A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

It looks like the two teams we have to beat out to make the playoffs might be the Jays and Texas.

 

I think we have to beat out TOR, and it will come down to BAL or TEX. We need to pass one more team, and it is doubtful it will be TBR or HOU and we can't beat out the ALC winner. NYY might be the third easiest team to pass. (Easiest not easy.)

[Bellhorn04]

I do get what you're saying, moon. But I find it very disturbing that not one single starter has done well with McGuire. Kluber pitched to Wong once and did OK.

 

The real question is becoming which starters can McGuire catch going forward? Pivetta has been bounced from the rotation so it only leaves Kluber, and his days in the rotation may be numbered too.

[Maxbialystock]

I don't doubt the reasoning, but certainly catching almost all of Kluber and none of Paxton Houck and Whitlock and little from sale should create a massive adjustment situation or context inclusion into the analysis, right? Then, most of Sale's IP have been with Wong, and both of Paxton's starts have been with Wong. (maybe they'd all have worse numbers had it been McGuire, but it's impossible to know.)

 

I'm not arguing McGuire is better- just that the overall CERA numbers are almost always deceiving, and are now.

 

Why not ask why Whitlock and Houck are doing way worse than 2022, when only one catcher has caught them in 2023? I'm not asking this because I think the answer matters, but if you ask about McGuire vs Wong, then you should also ask this to yourself.

 

A lot of our pitchers are doing much worse than last year or previous/recent years. Why? It does not seem to matter who has been catching them. Almost all are doing worse.

 

Only Wink and Crawford are showing massive gains, and weirdly, both have done better with McGuire. Why?

 

You don't seem to acknowledge these aspects of the situation that favor McGuire.

 

My guess is that right now the starters prefer Wong. In the last 5 games Wong caught Bello, Paxton, Sale, and Houck--and McGuire caught Kluber.

[moonslav59]

I do get what you're saying, moon. But I find it very disturbing that not one single starter has done well with McGuire.

 

Crawford has as many GS'd as Paxton and did better with McGuire, so technically, this is not true.

 

The fact that 4 of 8 SP'ers have only been caught by one catcher - Whitlock, Houck, paxton and Crawford (both starts with Wong with an 8.00 ERA, BTW,) and Kluber is 8 to 1 makes your statement very deceiving.

 

The 5 pitchers with significant time with both catchers are divided 3 to 2 in Wong's favor, but you want to focus on only SP'er.

 

I think, if you put Whitlock, Houck and paxton in Wong's corner, then you should count Crawford in McGuire's. (I'd put Wink, too, but he has not started.)

[moonslav59]

My guess is that right now the starters prefer Wong. In the last 5 games Wong caught Bello, Paxton, Sale, and Houck--and McGuire caught Kluber.

 

No doubt, and it's totally understandable. I'm not arguing otherwise.

 

Maybe even Kluber would like to try Wong a few more times. (BTW, he has improved a lot on his ERA with McGuire, after that rocky start to the season.)

 

If Crawford or Wink were asked to start, who would they choose?

[mvp 78]

No doubt, and it's totally understandable. I'm not arguing otherwise.

 

Maybe even Kluber would like to try Wong a few more times. (BTW, he has improved a lot on his ERA with McGuire, after that rocky start to the season.)

 

If Crawford or Wink were asked to start, who would they choose?

 

Kluber has had one good start with Wong and one good start with McGuire. I'm not hanging his faults on anyone but himself.

[Maxbialystock]

Kluber has had one good start with Wong and one good start with McGuire. I'm not hanging his faults on anyone but himself.

 

Mostly agree if only because the Sox can't get by with one freaking catcher. We need two, and McGuire, while he might not be as good as Wong seems to be, should be good enough.

 

In the movie Twelve O'Clock High the commander of the 918th, played by Gregory Peck, creates a special bomber crew called the "Leper Colony." It's where he puts the pilot he likes least (an LTC played by Hugh Marlowe) and the crew members who have screwed up on other planes. By the end of the movie, the Leper Colony proves their mettle, and I think that's Cora's intent with putting Kepler and McGuire together.

