A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

Bogey comes into the series hitting .214/.340/.333 over the last month and .254 with a .712 OPS since April 6th. This season he's had a huge drop in out of zone swing% which has him walking at a career best 12%

 

You can increase the sample size a bit more and see that he really had a hot first week and then really hasn't done much since.

 

SLG, ISO, Brl, Hard Hit are all down from '21 and prior. The concerns of a drop in power we saw last year have carried forward.

 

I think he will end up doing well on the season, but signing 30+ year olds always begs the question: at what point do they begin to drop off, and the follow-up: and how much of a drop off will it be?

[mvp 78]

He also, literally "wrote the book" on the "Ray's Way."

 

To me, this just means he was a note taker. It doesn't mean he was the guy who came up with the idea. He clearly hasn't put it into practice here. He hasn't brought any Rays guys over.

[moonslav59]

To me, this just means he was a note taker. It doesn't mean he was the guy who came up with the idea. He clearly hasn't put it into practice here. He hasn't brought any Rays guys over.

 

That part has surprised me about not bringing in Rays guys.

 

I'm not so sure it is "clear" he hasn't put some things into practice. How well would most GMs have done given the budget constraints placed on Bloom until March 2022?

 

Did we really expect much better for the money than Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Kike I, Renfroe, Whitlock, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Arroyo, Wink, Dugo, Wong and others?

 

I might have expected a few more Whitlocks and few less Marwins and Diekmans, but he has not been way off on signings. (BTW, the rays Way is not really based on nailing FA signings, anyway.)

 

It's about building a deep 40 man roster and farm. In that area, the jury is still out, IMO, especially since most of his draft picks have been high school players.

 

Did he and "his guys" have an impact on Bello, Wink, Crawford and maybe Drohan?

 

We don't know and can't know, yet on many.

[Maxbialystock]

To me, this just means he was a note taker. It doesn't mean he was the guy who came up with the idea. He clearly hasn't put it into practice here. He hasn't brought any Rays guys over.

 

Go read the article in wikipedia, which is by no means the gospel on anything. But they do give Bloom credit as a lot more than a note taker.

 

I'm defending him, yes, because I think JH likes what he did at Tampa. However, I also recognize that in his current position he also needs to be good at trades, making deals, and signing good talent, some of it expensive. He definitely did that with Story and Yoshida. And the $16M for Jansen ain't chump change.

 

You cannot be the VP/honcho of baseball operations for the Sox and not be involved in and capable of making big deals.

 

On the other hand, the Sox track record on developing pitchers, who are half of the freaking roster, is abysmal. The wikipedia article says Bloom was especially good at finding and developing pitching talent. My guess is that the Sox stopped doing that after Babe Ruth went to the Yankees.

[Maxbialystock]

That part has surprised me about not bringing in Rays guys.

 

I'm not so sure it is "clear" he hasn't put some things into practice. How well would most GMs have done given the budget constraints placed on Bloom until March 2022?

 

Did we really expect much better for the money than Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Kike I, Renfroe, Whitlock, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Arroyo, Wink, Dugo, Wong and others?

 

I might have expected a few more Whitlocks and few less Marwins and Diekmans, but he has not been way off on signings. (BTW, the rays Way is not really based on nailing FA signings, anyway.)

 

It's about building a deep 40 man roster and farm. In that area, the jury is still out, IMO, especially since most of his draft picks have been high school players.

 

Did he and "his guys" have an impact on Bello, Wink, Crawford and maybe Drohan?

 

We don't know and can't know, yet on many.

 

You keep talking about that 40 man roster, and I think you're right.

[Old Red]

To me, this just means he was a note taker. It doesn't mean he was the guy who came up with the idea. He clearly hasn't put it into practice here. He hasn't brought any Rays guys over.

 

Like I’ve said many times that Bloom was just one of the geeks in the nerd room, and not the man out in front like he is now.

[Maxbialystock]

Like I’ve said many times that Bloom was just one of the geeks in the nerd room, and not the man out in front like he is now.

 

The "geeks in the nerd room" are the ones who built a system that currently enables the Rays to have the best record in MLB--granted, less than 1/3 into this season--and the 3d lowest payroll. Last year they were 86-76, in 2021 100-62, in 2019 96-66, in 2018 90-72. And so on.

 

I do not disagree that the "man out in front" is the one making the big deals (and small ones). I have already said Bloom hadn't done that in Tampa and needs to be able to for the Red Sox, who do have the wherewithal to acquire talent as well as develop it.

 

So Bloom might not be a good fit because the David Dombrowski Way sure worked for the 2018 team, maybe the best Sox team ever.

 

However, as moonslav has pointed out (and I have repeated), the Sox have been lousy at developing pitching talent going back to at least 1999 and probably much further back. That's what Bloom was good at when he was with the Rays.

