A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

Icarus Bloom he is.

 

"It's going to be awesome."

[mvp 78]

Seattle returns seven starters who made multiple starts last season without being sidelined with an injury. All seven pitchers are at least two years younger than Chris Sale, James Paxton and Corey Kluber.

The Mariner staff should not rely on continued health but it should be an interesting season.

 

That's not really saying much. The Sox rotation is on the older side this season.

[mvp 78]

He’s emergency depth.

 

Bottom line is he’s probably ahead of Goodrum merely because he’s on the 40-man, which was the entire point.

 

He’s also probably behind Valdez for MIF duty…

 

For Dalbec to be on the roster, I think there would have to be an injury to Casas, Turner or Devers. He's better suited to working on Corner OF defense in AAA IMO.

[moonslav59]

For Dalbec to be on the roster, I think there would have to be an injury to Casas, Turner or Devers. He's better suited to working on Corner OF defense in AAA IMO.

 

Agreed. Turner is a better back up at 3B and 1B, too, but yes if any of the 3 get hurt, I like having Dalbec as AAA depth. He still has some upside. He's streaky, so if you catch him at the right time, good things could happen.

 

These sample sizes are not small. (One can cherry pick the time periods to show he has longer hot steaks than cold ones:

 

.959 in 92 PAs in 2020

 

.595 in 173 PAs to start 2021

 

.916 in last 280 PAs in 2021 (including 1.027 in last 172 PAs)

 

.441 in first 79 PAs in 2022

 

.714 in last 274 PAs in 2022 (.725 last 115)

 

[Old Red]

For Dalbec to be on the roster, I think there would have to be an injury to Casas, Turner or Devers. He's better suited to working on Corner OF defense in AAA IMO.

 

If Turner is the backup 1B/3B to start he season there is no place, or no need for Bobby D to start the season with the Red Sox. He would benefit to being down at AAA getting AB, and working on whatever D position you want to try him.

[Old Red]

That's not really saying much. The Sox rotation is on the older side this season.

Not only on the older side, but even if healthy what can you really expect from, Sale, Paxton, and Kluber?

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

FanGraphs' initial power rankings have the Red Sox 14th overall.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-spring-training-edition/

 

No team’s roster feels as volatile as Boston’s. If everything works out right, the Red Sox could give the Rays and Blue Jays a serious fight behind the Yankees. Maybe all their health question marks turn out to be fine, Masataka Yoshida makes a seamless transition stateside, their veterans fight off decline for another year, and their youngsters take a major step forward. But there are so many ways that things could fall apart, and too many of those scenarios would have disastrous cascading effects across their roster. Threading the needle should be compelling to watch for outsiders and completely heartrending for fans in Boston.

 

Compares Sox to Angels and Rangers. Projected record 82-80.

[Bellhorn04]

Not only on the older side, but even if healthy what can you really expect from, Sale, Paxton, and Kluber?

 

Well, they do have some skills.

[Bellhorn04]

@redsoxstats

FanGraphs' initial power rankings have the Red Sox 14th overall.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-spring-training-edition/

 

No team’s roster feels as volatile as Boston’s. If everything works out right, the Red Sox could give the Rays and Blue Jays a serious fight behind the Yankees. Maybe all their health question marks turn out to be fine, Masataka Yoshida makes a seamless transition stateside, their veterans fight off decline for another year, and their youngsters take a major step forward. But there are so many ways that things could fall apart, and too many of those scenarios would have disastrous cascading effects across their roster. Threading the needle should be compelling to watch for outsiders and completely heartrending for fans in Boston.

 

Compares Sox to Angels and Rangers. Projected record 82-80.

 

Reasonable.

[Old Red]

Well, they do have some skills.

 

Skills, but older skills now. When was the last time Sale was a #1, or Ace pitcher 2018?

[mvp 78]

Not only on the older side, but even if healthy what can you really expect from, Sale, Paxton, and Kluber?

 

If healthy, they should be pretty good. They've always been decent starting pitchers when healthy.

[mvp 78]

Skills, but older skills now. When was the last time Sale was a #1, or Ace pitcher 2018?

 

Nobody expects him to be an ace. There is no "ace" on this staff. This isn't a team built for a deep postseason run.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

@redsoxstats

FanGraphs' initial power rankings have the Red Sox 14th overall.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-spring-training-edition/

 

No team’s roster feels as volatile as Boston’s. If everything works out right, the Red Sox could give the Rays and Blue Jays a serious fight behind the Yankees. Maybe all their health question marks turn out to be fine, Masataka Yoshida makes a seamless transition stateside, their veterans fight off decline for another year, and their youngsters take a major step forward. But there are so many ways that things could fall apart, and too many of those scenarios would have disastrous cascading effects across their roster. Threading the needle should be compelling to watch for outsiders and completely heartrending for fans in Boston.

 

Compares Sox to Angels and Rangers. Projected record 82-80.

 

I agree with all of this except the bold-face -- at least for regular posters on talksox... especially on the Realistic thread. Does anyone really have their hopes up with this cast, and will be crushed if they don't make it?

 

Heartrending? Regulars on talksox are more stout-hearted. Think I'll go pour a stout for my heart right now...

[Old Red]

I agree with all of this except the bold-face -- at least for regular posters on talksox... especially on the Realistic thread. Does anyone really have their hopes up with this cast, and will be crushed if they don't make it?

 

Heartrending? Regulars on talksox are more stout-hearted. Think I'll go pour a stout for my heart right now...

