A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

At 2B?

 

Plus, we have to move Arroyo to SS, if Kike gets hurt or needs a rest. You really want a middle IF of Arroyo at SS and Dalbec at 2B for more than 1 game?

 

Dalbec is on the 40 man. Goodrum isn’t.

 

Given the Sox abundance of MI players on the 40 man roster, are they going to replace Story with Niko Goodrum? The Sox have 5 healthy MI players on the 40 man In Hernandez, Arroyo, Valdez, Hamilton, and Rafaela. Plus a couple others with MI experience in Wong and Refsnyder. Do they need more than 7 middle infielders? And that’s not counting Mondesi, who might not be out all that long…

[moonslav59]

Not having a complete roster was the main reason -- most fans here at least agreed with that last year: not having a good pen... or a right-handed hitting outfielder who could hit and catch all season... or any first baseman who could do either for the first five months... or a starting rotation young enough to stay healthy enough to provide 128 innings pitched (besides Pivetta).

 

But if this year's bullpen does well, the only way we'll improve is if the new old starting pitchers, the overhauled offense, and the makeshift no-shift D give them as many leads as the boys of Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill did.

 

One major issue with our depth was that so many SP'ers all got hurt at the same time. I think Kike and Story missed the same time, a lot, so it messed up the depth charts, in that sense.

 

Surely, depth was a major reason, too, and in many ways, I feel that was the first issue Bloom addressed, when he took over- building up the bottom of the 40 and farm depth. It's hard to build a rotation of 12 guys on a tight budget.

[Bellhorn04]

IMO, it was way out in front of any other weak area, in terms of comments and criticism, and for good reason.

 

Some were very specific about not having a closer or not defining one and sticking with him.

 

Note" I said "main reason" not only reason.

 

I get what you're saying. The thing about blowing late leads the way the 2022 team did is that it really seems to pinpoint closer as a specific weakness.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec is on the 40 man. Goodrum isn’t.

 

Yes, I mentioned that, but the talk was about who takes Story's slot on the 40, and perhaps the same guy on the 26.

 

We need MI depth, especially if Mondesi starts the season on the bench or IL.

[moonslav59]

I get what you're saying. The thing about blowing late leads the way the 2022 team did is that it really seems to pinpoint closer as a specific weakness.

 

My post did make it sound like I was calling out those who really bashed our pen (and GM for allowing it to happen.) The pen did suck.

 

Having to move Houck and then Whitlock really hurt.

 

The piggy back idea sucked.

 

Not just choosing a guy to be the closer was a mistake. I thought Whitlock or Houck might have done fine in that tradition role.

 

We'll never know.

 

I think having a much stronger pen should help a lot. With pens, it's always a bit of a dice role, anyway.

 

Was the 2021 pen on paper, really better than 2022?

 

The 2018 pen sucked, at the end. We still won.

[Bellhorn04]

The 2018 pen sucked, at the end. We still won.

 

Kimbrel was in rough shape in the 2018 postseason.

 

But Barnes, Brasier and Kelly were at their best, and Cora's ploy of using starters for 1-inning stints couldn't have worked any better.

[Bellhorn04]

The guy I'm looking forward to seeing is Yoshida.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Kimbrel was in rough shape in the 2018 postseason.

 

But Barnes, Brasier and Kelly were at their best, and Cora's ploy of using starters for 1-inning stints couldn't have worked any better.

 

I was in rough shape watching Kimbrel in the 2018 postseason. But you provided all the other reasons the bullpen survived... Cora found himself in a worse predicament in 2021, when more relievers struggled and his rovers had mixed success (Pivetta was ok and luckier than Eovaldi, who got burned, and burned out in the end).

 

At least depth-wise, it seems like the Sox will have finally have more options on the 40 and in the farm soon... for a lot of three-batter minimums, anyway.

[notin]

Kimbrel was in rough shape in the 2018 postseason.

 

But Barnes, Brasier and Kelly were at their best, and Cora's ploy of using starters for 1-inning stints couldn't have worked any better.

 

Kelly was great in the postseason, but there was a debate on this board about whether or not he should even be on the postseason roster…

[notin]

Yes, I mentioned that, but the talk was about who takes Story's slot on the 40, and perhaps the same guy on the 26.

