2023 Free Agents

[notin]

Lugo is not lights-out, but sometimes lights-flickering (three '22 Mets postseason games: 2 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K). At least he's a big league reliever...

 

Re. Heaney: a last-place rotation doesn't really need another #5 starter. I'd rather bring back Wacha or Eovaldi; they've both proven they can pitch in Boston, and can't cost that much more.

 

If Bloom signs Heaney, it'd better be at the same press conference that introduces Chris Bassitt.

 

I couldn’t be less wild about Heaney, but he fits too much into the “talented but always hurt” profile that the Sox have had going around for years now.

 

I suppose signing Heaney is tolerable if you’re not counting on him. Maybe Sale + Paxton + Heaney = 1 good SP?

 

Or maybe this is just some horseshit rumor, the type we will be inundated with over the next two months and over 99% of which were never based on anything more than some blogger’s imagination..

[Hugh2]

I don’t like Houck as a starter although his career ERA in that role is like 3.68-ish. He’s had some success. But expecting 150 IP from him is probably insane at this point. I’d rather see Hill back…

 

the second time through the order ops+ against is high, the third time it's REALLY high. Houck stuff is really good, but with only two pitches most batters have him figured out the 3rd time through if not the 2nd.

 

He'd actually be fine as a 4th 5th type in todays game, but this rotation has a TON of 4th and 5th guys already. I think hi starting is a backup plan depending on how the offseason looks, if he's starting with Whitlock it means they didn't add anyone or only one guy. With that in mind, and the need for both starting and relief pitching, I certainly hope Houck is in the pen next year.

[Hugh2]

Do they need someone to replace Wacha and Hill on the IL?

 

WhTs the logic here? “We need someone who makes Paxton look healthy by comparison.”

 

Bloom didn't do too bad with Wacha last year so maybe he's on to something with Heaney.

 

Lugo the last two years with NY pitched 111 innings with a 3.56 ERA 1.22 WHIP and 10 K/9 That would be pretty nice in our pen.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I couldn’t be less wild about Heaney, but he fits too much into the “talented but always hurt” profile that the Sox have had going around for years now.

 

I suppose signing Heaney is tolerable if you’re not counting on him. Maybe Sale + Paxton + Heaney = 1 good SP?

 

Or maybe this is just some horseshit rumor, the type we will be inundated with over the next two months and over 99% of which were never based on anything more than some blogger’s imagination..

 

A Heaney signing would just be a continuation of Bloom's low-risk, bungee-cord, we're-bored acquisitions (the kind of move some in the industry think he can't survive another winter doing).

 

But true fans will know we're really in trouble when rumors start circulating about star players and the Red Sox' "interest."

 

Then it will be time to take a long winter's nap.

[Hugh2]

With 80 million to spend you still have to fill out the roster when the majority of that is going to Bogey/ SP1? Is Heaney really a bad signing if they are also signing....for example, DeGrome?

[moonslav59]

With 80 million to spend you still have to fill out the roster when the majority of that is going to Bogey/ SP1? Is Heaney really a bad signing if they are also signing....for example, DeGrome?

 

It might be closer to $90M, and instead of 8-12 slots needing help, like the past 3 winters, we might get by with 4-6 significant additions.

[moonslav59]

the second time through the order ops+ against is high, the third time it's REALLY high. Houck stuff is really good, but with only two pitches most batters have him figured out the 3rd time through if not the 2nd.

 

He'd actually be fine as a 4th 5th type in todays game, but this rotation has a TON of 4th and 5th guys already. I think hi starting is a backup plan depending on how the offseason looks, if he's starting with Whitlock it means they didn't add anyone or only one guy. With that in mind, and the need for both starting and relief pitching, I certainly hope Houck is in the pen next year.

