Red Sox Starting Rotation 2023

[notin]

You think a $5.3M x 3 contract is big risk?

 

You are for DFA'ing about that much in Kluber and Bleier, right now.

 

Was Wacha going to sign that deal?

[notin]

Wacha's contract is one of those fancy ones with a team option and a player option after the first year. The team option is at a much higher price, similar to Paxton's.

 

The team option is $32mill over two, but the player option is $18.5mill over 3, I believe…

[Maxbialystock]

The team option is $32mill over two, but the player option is $18.5mill over 3, I believe…

 

A revelation!

[moonslav59]

Was Wacha going to sign that deal?

 

He did sign it.

 

The $5.3M x 3 is what the cost was above the Kluber $10M/1 deal. That was my point about the long term risk of his deal. It was only $16M more but 3 more years than Kluber, which amounts to the difference of $5.3M x 3.

 

Also, to me $26M/4 looked better than nate's $34M/2 deal.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Sale, Paxton and Bello are a pretty damn good 1-2-3. Houck had an excellent start last night, but let's see how he fares on his next start. Whitlock is still an unknown quantity. But, imho, those 5 give the SOX the best potential for a 5 man staff. If Kluber was just good enough to be a #5, that would free up either Whit or Houck to join the BP, but I just don't see that happening. Edited May 23, 2023 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[notin]

He did sign it.

 

The $5.3M x 3 is what the cost was above the Kluber $10M/1 deal. That was my point about the long term risk of his deal. It was only $16M more but 3 more years than Kluber, which amounts to the difference of $5.3M x 3.

 

Also, to me $26M/4 looked better than nate's $34M/2 deal.

 

Wacha wasn’t signing for the difference over Kluber. And his $6.5mill AAV is certainly small potatoes, but for four years, he’s a risk. When was the last time he had a good 4 year run? Or three year run?

 

I get passing, and not being happy with Kluber isn’t relevant to that.

 

I also get why the Sox passed Eovaldi, or at least why it makes sense to have done so. But I take Eovaldi for two years over Wacha for 4 ten times out of ten. Because 1. Eovaldi is flat out better and 2. Two years!

[moonslav59]

Wacha wasn’t signing for the difference over Kluber. And his $6.5mill AAV is certainly small potatoes, but for four years, he’s a risk. When was the last time he had a good 4 year run? Or three year run?

 

I get passing, and not being happy with Kluber isn’t relevant to that.

 

I also get why the Sox passed Eovaldi, or at least why it makes sense to have done so. But I take Eovaldi for two years over Wacha for 4 ten times out of ten. Because 1. Eovaldi is flat out better and 2. Two years!

 

The conversation drifted towards signing Nat or wacha, instead of Kluber, so I just highlighted what the differences would have been. Kluber for one year at $10, and then minus that $10M/1 from Nate and wacha leaves....

 

$24M x for Nate (2024) $34M/2 - $10M/1.

$16M x 3 for Wacha (2024-2026) $26M/4 - $10M/1

 

Yes, both have risks, but I do not think $5.3M x 3 for Wacha over the next 3 years is all that catastrophic, and he does have a chance at being decent.

[Bellhorn04]

The conversation drifted towards signing Nat or wacha, instead of Kluber, so I just highlighted what the differences would have been. Kluber for one year at $10, and then minus that $10M/1 from Nate and wacha leaves....

 

$24M x for Nate (2024) $34M/2 - $10M/1.

$16M x 3 for Wacha (2024-2026) $26M/4 - $10M/1

 

Yes, both have risks, but I do not think $5.3M x 3 for Wacha over the next 3 years is all that catastrophic, and he does have a chance at being decent.

 

Just have to keep in mind there's no guarantee the Padres keep Wacha at that rate. It's a player option. He can decline and become a free agent. The only way the Padres can guarantee keeping him is at the higher amount of the team option.

[moonslav59]

Just have to keep in mind there's no guarantee the Padres keep Wacha at that rate. It's a player option. He can decline and become a free agent. The only way the Padres can guarantee keeping him is at the higher amount of the team option.

 

I did not know this when I first made my point, but if he does well, we (and the Padres) would want that deal, if not they may end up with the player option taken, and those numbers change.

 

I still like the Wacha gamble more than the Kluber one, and this is not in hindsight.

