2023 Free Agents

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Reyes had shoulder surgery in May/June will not be ready to start the 2033 season. His return date is unknown just yet, but he probably gets back on the mound a good 2-3 days before his next injury…

 

Red Sox fans can't wait to wait until they have to wait again to see if he can take the mound in the second half of next season. He'll be another secret weapon -- better than any deadline acquisition that costs prospects... if only he can be as good as he used to be before he wrecked his arm.

 

Wait -- isn't there a new pitch clock rule on how long a front office can pitch to its customers to wait until the roster is actually complete?

[Bellhorn04]

Red Sox fans can't wait to wait until they have to wait again to see if he can take the mound in the second half of next season. He'll be another secret weapon -- better than any deadline acquisition that costs prospects... if only he can be as good as he used to be before he wrecked his arm.

 

Wait -- isn't there a new pitch clock rule on how long a front office can pitch to its customers to wait until the roster is actually complete?

 

You're going to have to settle for reported interest and rubbing of hands over $95 mill to spend for a while yet, sir.

[Hugh2]

You're going to have to settle for reported interest and rubbing of hands over $95 mill to spend for a while yet, sir.

 

Baseball never has, and perhaps never will be like the NBA or the NFL where free agency starts and seemingly finishes within one week. It's a much longer offseason, and I don't expect anything to happen for at least a few more weeks.

 

FWIW the small number of moves that have taken place have all been extensions or re-signings. No major players changing hands have occurred yet.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox fans can't wait to wait until they have to wait again to see if he can take the mound in the second half of next season. He'll be another secret weapon -- better than any deadline acquisition that costs prospects... if only he can be as good as he used to be before he wrecked his arm.

 

Wait -- isn't there a new pitch clock rule on how long a front office can pitch to its customers to wait until the roster is actually complete?

 

You can put him on the 60 Day IL and give him a multi-year contract. It's a better play than the James Paxton deal IMO.

[mvp 78]

You're going to have to settle for reported interest and xxxxxxxx xx xxxxx over $95 mill to spend for a while yet, sir.

 

Interest kings. Keep fans on the hook until we are released back into the pond without anything to eat.

[Bellhorn04]

Baseball never has, and perhaps never will be like the NBA or the NFL where free agency starts and seemingly finishes within one week. It's a much longer offseason, and I don't expect anything to happen for at least a few more weeks.

 

FWIW the small number of moves that have taken place have all been extensions or re-signings. No major players changing hands have occurred yet.

 

Absolutely true. But man, we have suffered through some long/boring/painful/head-scratching offseasons in recent years.

[mvp 78]

Absolutely true. But man, we have suffered through some long/boring/painful/head-scratching offseasons in recent years.

 

The last decent offseason was 2017-2018:

 

JD

Braiser MiLB deal (I know)

Mitch Moreland re-signed

 

And that's still fairly boring.

[oldtimer]

With a last place finish in 2022 and a lot of holes to fill with good but not great money to spend, I still recommend resetting in 2023. Any FA signings should be those who will remain with the club for at least 3 years unless of course they are very inexpensive and can fill a hole pitching or in the lineup for a year. I would exclude very expensive older FA's since even with them we will probably not be competitive at the highest level. A guy like Verlander is still capable but not right for us at this time.

[notin]

The last decent offseason was 2017-2018:

 

JD

Braiser MiLB deal (I know)

Mitch Moreland re-signed

 

And that's still fairly boring.

 

The last exciting and effective one was 2012-13

 

Victorino, S Drew, Napoli, Dempster and especially Uehara…

[Hugh2]

The last exciting and effective one was 2012-13

 

Victorino, S Drew, Napoli, Dempster and especially Uehara…

 

many of those players were a disaster the following year. Kind of reminds me of the results from 2021-2022 without the sweet sweet victory of a WS.

[notin]

many of those players were a disaster the following year. Kind of reminds me of the results from 2021-2022 without the sweet sweet victory of a WS.

 

I think only Uehara and Napoli had any staying power. Although Dempster had the decency to retire and not be an albatross…

[mvp 78]

The last exciting and effective one was 2012-13

 

Victorino, S Drew, Napoli, Dempster and especially Uehara…

 

But were fans really excited about the Flyin' Hawaiian, Napoli, et al? I don't remember it being all that "exciting" TBH.

[mvp 78]

Everyone always forgets Mike Carp.

[mvp 78]

Craig Breslow was really good in 2013 too.

[mvp 78]

I think only Uehara and Napoli had any staying power. Although Dempster had the decency to retire and not be an albatross…

 

Brock Holt?

[mvp 78]

The downside to 2012-13 offseason was:

 

Purchased the contracts of Alex Wilson, Steven Wright, Dan Butler, and Alex Hassan from Pawtucket and Allen Webster and Christian Vazquez from Portland.