 

Career numbers (not very big sample sizes)

 

Whitlock as SP'er OPS Against

.587 1st PA (81 PAs)

.901 2nd PA (72 PAs)

.573 3rd PA (11 PAs)

(As RP: .615 first PA (425 PAs) & .361 second PA (20 PAs)

 

Houck as SP

.504 1st PA (180 PAs)

.647 2nd PA (164)

1.017 3rd (30)

(as RP: .588 in 1st PA (195) and .423 in 2nd (25)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

With 80 million to spend you still have to fill out the roster when the majority of that is going to Bogey/ SP1? Is Heaney really a bad signing if they are also signing....for example, DeGrome?

 

It is for me, because by now I know better than to count on any injured or rehabbing Sox projected for the '23 starting rotation.

 

I will take anything I can get as a bonus from Sale/Paxton/Whitlock/Houck etc., but the last thing Boston needs is another pitcher trying to make a comeback.

 

Want a free agent arm from the Dodgers? Sign Tyler Anderson, who won 15 games last season. Heaney was only durable enough to go 4-4 for a club that won 111 regular season games.

 

If the Sox lose Wacha and Eovaldi, they realistically need to add three new starters to the rotation to sniff respectability. I'm not opposed to deGrom, but he's also damaged goods, so I'd target Bassitt and Anderson, too. Or Rodon. There's a lot of dough coming off the books, and even more when Bogaerts signs elsewhere.

[moonslav59]

It is for me, because by now I know better than to count on any injured or rehabbing Sox projected for the '23 starting rotation.

 

I will take anything I can get as a bonus from Sale/Paxton/Whitlock/Houck etc., but the last thing Boston needs is another pitcher trying to make a comeback.

 

Want a free agent arm from the Dodgers? Sign Tyler Anderson, who won 15 games last season. Heaney was only durable enough to go 4-4 for a club that won 111 regular season games.

 

If the Sox lose Wacha and Eovaldi, they realistically need to add three new starters to the rotation to sniff respectability. I'm not opposed to deGrom, but he's also damaged goods, so I'd target Bassitt and Anderson, too. Or Rodon. There's a lot of dough coming off the books, and even more when Bogaerts signs elsewhere.

 

LAD might offer T Anderson a QO.

[Hugh2]

Career numbers (not very big sample sizes)

 

Whitlock as SP'er OPS Against

.587 1st PA (81 PAs)

.901 2nd PA (72 PAs)

.573 3rd PA (11 PAs)

(As RP: .615 first PA (425 PAs) & .361 second PA (20 PAs)

 

Houck as SP

.504 1st PA (180 PAs)

.647 2nd PA (164)

1.017 3rd (30)

(as RP: .588 in 1st PA (195) and .423 in 2nd (25)

 

 

They were also throwing WHitlock out there injured. Both are a small sample size but Houcks is still has almost 3 times as many IP as a starter. I'd wager on Whitlock being the better starter in 2023.

[Hugh2]

It is for me, because by now I know better than to count on any injured or rehabbing Sox projected for the '23 starting rotation.

 

I will take anything I can get as a bonus from Sale/Paxton/Whitlock/Houck etc., but the last thing Boston needs is another pitcher trying to make a comeback.

 

Want a free agent arm from the Dodgers? Sign Tyler Anderson, who won 15 games last season. Heaney was only durable enough to go 4-4 for a club that won 111 regular season games.

 

If the Sox lose Wacha and Eovaldi, they realistically need to add three new starters to the rotation to sniff respectability. I'm not opposed to deGrom, but he's also damaged goods, so I'd target Bassitt and Anderson, too. Or Rodon. There's a lot of dough coming off the books, and even more when Bogaerts signs elsewhere.

 

I highly doubt they're looking at him to be a #2 or #3 guy. Maybe even a bullpen role or swingman if he'd be up to it. I'm not in love with him either but I'm sure they're just doing their due dilligence and checking in with a lot of guys.

[moonslav59]

They were also throwing WHitlock out there injured. Both are a small sample size but Houcks is still has almost 3 times as many IP as a starter. I'd wager on Whitlock being the better starter in 2023.

 

Me, too.

 

I like Houck in the pen.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I highly doubt they're looking at him to be a #2 or #3 guy. Maybe even a bullpen role or swingman if he'd be up to it. I'm not in love with him either but I'm sure they're just doing their due dilligence and checking in with a lot of guys.

