Story has surgery

[notin]

When exactly did Story choose rest and rehab?

 

When was surgery recommended? Did it happen before last week?

[moonslav59]

When was surgery recommended? Did it happen before last week?

 

My guess is some doctor, at some point, might have said, "You may need surgery, one day."

 

I guess there is a chance one or more doctors might have said, "I recommend surgery, now," but also offered other plausible options.

 

I doubt a doctor said, "You need surgery, now," (before last week, anyway) and Story and the team decided to go against the recommendation. Maybe a second opinion said rest and rehab had a good chance of working.

 

We seem to be going around in circles- caught up in a swirl of what ifs and speculations.

[Bellhorn04]

All I can really say is that the Story signing and the Sale extension were very similar moves. Red flags did exist, we thought the red flags were an acceptable risk, and we were wrong.

[moonslav59]

All I can really say is that the Story signing and the Sale extension were very similar moves. Red flags did exist, we thought the red flags were an acceptable risk, and we were wrong.

 

Agreed. Red Flags existed with the 4 year Nate extension, too, but to a large extent, he earned his $68M/4.

 

I don't think there were any red flags on Price, other than his age, and that signing was "wrong," too, although one could argue he helped us win a ring. One could also argue, we could have won without him, especially if we spent his $31M x 7 wisely.

 

HRam and Pablo? HRam had health issues prior to the signing, and Pablo had weight issues to worry about.

 

The Porcello 4 year extension had no red flags, and he remained healthy all 4 years. All 4 years were within prime (ages 27-30,) and he did great one year, okay another and not so good inn 2 others, except to give 30+ GS'd and 175+ IP, every year.

 

It's hard to determine whether our high risk signings did any worse than those with no or few red flags, at the time of the signings.

 

All longer term signings are risky. Of course, the Sale and Story signings had known risks, up front, but I think those risks were factored into the contract total amount given to Sale, Stroy, Nate and HRam. Age is also a factor in many signings.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

All I can really say is that the Story signing and the Sale extension were very similar moves. Red flags did exist, we thought the red flags were an acceptable risk, and we were wrong.

 

And we didn't even sign them.

 

GMs may be ultimately responsible, but since there were two different guys in charge with the same ghastly results, it's all blatant organizational failure.

[notin]

My guess is some doctor, at some point, might have said, "You may need surgery, one day."

 

I guess there is a chance one or more doctors might have said, "I recommend surgery, now," but also offered other plausible options.

 

I doubt a doctor said, "You need surgery, now," (before last week, anyway) and Story and the team decided to go against the recommendation. Maybe a second opinion said rest and rehab had a good chance of working.

 

We seem to be going around in circles- caught up in a swirl of what ifs and speculations.

 

Even that’s just supposition. The doctor may have initially said “this will never require surgery.”

 

Although the second opinion offered up by Dr. Biggio and Dr. Bagwell apparently conflicted with this diagnosis. The problem is the Sox apparently decided to eschew getting a tie-breaking medical opinion from Dr. Jeter and Dr. Rivera…

[moonslav59]

Even that’s just supposition. The doctor may have initially said “this will never require surgery.”

 

Although the second opinion offered up by Dr. Biggio and Dr. Bagwell apparently conflicted with this diagnosis. The problem is the Sox apparently decided to eschew getting a tie-breaking medical opinion from Dr. Jeter and Dr. Rivera…

 

Doctors rarely say "never" or "definitely" anything.

 

Most likely, they told Story and the Sox management that he might need surgery, one day, but that rest and rehab should work. It's not like rest and rehab never work, especially for non pitchers.

 

Maybe the risk of surgery and lost time was a factor in our $140M/6 offer. Maybe it would have been $165M/6 had the docs said there is zero added risk due to any pre-existing conditions. I kinda thought $140M/6 was on the low side, but I was unaware of the lingering arm issue, until after the signing.

 

$325M/10 Seager

$175M/7 Semien (We were linked to his name, last winter)

$140M/6 Baez

$105M/3 Correa w opt out

 

I liked Baez, especially his defense, but he had a much shorter history of good offense than Story and had these career numbers before signing (162 game avg):

 

.265 28 87 (179 Ks in 612 PAs)

.307 OBP

.477 SLG

.783 OPS

 

Story

.272 34 98 (188 Ks in 681 PAs- a slightly lower K% than Baez.)