 

We need MI depth, especially if Mondesi starts the season on the bench or IL.

 

Is MI depth a bigger need than pitching depth?

 

I actually think OF might be that bigger need. And frankly, I could see Alfaro flat out impressing enough to grab that spot. Especially since, unlike Goodrum, he has opt outs…

 

I don’t think Goodrum is close to a lock for that role…

[moonslav59]

Is MI depth a bigger need than pitching depth?

 

I actually think OF might be that bigger need. And frankly, I could see Alfaro flat out impressing enough to grab that spot. Especially since, unlike Goodrum, he has opt outs…

 

I don’t think Goodrum is close to a lock for that role…

 

I'd be okay adding another pitcher to the 40, like Fulmer, but we can only have 13 on the 26, so he'd just take the place of a pitcher. We still need the 13th everyday player, and there are several choices on the 40 already.

 

I never said Godorum was a lock.

 

I do think he offers the best profile of a SS, and yes, that is our biggest need in this context, assuming Mondesi is not ready, day one.

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel was in rough shape in the 2018 postseason.

 

But Barnes, Brasier and Kelly were at their best, and Cora's ploy of using starters for 1-inning stints couldn't have worked any better.

 

I wasn't just talking the playoffs.

 

ERA 2nd Half WHIP

4.57 Kimbrell 1.20

4.50 Kelly 1.65

6.41 Barnes 1.63

4.38 Workman 1.46

5.03 Hembree 1.32

 

SEPT

8.31 Kelly 1.96

7.36 Thornburg 2.18

6.48 Workman 1.68

5.68 Hembree 0.63

5.06 Barnes 1.68

3.86 Kimbrell 0.75

2.31 Brasier 0.86

 

[Bellhorn04]

I wasn't just talking the playoffs.

 

ERA 2nd Half WHIP

4.57 Kimbrell 1.20

4.50 Kelly 1.65

6.41 Barnes 1.63

4.38 Workman 1.46

5.03 Hembree 1.32

 

SEPT

8.31 Kelly 1.96

7.36 Thornburg 2.18

6.48 Workman 1.68

5.68 Hembree 0.63

5.06 Barnes 1.68

3.86 Kimbrell 0.75

2.31 Brasier 0.86

 

 

You're right.

 

Sometimes all you can say is "baseball is a crazy game".

[Bellhorn04]

Kelly was great in the postseason, but there was a debate on this board about whether or not he should even be on the postseason roster…

 

I think I was one who said he shouldn't be. That's why my baseball opinions are only found on places like this.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think I was one who said he shouldn't be. That's why my baseball opinions are only found on places like this.

 

It wasn't a bad take, because Kelly looked brutal in the month before the '18 postseason.

 

But he never had trouble spitting at big moments (just ask Ty Austin)... unlike others.

 

edit: not a metaphor, as dry mouth is a symptom of anxiety disorder during fight or flight situations

[moonslav59]

You're right.

 

Sometimes all you can say is "baseball is a crazy game".

 

That pen looked fine, on paper, in the spring and even early summer, but it just goes to show you how fickle RP'ers can be.

I hope this "good on paper" pen does through as expected. We will likely really need it to do so.

[mvp 78]

One thing I'm wondering about is the pen and how all the fans who said not having a good pen was the main reason we sucked will react, if they do well and we still suck.

 

They will say "the starting rotation is worse and the offense is worse."

[mvp 78]

If we did bring back Eovaldi, Wacha or Hill, it wouldn't really do all that much for our health prognostication.

 

Some people really preferred those injury risks to Sale, Paxton and Kluber. Out of those 6 names, Kluber is probably the most certain to be healthy.

[mvp 78]

Dalbec is on the 40 man. Goodrum isn’t.

 

Given the Sox abundance of MI players on the 40 man roster, are they going to replace Story with Niko Goodrum? The Sox have 5 healthy MI players on the 40 man In Hernandez, Arroyo, Valdez, Hamilton, and Rafaela. Plus a couple others with MI experience in Wong and Refsnyder. Do they need more than 7 middle infielders? And that’s not counting Mondesi, who might not be out all that long…

 

It's 2/10 and they haven't even put Story on the 60 day IL. A lot can change in the next 45 days.

[mvp 78]

The guy I'm looking forward to seeing is Yoshida.

