A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

So, they must be viewing Mayer as "at least 2 years away," then, right?

 

He could sure fill in the gap between the bubbles by making a strong debut in 2024. (Maybe even get a look-see in 2023, as you suggest.)

 

A lot of people are still projecting Mayer as "two years away." I guess they think Mayer would go A/AA in 23 and AA/AAA in 24? I think he'll exceed those expectations. That's just me.

[mvp 78]

This year will give us an idea exactly how gold plated he is ... at some point he's going to be a 20 year old in Portland, which would make him one of the youngest regulars in AA. If he plays well this season, then it's time to dream very big.

 

For me, the two prospects in the system that I'm already dreaming on are Mayer and Bleis. It's probably OVERLY premature, but I was born 9 weeks early so you can't really blame me for always jumping the gun. I'm the type of person who thinks "5 minutes early is late."

[mvp 78]

It's hard to assess pitching down on the farms, after everyone lost a year of in-game development in the summer of '20. But according to mlb.com, the Orioles, Jays, Guardians, Phils, Marlins and Dodgers all have two Top-10 righty or lefty starting prospects. Boston has zero.

 

The Red Sox feel they need to limit Bello's innings -- he's going to be 24 in May. So will Mata.

 

Just for perspective: Clemens was 24 the year he won AL MVP. Valenzuela and Gooden threw 8 shutouts apiece in the bigs when they were 20.

 

How did Valenzuela hold up after age 25?

 

Was Gooden the same pitcher after 25?

[Bellhorn04]

For me, the two prospects in the system that I'm already dreaming on are Mayer and Bleis. It's probably OVERLY premature, but I was born 9 weeks early so you can't really blame me for always jumping the gun. I'm the type of person who thinks "5 minutes early is late."

 

Even for work meetings?

[mvp 78]

Maybe the reason is I’ve had the common decency, and common sense to take a break, and give everyone else a break, but I noticed reading all the post not everyone did the same thing. Of course they would have to know they did something wrong first. I call things as I see em, and one in particular just can’t stand that, and thinks he’s the judge of what’s right, and wrong. After 60+ years of watching, listening, and reading Al kinds of sports venues I Never seen anything, or anyone like this, and I’m sure he’s been that way since he’s been on here. You told me once that you have put him on timeout, and that’s not surprising at all.

 

I put people on ignore, not because of how they are as fans, but because how it affects my enjoyment of TalkSox. My suggestion of putting other posters on ignore is not to deride the other poster, but to state that it's better to just put someone on ignore if you can't help yourself from being bothered by their posts. Maybe you two should put each other on ignore if you just can't help yourselves from snipping at each other. As bellhorn said, this is a lightly moderated board. Suspensions aren't going to fix the problem in a timely manner unless it gets really ugly and I don't think anyone wants that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How did Valenzuela hold up after age 25?

 

Was Gooden the same pitcher after 25?

 

Fernando, Doc and Rocket were all legendary pitchers of substance.

 

LA is retiring #34 this year...

[mvp 78]

Even for work meetings?

 

For work meetings as well. When I was walking into the lead meeting today, the EA said "no one is in their yet" but that was fine by me. I wanted to get my seat, adjust the blinds, relax.

[mvp 78]

Fernando, Doc and Rocket were all legendary pitchers of substance.

 

LA is retiring #34 this year...

 

How did Fernando do after age 25?

 

Was Gooden the same pitcher after age 25?

[Old Red]

A lot of people are still projecting Mayer as "two years away." I guess they think Mayer would go A/AA in 23 and AA/AAA in 24? I think he'll exceed those expectations. That's just me.

 

I’m counting on him being in Portland in early June.

[mvp 78]

LA is retiring #34 this year...

 

Also, I'm a HUGE Fernando fan. I've carried an '86 Topps Mini Fernando card in my wallet for about 25 years now.

[mvp 78]

I’m counting on him being in Portland in early June.

 

I agree. I wouldn't put him there in April/May just because of how horrible the weather can be.

[moonslav59]

A lot of people are still projecting Mayer as "two years away." I guess they think Mayer would go A/AA in 23 and AA/AAA in 24? I think he'll exceed those expectations. That's just me.

 

I also see Mayer as the type of player that can be "fast-tracked." He's likely already good enough on D, and as you point out, his approach is perfect for moving up, quickly.

 

If it takes two more years, that's okay, too.

[moonslav59]

For me, the two prospects in the system that I'm already dreaming on are Mayer and Bleis. It's probably OVERLY premature, but I was born 9 weeks early so you can't really blame me for always jumping the gun. I'm the type of person who thinks "5 minutes early is late."

 

I'm the same way. I am never late.

 

My Dad was always late, and got us to events late. I think that drove me so crazy, I'm his opposite.

[mvp 78]

I also see Mayer as the type of player that can be "fast-tracked." He's likely already good enough on D, and as you point out, his approach is perfect for moving up, quickly.

 

If it takes two more years, that's okay, too.

 

Agree on both points. Theoretically, he can have the rocket strapped to him this year and it will be more than ok. If it take him a little longer to get there, it's not a huge knock on his longterm value either.

