Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[moonslav59]

No, but most of the others were good. Even the Scherzer trade worked out on their system…

 

Most are pretty close.

[notin]

I can't see Bloom saying no to Paulino and Walter for Snell.

 

But can you see the Padres’ GM saying no to that?

[Randy Red Sox]

Bloom has about 8 hours to do so

While both Houck and Whitlock may comeback and continue with ERAs in the 5's and FIPs in the 3's, it's not a given, and to me, I think at least one should do better. We won't need 5-6 IP, either. If just one can do what Pivetta is doing, we may squeak in the playoffs.

 

Sale would be an added bonus, but we should not count on 1 more IP from him, We need to trade for a SP, ASAP.

[mvp 78]

But can you see the Padres’ GM saying no to that?

 

Yes. Paulino has had a pretty bad season and Walter is an older prospect who looks destined for the bullpen.

[Larry Cook]

Yes. Paulino has had a pretty bad season and Walter is an older prospect who looks destined for the bullpen.

 

I would take Walter over Robertson every day of the week

[notin]

I would take Walter over Robertson every day of the week

 

We’ve seen one inning from Robertson…

[Bellhorn04]

We’ve seen one inning from Robertson…

 

Or 4.

[mvp 78]

I would take Walter over Robertson every day of the week

 

Sure? Robertson isn't a very good pitcher, but Walter hasn't been great either.

[Larry Cook]

Sure? Robertson isn't a very good pitcher, but Walter hasn't been great either.

 

Walter’s stuff is below average. But still better than Robertson’s

[mvp 78]

Walter’s stuff is below average. But still better than Robertson’s

 

Robertson is younger and has better AAA numbers than Walter.

[moonslav59]

Robertson is younger and has better AAA numbers than Walter.

 

I'm sure you have better stats than I do, but these aren't too bad:

 

Walter

2022:

3.59 ERA/ 0.902 WHIP (58 IP) an awesome .585 OPS Against (only Bello and Politi had more IP and a better OPSA)

2021:

2.92 ERA/0.974 WHIP (89 IP)

2019:

2.70 ERA/1.020 WHIP (33 IP)

 

Robertson

2023:

2.87/1.117 (31 IP)

2022:

4.43/1.373 (67)

2019:

1.65/0.612 (36)

[Larry Cook]

I thought sale was impressive tonight

[moonslav59]

I thought sale was impressive tonight

 

Pretty close to vintage.

 

Remember, his previous 8 starts before the IL, he was at...

 

2.87 ERA

2.71 FIP

.633 OPS Against

 

He just has to stay off the IL.

 

Slowly ramp up his pitches/innings per start.

 

[notin]

I thought sale was impressive tonight

 

He was superb.

 

I hated to see the quick hook, but I do totally understand it. I think a big part of my disappointment was that the hook brought in Barraclaugh…

[mvp 78]

I'm sure you have better stats than I do, but these aren't too bad:

 

Walter

2022:

3.59 ERA/ 0.902 WHIP (58 IP) an awesome .585 OPS Against (only Bello and Politi had more IP and a better OPSA)

2021:

2.92 ERA/0.974 WHIP (89 IP)

2019:

2.70 ERA/1.020 WHIP (33 IP)

 

Robertson

2023:

2.87/1.117 (31 IP)

2022:

4.43/1.373 (67)

2019:

1.65/0.612 (36)

 

I said AAA stats and you’re adding in AA and lower for Walter. Why?

[moonslav59]

I said AAA stats and you’re adding in AA and lower for Walter. Why?

 

I know you said AAA. Can't anyone add to the points made for a deeper understanding?

[mvp 78]

I know you said AAA. Can't anyone add to the points made for a deeper understanding?

 

Walter has been worse since hitting AAA and coming back from injury.

 

Robertson has shown that he can pitch well at AAA. Walter hasn’t, especially after his stuff ticking back since injury. Walter’s AA numbers are virtually meaningless to how he’ll pitch in BOS at the moment. His pitching at AAA is a better indicator.

[Maxbialystock]

Bloom has about 8 hours to do so

 

Bloom passed on getting another starter--to which I say, "wild applause! Best no-trade of the season!"

 

The Sox current rotation is now Bello, Paxton, Good Sale, Crawford, and Pivetta. Not too shabby. Tomorrow Whitlock returns and 2 days later Houck, so that Cora will then have three pretty good long relievers in Murphy, Whitlock, and Houck, and after them he has Jansen, Martin, Shreiber, Winckowski, Bernardino, and Barraclough (the jerk who came in last night with 2 outs in the 5th and a man on and immediately went to work to get that Tigers runner home with a walk and a single).

[notin]

Bloom passed on getting another starter--to which I say, "wild applause! Best no-trade of the season!"