[mvp 78]

Mostly agree if only because the Sox can't get by with one freaking catcher. We need two, and McGuire, while he might not be as good as Wong seems to be, should be good enough.

 

In the movie Twelve O'Clock High the commander of the 918th, played by Gregory Peck, creates a special bomber crew called the "Leper Colony." It's where he puts the pilot he likes least (an LTC played by Hugh Marlowe) and the crew members who have screwed up on other planes. By the end of the movie, the Leper Colony proves their mettle, and I think that's Cora's intent with putting Kepler and McGuire together.

 

I think McGuire is good enough. Wong has been really great. McGuire is just the backup right now. The starters have flat out sucked. McGuire has done rather well with the bullpen. Seems like it's a pitching issue and not a catching one?

[moonslav59]

Kluber has had one good start with Wong and one good start with McGuire. I'm not hanging his faults on anyone but himself.

 

I don't think Kluber should count in the discussion, because of this and the 8 to 1 split.

 

Houck, Whitlock, Paxton and Crawford have only started with Wong, and Houck/Whitlock have sucked compared to 2021-2022, so how can they count in Wong's favor?

 

That leaves Pivetta (not a big differential), Bello (only 6 GS) and Sale (who has only been caught by Wong since his adjustment period.)

 

It's too nuanced to draw any major conclusions, and CERA is often that way, especially with small or unbalanced sample sizes- sometimes both.

 

The major changes from 2022-2023:

 

Whitlock and Houck- major declines (only caught by Wong)

 

Crawford and Wink- major improvement (much better with mcGuire)

 

To me, this pretty much muddles the picture on Wong being clearly better.

[Dipre]

Kluber's statcast metrics are a horror show and he should be excluded from any conversation about cEra, that we all know is kind of a weak stat anyway.

[notin]

Mostly agree if only because the Sox can't get by with one freaking catcher. We need two, and McGuire, while he might not be as good as Wong seems to be, should be good enough.

 

In the movie Twelve O'Clock High the commander of the 918th, played by Gregory Peck, creates a special bomber crew called the "Leper Colony." It's where he puts the pilot he likes least (an LTC played by Hugh Marlowe) and the crew members who have screwed up on other planes. By the end of the movie, the Leper Colony proves their mettle, and I think that's Cora's intent with putting Kepler and McGuire together.

 

 

I think he’s just running Kluber out there every fifth day and hoping the guy can recapture just an iota of his two Cy Young awards, but realizes his 88mph “fast” ball and lack of command is 100% independent of whoever is squatting behind the dish…

[mvp 78]

Kluber's statcast metrics are a horror show and he should be excluded from any conversation about cEra, that we all know is kind of a weak stat anyway.

 

But he has a 71st percentile for FB spin rate!!!

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think Kluber should count in the discussion, because of this and the 8 to 1 split.

 

Houck, Whitlock, Paxton and Crawford have only started with Wong, and Houck/Whitlock have sucked compared to 2021-2022, so how can they count in Wong's favor?

 

That leaves Pivetta (not a big differential), Bello (only 6 GS) and Sale (who has only been caught by Wong since his adjustment period.)

 

The differential with Pivetta isn't big? 1.58 runs and .114 OPS isn't big?

 

As for Sale, the fact they switched him from McGuire to Wong says a lot.

 

Doesn't it seem like they're trying desperately to find someone to match up with McGuire and they can't find one?

 

Maybe if Crawford goes back into the rotation McGuire can catch him.

[moonslav59]

I think he’s just running Kluber out there every fifth day and hoping the guy can recapture just an iota of his two Cy Young awards, but realizes his 88mph “fast” ball and lack of command is 100% independent of whoever is squatting behind the dish…

 

I think Bloom expected numbers near 2021-2022:

4.17 ERA

3.66 FIP

1.25 WHIP

4.1 K/BB

 

If he was at 4.60 or 4.70, we might not even be talking about him.