[mvp 78]

Wacha wasn’t signing for the difference over Kluber. And his $6.5mill AAV is certainly small potatoes, but for four years, he’s a risk. When was the last time he had a good 4 year run? Or three year run?

 

I get passing, and not being happy with Kluber isn’t relevant to that.

 

I also get why the Sox passed Eovaldi, or at least why it makes sense to have done so. But I take Eovaldi for two years over Wacha for 4 ten times out of ten. Because 1. Eovaldi is flat out better and 2. Two years!

 

A million bazillion percent...

[Maxbialystock]

I did not know this when I first made my point, but if he does well, we (and the Padres) would want that deal, if not they may end up with the player option taken, and those numbers change.

 

I still like the Wacha gamble more than the Kluber one, and this is not in hindsight.

 

Agree. Wacha hasn't been all that consistent over the years, but he's younger than Kluber and had a good season last year.

[moonslav59]

A million bazillion percent...

 

If Wacha gives 2 good years, he's worth $26M- a trizillion percent!

 

He's on his way to one.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Agree. Wacha hasn't been all that consistent over the years, but he's younger than Kluber and had a good season last year.

 

And yet, over the winter, some posters argued Kluber was the better "pitcher" -- as if a wily senior more likely to get by on guile... it certainly wasn't stuff last year, when Kluber was a .500 starter who lost the final postseason game for a playoff team, and Wacha was an .846 starter on a last place team.

[moonslav59]

Agree. Wacha hasn't been all that consistent over the years, but he's younger than Kluber and had a good season last year.

 

He's had 3 good seasons and 3 others not so bad or with limited IP. That's close to half his seasons, and people are making it sound like he has a 1 in 10 chance at having a good season.

 

OK, 3 seasons in a row before 2022 is concerning, but he did have a 4.47 FIP in 2021, so he wasn't horrific.

 

Nate was at 5.99 in 2019 and missed a big chunk of time (25% or more) in 2020 and 2021.

 

Wacha has a career 4.03 ERA and a 4.05 FIP. The 5.11 ERA from 2019-2021 should ot be swept under the rug, but it is also not the be all end all point. Yes, he misses time, too, but...

 

2019-2022 IP

413 Wacha

408 Nate

281 Kluber

 

2020-2022

340 Nate

286 Wacha

245 Kluber

 

2021-2022

293 Nate

252 Wacha

244 Kluber

[moonslav59]

And yet, over the winter, some posters argued Kluber was the better "pitcher" -- as if a wily senior more likely to get by on guile... it certainly wasn't stuff last year, when Kluber was a .500 starter who lost the final postseason game for a playoff team, and Wacha was an .846 starter on a last place team.

 

I was not impressed with the higher price SP'er options, this year. I was okay with signing Kluber and expected better than this, for sure.

 

I would not have paid Nate for 2 years and lose the comp pick.

 

I was skeptical about the Eflin attempt, but that would have been nice.

 

I liked Wacha and thought he'd get $26M/3 or $20M/2.

[mvp 78]

If Wacha gives 2 good years, he's worth $26M- a trizillion percent!

 

He's on his way to one.

 

His xFIP is a full run higher than his ERA. Let's see how it shakes out over the long haul. He also needed time off last year and many years before that.

[moonslav59]

His xFIP is a full run higher than his ERA. Let's see how it shakes out over the long haul. He also needed time off last year and many years before that.

 

I'm not sure what to read into the xFIP v ERA point. It seems like every good ERA season he has had, his xFIP is worse, and every bad season he has had, his xFIP is better- sometimes by a lot.

 

ERA/ xFIP

2.78/3.36

3.20/3.71

3.38/3.88

5.09/4.05

4.13/3.88

3.20/4.12

4.76/4.80 (2019 is the only trend buster, but still: every other ERA season over 4.00 has a better xFIP)

6.62/4.30

5.05/3.91

3.32/3.99

3.58/4.61 (Every season with an ERA below 4.00 had a worse xFIP)

 

If you are going to us xFIP and ERA differentials to put Wacha down, then shouldn't you also be saying he was much better during his "off years" than the number showed?

 

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure what to read into the xFIP v ERA point. It seems like every good ERA season he has had, his xFIP is worse, and every bad season he has had, his xFIP is better- sometimes by a lot.