 

Agreed. Unfortunately, he's going to be getting most of his at bats in the WBC it seems like.

[mvp 78]

Is MI depth a bigger need than pitching depth?

 

I actually think OF might be that bigger need. And frankly, I could see Alfaro flat out impressing enough to grab that spot. Especially since, unlike Goodrum, he has opt outs…

 

I don’t think Goodrum is close to a lock for that role…

 

He's NOT a lock for sure. It's between one of the OF guys (Tapia, Allen or some other guy), Alfaro and Goodrum. That's what I said yesterday.

[notin]

He's NOT a lock for sure. It's between one of the OF guys (Tapia, Allen or some other guy), Alfaro and Goodrum. That's what I said yesterday.

 

I didn’t include Allen, but I said the same a week or two ago. I also included Edwin Diaz, but he’s probably the least likely of the bunch.

 

Although if the Sox used that spot to grab Fulmer or Reyes, it might be better use…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Some people really preferred those injury risks to Sale, Paxton and Kluber. Out of those 6 names, Kluber is probably the most certain to be healthy.

 

My thinking on Kluber: old guy who was hurt for three years until 2022, when he labored through 164 innings... the recent mileage on his arm may make him more due to break down than Sale or Paxton, whose wings are spicy from marinating before their big comebacks.

[Old Red]

They will say "the starting rotation is worse and the offense is worse."

 

And if everything works out it will be I told you so, and 1 yr to late.

[mvp 78]

I didn’t include Allen, but I said the same a week or two ago. I also included Edwin Diaz, but he’s probably the least likely of the bunch.

 

Although if the Sox used that spot to grab Fulmer or Reyes, it might be better use…

 

I guess it would depend on if there is a deep discount on their contracts or not. Are they going to go with the 14 pitchers/12 hitters again early on or was that just due to the lockout last season?

 

Diaz might make sense if they think they only want a SS for a really short time and then will pass him through waivers. Goodrum can actually hit, so is more likely to get claimed. I believe Diaz is a good fielder but it would be an upgrade if he was given a noodle bat. Honestly, I don't want them to call up Edwin at all, because there are far too many Edwin Diazes that have played professionally and it's a real pain to pull up his FanGraphs page.

[Bellhorn04]

My thinking on Kluber: old guy who was hurt for three years until 2022, when he labored through 164 innings... the recent mileage on his arm may make him more due to break down than Sale or Paxton, whose wings are spicy from marinating before their big comebacks.

 

I'm calling slanted verbiage on "labored".

[Bellhorn04]

And if everything works out it will be I told you so, and 1 yr to late.

 

1 yr too late? Are we supposed to be haunted by 2022 forever?

[notin]

I guess it would depend on if there is a deep discount on their contracts or not. Are they going to go with the 14 pitchers/12 hitters again early on or was that just due to the lockout last season?

 

Diaz might make sense if they think they only want a SS for a really short time and then will pass him through waivers. Goodrum can actually hit, so is more likely to get claimed. I believe Diaz is a good fielder but it would be an upgrade if he was given a noodle bat. Honestly, I don't want them to call up Edwin at all, because there are far too many Edwin Diazes that have played professionally and it's a real pain to pull up his FanGraphs page.

 

Honestly I think Alfaro has the edge.

 

He has the opt out clauses, which you usually don’t give to a player unless you’re serious about him. And the Sox don’t exactly have Pudge Fisk and Pudge Rodriguez behind the plate. With just a decent spring, Alfaro can put himself into the catching picture. With a great spring, he might find himself starting…

[mvp 78]

And if everything works out it will be I told you so, and 1 yr to late.

 

Everyone always wants to be right. As long as the Sox win, it shouldn't matter which argument was right. None of us actually make the decisions.

[mvp 78]

Honestly I think Alfaro has the edge.

 

He has the opt out clauses, which you usually don’t give to a player unless you’re serious about him. And the Sox don’t exactly have Pudge Fisk and Pudge Rodriguez behind the plate. With just a decent spring, Alfaro can put himself into the catching picture. With a great spring, he might find himself starting…

 

I think they've given opt outs to lots of guys they weren't really serious about. At the very least, it's competition for Wong and McGuire and forces them to come in and earn their spot. Sox are very weak at the upper levels at C.