 

I know. But there are only so many #1 and #2 free agents available before we have to start using prospect capital in trades. I'm not opposed to the Sox using both the budget and farm to improve the rotation, because it's the key back to respectability.

 

Bello and Pivetta are the only two projected starters who are entirely healthy, and most people rate each as a #4 or #5 (though Bello's stuff is as good as anyone else's). Bloom can stockpile as many #5s as he wants, just so long as he doesn't skimp on top quality, too.

 

There's always the chance in a rebuild that a front office adds to its roster just to field a big league team, and then bills it as improvement. Depth is definitely essential, but a staff deep in #5s is destined for the depths of the division.

[notin]

I know. But there are only so many #1 and #2 free agents available before we have to start using prospect capital in trades. I'm not opposed to the Sox using both the budget and farm to improve the rotation, because it's the key back to respectability.

 

Bello and Pivetta are the only two projected starters who are entirely healthy, and most people rate each as a #4 or #5 (though Bello's stuff is as good as anyone else's). Bloom can stockpile as many #5s as he wants, just so long as he doesn't skimp on top quality, too.

 

There's always the chance in a rebuild that a front office adds to its roster just to field a big league team, and then bills it as improvement. Depth is definitely essential, but a staff deep in #5s is destined for the depths of the division.

 

But right now, we’re operating on the assumption that because Heaney was mentioned, he’s the top and possibly only target. This might be a tad premature. For all we know, Heaney might get a minor league contract…

[Hugh2]

I know. But there are only so many #1 and #2 free agents available before we have to start using prospect capital in trades. I'm not opposed to the Sox using both the budget and farm to improve the rotation, because it's the key back to respectability.

 

Bello and Pivetta are the only two projected starters who are entirely healthy, and most people rate each as a #4 or #5 (though Bello's stuff is as good as anyone else's). Bloom can stockpile as many #5s as he wants, just so long as he doesn't skimp on top quality, too.

 

There's always the chance in a rebuild that a front office adds to its roster just to field a big league team, and then bills it as improvement. Depth is definitely essential, but a staff deep in #5s is destined for the depths of the division.

 

I disagree with the last part of your statement. It's true when you have no top half. The Sox had no real #1 #2 this year. They had a few middling starters who even then missed time and a bunch of fringey #5 types. A strong back end and plenty of depth looks a hell of a lot better if you had a healthy Chris Sale leading this rotation. That ends up improving your bullpen too when someone becomes an odd man out.

[moonslav59]

I know. But there are only so many #1 and #2 free agents available before we have to start using prospect capital in trades. I'm not opposed to the Sox using both the budget and farm to improve the rotation, because it's the key back to respectability.

 

Bello and Pivetta are the only two projected starters who are entirely healthy, and most people rate each as a #4 or #5 (though Bello's stuff is as good as anyone else's). Bloom can stockpile as many #5s as he wants, just so long as he doesn't skimp on top quality, too.

 

There's always the chance in a rebuild that a front office adds to its roster just to field a big league team, and then bills it as improvement. Depth is definitely essential, but a staff deep in #5s is destined for the depths of the division.

 

I totally agree, and trying to build a rotation by striking gold with #5 starters or long shots like Wacha and Martin perez with the Rangers, this season is not a strategy I support. Building a winning rotation almost always starts by adding solid #1 or #2 types, which pushes Sale and Whitlock to #3-4 starters and Bello and Pivetta to #4-5 or 6 starters.

 

I'm not sure management is ready to trade top prospects to acquire an ace, but I'm thinking they may need to, this winter or next.

[notin]

I totally agree, and trying to build a rotation by striking gold with #5 starters or long shots like Wacha and Martin perez with the Rangers, this season is not a strategy I support. Building a winning rotation almost always starts by adding solid #1 or #2 types, which pushes Sale and Whitlock to #3-4 starters and Bello and Pivetta to #4-5 or 6 starters.