 

ERA/ xFIP

2.78/3.36

3.20/3.71

3.38/3.88

5.09/4.05

4.13/3.88

3.20/4.12

4.76/4.80 (2019 is the only trend buster, but still: every other ERA season over 4.00 has a better xFIP)

6.62/4.30

5.05/3.91

3.32/3.99

3.58/4.61 (Every season with an ERA below 4.00 had a worse xFIP)

 

If you are going to us xFIP and ERA differentials to put Wacha down, then shouldn't you also be saying he was much better during his "off years" than the number showed?

 

 

Yes, in 2016 when his ERA was 5 but his xFIP was 4, he was a better pitcher than his ERA showed. Same with 2020 and 2021. I think he's generally a 4.50 type pitcher. His low 3 ERA years are an anomaly. He's given up 1 run in his past 25 innings and I don't think that's going to last. He just doesn't have overwhelming stuff like that. There's still a lot of blue on his Statcast page.

[moonslav59]

Yes, in 2016 when his ERA was 5 but his xFIP was 4, he was a better pitcher than his ERA showed. Same with 2020 and 2021. I think he's generally a 4.50 type pitcher. His low 3 ERA years are an anomaly. He's given up 1 run in his past 25 innings and I don't think that's going to last. He just doesn't have overwhelming stuff like that. There's still a lot of blue on his Statcast page.

 

His higher xFIP is farther from his career xFIP than his ERA is from his career ERA.

[mvp 78]

His higher xFIP is farther from his career xFIP than his ERA is from his career ERA.

 

Not sure what his stats from age 21-26 have to do with who he is as a pitcher now?

 

Since 2019, his xFIP is 4.29 with an ERA of 4.49. That seems like the Wacha that I expect going forward.

[Dipre]

Wacha's xERA is above 4, even though he's been decidedly lucky with his outcomes given the quality of his stuff.

[moonslav59]

Not sure what his stats from age 21-26 have to do with who he is as a pitcher now?

 

Since 2019, his xFIP is 4.29 with an ERA of 4.49. That seems like the Wacha that I expect going forward.

 

About what I expected from Nate and better than Kluber's expectations.

[moonslav59]

Not sure what his stats from age 21-26 have to do with who he is as a pitcher now?

 

Since 2019, his xFIP is 4.29 with an ERA of 4.49. That seems like the Wacha that I expect going forward.

 

Not sure why 2019 matters, then, either, or why it matters more than 2018.

 

My point was that his xFIP seems out of whack, too, and pretty much always does- one way or the other.

 

[Dipre]

For what it's worth, Wacha has also been a horror show, and considering some of his value comes from somewhat suppressing BA and XBH even though he's below the 50th percentile in xSLG, xBA, and Barrel%, it's a fair bet to assume he'd have much worse numbers in the ALE and pitching his home games at Fenway.

[notin]

For what it's worth, Wacha has also been a horror show, and considering some of his value comes from somewhat suppressing BA and XBH even though he's below the 50th percentile in xSLG, xBA, and Barrel%, it's a fair bet to assume he'd have much worse numbers in the ALE and pitching his home games at Fenway.

 

That’s what happens when you field a team with five shortstops behind your pitcher…

[moonslav59]

That’s what happens when you field a team with five shortstops behind your pitcher…

 

LOL vs our team with none.

[Dipre]

Defense can't stop homers and can barely stop line drives. At the rate Wacha's giving up barrels , he'll start giving up homers in bunches sooner rather than later.

[notin]

Defense can't stop homers and can barely stop line drives. At the rate Wacha's giving up barrels , he'll start giving up homers in bunches sooner rather than later.

 

Defense can’t stop homers, but Petco can…

[Dipre]

The Petco effect is overrated now. They pulled the fences in and it doesn't play as extremely pitcher friendly as it used to. Same for Coors at the other end of the spectrum.

[moonslav59]

The Petco effect is overrated now. They pulled the fences in and it doesn't play as extremely pitcher friendly as it used to. Same for Coors at the other end of the spectrum.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/park-factors.php#:~:text=Park%20Factor%20(PF)%20compares%20the,than%201.000%20favors%20the%20pitcher.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors