Kike Hernandez signs 1 year extension

[Hugh2]

At this point in the contract, I'm not sure the money actually matters. What matters is the product that you put on the field. Sale just hasn't been able to lace them up every 5 days. Could he provide more benefit in a bulk relief role? Swap him with Whitlock?

 

If he's healthy he provides 1000000% more value as a starter. His latest injury seems to be more bad luck than anything, if his elbow is healthy and the velocity is there, he's starting.

[Hugh2]

They'd take it, but isn't that just wasting Henry's money when you could spend it on other players? Why overpay Eovaldi and Wacha?

 

I get not signing Nate to one, I think we'd be happy if Wacha took it. Could really use him in the rotation next year. Regardless, 1 year deals don't prevent them from signing other guys. In other words, guys accepting QO's aren't preventing them from resigning Bogaerts or extending Devers.

[moonslav59]

They'd take it, but isn't that just wasting Henry's money when you could spend it on other players? Why overpay Eovaldi and Wacha?

 

1. 1 year deals are usually overpays.

2. 2024 will be year 3 of the lux tax, so 1 year deals would facilitate a reset

3. Both have a serious chance at earning $18M in 2023. (I's say close to more than 50%.)

[Hugh2]

If you're losing both Eovaldi/Wacha, and you don't think Sale can stay healthy to stay in the roation or shouldn't what is the rotation next year???

 

Pivetta

Paxton

Bello

Winckowski

Crawford

 

You mine as well raise up the white flags now. Do we even know Paxton can stay healthy? I have zero confidence in Crawford/Winkowski being MLB starters, they just aren't that good. I think Crawford can be a swingman. I think Bello could be good, but is he going to be good in 2023? or is he going to struggle for a year or two before he's an established MLB starter? That rotation could EASILY be disastrous.

 

That rotation doesn't need one guy, or even two guys, but three guys added to it at least. Even if Sale is healthy you still need a few guys, If you're signing a Rodon/Scherzer/Verlander/Degrome all those guys are going to cost a lot more than a QO and come with multiple years, especially the younger of the bunch. So if money is the concern it's going to cost even a lot more to fix the rotation outside of a QO.

 

There is of course the trade market, but if you're buying two to three starters there you are effectively selling off your entire farm.

[mvp 78]

That could be disastrous as well. Maybe my ideal of trading Pivetta is dumb, but at least it's contingent on adding another (better pitcher). The better argument here may be they should be doing that regardless. I think that's the main take away here.

 

I don't have anything against the idea of trading Pivetta.

 

I think the QO's to Eovaldi/Wacha are an open conversation and not really settled one way or another.

 

I wish I felt more certain about what would happen with Sale, but his the epitome of high ceiling/low floor guy. He could theoretically come back and get a CY or just never make another appearance. It's really hard to say.

 

I have no real idea what Bloom thinks his rotation will be next season. If I had to wager a guess right now (in no particular order):

Sale

Stripling

Pivetta

Whitlock

Paxton

 

Depth would be Bello/Mata/Winckowski(pen)/Crawford(pen)

[Hugh2]

I don't have anything against the idea of trading Pivetta.

 

I think the QO's to Eovaldi/Wacha are an open conversation and not really settled one way or another.

 

I wish I felt more certain about what would happen with Sale, but his the epitome of high ceiling/low floor guy. He could theoretically come back and get a CY or just never make another appearance. It's really hard to say.

 

I have no real idea what Bloom thinks his rotation will be next season. If I had to wager a guess right now (in no particular order):

Sale

Stripling

Pivetta

Whitlock

Paxton

 

Depth would be Bello/Mata/Winckowski(pen)/Crawford(pen)

 

Yeah, there's no easy fix here, to some extent fixing the rotation is going to have to be dependant a little bit of health and luck. With me the thing about Sale is his injury history is legit, but more recently seems to be fluky....so is the arm ok? if the arm is ok then I have some level of confidence that he should come back fine next year. But I want an ACE added to the rotation because you can't count on that. If Sale does???? then you have a WS caliber 1-2 punch in your rotation.

[mvp 78]

1. 1 year deals are usually overpays.

2. 2024 will be year 3 of the lux tax, so 1 year deals would facilitate a reset

3. Both have a serious chance at earning $18M in 2023. (I's say close to more than 50%.)

 

Eovaldi is overpaid at 17AAV right now.

 

Wacha has a 3.90 xFIP with a career low 242 BABIP and career high 81.7 LOB%. His xERA is 1.50 runs higher than his ERA. He has looked ok, but a lot of it is due to luck. Too bad he's doing it on a s***** Sox team. On the open market, he's not getting 18M. No way.

[Hugh2]

Eovaldi is overpaid at 17AAV right now.

 

Wacha has a 3.90 xFIP with a career low 242 BABIP and career high 81.7 LOB%. His xERA is 1.50 runs higher than his ERA. He has looked ok, but a lot of it is due to luck. Too bad he's doing it on a s***** Sox team. On the open market, he's not getting 18M. No way.

 

If you are ok with the physicals, maybe Nate is the guy.