[moonslav59]

You keep talking about that 40 man roster, and I think you're right.

 

It's nearly impossible to win a ring with a weak 25-40 on the 40. We had a weak 18-40 in 2020. Plus, beyond the 40 showed very little promise, although some of DD's kids have come through, perhaps with some help from the system headed by Bloom after 2019.

 

It took a while to build it up, and there were plenty of failures and missed boats- some just seemed to be a timing issue (Springs and Perez.)

 

Now, many of our 25-40 guys are coming through with flying colors (Duran, Vadlez, Reyes, Wong/McGuire, Wink, Crawford, Bello and others.

 

We still have some gaping holes, as do all other teams, except maybe TBR, and that's on Bloom. He had the money, last winter, and he made this bed.

Edited May 19, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

The "geeks in the nerd room" are the ones who built a system that currently enables the Rays to have the best record in MLB--granted, less than 1/3 into this season--and the 3d lowest payroll. Last year they were 86-76, in 2021 100-62, in 2019 96-66, in 2018 90-72. And so on.

 

I do not disagree that the "man out in front" is the one making the big deals (and small ones). I have already said Bloom hadn't done that in Tampa and needs to be able to for the Red Sox, who do have the wherewithal to acquire talent as well as develop it.

 

So Bloom might not be a good fit because the David Dombrowski Way sure worked for the 2018 team, maybe the best Sox team ever.

 

However, as moonslav has pointed out (and I have repeated), the Sox have been lousy at developing pitching talent going back to at least 1999 and probably much further back. That's what Bloom was good at when he was with the Rays.

 

Bloom had help developing in TB, too. I'm not sure he has brought in any fresh faces in the scouting & development areas, and just how much does he do in this area, other than hire and direct those that do the legwork?

 

I'm not saying changes are not being made. I'm hopeful on some of our younger pitchers- more so than I have been in a while.

 

Plus, it's not just about developing: it's about spotting young pitchers to be drafted, signed as IFAs or in other ways.

 

Bloom has not draft pitchers, highly, but Drohan just passed all the DD pitchers still in the farm.

Bloom has signed some promising IFA pitchers, but none have yet to rise to the top of the rankings.

 

He did spot Whitlock on the Rule 5 list.

He did trade for Wink.

He did not trade away Houck, Crawford or Bello. (I'm not sure how much, if any, he had to do with their development.)

There are some long shots like de la Rosa and Gambrell. Maybe E R-C or Guerrero come through. (They are moving up the rankings.)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I've never been too concerned about high K's unless the guy sucks.

 

 

 

I know, we've both said our opposite views here before on all-or-nothing hitting.

 

The reason I brought it up is because there has already been some coverage of improved offenses in Boston and other cities for the simple explanation of line-ups making better contact. Certainly, lefty pull hitters have benefitted from the no-shift, but there is also more emphasis on the Sox, and talk on MLB network, for example, of more batters using the entire diamond, going with pitches more, opposite field, gap-to-gap.

 

The Red Sox hitters look different this year, including guys with different approaches that were already here, like Verdugo and Duran. More hits = more baserunners = more runs; but it's also about hitting behind runners and moving runners. It makes for better entertainment.

[Nick]

It will be interesting to see what Bloom does with Verdugo.

 

I am not advocating a trade.

 

Verdugo waited until his 5th year to blossom.

 

Easiest thing for Bloom to do is to open up the wallett and sign him to a long term contract.

 

But is there a better option? Can Bloom trade him when his trade value is the highest?

 

Does Bloom have a confidence in his system to produce a replacement in 24?

 

Can that player be Abreau? Can Abreau give the Sox pretty close to what Verdugo has so far in 2023?

 

So you replace a guy projected to earn $10M+ in 2024 with a minimum wage guy with 6 years of team control.

 

That's how Bloom will earn his money. Msking smart moves in order to allocate the savings to other areas.

Edited May 19, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

We did not replace Xander's production at short per se. But say in tandem with the center field position, I bet the production year over year is pretty close.

 

I am very anxious to see Mondesi take the field. From all the reports including one from Cora, Mondesi is an elite athlete.

 

A guy like him can return in 2024 n the cheap and allow us to again allocate money elsewhere.

 

Valdez, Arroyo, Chang along with the return of Story gives us much option.

 

Yorke and Mayer should be getting close to the majors by 2025.

[moonslav59]

I know, we've both said our opposite views here before on all-or-nothing hitting.

 

The reason I brought it up is because there has already been some coverage of improved offenses in Boston and other cities for the simple explanation of line-ups making better contact. Certainly, lefty pull hitters have benefitted from the no-shift, but there is also more emphasis on the Sox, and talk on MLB network, for example, of more batters using the entire diamond, going with pitches more, opposite field, gap-to-gap.