[moonslav59]

The differential with Pivetta isn't big? 1.58 runs and .114 OPS isn't big?

 

As for Sale, the fact they switched him from McGuire to Wong says a lot.

 

Doesn't it seem like they're trying desperately to find someone to match up with McGuire and they can't find one?

 

Maybe if Crawford goes back into the rotation McGuire can catch him.

 

Okay, right on the Pivetta differential is big, but it's not like 5.17 is something to brag about with Wong. He's worse with both compared to 2021-2022.

 

On Sale, you don't think he'd have been rusty with Wong over the first few starts, and YES, I do think switching says something big. I've never argued Cora, Bloom or pitchers prefer McGuire or think he's better. He hasn't been better.

 

No, it doesn't sound like I'm desperately searching. You said all starters and Crawford sucked with Wong. He was as many starts as Paxton and just 1/3 those of Bello.

 

My only beef was with the deceptive phrase you used to compare Wong and McGuire, when many comps can't be counted due to no sample sizes for one half the comp, and a few others are so lop-sided, they should not count. (If they do, then so should Crawford and even Wink.)

 

To me, the record is 3-2 in Wong's favor and some of the Wong wins need context.

 

Honestly, do you think sale would suck, now had McGuire stayed catching him? Kluber would be much better had Wong caught him?

 

It's hard to imagine a further decline from Houck and Whitlock from 2021--2022 than they've had with Wong, but I suppose they could have been even worse.

 

My point is there is too much nuance to tell much, at this point, but yes, Wong has a better CERA and catches only the good pitchers.

[Nick]

My Updated Core Group for Pitchers

 

SP Sale (2+1)

SP Bello (6)

SP Whitlock (4+2)

SP Houck (5)

RP Crawford (6)

RP Winckowski (6)

RP Schreiber (4)

 

It's unlikely that we can acquire a team controlled up and coming starter in July.

 

This is a group we can win with. Maybe not this year but in 2024 and thereafter.

Edited May 23, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

My Updated Core Group for Pitchers

 

SP Sale (2+1)

SP Bello (6)

SP Whitlock (4+2)

SP Houck (5)

RP Crawford (6)

RP Winckowski (6)

RP Schreiber (4)

 

It's unlikely that we can acquire a team controlled up and coming starter in July.

 

This is a group we can win with. Maybe not this year but in 2024 and thereafter.

 

It looks to be one of the better foundations in a while.

 

SP has the ETAs of these kids:

 

2023: Mata

 

2024: Drohan, Walter, L Guerrero, R Fernandez

 

2025: Wikelman

 

2026: Perales, E R-C

 

??? Denlinger, Rogers, Dean, Paez, Encarnacion, Liu...

Edited May 23, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

The differential with Pivetta isn't big? 1.58 runs and .114 OPS isn't big?

 

As for Sale, the fact they switched him from McGuire to Wong says a lot.

 

Doesn't it seem like they're trying desperately to find someone to match up with McGuire and they can't find one?

 

Maybe if Crawford goes back into the rotation McGuire can catch him.

 

The reduced workload has more to do with McGuire not being able to throw runners out and his hand injury than how he handles the staff.

[mvp 78]

It looks to be one of the better foundations in a while.

 

SP has the ETAs of these kids:

 

2023: Mata

 

2024: Drohan, Walter, L Guerrero, R Fernandez

 

2025: Wikelman

 

2026: Perales, E R-C

 

??? Denlinger, Rogers, Dean, Paez, Encarnacion, Liu...

 

I don’t know what Mata can do for the Sox this year. Probabaly sent straight to the WOO pen after coming off the IL. It has not been a good season for him.

[Bellhorn04]

The reduced workload has more to do with McGuire not being able to throw runners out and his hand injury than how he handles the staff.

 

How long has the hand injury been affecting him?

[moonslav59]

I don’t know what Mata can do for the Sox this year. Probabaly sent straight to the WOO pen after coming off the IL. It has not been a good season for him.