[Hugh2]

I don't have anything against the idea of trading Pivetta.

 

I think the QO's to Eovaldi/Wacha are an open conversation and not really settled one way or another.

 

I wish I felt more certain about what would happen with Sale, but his the epitome of high ceiling/low floor guy. He could theoretically come back and get a CY or just never make another appearance. It's really hard to say.

 

I have no real idea what Bloom thinks his rotation will be next season. If I had to wager a guess right now (in no particular order):

Sale

Stripling

Pivetta

Whitlock

Paxton

 

Depth would be Bello/Mata/Winckowski(pen)/Crawford(pen)

 

That's not a very good rotation, it's ok rotation if Paxton performs and Sale comes back strong. Can both those things happen? maybe, but even then it leaves me wanting more.

 

To be fair, the rotation isn't very good now either.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, there's no easy fix here, to some extent fixing the rotation is going to have to be dependant a little bit of health and luck. With me the thing about Sale is his injury history is legit, but more recently seems to be fluky....so is the arm ok? if the arm is ok then I have some level of confidence that he should come back fine next year. But I want an ACE added to the rotation because you can't count on that. If Sale does???? then you have a WS caliber 1-2 punch in your rotation.

 

What if Bloom spells ace "Chris Bassitt"? I'm not sure he is willing to add deGrom or Rodon.

[mvp 78]

That's not a very good rotation, it's ok rotation if Paxton performs and Sale comes back strong. Can both those things happen? maybe, but even then it leaves me wanting more.

 

To be fair, the rotation isn't very good now either.

 

I'm not saying it's a good rotation. Maybe he has something better planned? It seems similar to rotations he has planned in the past? It worked in 2021, but not this year.

[Hugh2]

What if Bloom spells ace "Chris Bassitt"? I'm not sure he is willing to add deGrom or Rodon.

 

I don't think he is either. And my expectations are probably too high for how good the rotation should be next year.

[mvp 78]

If you are ok with the physicals, maybe Nate is the guy.

 

For pure ceiling potential, Nate is far superior to Wacha in most every way except age.

[moonslav59]

I get not signing Nate to one, I think we'd be happy if Wacha took it. Could really use him in the rotation next year. Regardless, 1 year deals don't prevent them from signing other guys. In other words, guys accepting QO's aren't preventing them from resigning Bogaerts or extending Devers.

 

I'd offer 1 to Wacha and not Nate.

[moonslav59]

That's not a very good rotation, it's ok rotation if Paxton performs and Sale comes back strong. Can both those things happen? maybe, but even then it leaves me wanting more.

 

To be fair, the rotation isn't very good now either.

 

If the Sox are counting on Sale AND Paxton, we are doomed.

 

I'm thinking, if they plan on both as one 2/3 Starter type, that might be too much to ask, as well, but I think that has to be how they have to see it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Wacha will get multi-year offers because he's not an ace; he'll be an attractive alternative to teams that don't want to spend $20+ million AAV on a starter. But for a guy over 30 with recent injury history, taking a QO of $18M for one year instead of say, accepting double that for three, defies logic. Wacha may never again have the earning power he has this winter, which will set up him and his family for life. Turn down $35 to $40 million dollars when another nagging injury could appear at any time? This is not some postadolescent stud like Soto or Tatis...

 

Eovaldi is in a similar situation, but with a worse injury history. Someone is bound to still offer him a two-year deal. If Bloom is only offering QOs, it may affect the number of suitors because of clubs averse to losing a draft pick, but they're both good enough to sign multi-years somewhere...

 

... which leaves Boston in need of three new starting pitchers for next year, as stated in today's Boston Globe (or in a previous post here last week: in search of #1, #2, #3, to go with Bello and Pivetta).

[moonslav59]

Wacha will get multi-year offers because he's not an ace; he'll be an attractive alternative to teams that don't want to spend $20+ million AAV on a starter. But for a guy over 30 with recent injury history, taking a QO of $18M for one year instead of say, accepting double that for three, defies logic. Wacha may never again have the earning power he has this winter, which will set up him and his family for life. Turn down $35 to $40 million dollars when another nagging injury could appear at any time? This is not some postadolescent stud like Soto or Tatis...

 

Eovaldi is in a similar situation, but with a worse injury history. Someone is bound to still offer him a two-year deal. If Bloom is only offering QOs, it may affect the number of suitors because of clubs averse to losing a draft pick, but they're both good enough to sign multi-years somewhere...

 

... which leaves Boston in need of three new starting pitchers for next year, as stated in today's Boston Globe (or in a previous post here last week: in search of #1, #2, #3, to go with Bello and Pivetta).

 

Wacha has had other very good year- yes, most were many years ago, but these guys believe in themselves. Think of what he might make, if he has 2 really good years in a row.

 

I get your point, and you may be right, but many players will take $18M/1 over $40M 3. Yes, he's not young, but he's not 35, either.

 

I think he takes the $18M QO.

[Hugh2]

Wacha has had other very good year- yes, most were many years ago, but these guys believe in themselves. Think of what he might make, if he has 2 really good years in a row.

