9/30/2022 Last Road Trip to Toronto

[vegasbob]

Tough game tonight vs the Jays Alek Manoah (15-7; 2.31 ERA; !.00 Whip) , who tends to have a big mouth., matching his 285 pound ass.

 

The Jays have locked up their wild card entry, so maybe will rest some usual starters .

 

Nick Pivetta will need his best stuff to try and get his 10-11 record levelled . The Sox are still climbing the hill towards .500 but have no room for slippage here.

 

Keep the Win streak going , Nicky.

[vegasbob]

In a space/time continuum long ago and far away , the Sox made their last trip to Toronto, short Duran and Houck, June 27-29 . The team dropped 2 of 3 , but finished the month 20-6 with high expectations to be competing for at least a WC slot.

 

July, August and September proved to be the end of that dream as injuries to the starting pitching and a a weak approach to the trade deadline sealed the deal for 2022. A couple bright spots have emerged . A win tonight would result in a 13-13 September . Casas may be solving the 1B vacancy . Bello shows the talent and competitiveness to be a winner with more experience and decent hitting/fielding support. McGuire/Wong duo may be adequate at catcher for'23. Verdugo shows he can hit well enough to hold RF or LF. Whether he comes back or not, Xander showed grit , determination and ability in his contract option year, a true professional.

[dgalehouse]

Tough game tonight vs the Jays Alek Manoah (15-7; 2.31 ERA; !.00 Whip) , who tends to have a big mouth., matching his 285 pound ass.

 

The Jays have locked up their wild card entry, so maybe will rest some usual starters .

 

Nick Pivetta will need his best stuff to try and get his 10-11 record levelled . The Sox are still climbing the hill towards .500 but have no room for slippage here.

 

Keep the Win streak going , Nicky.

 

Toronto hasn't locked up the fourth seed ( first wild card ) spot yet. It matters because it would give them home field for the best of three series with the Rays or Mariners. Until they do that , they will probably play their regulars.

[Old Red]

Toronto hasn't locked up the fourth seed ( first wild card ) spot yet. It matters because it would give them home field for the best of three series with the Rays or Mariners. Until they do that , they will probably play their regulars.

Boston certainly aren’t putting their best team on the field tonight, which I think they should do with Toronto still fighting with other teams for playoff positioning. Putting Duran Duran the Butterfly Man in the lineup is not doing that at all. Just the opposite.

[Old Red]

It’s nice of Duran to show up tonight when the games for all content, and purposes don’t mean anything, but couldn’t show up last time the Red Sox were in Toronto when the games did. They should have left him home.

[FredLynn]

This game is about to get out of hand IN THE FIRST INNING.

[harmony]

Red Sox wins this weekend will be welcome (by someone who has tickets to the unlikely Game 3 of the Wild Card Series in Seattle).

[FredLynn]

4-0

Game over

God this team sucks.

Is it next Thursday yet?

Henry owes us an apology

[vegasbob]

Pivetta takes 89 pitches to complete 4 innings and allows 4 runs, aided by a WP and PB to set up runners on 3rd , who are then delivered. Blu4e Jays lineup features 5 guys with .800+ OPS's. Sox show 4 but 2 of them are Casas and Almonte on small samples sizes.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

With Pivetta the SOX at least have their #5 starter locked in for next season.

[vegasbob]

It’s nice of Duran to show up tonight when the games for all content, and purposes don’t mean anything, but couldn’t show up last time the Red Sox were in Toronto when the games did. They should have left him home.

 

Turns out that ORT was the unvax'ed this time . And tomorrow Justin Castro Trudeau's government lifts its restrictions on allowing unvax'ed visitors, so all is forgiven.

[vegasbob]

With Pivetta the SOX at least have their #5 starter locked in for next season.

 

Given Nick's pricing and the ability to start 32 games this year, I am sure he will be in the mix.

[vegasbob]

Duran shows the team how to hit Manoah. Blow the bat up and bloop it out into no man's land

 

Erased by a Devers DP

Edited October 1, 2022 by vegasbob

[illinoisredsox]

Given Nick's pricing and the ability to start 32 games this year, I am sure he will be in the mix.

 

They could do far worse for a #5. If he’s pencilled in as the #3, they are in deep trouble for 2023.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Bogey's BA is dropping faster than an Acme anvil.

[vegasbob]

Tyler Danish throws 7 pitches giving up an HR and 2 other hits. He looks a little vulnerable

 

10 pitches, 2 HRs and 3 runs given. Cora's bullpen roulette backfires again.

 

But he whiffs Bichette, so there's that

 

Then punches out Guerrero.; Once Tyler is warmed up, he's a devil of a pitcher

Edited October 1, 2022 by vegasbob

[vegasbob]

Franklin German will need to work on his game off season if he expects to make many Benjamin Franklins in the future

[vegasbob]

23-48 (.323) in the AL East, Pivetta's contribution to that is 1-8, .877 OPS against. Nick, get a hold of yourself, the same guys will be back next April. Work on something, anything.

[moonslav59]

Nick has slipped back to looking like a questionable 5th starter after flirting with 3/4 status more often than not, since joining the Sox.

 

ERAs by our starters (some inning in relief for some pitchers)

 

3.06 Wacha (22 GS)

3.18 Sale (2 GS)

4.05 Nate (19)

4.41 Hill (25)

4.48 Nick (31)

 

3.15 Houck (4)

3.45 Whitlock (9)

4.39 Bello (9)

5.47 Crawford (12)

5.75 Winckowski (14)

11.29 Seabold (5)

.