 

The Sox current rotation is now Bello, Paxton, Good Sale, Crawford, and Pivetta. Not too shabby. Tomorrow Whitlock returns and 2 days later Houck, so that Cora will then have three pretty good long relievers in Murphy, Whitlock, and Houck, and after them he has Jansen, Martin, Shreiber, Winckowski, Bernardino, and Barraclough (the jerk who came in last night with 2 outs in the 5th and a man on and immediately went to work to get that Tigers runner home with a walk and a single).

 

I like the rotation of Sale/Paxton/Bello/Crawford/Pivetta

 

And the bullpen with

 

Jansen/Martin/Winckowski/Whitlock/Schreiber/Houck/Bernardino/Murphy.

 

And especially the pending DFA of Llovera/Barraclaugh.

 

But some depth would be nice. Especially at SP…

[moonslav59]

Walter has been worse since hitting AAA and coming back from injury.

 

Robertson has shown that he can pitch well at AAA. Walter hasn’t, especially after his stuff ticking back since injury. Walter’s AA numbers are virtually meaningless to how he’ll pitch in BOS at the moment. His pitching at AAA is a better indicator.

 

I'm not arguing Walter is better than Robertson. I agree with your position. Just because I provide some data that supports Walter does not mean I am trying to convince you and others he is better.

 

Walter's OPS Against in AA/AAA was third best in the whole Sox system. In 57.2 innings, he K'd 75 and walked only 7- one of the best K/BB ratios in minor league baseball.

 

Yes, his 7.2 IP in AAA, last year were not good, and this year 72 IP, as well, but you never know.

 

2023 AAA

ERA/OPS Against

5.50/.802 Walter

7.01/.881 Murphy

 

Again, I like Robertson more. I just wanted to give a more full look at Walter's career.

 

[moonslav59]

Bloom passed on getting another starter--to which I say, "wild applause! Best no-trade of the season!"

 

The Sox current rotation is now Bello, Paxton, Good Sale, Crawford, and Pivetta. Not too shabby. Tomorrow Whitlock returns and 2 days later Houck, so that Cora will then have three pretty good long relievers in Murphy, Whitlock, and Houck, and after them he has Jansen, Martin, Shreiber, Winckowski, Bernardino, and Barraclough (the jerk who came in last night with 2 outs in the 5th and a man on and immediately went to work to get that Tigers runner home with a walk and a single).

 

Would it really have been all that bad to trade Paulino and Drohan for a decent SP'er?

 

If we ended up with 6-7 decent SP'ers, after everyone returns, the pen would be greatly improved by moving Houck, Whitlock or someone else to the pen.

 

The pen needs some innings eaters and has been taxed a lot, recently.

 

Our Staff would be better adding starters to the pen and not keeping guys like Llovera, Barraclough and Jacques there.

 

Also, thinking we will finish the year with no pitchers going on the IL, means you should be okay with one of those scubs coming back up.

[Randy Red Sox]

I totally agree but you have to pay real $$ to get decent pitching and Bloom/Henry have been unwilling to do so up to this point.

Would it really have been all that bad to trade Paulino and Drohan for a decent SP'er?

 

If we ended up with 6-7 decent SP'ers, after everyone returns, the pen would be greatly improved by moving Houck, Whitlock or someone else to the pen.

 

The pen needs some innings eaters and has been taxed a lot, recently.

 

Our Staff would be better adding starters to the pen and not keeping guys like Llovera, Barraclough and Jacques there.

 

Also, thinking we will finish the year with no pitchers going on the IL, means you should be okay with one of those scubs coming back up.

[moonslav59]

I totally agree but you have to pay real $$ to get decent pitching and Bloom/Henry have been unwilling to do so up to this point.

 

JH has a history of spending big, then cutting back and resetting, then spending big, again, including on pitching- free agents, extensions or trading for higher salary pitchers.

 

Using "Bloom's history" as any sort of predictor of what may come is not something I agree on.

 

At some point, the plan will be adjusted. IMO, spending on pitching, one way or another, including maybe trading prospects for a controllable pitcher is going to happen, again.

 

Will Bloom still be here when that happens? Who knows?

 

I have to think Bloom knows we need pitching. He also knows he's not drafting or signing IFA pitchers at a rate needed to expect many from the farm system. I'm choosing not to think he's that dumb to not find a way to make it happen.

 

I know, I know, you will ask, "Why hasn't he done it already?" I'll answer, "Good question. It's one of my biggest beefs with Bloom. Low budgets or not, he could have dedicated more funds to the rotation than he has." He's never spent more than $10M/1 on any SP'er. He had a bigger budget, this past winter, and he still did not go higher. What makes that worse is that both $10M/1 guys were busts: Richards and Kluber. He did a little better with the next tier signings (Perez I, Perez II, Wacha and Hill,) but that has never been enough, in my eyes.