 

I get your point, and you may be right, but many players will take $18M/1 over $40M 3. Yes, he's not young, but he's not 35, either.

 

I think he takes the $18M QO.

 

Why would Wacha take 18 million when 36-45 will be on the table for him? He might never see money like that again. He rejects a QO, and that nets you pick if you don’t resign him.

[Hugh2]

Steve Matz gets 4/44

Kikuchi gets 3/36

 

If a players of that caliber gets that kind of money do we really think something like that if not more will be there for both Nate and Wacha?

 

Both should a QO, and if one accepts…great. We need a bunch of starters anyways.

[Hugh2]

Wacha is old enough to where he might not ever see money like that again if he has a down season or gets injured. If he has a down season, he needs another to prove himself again.

 

He’s turning down a QO, there’s about a 90% chance he does.

[Bellhorn04]

Steve Matz gets 4/44

Kikuchi gets 3/36

 

If a players of that caliber gets that kind of money do we really think something like that if not more will be there for both Nate and Wacha?

 

Both should a QO, and if one accepts…great. We need a bunch of starters anyways.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Wacha signs an extension with the Sox and soon.

 

Nate I'm not sure, he had a bad year both health- and performance-wise.

[moonslav59]

Why would Wacha take 18 million when 36-45 will be on the table for him? He might never see money like that again. He rejects a QO, and that nets you pick if you don’t resign him.

 

I've already answered this, and that's assuming he thinks he can get a $40M/3 offer.

 

Most pitchers have a very high belief in themselves. They would not have made it this far without that. Yes, they listen to their agents- well, most of them do, but if he puts up another good year, he can make much more next winter.

 

Think of it this way, assume he can get a $40M/3 offer. What you are basically saying is he has to think he can't get a $13M/2 offer after 2023's season at $18M is over. Hell, he made $7M/1 after a few pretty "off years" in a row.

[moonslav59]

Wacha is old enough to where he might not ever see money like that again if he has a down season or gets injured. If he has a down season, he needs another to prove himself again.

 

He’s turning down a QO, there’s about a 90% chance he does.

 

It's funny how some don't even want us to offer him one.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't be surprised if Wacha signs an extension with the Sox and soon.

 

 

I was thinking the same thing.

 

The QO- taken- would help to reset, in 2024, but if Wacha is the real deal, now, keeping him makes a lot of sense.

 

I'm not even sure about offering Nate a QO, but apparently many feel it's a 100% certain. (I'm fine with it, but I'd rather we spend elsewhere.)

 

$10M Kike

$18M Wacha

$18M Nate

 

That's $46M out of the $70-80 I think we will have to spend, and we haven't done anything to change the team, and we still need a SS, DH, (maybe RF) P, P, P...

[Hugh2]

I've already answered this, and that's assuming he thinks he can get a $40M/3 offer.

 

Most pitchers have a very high belief in themselves. They would not have made it this far without that. Yes, they listen to their agents- well, most of them do, but if he puts up another good year, he can make much more next winter.

 

Think of it this way, assume he can get a $40M/3 offer. What you are basically saying is he has to think he can't get a $13M/2 offer after 2023's season at $18M is over. Hell, he made $7M/1 after a few pretty "off years" in a row.

 

Worse pitchers are getting that, why wouldn’t he?

[Hugh2]

I've already answered this, and that's assuming he thinks he can get a $40M/3 offer.

 

Most pitchers have a very high belief in themselves. They would not have made it this far without that. Yes, they listen to their agents- well, most of them do, but if he puts up another good year, he can make much more next winter.

 

Think of it this way, assume he can get a $40M/3 offer. What you are basically saying is he has to think he can't get a $13M/2 offer after 2023's season at $18M is over. Hell, he made $7M/1 after a few pretty "off years" in a row.

 

Players almost ALWAYS go for the more guaranteed money. The vast majority of the time.

 

Also if the Sox use the QO as a precursor to sign Nate or Wacha, they might be able to get them for 2-3 years at a LAAV

[Bellhorn04]

I was thinking the same thing.

 

The QO- taken- would help to reset, in 2024, but if Wacha is the real deal, now, keeping him makes a lot of sense.

 

I'm not even sure about offering Nate a QO, but apparently many feel it's a 100% certain. (I'm fine with it, but I'd rather we spend elsewhere.)

 

$10M Kike

$18M Wacha

$18M Nate

 

That's $46M out of the $70-80 I think we will have to spend, and we haven't done anything to change the team, and we still need a SS, DH, (maybe RF) P, P, P...

 

My guess is no QO for Nate and a big push for Wacha.

[Bellhorn04]

Players almost ALWAYS go for the more guaranteed money. The vast majority of the time.

 

True. It was almost a shocker when Gausman and Stroman both accepted QO's prior to 2021.

[moonslav59]

Players almost ALWAYS go for the more guaranteed money. The vast majority of the time.

 

Also if the Sox use the QO as a precursor to sign Nate or Wacha, they might be able to get them for 2-3 years at a LAAV

 

How many Wacha types get offered a QO and how many

say no?

[notin]

My guess is no QO for Nate and a big push for Wacha.

 

That’s my hope, but not my guess…