2023 Free Agents

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox choose not to resign Bogaerts nor Devers, and then don't reinvest this offseason in bonafide star baseball players...

 

... based on everything we know about Bloom -- and not Henry, who hired him -- evaluate the above statement with the more likely adjective: possible or probable.

 

Bloom works for Henry. Henry fires HOBO's who don't get the results he wants.

[Old Red]

The Red Sox choose not to resign Bogaerts nor Devers, and then don't reinvest this offseason in bonafide star baseball players...

 

... based on everything we know about Bloom -- and not Henry, who hired him -- evaluate the above statement with the more likely adjective: possible or probable.

 

From all reports both negotiations as they are with Bogey , and Raffy are far apart. Reports aren’t always very accurate, but the fact remains that Bogey is a FA, and Raffy has one year to go, and neither are resigned. Not surprising to me at all. Like I’ve said actions speak louder than words, and in my view if the Red Sox really wanted Bogey signed it would have been done by now. Their words say one thing, and their actions say another. Season ticket holders may have to be sold on Casas, and his eye at the plate, and farm rankings. That will be a hard sell for many.k

[mvp 78]

It's my wish, not my prediction.

 

My guess is, we add 2 decent starters in hopes we find the next Wachas.

 

QO - Eovaldi

Sale

Pivetta

Bello

Paxton

Whitlock

Plus two starters??

[mvp 78]

Maybe Simmons?

 

Can Segura still play SS?

 

May as well just run Downs out there if you're going to sign Simmons who had a 27 wRC+ last season and a -0.3 fWAR.

 

Segura has played 17 innings at SS the past 3 years. I don't think he's an option at SS.

[mvp 78]

From all reports both negotiations as they are with Bogey , and Raffy are far apart. Reports aren’t always very accurate, but the fact remains that Bogey is a FA, and Raffy has one year to go, and neither are resigned. Not surprising to me at all. Like I’ve said actions speak louder than words, and in my view if the Red Sox really wanted Bogey signed it would have been done by now. Their words say one thing, and their actions say another. Season ticket holders may have to be sold on Casas, and his eye at the plate, and farm rankings. That will be a hard sell for many.k

 

Are you saying "sold on Casas" as in the Sox are only going to keep Casas and aren't going to have any high profile players going forward until other young guys show up?

[Hugh2]

Thoughts on free agency this year.

 

The Sox have 100 million to spend, approximately. That is the good news, the bad news is if you could pick one year to not have the money to spend this would be it. The free agent class is pretty horrible.

 

For example, a guy like Nimmo would be a perfect fit for this club. But in a FA class so weak Nimmo is the 2nd best outfielder meaning he's going to get overpaid. The Sox are going to get less bang for their buck with this 100 million. The bright spot is the SS market, which seems to have several big names. It could mean getting Bogaerts for less than he wants to make the decision to let him go to FA a smart one or it could also mean upgrading with a guy who may be an upgrade in Correa or Turner. With the shift changes coming in 2023 up-the middle defense matters more than it has in decades and 2nd base is now going to be a premium defensive position again making Story a perfect 2nd baseman. With a Turner/Bogaerts/Correa addition the Sox may have an elite infield next year but a horrible outfield again. Maybe Nimmo wants to come here and sign in the 17.5-20 mil range which isn't horrible or the Sox make a trade.

 

It's the pitching that concerns me the most. There are some elite names at the top in Verlander, Rodon, and DeGrome but Jacob has serious health concerns as does Rodon who threw a career-high 178 innings last year after throwing 132 in 2021 which was the most he had thrown since he was 23 and he's going to be 30 next year. Verlander, there's no real knock against other than he will be 40 next year and he's probably going to get 2/80 3/120 somewhere. After that, there's a drop-off in the pitching market.

 

Blooms in a tough spot. If I didn't have to worry about my job I'd be looking to build this team up for 2024, but if I was in his position I'd be feeling as if 2023 has to be a year they make a playoff run or he gets canned.