 

Followed by:

 

Houston Selected Josh Fields in the MLB Phase of the Rule 5 Draft

Minnesota Selected Ryan Pressly in the MLB Phase of the Rule 5 Draft

[moonslav59]

With a last place finish in 2022 and a lot of holes to fill with good but not great money to spend, I still recommend resetting in 2023. Any FA signings should be those who will remain with the club for at least 3 years unless of course they are very inexpensive and can fill a hole pitching or in the lineup for a year. I would exclude very expensive older FA's since even with them we will probably not be competitive at the highest level. A guy like Verlander is still capable but not right for us at this time.

 

$85-95M is a good chunk of change, and we have less holes to fill this winter than any of the past 3 winters.

 

SS

RF

SP

P

RP

RP

 

We might get by with 5.

[Bellhorn04]

$85-95M is a good chunk of change, and we have less holes to fill this winter than any of the past 3 winters.

 

SS

RF

SP

P

RP

RP

 

We might get by with 5.

 

But if they sign Correa it'll knock 30-35 off the 85-95.

[Old Red]

But if they sign Correa it'll knock 30-35 off the 85-95.

 

If it turns out as expected, and the Red Sox are to cheap to pay Bogey I don’t think they will spend even more money to sign Correa.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If it turns out as expected, and the Red Sox are to cheap to pay Bogey I don’t think they will spend even more money to sign Correa.

 

I gotta agree with the aging red one.

 

Hope I'm wrong, but got a feeling if Bogey makes his X on another team's contract, someone in Boston's front office might not see it as a loss, but a gain...

 

... to be redistributed, of course.

[mvp 78]

If it turns out as expected, and the Red Sox are to cheap to pay Bogey I don’t think they will spend even more money to sign Correa.

 

It's just wishful thinking by people in the Boston area. Need to keep those newspaper sales up and those radios tuned in?

[moonslav59]

But if they sign Correa it'll knock 30-35 off the 85-95.

 

Yes, go ahead and knock off $35M off $90. THat still leaves us with $55M, which is more than we had to spend in 2020, 2021 and 2022, including the Story signing, and now we'd have one less slot to fill. $55M could be spent like this...

 

$22M Nimmo

$15M Nate

$10M RP

$8M RP

 

We could spend less on RF and more on pitching or make a trade to fill one slot and spend more at the other 4-5 slots.

 

It can be done. There is more to be optimistic about this winter than the last 3, assuming we spend up to the line. If we pull the trigger on a major trade, we can work wonders- or take a huge swing and miss.

[moonslav59]

I gotta agree with the aging red one.

 

Hope I'm wrong, but got a feeling if Bogey makes his X on another team's contract, someone in Boston's front office might not see it as a loss, but a gain...

 

... to be redistributed, of course.

 

Maybe they view defense at SS as more valuable than some of us do, and maybe they view Correa as vastly superior on defense to Bogey. We just don't know.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe they view defense at SS as more valuable than some of us do, and maybe they view Correa as vastly superior on defense to Bogey. We just don't know.

 

I'm not opposed to signing Carlos, but to me that would be more of a stunner than the announcement of a longterm Devers extension (and I agree with Jax that most posters' numbers for what Raffy gets are too low)...

[Hugh2]

If it turns out as expected, and the Red Sox are to cheap to pay Bogey I don’t think they will spend even more money to sign Correa.

 

Or if Correa is only slightly more expensive why wouldn't you take the better player and net a pick? I don't even dare to ask who your ss is.

 

Let me guess.....some guy?

[Hugh2]

Maybe they view defense at SS as more valuable than some of us do, and maybe they view Correa as vastly superior on defense to Bogey. We just don't know.

 

I think that's a guarantee, but it all comes down to price. Anyone would take Correa over Bogaerts if the money is close to even but if COrrea is getting 260 and Bogey can be had for 160 I'd go with Bogey and so would Boston.

[Hugh2]

What I don't understand is, if people really think the Sox are too cheap to sign Bogey or any of the other shorts stops where do they think the money is going to go? Do they seriously believe the Sox are going to stay significantly under the cap?

 

This is delusional because all history and precedent as well as language coming out of the front office indicate otherwise. You can only have so many reclamation projects, eventually, they would have to start removing star prospects from the 40-man. it ain't happening, it's not a logical argument. The money is going somewhere folks.

 

You can throw around words such as dumpster diving, or Tampa north or whatever you fancy when you get hot and bothered but your argument falls flat and short of reality. The money is going somewhere. If not Bogey, its Correa/Swanson/Turner. If it's nto a SS they're going big on pitching (DeGrom and Verlander) and if it's none of thee above they're going after Judge.

