 

That was my only point. From 2021-2022, he was one of MLBs best 5th starters in production and IP, but only in comparison to other 5th starters. He was even better than maybe half the teams' 4th starters and some 3rd starters. I'm not sure why that concept is so hard to grasp.

 

Fine to disagree, but for posters to say he sucks now is not related to 2021-2022 talk.

 

[Dipre]

Then correction: He stinks *now* . Also has a bad attitude.

[mvp 78]

That was my only point. From 2021-2022, he was one of MLBs best 5th starters in production and IP, but only in comparison to other 5th starters. He was even better than maybe half the teams' 4th starters and some 3rd starters. I'm not sure why that concept is so hard to grasp.

 

Fine to disagree, but for posters to say he sucks now is not related to 2021-2022 talk.

 

 

No, he's sucked since 7/1/22. 6.08 ERA, 2 QS in 25 GS.

 

4/01/21-6/30/22: 4.04 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, 18 QS in 46 GS. He was good for this time period!

[moonslav59]

Then correction: He stinks *now* . Also has a bad attitude.

 

We all agreed and still agree, he sucks now. The talk was about 2021-2022, and I kept reminding you about that separate focus.

 

I think the whole attitude thing might have been blown out of proportion. The guy was upset about being demoted and wants to stay a starter. Just about every pitcher has an enormous ego and must have total belief in himself to be good (even if he is not good.)

 

YES, he SUCKs, NOW!

[mvp 78]

We all agreed and still agree, he sucks now. The talk was about 2021-2022, and I kept reminding you about that separate focus.

 

I think the whole attitude thing might have been blown out of proportion. The guy was upset about being demoted and wants to stay a starter. Just about every pitcher has an enormous ego and must have total belief in himself to be good (even if he is not good.)

 

YES, he SUCKs, NOW!

 

Moon, this is a wonderful post. Your current post total is 69,069. It's great. Just retire and frame the account. It's perfect the way it is.

[moonslav59]

No, he's sucked since 7/1/22. 6.08 ERA, 2 QS in 25 GS.

 

4/01/21-6/30/22: 4.04 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, 18 QS in 46 GS. He was good for this time period!

 

No argument on that chosen time frame, but if you look at 2021-2022 combined, he was one of the league's best 5th starters. Both points are not mutually exclusive.

 

Every player has ups and downs within a longer time frame.

 

I could pull this on your chosen time frame:

 

NO! He hasn't sucked since 7/1/22, because from 7/25/22 to 9/7/22 (9 starts) he had an ERA of 3.80 and a FIP of 4.23.

 

He was also 4.65 his last 14 starts of 2022- very close to the hypothetical 4.55 ERA spoken of earlier in this discussion.

[moonslav59]

Moon, this is a wonderful post. Your current post total is 69,069. It's great. Just retire and frame the account. It's perfect the way it is.

 

You'd love that. Nobody would ever fact check you.

 

If you could just keep up with what was actually said, your posts would improve.