Edited November 11, 2022 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Old Red]

Are you saying "sold on Casas" as in the Sox are only going to keep Casas and aren't going to have any high profile players going forward until other young guys show up?

 

No I’m just talking on how things would look at the moment when Bogey leaves, and possibly Raffy too. Casas, and Bello have lots of promise, but not much else at this point. Bogey will be replaced as will others, but I’m not going to have any high hopes to think things will be any better after Humpty Dumpty gets put back together again.

[mvp 78]

I agree, Hugh. Bad offseason to have money to spend. I think the Mets are going to prioritize keeping Nimmo, so I don't see him coming here.

 

Maybe the Sox sign one starting pitcher to lead the rotation? If they don't, the rotation will look a little rough. Is there a non-QO guy that they should bring in? They've been talking about Tyler Anderson, but jumping on a 32 year old guy who had a career year with a xFIP that was 1.50 greater than his ERA seems suspect! More likely they go Kluber or Taillon, but that doesn't necessarily LEAD the rotation.

 

Rodon is an injury risk. deGrom is going to break the bank, but would be exciting as all get out.

[mvp 78]

No I’m just talking on how things would look at the moment when Bogey leaves, and possibly Raffy too. Casas, and Bello have lots of promise, but not much else at this point. Bogey will be replaced as will others, but I’m not going to have any high hopes to think things will be any better after Humpty Dumpty gets put back together again.

 

Henry has money, it will get better at some point. The question is how long it will take.

[Hugh2]

I agree, Hugh. Bad offseason to have money to spend. I think the Mets are going to prioritize keeping Nimmo, so I don't see him coming here.

 

Maybe the Sox sign one starting pitcher to lead the rotation? If they don't, the rotation will look a little rough. Is there a non-QO guy that they should bring in? They've been talking about Tyler Anderson, but jumping on a 32 year old guy who had a career year with a xFIP that was 1.50 greater than his ERA seems suspect! More likely they go Kluber or Taillon, but that doesn't necessarily LEAD the rotation.

 

Rodon is an injury risk. deGrom is going to break the bank, but would be exciting as all get out.

 

If Eovaldi accepts they still need to go after a guy. I think someone in the Bassitt/Taillon/Senga makes more sense for the Sox than going after DeGrome. If Eovaldi rejects I think you need two of those guys, however, I also think the QO might kill Nathans market so maybe the Sox can resign him for 3/35 or somewhere in that range.

 

I would like to see the REAL number the Sox have to spend before hitting the luxury tax. The number seems to be very conflicted, I thought it was around 80 million now I'm seeing it to be 100. Arbitration, the AAV considerations options/buyouts, and player benefits really make things convoluted. Given the market this year maybe the Sox can reset next year and still be able to spend a ton of money next offseason if they can get creative this year. Maybe sign some guys to contracts they're guaranteed to opt out of next year or sign some large 1-year deals. Love him or hate him, I think Bloom is going to make the offseason very interesting somehow.

[Bellhorn04]

If Eovaldi accepts they still need to go after a guy. I think someone in the Bassitt/Taillon/Senga makes more sense for the Sox than going after DeGrome. If Eovaldi rejects I think you need two of those guys, however, I also think the QO might kill Nathans market so maybe the Sox can resign him for 3/35 or somewhere in that range.

 

I would like to see the REAL number the Sox have to spend before hitting the luxury tax. The number seems to be very conflicted, I thought it was around 80 million now I'm seeing it to be 100. Arbitration, the AAV considerations options/buyouts, and player benefits really make things convoluted. Given the market this year maybe the Sox can reset next year and still be able to spend a ton of money next offseason if they can get creative this year. Maybe sign some guys to contracts they're guaranteed to opt out of next year or sign some large 1-year deals. Love him or hate him, I think Bloom is going to make the offseason very interesting somehow.

 

They have around $95 million. That's after Bogey opting out.

[moonslav59]

Thoughts on free agency this year.