 

The Red Sox hitters look different this year, including guys with different approaches that were already here, like Verdugo and Duran. More hits = more baserunners = more runs; but it's also about hitting behind runners and moving runners. It makes for better entertainment.

 

Agreed. I do think watching Story hit and field will be better than watching Arroyo, Chang, Kike and Valdez in the middle IF.

[moonslav59]

It will be interesting to see what Bloom does with Verdugo.

 

I am not advocating a trade.

 

Verdugo waited until his 5th year to blossom.

 

Easiest thing for Bloom to do is to open up the wallett and sign him to a long term contract.

 

But is there a better option? Can Bloom trade him when his trade value is the highest?

 

Does Bloom have a confidence in his system to produce a replacement in 24?

 

Can that player be Abreau? Can Abreau give the Sox pretty close to what Verdugo has so far in 2023?

 

So you replace a guy projected to earn $10M+ in 2024 with a minimum wage guy with 6 years of team control.

 

That's how Bloom will earn his money. Msking smart moves in order to allocate the savings to other areas.

 

His .768 OPS prior to this season was a disappointment but not terrible.

 

I doubt we trade him. I'm not sure we extend him, either, so who knows?

 

We do not have OF depth, and won't next year, either. Blies and Anthony are too far away, and Abreu is unknown.

[moonslav59]

We did not replace Xander's production at short per se. But say in tandem with the center field position, I bet the production year over year is pretty close.

 

I am very anxious to see Mondesi take the field. From all the reports including one from Cora, Mondesi is an elite athlete.

 

A guy like him can return in 2024 n the cheap and allow us to again allocate money elsewhere.

 

Valdez, Arroyo, Chang along with the return of Story gives us much option.

 

Yorke and Mayer should be getting close to the majors by 2025.

 

I think the main replacement for Bogey was more Yoshida than Duvall (Duran.) I think Bloom counted on upticks in LF, CF, RF and 1B that would more than offset the loss of Bogey's offense. Break even at DH (Turner/JD) and Catcher (McGWong/ Vazwecki)

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have signed outfielder Bradley Zimmer to a minor league deal.

[moonslav59]

HOU has now moved into a WC slot, and I fear they will not be dislodged, despite their pitching injuries. They may end up passing Texas for the division lead, but we'd have to pass them, instead, unless we can pass 2 ALE teams.

 

We are now tied with TOR at 1/4 game out, but it could come down to needing to pass NYY or HOU/TEX.

 

The last place ALE team cannot make the playoffs.

[Nick]

I think a poster objected to the use of Winckowski for 3 innings last night but disagree with the poster.

 

The game was still too close in my mind to replace Winckowski when he was throwing well.

 

We have everyone available for next 5 games (other than Winckowski) including 'new' arrivals Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta. We have another off day before traveling to Arizona thereafter.

 

I believe our pen is well rested and probably in the best shape. With the return of Whitlock (I'm guessing our next homestand vs Cincy), the bullpen will get another boost with a quality arm off the starting rotation. Schreiber should be returning at some point also.

 

It's night and day compared to last year's bullpen.

[Nick]

Tonight is another big game for Chris Sale. I'm calling it his final exam. If he can come close to his last outing, then I think it's safe to say that he's back!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think a poster objected to the use of Winckowski for 3 innings last night but disagree with the poster.

 

The game was still too close in my mind to replace Winckowski when he was throwing well.

We have everyone available for next 5 games (other than Winckowski) including 'new' arrivals Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta. We have another off day before traveling to Arizona thereafter.

 

I believe our pen is well rested and probably in the best shape. With the return of Whitlock (I'm guessing our next homestand vs Cincy), the bullpen will get another boost with a quality arm off the starting rotation. Schreiber should be returning at some point also.

 

It's night and day compared to last year's bullpen.

 

I approve of this post. How many times have we've seen bad endings in the age of relief specialists; a team yanks a pitcher who is obviously lights out for a new guy... who just... doesn't... have it.

[Old Red]

I approve of this post. How many times have we've seen bad endings in the age of relief specialists; a team yanks a pitcher who is obviously lights out for a new guy... who just... doesn't... have it.

 

It was the right call to let Wink go the 3 innings last night. Jansen hasn’t pitched in a week now, so it’s time to put him back up in the saddle, and give him some work.

[moonslav59]

I think a poster objected to the use of Winckowski for 3 innings last night but disagree with the poster.

 

The game was still too close in my mind to replace Winckowski when he was throwing well.

 

We have everyone available for next 5 games (other than Winckowski) including 'new' arrivals Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta. We have another off day before traveling to Arizona thereafter.