 

I'm not sure management is ready to trade top prospects to acquire an ace, but I'm thinking they may need to, this winter or next.

 

I don’t think the Sox are going to push Sale down to the #3 spot in the rotation. I only expect 1 starter to be added to the active roster (plus a slew of players on MiLB deals),. I’d prefer two starters so that Whitlock is pushed back into the bullpen…

[jad]

I'm sure there are players who are good value out there. You can get great deals on, say, guys who fight other players for no reason, guys who pleasure themselves in public, or say guys who may (or may not!) like to take photos of underage girls getting raped in hotel rooms. That's where the real value is.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Free agents ineligible for Qualifying Offers... any of these guys would be much more appealing to Bloom and his luxurious taxpaying ilk (my bold-faced choices aren't that bold...).

 

José Abreu (White Sox), Brandon Belt (Giants), Carlos Correa (Twins), Nelson Cruz (Nationals), Zack Greinke (Royals), Kenley Jansen (Braves), Craig Kimbrel (Dodgers), AJ Pollock (White Sox), David Robertson (Phillies), Carlos Santana (Mariners), Will Smith (Astros), Noah Syndergaard (Phillies), Justin Verlander (Astros).

 

Elvis Andrus (White Sox), Josh Bell (Padres), Andrew Benintendi (Yankees), Brandon Drury (Padres), Joey Gallo (Dodgers), Trey Mancini (Astros), David Peralta (Rays), Tommy Pham (Red Sox), José Quintana (Cardinals), Taylor Rogers (Brewers), Christian Vázquez (Astros)

 

The Tallstop question: does Bloom settle for Andrus as a placeholder or go all building block on Correa?

[Bellhorn04]

Free agents ineligible for Qualifying Offers... any of these guys would be much more appealing to Bloom and his luxurious taxpaying ilk (my bold-faced choices aren't that bold...).

 

José Abreu (White Sox), Brandon Belt (Giants), Carlos Correa (Twins), Nelson Cruz (Nationals), Zack Greinke (Royals), Kenley Jansen (Braves), Craig Kimbrel (Dodgers), AJ Pollock (White Sox), David Robertson (Phillies), Carlos Santana (Mariners), Will Smith (Astros), Noah Syndergaard (Phillies), Justin Verlander (Astros).

 

Elvis Andrus (White Sox), Josh Bell (Padres), Andrew Benintendi (Yankees), Brandon Drury (Padres), Joey Gallo (Dodgers), Trey Mancini (Astros), David Peralta (Rays), Tommy Pham (Red Sox), José Quintana (Cardinals), Taylor Rogers (Brewers), Christian Vázquez (Astros)

 

The Tallstop question: does Bloom settle for Andrus as a placeholder or go all building block on Correa?

 

Placeholder makes sense to me. I think they have pretty high hopes for Mayer.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think the Sox are going to push Sale down to the #3 spot in the rotation. I only expect 1 starter to be added to the active roster (plus a slew of players on MiLB deals),. I’d prefer two starters so that Whitlock is pushed back into the bullpen…

 

It's my wish, not my prediction.

 

My guess is, we add 2 decent starters in hopes we find the next Wachas.

[moonslav59]

The Tallstop question: does Bloom settle for Andrus as a placeholder or go all building block on Correa?

 

Maybe Simmons?

 

Can Segura still play SS?

[notin]

Placeholder makes sense to me. I think they have pretty high hopes for Mayer.

 

Adalberto Mondesi is likely available, as he ranks second even in the very small two member club of Royals Shortstops Whose Dads Were Major Leaguers.

[moonslav59]

If going cheap placeholder at SS meant we could sign Judge, Rodon, Montero and Fulmer, would that satisfy most fans?

[notin]

If going cheap placeholder at SS meant we could sign Judge, Rodon, Montero and Fulmer, would that satisfy most fans?

 

MLBTR posted their predictions for the top 50.

 

They no longer list a single prediction and instead each writer has one for each free agent.