 

In February, I was hopeful one from Mata, Walter or Murphy could give us a mid season boost- not anymore.

 

I'm not sure any will ever step foot on a MLB field. I have more hope in the farther away pitchers.

 

I'm impressed by our young class in the bigs, right now- more so than I have since the Lester days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Nick]

In February, I was hopeful one from Mata, Walter or Murphy could give us a mid season boost- not anymore.

 

I'm not sure any will ever step foot on a MLB field. I have more hope in the farther away pitchers.

 

I'm impressed by our young class in the bigs, right now- more so than I have since the Lester days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not sure what's up with Walter. Last year in AA, he walked 3, yes count it, 3 batters in 50 innings. Unreal. (he did hit 5 batters)

 

This year in AAA, he's walked 18 batters in 38 innings. What's up?

[Nick]

It looks to be one of the better foundations in a while.

 

SP has the ETAs of these kids:

 

2023: Mata

 

2024: Drohan, Walter, L Guerrero, R Fernandez

 

2025: Wikelman

 

2026: Perales, E R-C

 

??? Denlinger, Rogers, Dean, Paez, Encarnacion, Liu...

 

And it looks like we have a starting catcher for our pitching staff in Wong, 6 years of team control starting this year.

[cp176]

Mata is somewhat of a disappointment at this point in time for all of us who want to see these young guys step up and get it done. He has a really live arm. Hope he figures it out - for his sake and for ours.

[Nick]

I'm happy with our core group.

 

I'm willing to give a longer leash for some (Casas).

 

But at the end of the day, what they do on the field matters.

 

Casas at the plate was atrocious last night.

 

I see Valdez go up to the plate and he has one mission, swing and connect with the ball.

 

Casas seems he's fighting with umpires on boarder line calls. He counts as a win when he thinks the ump makes the right call and as a loss when the ump makes a bad ball/strike calls. Does he know that he's playing a premium offensive position? Just go up and make contacts. At times, I feel like I'm watching Dalbec at the plate. It was very frustrating last night.

[moonslav59]

Mata is somewhat of a disappointment at this point in time for all of us who want to see these young guys step up and get it done. He has a really live arm. Hope he figures it out - for his sake and for ours.

 

Maybe he settles into a key RP'er role.

[moonslav59]

I'm happy with our core group.

 

I'm willing to give a longer leash for some (Casas).

 

But at the end of the day, what they do on the field matters.

 

Casas at the plate was atrocious last night.

 

I see Valdez go up to the plate and he has one mission, swing and connect with the ball.

 

Casas seems he's fighting with umpires on boarder line calls. He counts as a win when he thinks the ump makes the right call and as a loss when the ump makes a bad ball/strike calls. Does he know that he's playing a premium offensive position? Just go up and make contacts. At times, I feel like I'm watching Dalbec at the plate. It was very frustrating last night.

 

In the long run, Casas seems to be improving on O.

[Dipre]

Casas will be a beast, but we have to be patient. His approach at the plate is bound to be exploited by MLB pitchers until he can find a balance between being patient and attacking pitches in the zone.

[cp176]

Maybe he settles into a key RP'er role.

 

Maybe -

[cp176]

I'm happy with our core group.

 

I'm willing to give a longer leash for some (Casas).

 

But at the end of the day, what they do on the field matters.

 

Casas at the plate was atrocious last night.

 

I see Valdez go up to the plate and he has one mission, swing and connect with the ball.

 

Casas seems he's fighting with umpires on boarder line calls. He counts as a win when he thinks the ump makes the right call and as a loss when the ump makes a bad ball/strike calls. Does he know that he's playing a premium offensive position? Just go up and make contacts. At times, I feel like I'm watching Dalbec at the plate. It was very frustrating last night.

 

I think that we have our second baseman . Valdez is just fine out there. Valdez's defense has been criticized on here much like Devers was a few years ago. i don't see it. I say leave him out there and let him get better and better.