[Bellhorn04]

Nick has slipped back to looking like a questionable 5th starter after flirting with 3/4 status more often than not, since joining the Sox..

 

And what makes you say that?

 

He's got the numbers of a 3/4 starter. They haven't changed all that much.

[Old Red]

And what makes you say that?

 

He's got the numbers of a 3/4 starter. They haven't changed all that much.

 

The best part about Pivetta is he was available to take the the mound when it was his turn. That in itself should be worth something especially after what has happened this year.

[Bellhorn04]

The best part about Pivetta is he was available to take the the mound when it was his turn. That in itself should be worth something especially after what has happened this year.

 

It's worth a lot. He's a much cheaper version of Porcello.

[moonslav59]

And what makes you say that?

 

He's got the numbers of a 3/4 starter. They haven't changed all that much.

 

He's actually looked like a #2 (#1 on some teams) for pretty long stretches, a #3-4 for even longer stretches, but a questionable #5 for others, like lately.

 

5.67 in his last 7 starts looks "questionable," but I'm not calling him a questionable 5th starter for 2023. He just looks like one, now. His ups and downs, since joining the Sox make me believe we will see enough ups to keep him looking like a solid #5, a decnet #4 and possibly a decent #3, but hopefully we'll have 3 better than him in 2023.

 

Here is a breakdown of his ups and downs with the Sox:

 

GS ERA FIP

2 1.80 3.39 (2020)

11 3.77 3.27 (start or 2021)

10 5.47 5.49 (middle 2021)

10 4.43 4.20 (end of 2021)

5 7.84 5.48 (start to 2022)

12 2.60 3.18 (middle of 2022)

15 5.62 5.36 (last 15 starts) and 5.67/6.08 last 7 GS

 

Overall, he has been an excellent 5th starter, often needed as our 2/3. He's done fine as a 2-4 for much of his time, here.

 

I'm glad to have him back as our 4/5, next season, but right now, he is not pitching very well, and a 15 game sample size is not tiny.

 

One knowledgeable baseball fan I know, often says, and there is a grain of truth to this, "A starter is only as good as his last start." While I don't think this is true, it often feels like it is.

 

[Bellhorn04]

One knowledgeable baseball fan I know, often says, and there is a grain of truth to this, "A starter is only as good as his last start." While I don't think this is true, it often feels like it is.

 

That's just another way of saying the Recency Effect is powerful.

Edited October 1, 2022 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

That's just another way of saying the Recency Effect is powerful.

 

Pivetta threw 175 IP this year, which is a career high, with his previous being 164 IP back in 2018.

 

Not uncommon for pitchers to wear down over a long season…

[moonslav59]

That's just another way of saying the Recency Effect is powerful.

 

Has he looked questionable over his last 15 starts, or not?

 

yes, he's looked questionable a few other times since joining the Sox and always bounced back. I'm not saying he won't again, in fact, I expect him to bounce back.

 

All I'm saying is he has "slipped back to looking questionable," as most 5ht starters do from time to time.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

From today's Boston Globe: "Pivetta’s divisional ERA is the 14th highest among the 1,256 instances of a pitcher making 13+ starts in a season against the AL East since the introduction of division play in 1969."

 

I don't play a math teacher anymore, but I think that's over half a century. But be confident the Red Sox analytics department can plan next year's rotation so that Nick only starts against the MLB's other five divisions next year.

 

ps. this is the latest on a Saturday morning in October of a season in which Boston will not be participating in the playoffs that I have typed something about any Pivettas in 6,051 posts.

Edited October 1, 2022 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[Bellhorn04]

Has he looked questionable over his last 15 starts, or not?

 

I was just replying to the statement that a starter is only as good as his last start.

[moonslav59]

From today's Boston Globe: "Pivetta’s divisional ERA is the 14th highest among the 1,256 instances of a pitcher making 13+ starts in a season against the AL East since the introduction of division play in 1969."

 

I don't play a math teacher anymore, but I think that's over half a century. But be confident the Red Sox analytics department can plan next year's rotation so that Nick only starts against the MLB's other five divisions next year.

 

ps. this is the latest on a Saturday morning in October of a season in which Boston will not be participating in the playoffs that I have typed something about any Pivettas in 6,051 posts.

 

Maybe some ALC or ALW team should make an offer:

0.41 v OAK (3 GS)

1.84 v TEX (3)

3.00 v SEA (1)

3.43 v HOU (3)

4.91 v LAA (2)

 

2.13 v CLE (2)

2.25 v CHW (4)

3.12 v DET (1)

6.98 v KCR (4)

9.00 v MN (3)

 

The Angels, Twins or Royals to maximize the effect.

 

[moonslav59]

From today's Boston Globe: "Pivetta’s divisional ERA is the 14th highest among the 1,256 instances of a pitcher making 13+ starts in a season against the AL East since the introduction of division play in 1969."

 

I don't play a math teacher anymore, but I think that's over half a century. But be confident the Red Sox analytics department can plan next year's rotation so that Nick only starts against the MLB's other five divisions next year.

 

ps. this is the latest on a Saturday morning in October of a season in which Boston will not be participating in the playoffs that I have typed something about any Pivettas in 6,051 posts.

 

The 4.98 ERA at Fenway does not help.

 

He's 4.44 overall with the Sox, so he's much better on the road.