 

The following had two or more writers choose Boston for their destination:

 

Kodai Senga, Nathan Eovaldi, Taylor Rogers, Michael Conforto. No shortstops.

 

Agree with any?

[moonslav59]

MLBTR posted their predictions for the top 50.

 

They no longer list a single prediction and instead each writer has one for each free agent.

 

The following had two or more writers choose Boston for their destination:

 

Kodai Senga, Nathan Eovaldi, Taylor Rogers, Michael Conforto. No shortstops.

 

Agree with any?

 

Maybe Rogers.

 

Don't know much about Senga.

 

No way will those 4 will draw fans to the park or TV.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLBTR posted their predictions for the top 50.

 

They no longer list a single prediction and instead each writer has one for each free agent.

 

The following had two or more writers choose Boston for their destination:

 

Kodai Senga, Nathan Eovaldi, Taylor Rogers, Michael Conforto. No shortstops.

 

Agree with any?

 

In on the pitchers. I'm already on record for wanting Eovaldi back, and Rogers as a bounce-back closer (All-Star just two years ago). Senga throws 101 mph.

 

Conforto is only intriguing. Can he return to a 25 homer, .350 OBP guy? He's been a negative dWAR outfielder the past six seasons in a row.

 

As I've said before: at this point in the Bloom Era, Red Sox fans just deserve more than hoping for yet another rehabbing ballplayer to make a comeback contribution...

[moonslav59]

 

As I've said before: at this point in the Bloom Era, Red Sox fans just deserve more than hoping for yet another rehabbing ballplayer to make a comeback contribution...

 

Up until now, I don't think the foundation was strong enough to build a winner with a few significant FA signings or trades, but starting at the 2019 deadline up to the Story signing, that's about all we have seen.

 

I'm not sure 2023 will be the "pounce" season, but there is no reason not to make at least a couple moves that raise heads and open eyes. They can be m oves that brighten beyond 2023, and really, they should (must IMO.)

 

Conforto on a one year deal to bridge to Rafaela? Sorry, we lose Kike, too, so we need a longer term solution for RF.

 

No SS? Really? Are we really going to sign a one year bridge to Mayer, assuming he's ready by 2024? I'd be okay going short term at one of these two slots, if we go very big at the other- like maybe Judge in RF or Correa at SS. I'd love to see Swanson & Nimmo, but I doubt we even get one.

 

We'll see what happens, but MLBTRs bummed me out.

[Bellhorn04]

In on the pitchers. I'm already on record for wanting Eovaldi back, and Rogers as a bounce-back closer (All-Star just two years ago). Senga throws 101 mph.

 

Conforto is only intriguing. Can he return to a 25 homer, .350 OBP guy? He's been a negative dWAR outfielder the past six seasons in a row.

 

As I've said before: at this point in the Bloom Era, Red Sox fans just deserve more than hoping for yet another rehabbing ballplayer to make a comeback contribution...

 

Will they make Eovaldi a feel-good story one more time?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Up until now, I don't think the foundation was strong enough to build a winner with a few significant FA signings or trades, but starting at the 2019 deadline up to the Story signing, that's about all we have seen.

 

I'm not sure 2023 will be the "pounce" season, but there is no reason not to make at least a couple moves that raise heads and open eyes. They can be m oves that brighten beyond 2023, and really, they should (must IMO.)

 

Conforto on a one year deal to bridge to Rafaela? Sorry, we lose Kike, too, so we need a longer term solution for RF.

 

No SS? Really? Are we really going to sign a one year bridge to Mayer, assuming he's ready by 2024? I'd be okay going short term at one of these two slots, if we go very big at the other- like maybe Judge in RF or Correa at SS. I'd love to see Swanson & Nimmo, but I doubt we even get one.

 

We'll see what happens, but MLBTRs bummed me out.

 

The Red Sox choose not to resign Bogaerts nor Devers, and then don't reinvest this offseason in bonafide star baseball players...

 

... based on everything we know about Bloom -- and not Henry, who hired him -- evaluate the above statement with the more likely adjective: possible or probable.