.340 OBP

.523 SLG

.863 OPS

 

Defense

3.5 Baez UZR/150 and 49 DRS in 3650 innings (better rate)

2.8 Story UZR/150 and 69 DRS in 6300 innings

 

 

[notin]

Doctors rarely say "never" or "definitely" anything.

 

Most likely, they told Story and the Sox management that he might need surgery, one day, but that rest and rehab should work. It's not like rest and rehab never work, especially for non pitchers.

 

Maybe the risk of surgery and lost time was a factor in our $140M/6 offer. Maybe it would have been $165M/6 had the docs said there is zero added risk due to any pre-existing conditions. I kinda thought $140M/6 was on the low side, but I was unaware of the lingering arm issue, until after the signing.

 

$325M/10 Seager

$175M/7 Semien (We were linked to his name, last winter)

$140M/6 Baez

$105M/3 Correa w opt out

 

I liked Baez, especially his defense, but he had a much shorter history of good offense than Story and had these career numbers before signing (162 game avg):

 

.265 28 87 (179 Ks in 612 PAs)

.307 OBP

.477 SLG

.783 OPS

 

Story

.272 34 98 (188 Ks in 681 PAs- a slightly lower K% than Baez.)

.340 OBP

.523 SLG

.863 OPS

 

Defense

3.5 Baez UZR/150 and 49 DRS in 3650 innings (better rate)

2.8 Story UZR/150 and 69 DRS in 6300 innings

 

 

 

I know.

 

But the notion that they cleared him to play in 2022 and after the season, he got injured so therefore the medical opinion was wrong seems a little too hasty. Did he even do anything to aggravate his flexor strain all year? Is the bracing surgery even on the same tendon? (Is it? I’d assume it was but I don’t know for sure.)

 

I never wanted Story, whom I felt was too much of a Coors product and, once you get him out of the mountains, would morph into Paul DeJong. The only thing I liked was the temporary death of Tampa North

[moonslav59]

I know.

 

But the notion that they cleared him to play in 2022 and after the season, he got injured so therefore the medical opinion was wrong seems a little too hasty. Did he even do anything to aggravate his flexor strain all year? Is the bracing surgery even on the same tendon? (Is it? I’d assume it was but I don’t know for sure.)

 

I agree. The narrative over this seems contrived and misdirected, but that's not surprising.

 

We don't know what the medical reports said, and we can assume many different things. I'm pretty sure the reports did not say he would need surgery or was at a major risk of needing it, shortly. If that was true, it would mean they felt he was worth something like $140M/5 not $140M/6.

 

You are right, he went the end of last season and the whole 2022 season without any signs of elbow issues or discomfort. Maybe he's the only one who knows about the term discomfort, if he never told anyone he had it.

 

Again, it always seems to come down to the "blame game." We have this incessant need to assign blame when anything goes wrong, and finding one guy to blame makes everything much neater and provides some sort of closure or whatever.

 

I'm not saying I never assign blame, or that finding out who was responsible for something going wrong isn't a necessary step towards making sure the problem is not repeated, again, but really, in this case, who is to blame and why?

 

Maybe 99% of doctors would have given the same report Bloom & Co. got. B ecause Story got hurt, were the doctors wrong? To me, it's no so black and white.

 

Maybe most GM would read what ever report Bloom was handed and would decide not to sign Story based on his injury risk. Maybe not signing him had more to do with the money sought or as you pointed out, the Coors factor and the unknowns on how his skills would transfer to another home park. Was Bloom's mistake not to heed the injury risks pointed out by the docs or the money, years and Coors factor, or the fact that we already had a SS and were trying to keep him happy and wanting to stay in Boston? Did Bloom even have the final say? Was Bloom trying to convince JH to sign or not sign Story or vice versa?

 

Before I assign blame or majority blame, I'd need to know a lot more than I know, now, and I may never know what needs to be know to assign final blame percentages. (My guess is my assignment of blame would likely differ from others, even if we had all the facts.)

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

I never wanted Story, whom I felt was too much of a Coors product and, once you get him out of the mountains, would morph into Paul DeJong. The only thing I liked was the temporary death of Tampa North

 

Story vs Bogey

 

Bogey:

.872 Home

.758 Away

 

Story:

.958 Home

.739 Away

 

While the differential is stunning for Story, his away OPS was not very different from Bogey's. Many of Story's away PAs were in pitcher's parks like LAD, SDP and SFG.