 

The Sox have 100 million to spend, approximately. That is the good news, the bad news is if you could pick one year to not have the money to spend this would be it. The free agent class is pretty horrible.

 

For example, a guy like Nimmo would be a perfect fit for this club. But in a FA class so weak Nimmo is the 2nd best outfielder meaning he's going to get overpaid. The Sox are going to get less bang for their buck with this 100 million. The bright spot is the SS market, which seems to have several big names. It could mean getting Bogaerts for less than he wants to make the decision to let him go to FA a smart one or it could also mean upgrading with a guy who may be an upgrade in Correa or Turner. With the shift changes coming in 2023 up-the middle defense matters more than it has in decades and 2nd base is now going to be a premium defensive position again making Story a perfect 2nd baseman. With a Turner/Bogaerts/Correa addition the Sox may have an elite infield next year but a horrible outfield again. Maybe Nimmo wants to come here and sign in the 17.5-20 mil range which isn't horrible or the Sox make a trade.

 

It's the pitching that concerns me the most. There are some elite names at the top in Verlander, Rodon, and DeGrome but Jacob has serious health concerns as does Rodon who threw a career-high 178 innings last year after throwing 132 in 2021 which was the most he had thrown since he was 23 and he's going to be 30 next year. Verlander, there's no real knock against other than he will be 40 next year and he's probably going to get 2/80 3/120 somewhere. After that, there's a drop-off in the pitching market.

 

Blooms in a tough spot. If I didn't have to worry about my job I'd be looking to build this team up for 2024, but if I was in his position I'd be feeling as if 2023 has to be a year they make a playoff run or he gets canned.

 

Well said, but almost every major FA signing looks like or turns into an overpay or major overpay after year 2 or 3. We have to bite the bullet, at some point, and hope we choose the right guy to pounce on.

 

I'm wondering if contracts like the Story one is as high and long as we go. No more $210/7 deals like Price's. It's actually not a bad strategy, and it is working for the Astros, but the Astros have had a solid farm for over 5 years. We are just (maybe) coming to a point of expecting significant farm infusions, yearly..

[moonslav59]

They have around $95 million. That's after Bogey opting out.

 

In theory, we could go ...

 

$35M x 2 Verlander

$30M x 9 Correa

$24M x 6 Nimmo

$6M x 3 Fulmer

 

Of course, we won't. I doubt we even get one of those top 3 listed.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In theory, we could go ...

 

$35M x 2 Verlander

$30M x 9 Correa

$24M x 6 Nimmo

$6M x 3 Fulmer

 

Of course, we won't. I doubt we even get one of those top 3 listed.

 

 

Maybe it's the weak free agent class, but I just don't see Nimmo as an elite outfielder worthy of a superstar salary... $24M per? Is he really worth two Benintendis or two-and-a-half Kikes?

 

I'm all about guys getting fair market value, but if someone is willing to pay Nimmo that much, I don't think it will be Bloom. Not when someone like Rodon can maybe be had for that kind of contract. The Nimmo value makes taking a shot at Conforto even more palatable.

[mvp 78]

Love him or hate him, I think Bloom is going to make the offseason very interesting somehow.

 

It will be his legacy here. If it's a lost offseason, he's out.

[notin]

Maybe it's the weak free agent class, but I just don't see Nimmo as an elite outfielder worthy of a superstar salary... $24M per? Is he really worth two Benintendis or two-and-a-half Kikes?

 

I'm all about guys getting fair market value, but if someone is willing to pay Nimmo that much, I don't think it will be Bloom. Not when someone like Rodon can maybe be had for that kind of contract. The Nimmo value makes taking a shot at Conforto even more palatable.

 

 

The best value and fit will be Gallo. 2 years $25mill. Book it…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The best value and fit will be Gallo. 2 years $25mill. Book it…

 

I have to put this out there on the world wide web, at least for my own sanity:

 

All-or-nothing Gallo will really move the needle for Sox fans... to empty.

