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A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

moonslav59

By moonslav59
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moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

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I think they properly achieved in 2021. I think the core was decent. The only player that really overachieved was Nasty Nate. Now imagine if Bloom had actually added a good SP that offseason!

 

IMO, the whole pen, which was very similar to the 2022 pen, way over-achieved.

 

Kike & Dalbec had career years, and Renfroe one of his best, but that is not a lot. Not like 2013.

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moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

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Before Opening Day? That sounds on the high side. Before Memorial Day? That's probably 50-60%.

 

If we get to Memorial Day with no SP'er injuries, I'm projecting a second place finish.

 

If we get to June 30th with just 1 of the 6 losing significant time- the same, unless of course, a bunch all go down, at the same time, like 2022.

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If a fan is not excited about watching Casas, Bello, Whitlock, Houck and new additions, they need to go be a Yankee fan.

 

So f***ing tired of all the negativity. We have won 4 World Series in last 20 years. Go suck on that.

 

We also have the most promising farm since the early DD days or even back 10 years ago.

 

If we reset, this year, I see no reason to doubt we will be going for an extended window starting in 2024, but I think 2023 should not be written off.

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1. Fun trivia (don't go to ESPN site) - who was the last Red Sox 1B to put up >= 3 wins above replacement in a season?

 

 

Napoli?

 

Youk?

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I'm not sure any of the pitchers will top 120 IP this season - well, besides Pivetta

 

My guess is 2-3 others will- just don't ask me to name them.

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If Casas, and Bello break out this year that will be exciting, but Whitlock, and Houck not so much. Losing breeds, and brings negativity. If you want it to stop like I keep saying get better, and win more games, and get into the postseason. If they don’t the negativity will not only continue, but get even worse.

 

Why wouldn't Whitlock, Houck or any other player breaking out not be exciting?

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moonslav59

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I disagree:

Kluber

Pivetta

Bello

Sale

 

120 isn't a really high number. Even frequently injured Michael Wacha got there last year.

 

No Whitlock at 120?

mvp 78 GOAT

mvp 78

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1. Fun trivia (don't go to ESPN site) - who was the last Red Sox 1B to put up >= 3 wins above replacement in a season?

 

2. Casas, Bello, Whitlock will be fun. Yoshida is fun just as a mystery. The REAL fun would be is Rafaela did enough to get a call up before September.

 

bWAR or fWAR?

 

If I had to guess, maybe Youk? Did Napoli get to 3bWAR?

mvp 78 GOAT

mvp 78

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No Whitlock at 120?

 

I think he's going to piggyback at first with Paxton which will reduce his innings. He dealt with an injury last season in his first stint in the rotation. Maybe he just can't stick in the rotation? Maybe Paxton does just enough to stick around in the rotation long enough to keep Whitlock's innings down? IDK. The other 4 I wouldn't hold back on.

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I think he's going to piggyback at first with Paxton which will reduce his innings. He dealt with an injury last season in his first stint in the rotation. Maybe he just can't stick in the rotation? Maybe Paxton does just enough to stick around in the rotation long enough to keep Whitlock's innings down? IDK. The other 4 I wouldn't hold back on.

 

I'd give Whitlock better odds than Paxton at getting to 120.

mvp 78 GOAT

mvp 78

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bWAR or fWAR?

 

If I had to guess, maybe Youk? Did Napoli get to 3bWAR?

 

I forgot that Adrian Gonzalez was a Red Sox. Either AGon or Napoli.

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5GoldGlovesOF,75

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If we get to Memorial Day with no SP'er injuries, I'm projecting a second place finish.

 

If we get to June 30th with just 1 of the 6 losing significant time- the same, unless of course, a bunch all go down, at the same time, like 2022.

 

Calling last year's pitching staff MASH bad luck would be ignoring the odds of recruiting and relying upon old and rehabbing starters -- which basically all of us here were worried about as early as March. The mediocre minor leaguers called up as replacements also reflected a lack of organizational depth and planning.

 

I loved watching Sale when he ruled, and respect the achievements of Kluber and Paxton. It would great if Whitlock or Bello (who didn't just excel but dominated at every level) emerge as All-Stars. Houck was perfect the final weekend in '21, MIA in Toronto in '22. Pivetta led the AL in starts last year and was a '21 postseason hero. ST is a time of optimism, but rationally, we can all see why this rotation still has a lot of downside this year...

mvp 78 GOAT

mvp 78

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Calling last year's pitching staff MASH bad luck would be ignoring the odds of recruiting and relying upon old and rehabbing starters -- which basically all of us here were worried about as early as March. The mediocre minor leaguers called up as replacements also reflected a lack of organizational depth and planning.