 

.658 in SF (200 PAs)

.981 in AZ (199)

.691 in SD (188)

.770 in LA (151)

 

Those were the 4 largest sample sizes outside of Coors. The next largest was 70 in CHI Cubs' park.

 

Maybe they felt he'd be helped by Fenway nearly as much as Coors, and he did end up with a nearly 200 point differential:

2022

.841 Fenway

.642 Away

[S5Dewey]

... Edited January 15, 2023 by S5Dewey

[moonslav59]

...

 

I agree.

[notin]

...

 

..!

[Hugh2]

Story vs Bogey

 

Bogey:

.872 Home

.758 Away

 

Story:

.958 Home

.739 Away

 

While the differential is stunning for Story, his away OPS was not very different from Bogey's. Many of Story's away PAs were in pitcher's parks like LAD, SDP and SFG.

 

.658 in SF (200 PAs)

.981 in AZ (199)

.691 in SD (188)

.770 in LA (151)

 

Those were the 4 largest sample sizes outside of Coors. The next largest was 70 in CHI Cubs' park.

 

Maybe they felt he'd be helped by Fenway nearly as much as Coors, and he did end up with a nearly 200 point differential:

2022

.841 Fenway

.642 Away

 

At the time of the signing Story actually had an OPS .002 higher than Bogey AWAY from Coors, or maybe it was .002 lower but I think it was higher. Point is, effectively the same.

[moonslav59]

At the time of the signing Story actually had an OPS .002 higher than Bogey AWAY from Coors, or maybe it was .002 lower but I think it was higher. Point is, effectively the same.

 

Yes, and the point being, while Story was helped more by his home numbers than Bogey, and although Bogey was helped by home numbers, too, both were about the same hitters on the road.

 

Before the elbow injury, Story was considered a much better defender.

 

I'm not trying to ignore the injury, but it seems that without it, Story would have gotten much more money than $140M/6.

[Old Red]

Yes, and the point being, while Story was helped more by his home numbers than Bogey, and although Bogey was helped by home numbers, too, both were about the same hitters on the road.

 

Before the elbow injury, Story was considered a much better defender.

 

I'm not trying to ignore the injury, but it seems that without it, Story would have gotten much more money than $140M/6.

With it Story got more than he should have. When JH opens his checkbook I don’t think he would be alright with paying someone who sits out a year whether it be Story, or Sale.

[moonslav59]

With it Story got more than he should have. When JH opens his checkbook I don’t think he would be alright with paying someone who sits out a year whether it be Story, or Sale.

 

In today’s market, a healthy Story would likely get $140M/5. That’s not to say he’s worth what he got.

[Old Red]

In today’s market, a healthy Story would likely get $140M/5. That’s not to say he’s worth what he got.

 

He didn’t get what others got last year, and he’s not, and wasn’t healthy, and he not in todays market.

[Hugh2]

In today’s market, a healthy Story would likely get $140M/5. That’s not to say he’s worth what he got.

 

If he was healthy in todays market he'd get a lot more than that. Todays Story in Todays market would not get very much at all. He might get a high AAV with way less years and an opt out. Or just short term deal. Well actually, he wouldn't even get any of that because he can't play for at least 1/2 the season. He might get a contract structured like Paxton but with a lot more money potentially.

[Hugh2]

Yes, and the point being, while Story was helped more by his home numbers than Bogey, and although Bogey was helped by home numbers, too, both were about the same hitters on the road.

 

Before the elbow injury, Story was considered a much better defender.

 

I'm not trying to ignore the injury, but it seems that without it, Story would have gotten much more money than $140M/6.

 

Story is going to have to perform at the back end of his contract now do be worth the money, because he aint' opting out. The good news is, a healthy Story is a really good ball player. The bad news is, what if he can never get back to that level of play? He is only going to be in his age-30 seasons so there's a decent chance he still comes back strong.

 

Lets just hope this is one of those situations where it's not a snowball effect of injury after injury. A lot of guys get injured and have a lost year or two and then come back fine, while others are seemingly never the same or struggle longer.