 

2021 went better than expected, and 2022 didn’t go as well as expected, and like I’ve repeatedly said that anything less than a winning record, and a trip to the postseason is a failure. This year, last year, or any year.

[moonslav59]

I agree with all of this except the bold-face -- at least for regular posters on talksox... especially on the Realistic thread. Does anyone really have their hopes up with this cast, and will be crushed if they don't make it?

 

Heartrending? Regulars on talksox are more stout-hearted. Think I'll go pour a stout for my heart right now...

 

I have high hopes, but I also realize we could easily end up under .500, even with decent health.

 

I like this team more than 2022's.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2021 went better than expected, and 2022 didn’t go as well as expected, and like I’ve repeatedly said that anything less than a winning record, and a trip to the postseason is a failure. This year, last year, or any year.

 

But if the regulars the Red Sox plan to field in support of the projected starting rotation fail to reach the '23 postseason... the shock will give you a heart attack?

 

Most of us are prepared for plenty of acid reflux, even some nausea, but there shouldn't be any organs rended this time around.

[Old Red]

But if the regulars the Red Sox plan to field in support of the projected starting rotation fail to reach the '23 postseason... the shock will give you a heart attack?

 

Most of us are prepared for plenty of acid reflux, even some nausea, but there shouldn't be any organs rended this time around.

 

No it wouldn’t shock me at all if the Red Sox end up worse than last year, but it’s just my point that the goal every year is to make the postseason. I think the pitching going into the season looks better than last year especially the BP, but I don’t think the batting order looks as good as last year going into the season. I don’t see the schedule being any easier this year even though they will be playing less games against the Div.Playing more better teams that you normally wouldn’t be playing will offset that to some degree.

[notin]

For Dalbec to be on the roster, I think there would have to be an injury to Casas, Turner or Devers. He's better suited to working on Corner OF defense in AAA IMO.

 

All I’m saying is he’s ahead of Goodrum…

[mvp 78]

All I’m saying is he’s ahead of Goodrum…

 

If the season started today and the 40 man was full, yes.

[moonslav59]

All I’m saying is he’s ahead of Goodrum…

 

At 2B?

 

Plus, we have to move Arroyo to SS, if Kike gets hurt or needs a rest. You really want a middle IF of Arroyo at SS and Dalbec at 2B for more than 1 game?

[mvp 78]

No it wouldn’t shock me at all if the Red Sox end up worse than last year, but it’s just my point that the goal every year is to make the postseason. I think the pitching going into the season looks better than last year especially the BP, but I don’t think the batting order looks as good as last year going into the season. I don’t see the schedule being any easier this year even though they will be playing less games against the Div.Playing more better teams that you normally wouldn’t be playing will offset that to some degree.

 

@SmittyOnMLB

Red Sox projected for last in AL East, according to ZiPS Projected Standings

[mvp 78]

At 2B?

 

Plus, we have to move Arroyo to SS, if Kike gets hurt or needs a rest. You really want a middle IF of Arroyo at SS and Dalbec at 2B for more than 1 game?

 

Niko Goodrum is an actual SS. Arroyo has barely played SS since 2017.

[moonslav59]

One thing I'm wondering about is the pen and how all the fans who said not having a good pen was the main reason we sucked will react, if they do well and we still suck.

[moonslav59]

Niko Goodrum is an actual SS. Arroyo has barely played SS since 2017.

 

Yes, that's why I'm seriously wondering how notin has Dalbec ahead of Goodrum, or even Valdez or Hamilton for the 26th slot. True, Goodrum needs to be added to the 40, first, so I get that, but going into opening day with just Kike and Arroyo as MI'ers with Dalbec and Wong as their back-ups is more than scary.

 

If Mondesi id ready, I'm fine with keeping Goodrum off the 40 or Valdez in AAA, but I don't want Dalbec and Wong as our immediate 2B depth.

 

I don't like Arroyo at SS, either, at all. Maybe for one game.

[moonslav59]

@SmittyOnMLB

Red Sox projected for last in AL East, according to ZiPS Projected Standings

 

Zippity-Jacko!

[Old Red]

I don’t remember anyone saying not having a good BP was the Main Reason the team sucked. It was A reason among injuries, and lack of production from the big boppers, so if the BP does well, and the team still sucks I would pretty much assume that that the blame will go to whatever, or whoever fails. It won’t be a big mystery.

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t remember anyone saying not having a good BP was the Main Reason the team sucked. It was A reason among injuries, and lack of production from the big boppers, so if the BP does well, and the team still sucks I would pretty much assume that that the blame will go to whatever, or whoever fails. It won’t be a big mystery.

 

I would agree.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One thing I'm wondering about is the pen and how all the fans who said not having a good pen was the main reason we sucked will react, if they do well and we still suck.

 

Not having a complete roster was the main reason -- most fans here at least agreed with that last year: not having a good pen... or a right-handed hitting outfielder who could hit and catch all season... or any first baseman who could do either for the first five months... or a starting rotation young enough to stay healthy enough to provide 128 innings pitched (besides Pivetta).

 

But if this year's bullpen does well, the only way we'll improve is if the new old starting pitchers, the overhauled offense, and the makeshift no-shift D give them as many leads as the boys of Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill did.

[moonslav59]

I would agree.

 

IMO, it was way out in front of any other weak area, in terms of comments and criticism, and for good reason.

 

Some were very specific about not having a closer or not defining one and sticking with him.

 

Note" I said "main reason" not only reason.

[Bellhorn04]

If we did bring back Eovaldi, Wacha or Hill, it wouldn't really do all that much for our health prognostication.