 

I believe our pen is well rested and probably in the best shape. With the return of Whitlock (I'm guessing our next homestand vs Cincy), the bullpen will get another boost with a quality arm off the starting rotation. Schreiber should be returning at some point also.

 

It's night and day compared to last year's bullpen.

 

Yes, and the return of Crawford, who pitched last on May 3rd, could also be a big boost to an already nice situation.

 

This is where the depth of the 40 is paying off.

[moonslav59]

Tonight is another big game for Chris Sale. I'm calling it his final exam. If he can come close to his last outing, then I think it's safe to say that he's back!

 

It would be nice to see a complete gem thrown by Sale, and I'm pretty much onboard with the idea that he is back. If he could come very close to what he used to be, my current optimism on our team's chances would sky-rocket.

[moonslav59]

OPS+ Leaders with 100+ PAs

 

164 Duran

134 Yoshida

134 Verdugo

128 Devers

115 Turner

 

Under 100 PAs

304 Duvall

110 Refsnyder

110 EValdez

 

The worst (100+):

74 Kike

86 Casas

87 Wong

 

Under 100

35 Chang

38 Dalbec

78 Arroyo

81 Tapia

81 McGuire

 

 

[moonslav59]

Red Sox- Yankees make rare trade:

 

New York officially announced the acquisition of Greg Allen in exchange for minor league right-hander Diego Hernandez and cash. Hernandez, an 18-year-old native of Mexico, signed with New York as an undrafted free agent last year. He spent 2022 in the Dominican Summer League, starting five of 12 games.

-MLBTR

 

Allen was 23 for 23 in SB attempts

[Maxbialystock]

I think a poster objected to the use of Winckowski for 3 innings last night but disagree with the poster.

 

The game was still too close in my mind to replace Winckowski when he was throwing well.

 

We have everyone available for next 5 games (other than Winckowski) including 'new' arrivals Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta. We have another off day before traveling to Arizona thereafter.

 

I believe our pen is well rested and probably in the best shape. With the return of Whitlock (I'm guessing our next homestand vs Cincy), the bullpen will get another boost with a quality arm off the starting rotation. Schreiber should be returning at some point also.

 

It's night and day compared to last year's bullpen.

 

Could not agree more. Winck was pitching well and able to go 3 innings in relief--so use him to seal the deal on a great start by Paxton. Crawford is back and last pitched Tuesday, and he too can pitch 2 or more innings in relief.

[Maxbialystock]

It would be nice to see a complete gem thrown by Sale, and I'm pretty much onboard with the idea that he is back. If he could come very close to what he used to be, my current optimism on our team's chances would sky-rocket.

 

Sale is back, period. The issue might still be his durability, even with the new elbow. What makes me optimistic is something you've already mentioned. The Sox right now seem to have three pretty good starters in Sale, Paxton, and Bello (who has good stuff but not yet good command). Plus the bullpen. Plus some choices for the other two starter jobs: Houck, Kluber, Crawford, Whitlock, and even Pivetta.

 

We'll see what happens--as always--but right now I'm impressed with the depth of the Sox pitching.

[moonslav59]

Sale is back, period. The issue might still be his durability, even with the new elbow. What makes me optimistic is something you've already mentioned. The Sox right now seem to have three pretty good starters in Sale, Paxton, and Bello (who has good stuff but not yet good command). Plus the bullpen. Plus some choices for the other two starter jobs: Houck, Kluber, Crawford, Whitlock, and even Pivetta.

 

We'll see what happens--as always--but right now I'm impressed with the depth of the Sox pitching.

 

Agreed. I'm now looking to the chance Sale can reach or come very close to his old self.

 

He does not need to get all the way back to still be great, but I am now entertaining that thought.

[moonslav59]

Some surprising names atop the Sox OPS Against list:

 

100+ PAs Against

.567 Winckowski

.629 Crawford

.700 Houck

.751 Sale

.838 Bello

.875 Kluber

.885 Pivetta

 

40-99 PAs

.604 Martin

.639 Paxton

.679 Schreiber

.760 Jansen

.773 Bernardino

.826 Bleier

.944 Whitlock

[moonslav59]

When Mondesi, a switch hitter, returns, could we ever see an all lefty line-up?

 

1. Verdugo RF

2. Devers 3B

3. Yoshida DH

4. Casas 1B

5. Duran CF

6. Valdez 2B

7. Mondesi SS

8. Tapia LF

9. McGuire C

 

The most RHBs I could come up with would involve roster moves and the return of Duvall & Story:

 

1. Kike CF

2. Turner 1B

3. Story 2B

4. Duvall LF

5. Refsnyder RF

6. Reyes DH

7. Mondesi/Chang SS

8. Dalbec 1B

9. Wong C