 

I loved watching Sale when he ruled, and respect the achievements of Kluber and Paxton. It would great if Whitlock or Bello (who didn't just excel but dominated at every level) emerge as All-Stars. Houck was perfect the final weekend in '21, MIA in Toronto in '22. Pivetta led the AL in starts last year and was a '21 postseason hero. ST is a time of optimism, but rationally, we can all see why this rotation still has a lot of downside this year...

 

Kluber pitched a full season last year. Pivetta pitched a full season last year. Bello pitched a full season last year. The question marks are Sale, Paxton and Whitlock. I'm just assuming that Sale's competitiveness is going to win out one of these years so may as well bet on this one. He said he's "a real boy" this year so he must be ready to go.

 

Last year's staff included the ever injured Eovaldi, Mr Half-Year Rich Hill and Wacha who seems to reach his annual innings limit at 125 since 2018. There are question marks about this season, but I feel better about these question marks.

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

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Calling last year's pitching staff MASH bad luck would be ignoring the odds of recruiting and relying upon old and rehabbing starters -- which basically all of us here were worried about as early as March. The mediocre minor leaguers called up as replacements also reflected a lack of organizational depth and planning.

 

I loved watching Sale when he ruled, and respect the achievements of Kluber and Paxton. It would great if Whitlock or Bello (who didn't just excel but dominated at every level) emerge as All-Stars. Houck was perfect the final weekend in '21, MIA in Toronto in '22. Pivetta led the AL in starts last year and was a '21 postseason hero. ST is a time of optimism, but rationally, we can all see why this rotation still has a lot of downside this year...

 

Call me a homer, but I like our SP'er depth much better than 2022.

 

1. There is no Seabold.

2. Crawford and Wink are a year older and should not be viewed as worse choices than last year. If they don't look sharp, they will be replaced by others (see #3.)

3. Mata, Walter and Murphy look better, to me, than Wink, Crawford and Seabold looked last February.

4. Houck is still an option.

5. Whitlock should be a nice addition.

6. Bello showed signs of sticking around for a while, after a rough start to his career.

7. Paxton and Sale are not looking at July and August ETAs. It's not like these two are 39.

8. Kluber seems to be a better gamble for 2023 than he looked to be in his previous 2 Februarys.

9. Pivetta has been a steady workhorse who has had 2 pretty long stretches of pitching like a #3 or even a #2, during each of the last 2 seasons. Maybe he can put together a full season of pitching like a 3/4 slot starter.

10. We just need 4-5 to look good, and not have 2-3 be hurt, at the same time.

moonslav59 GOAT

moonslav59

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Kluber pitched a full season last year. Pivetta pitched a full season last year. Bello pitched a full season last year. The question marks are Sale, Paxton and Whitlock. I'm just assuming that Sale's competitiveness is going to win out one of these years so may as well bet on this one. He said he's "a real boy" this year so he must be ready to go.

 

Last year's staff included the ever injured Eovaldi, Mr Half-Year Rich Hill and Wacha who seems to reach his annual innings limit at 125 since 2018. There are question marks about this season, but I feel better about these question marks.

 

Me, too.

 

Even a guy like Paxton seems like a better bet, this year than the past two.

 

I know Whitlock still has a lot to prove as a wire-to-wire SP'er, but if health or youth can be on our side, we should be able to yank him early or give him an off day, here and there, to help keep him fresh, all year.

 

Having a stronger pen will help Cora decide on a quick hook a little more often, this year than last, although he was often accused of being too quick, last year with an awful pen.

 

I'm not sure if the warming spring is fueling my optimism, but I'm feeling better and better about our chances as the days go by, despite no new additions or changes in players' outlooks.

Bellhorn04 MVP

Bellhorn04

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Original poster said “no checking ESPN” which uses bWAR only.

 

Original poster did not specify bWAR, however. I would have to rule in favor of the moonster on this one.

mvp 78 GOAT

mvp 78

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Original poster did not specify bWAR, however. I would have to rule in favor of the moonster on this one.

 

No, but it implies that ESPN has the correct answer, which would be the 3+ bWAR. Your ruling is denied.

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