 

What other argument is there? you think they're going to pay Franchy 1 year 70 million just to piss you off?

[moonslav59]

I think that's a guarantee, but it all comes down to price. Anyone would take Correa over Bogaerts if the money is close to even but if COrrea is getting 260 and Bogey can be had for 160 I'd go with Bogey and so would Boston.

 

I'm not so sure those estimates are correct. Bogey's offense has been way more consistent than Correa's, since his relatively slower start, and he has missed less time with injuries than CC. Many GMs value that, too.

 

OPS+

Correa (will be 28 all season 2023)

135 in 2015 (age 20) 432 PAs

124 in 2016 (21) 577

155 in 2017 (22) 422

99 in 2018 (23) 468

137 in 2019 (24) 321

93 in 2020 (25) 221

131 in 2021 (26) 640

140 in 2022 (27) 590

 

2021 and 2022 were the first 2 years in a row Correa had more than 481 PAs or an OPS+ above 130. Is he consistent enough and healthy enough to get paid way more than Bogey- just because of better D?

 

Bogey (will be 30 all season in 2023. He began at age 20- same as Correa, but became FT at age 21)

 

87 in 2021 at age 20 (50 PAs)

84 in '22 (21) 594

107 in '15 (22) 654 (The year CC broke into the bigs)

111 in '16 (23) 719

95 in '17 (24) 635

135 in '18 (25) 580

139 in '19 (26) 698

128 in '20 (27) 225

129 in '21 (28) 603

131 in '22 (29) 631

 

Bogey has 9 seasons in a row over 590 PAs, if you pro-rate 2020. He has had 5 straight seasons at a 128 OPS+ or more.

 

Correa has had 3 of 7 seasons at 590 PAs or more and only 2 over 630 PAs. He's been over a 128 OPS+ in 3 of the last 5 seasons.

 

I do think Correa gets more money and more years (due to his age), but it might not be by as much as you suggested.

 

I'd take Correa at $260M/8 over Bogey at $160M/6. It might be more like $300M/10 CC vs $225M/7 XB. I'd still go CC, but I have no idea which one the Sox would take. (My guess is neither, but if they had to, I'd guess CC.)

 

One wild card is the fact that CC's D declined, this year, while Bogey's improved, and there is no shift, next year.

 

 

[moonslav59]

What I don't understand is, if people really think the Sox are too cheap to sign Bogey or any of the other shorts stops where do they think the money is going to go? Do they seriously believe the Sox are going to stay significantly under the cap?

 

This is delusional because all history and precedent as well as language coming out of the front office indicate otherwise. You can only have so many reclamation projects, eventually, they would have to start removing star prospects from the 40-man. it ain't happening, it's not a logical argument. The money is going somewhere folks.

 

You can throw around words such as dumpster diving, or Tampa north or whatever you fancy when you get hot and bothered but your argument falls flat and short of reality. The money is going somewhere. If not Bogey, its Correa/Swanson/Turner. If it's nto a SS they're going big on pitching (DeGrom and Verlander) and if it's none of thee above they're going after Judge.

 

What other argument is there? you think they're going to pay Franchy 1 year 70 million just to piss you off?

 

We had so many holes to fill the last few winters, and the limited winter spending budgets pretty much forced "dumpster dive" type moves at several positions.

 

I can't see as many open slots, this year as the last 3 winters had. I'm not going to go back and look, but it might have looked something like this:

 

2020: $40M to spend on 11-12 slots, including the ones vacated by Betts, Price, Porcello and others and a massive budget cut overall)

 

2021: $40M on 8-9 slots

 

2022: $50M on 6-7 slots

 

2023 looks like it might be $90M for 5-7 slots. There is not enough roster slots open to use that $90M on 11-12 slots.

 

Bloom will essentially be forced to go with quality over quantity for the first time under Bloom. How he chooses to spend will be his legacy.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We had so many holes to fill the last few winters, and the limited winter spending budgets pretty much forced "dumpster dive" type moves at several positions.

 

I can't see as many open slots, this year as the last 3 winters had. I'm not going to go back and look, but it might have looked something like this:

 

2020: $40M to spend on 11-12 slots, including the ones vacated by Betts, Price, Porcello and others and a massive budget cut overall)

 

2021: $40M on 8-9 slots

 

2022: $50M on 6-7 slots

 

2023 looks like it might be $90M for 5-7 slots. There is not enough roster slots open to use that $90M on 11-12 slots.

 

Bloom will essentially be forced to go with quality over quantity for the first time under Bloom. How he chooses to spend will be his legacy.

 

Don't discount (no pun) how spending can be affected by taking on someone else's bad contract to sweeten a trade return. Also, might it be prudent to keep some budget in reserve for midseason in case they have a shot at a wild card and actually want to upgrade and add salary?