 

[Larry Cook]

JH has a history of spending big, then cutting back and resetting, then spending big, again, including on pitching- free agents, extensions or trading for higher salary pitchers.

 

Using "Bloom's history" as any sort of predictor of what may come is not something I agree on.

 

At some point, the plan will be adjusted. IMO, spending on pitching, one way or another, including maybe trading prospects for a controllable pitcher is going to happen, again.

 

Will Bloom still be here when that happens? Who knows?

 

I have to think Bloom knows we need pitching. He also knows he's not drafting or signing IFA pitchers at a rate needed to expect many from the farm system. I'm choosing not to think he's that dumb to not find a way to make it happen.

 

I know, I know, you will ask, "Why hasn't he done it already?" I'll answer, "Good question. It's one of my biggest beefs with Bloom. Low budgets or not, he could have dedicated more funds to the rotation than he has." He's never spent more than $10M/1 on any SP'er. He had a bigger budget, this past winter, and he still did not go higher. What makes that worse is that both $10M/1 guys were busts: Richards and Kluber. He did a little better with the next tier signings (Perez I, Perez II, Wacha and Hill,) but that has never been enough, in my eyes.

 

 

Very few of his contracts are long term deals.

 

It seems like he is building a cost controlled group of position players, and that he intends to use the farm system to replenish these guys!

 

But I have yet to see a strategy for pitching

[moonslav59]

Very few of his contracts are long term deals.

 

It seems like he is building a cost controlled group of position players, and that he intends to use the farm system to replenish these guys!

 

But I have yet to see a strategy for pitching

 

It could be it really was a 5 year plan all along, but they were just afraid to day it out loud, in public.

 

Last winter, they did sign more seals longer than 1 year than the previous 3, combined. That is pretty telling. True, many were just 2 year deals or one year deals with options, but it might be showing they feel we are getting closer to a time where some longer term deals make sense.

 

We have some farm help, finally, and with more coming, soon.

We have budget space, and Sale's contract expiring after 2024.

We lose just two key players, this winter: Paxton and Turner (who both could be re-signed along with others.)

 

I'm done predicting "this is the winter we start spending, again," but I'm going to say it might be. (Maybe they wait until 2025, but we have a lot of contracts expiring after 2024, and some good players, at that.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

It could be it really was a 5 year plan all along, but they were just afraid to day it out loud, in public.

 

Last winter, they did sign more seals longer than 1 year than the previous 3, combined. That is pretty telling. True, many were just 2 year deals or one year deals with options, but it might be showing they feel we are getting closer to a time where some longer term deals make sense.

 

We have some farm help, finally, and with more coming, soon.

We have budget space, and Sale's contract expiring after 2024.

We lose just two key players, this winter: Paxton and Turner (who both could be re-signed along with others.)

 

I'm done predicting "this is the winter we start spending, again," but I'm going to say it might be. (Maybe they wait until 2025, but we have a lot of contracts expiring after 2024, and some good players, at that.

 

 

Bloom had best add some quality starting pitching or it's gonna get ugly next year. of course his defenders will say it's really a 10 or 15 year plan instead of 5.

[moonslav59]

Bloom had best add some quality starting pitching or it's gonna get ugly next year. of course his defenders will say it's really a 10 or 15 year plan instead of 5.

 

Wrong.

 

If we end this year, poorly, I will hold it against Bloom, like I promised I would.

 

The only way I'll defend Bloom in 2024 is if JH tightens the budget.

 

I promise.

 

(Note: I will continue providing context to any points being overly critical or overly generous towards some aspect of Bloom's choices, but he will have an overall grade at C or below, from me.)

[Old Red]

Bloom had best add some quality starting pitching or it's gonna get ugly next year. of course his defenders will say it's really a 10 or 15 year plan instead of 5.

 

Right now outside of Bello who can you count on in the rotation next year.

[moonslav59]

Right now outside of Bello who can you count on in the rotation next year.

 

Pivetta as a 4/5.

 

Crawford as a 4/5.

 

That's why we need a solid 2 & 3. (I'd prefer an ace and a #2, or 2 solid #2's to go with Bello, who I see as a solid number 2.)

Edited August 13, 2023 by moonslav59

[Duran Is The Man]

Wrong.

 

If we end this year, poorly, I will hold it against Bloom, like I promised I would.

 

The only way I'll defend Bloom in 2024 is if JH tightens the budget.

 

I promise.

 

(Note: I will continue providing context to any points being overly critical or overly generous towards some aspect of Bloom's choices, but he will have an overall grade at C or below, from me.)

 

 

sorry...i didn't mean to sound if i was pointing you out as one of "Bloom's defenders". i've always considered your analysis -on anything- as very fair-minded. a bit overly-optimistic at times but very fair.