 

I don't know if I'd want to bet on him, but seeing how we are stuck with his contract I'm certainly rooting for him. I feel a heck of a lot better if he has a productive 2nd half to 2023.

[moonslav59]

He didn’t get what others got last year, and he’s not, and wasn’t healthy, and he not in todays market.

 

Yes, that is basically what I said.

 

BTW, yes, he did get what others got, last year. He got exactly what Baez got.

 

My point was, I think he'd gotten more had there been no health concerns. Do you disagree?

 

I guess how much more might be up for a wide open debate.

[moonslav59]

Story is going to have to perform at the back end of his contract now do be worth the money, because he aint' opting out. The good news is, a healthy Story is a really good ball player. The bad news is, what if he can never get back to that level of play? He is only going to be in his age-30 seasons so there's a decent chance he still comes back strong.

 

Lets just hope this is one of those situations where it's not a snowball effect of injury after injury. A lot of guys get injured and have a lost year or two and then come back fine, while others are seemingly never the same or struggle longer.

 

I don't know if I'd want to bet on him, but seeing how we are stuck with his contract I'm certainly rooting for him. I feel a heck of a lot better if he has a productive 2nd half to 2023.

 

I would not bet on Story earning the contract in his last 4 years.

 

I'm doubtful he even earns 4/6th of the $140 over the last 4 years ($94M/4.)

 

Our best hope is probably he can come close to earning $90M/4.

[moonslav59]

If he was healthy in todays market he'd get a lot more than that. Todays Story in Todays market would not get very much at all. He might get a high AAV with way less years and an opt out. Or just short term deal. Well actually, he wouldn't even get any of that because he can't play for at least 1/2 the season. He might get a contract structured like Paxton but with a lot more money potentially.

 

Even if he came back and looked great in September, I doubt he'd get $94M/4 on the open market, next winter.

 

My point was about what healthy Story would have gotten, last winter and this winter, and that the higher than norm injury risk lessened what he would have gotten..

[Old Red]

Yes, that is basically what I said.

 

BTW, yes, he did get what others got, last year. He got exactly what Baez got.

 

My point was, I think he'd gotten more had there been no health concerns. Do you disagree?

 

I guess how much more might be up for a wide open debate.

 

Baez was your guy. Yes I agree Story would have gotten more if healthy, but he wasn’t, and I don’t know if there were many serious offers out there besides the Sox for the obvious reason.

[moonslav59]

Baez was your guy. Yes I agree Story would have gotten more if healthy, but he wasn’t, and I don’t know if there were many serious offers out there besides the Sox for the obvious reason.

 

Indeed. I'm not trying to sugar coat the Story signing. My point was only that the amount we signed him for was less than he probably would have gotten as the injury risk was factored in. I like to think of it this way, but nobody else has to: he was probably worth close to $140M/5 had there been no hint of the elbow injury. If he missed a year, paying him $140M/6 pretty much cover the missed year. I'm not saying a healthy Story was worth $140M/5, but I do think a healthy Story was worth more than $140M/6.

 

Yes, I suggested we sign Baez, Suzuki among others.

 

At least Baez is still healthy. Suzuki may still earn his pay. Here is how the FA SS signings did last winter:

 

$32.5M x 10 Seager (.772 OPS) 4.5 fWAR

$25.0M x 7 Semien (.733 OPS) 4.2 fWAR at 2B

$23.3M x 6 Story (.737 OPS) 2.3 fWAR at 2B

$23.3M x 6 Baez (.671 OPS) 2.0 fWAR

$35M x 1 Correa (.834 OPS) 4.4 fWAR

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Moral of the Story: Stay away from injury-discounted contracts!

[moonslav59]

Moral of the Story: Stay away from injury-discounted contracts!

 

It seems when teams are in bargain hunter mode, they end up settling on these types of contracts more often than not.

 

One could probably make a strong case that even the "healthy" large and long contracts have not fared too well, either.

[mvp 78]

Moral of the Story: Stay away from injury-discounted contracts!

 

^^^

[jacksonianmarch]

I am still curious as to who the sox SS will be. I know Iglesias and Andrus are out there, but thus far no bites apparently

[mvp 78]

I am still curious as to who the sox SS will be. I know Iglesias and Andrus are out there, but thus far no bites apparently

 

Kiké