[Hugh2]

I have to put this out there on the world wide web, at least for my own sanity:

 

All-or-nothing Gallo will really move the needle for Sox fans... to empty.

 

Gallo is also a guy who may stand to benefit the most from eliminating the shift.

[notin]

Gallo is also a guy who may stand to benefit the most from eliminating the shift.

 

I also have more faith in his ability to defend RF at Fenway than any other available option…

[moonslav59]

Maybe it's the weak free agent class, but I just don't see Nimmo as an elite outfielder worthy of a superstar salary... $24M per? Is he really worth two Benintendis or two-and-a-half Kikes?

 

I'm all about guys getting fair market value, but if someone is willing to pay Nimmo that much, I don't think it will be Bloom. Not when someone like Rodon can maybe be had for that kind of contract. The Nimmo value makes taking a shot at Conforto even more palatable.

 

It might take $24M x 6 to get Nimmo, but I don't think he's worth it.

 

I really don't want Dugo in RF, but I like Beni's OBP. I'd rather have Beni at $12M/per + 2 RP'ers at $6M per over Nimmo at $24M/per. Yes.

[moonslav59]

Gallo is also a guy who may stand to benefit the most from eliminating the shift.

 

You guys are starting to change my views on Gallo. I'm not sure that's a good thing.

[Bellhorn04]

Gallo would be fine--as long as other more stimulating moves are also made.

[moonslav59]

Gallo would be fine--as long as other more stimulating moves are also made.

 

That's how I see it. We need to make 2-3 major additions (FA or trade), and 3-4 moderate ones- like Gallo or Beni for the OF, and a couple solid but maybe not spectacular RP'ers.

[moonslav59]

Report: Dodgers close to re-signing Kershaw- no surprise.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You guys are starting to change my views on Gallo. I'm not sure that's a good thing.

 

Every season the Yankee fans I know target one hated scapegoat they can blame for not winning it all that they want dumped off their team. Gallo was this year's winner by far. They'd love one more reason to make fun of Boston.

[Bellhorn04]

Every season the Yankee fans I know target one hated scapegoat they can blame for not winning it all that they want dumped off their team. Gallo was this year's winner by far. They'd love one more reason to make fun of Boston.

 

Screw them. Ex-Yankee Eovaldi did some very good things for us, and did some of them against the Yankees.

 

Whitlock and Refsnyder are former Yankee properties who have done well for us so far too.

[Hugh2]

It might take $24M x 6 to get Nimmo, but I don't think he's worth it.

 

I really don't want Dugo in RF, but I like Beni's OBP. I'd rather have Beni at $12M/per + 2 RP'ers at $6M per over Nimmo at $24M/per. Yes.

 

I think the ship has sailed on AB, I don’t he ages very well at all. No power and when the glove and speed go down he will be a 4th outfielder sooner than later. Nimmo is the high OBP guy who can lead off the Sox have been missing with some pop and also add good defense in CF/RF.

 

Mlb trade rumors projects him to sign for 110/5. I’ll bite

[moonslav59]

I think the ship has sailed on AB, I don’t he ages very well at all. No power and when the glove and speed go down he will be a 4th outfielder sooner than later. Nimmo is the high OBP guy who can lead off the Sox have been missing with some pop and also add good defense in CF/RF.

 

Mlb trade rumors projects him to sign for 110/5. I’ll bite

 

I'd go $110/5, but I doubt that gets him away from the Mets. $115 or 120/5 might, or $132/6.

 

I'm thinking Nimmo or Swanson might be the best we can expect for everyday player signings. I'd be happy with both, but look what happened with Baez & Suzuki, last year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd go $110/5, but I doubt that gets him away from the Mets. $115 or 120/5 might, or $132/6.

 

I'm thinking Nimmo or Swanson might be the best we can expect for everyday player signings. I'd be happy with both, but look what happened with Baez & Suzuki, last year.

 

And Story.

[Hugh2]

And Story.

 

Of the three, my money is on Story bouncing back the best.