[moonslav59]

Agree on both points. Theoretically, he can have the rocket strapped to him this year and it will be more than ok. If it take him a little longer to get there, it's not a huge knock on his longterm value either.

 

Bleis is more "raw" but looks extremely talented.

 

The wildcard is Rafaela. The kid could really be something, or end up as the next JBJ- great on D and sporadic on O with some major holes in his O.

 

What we really need is a pitcher to step up and end the curse our system has been in for far too long.

[harmony]

ZiPS currently projects the Red Sox with a last-place finish in the AL East:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

[moonslav59]

ZiPS currently projects the Red Sox with a last-place finish in the AL East:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

 

Improved win total, though.

 

LOL.

[Old Red]

ZiPS currently projects the Red Sox with a last-place finish in the AL East:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

 

To me anything less than a winning record, and a trip to the postseason is as Sam Kennedy called this past season a failure by all.

[dgalehouse]

There are a few question marks, but if some of them pan out the Sox should be better than last season. I think passing the Orioles is probable and the Rays could be slipping as well. A wild card spot is definitely possible. As always, staying healthy is key for every team.

[moonslav59]

Certainly, a lot of money has been spent over the last year. Of course, we lost a bunch of salary, this winter- some of whom were plus and plus-plus performers, but I'm not sure even DD had a 12 month spending period like Bloom just had.

 

Lux Tax Dollars (+109M AAV in 2023)

(17.5 x 1 not counted) and 29.1 x 10 Devers (starts in 2024)

23.3 x 6 Story (March 2022)

18.0 x 5 Yoshida

16.0 x 2 Jansen

10.8 x 2 Turner

10.0 x 2 Kluber

10.0 x 1 Kike

7.50 x 2 Martin

7.00 x 1 Duvall

4.00 x 1 Paxton (option)

2.00 x 1 Rodriguez (+ opts)

 

Lost: (about $113M AAV)

22.0 JD

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

12.0 JBJ

9.38 Barnes

7.00 Vaz

7.00 Wacha

5.00 Hill

4.00 Diekman

3.00 Strahm

2.25 Plawecki

2.25 Robles

1.60 Sawamura

1.50 T Shaw

 

If you don't count the Story signing, we actually did not fully replace the salary lost from 2022. (Kike was extended during 2022, and I counted that as winter spending.)

 

That being said, my expectation is that we should significantly improve on the 2022 team. It's hard to imagine we'll have more injuries, and since the schedule is easier, there should be no excuses, if we fail to get over .500, IMO.

 

We lost some good talent from 2022, but when you spend $86M over the winter (counting Kike), that should be enough to fill those big shoes. This is Bloom's "legacy season," IMO. It may not make or break his tenure here, but it might.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

\

That being said, my expectation is that we should significantly improve on the 2022 team. It's hard to imagine we'll have more injuries, and since the schedule is easier, there should be no excuses, if we fail to get over .500, IMO.

 

We lost some good talent from 2022, but when you spend $86M over the winter (counting Kike), that should be enough to fill those big shoes. This is Bloom's "legacy season," IMO. It may not make or break his tenure here, but it might.

 

But is it hard to imagine less injuries?

 

The only projected starting pitcher the Red Sox don't have "to take care of" is Pivetta. What are the odds the projected starting rotation 1. leaves Florida intact? 2. remains intact through April? 3. Sale, Paxton, Kluber and Whitlock make 25 starts apiece this year (average number of starts for '22 AL playoff team rotations).

 

1. 33%; 2. 25%; 3. 1%

[moonslav59]

But is it hard to imagine less injuries?

 

The only projected starting pitcher the Red Sox don't have "to take care of" is Pivetta. What are the odds the projected starting rotation 1. leaves Florida intact? 2. remains intact through April? 3. Sale, Paxton, Kluber and Whitlock make 25 starts apiece this year (average number of starts for '22 AL playoff team rotations).

 

1. 33%; 2. 25%; 3. 1%

 

We saw Sale and Paxton miss the whole season. Wacha and Hill missed a half season between them. Nate missed a third. Whitlock and Houck missed time. Taylor, maybe our 2nd or 3rd best RP'er missed every game. Barnes and other were hurt.

 

I do think it's hard to imagine this staff has more injuries.

 

The everyday players may come close. Kike & Story missed almost half the year. Devers played hurt for a month and played in 141 gms, total. Arroyo was Arroyo. Casas and Hosmer missed time.

 

I stand by my point.

[moonslav59]

. What are the odds the projected starting rotation 1. leaves Florida intact? 2. remains intact through April?

 

We have 6 SP'ers, so to me, the odds that 5 are healthy are maybe 60-70%. The odds 4 are healthy, maybe 85-95%, IMO.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We saw Sale and Paxton miss the whole season. Wacha and Hill missed a half season between them. Nate missed a third. Whitlock and Houck missed time. Taylor, maybe our 2nd or 3rd best RP'er missed every game. Barnes and other were hurt.

 

I do think it's hard to imagine this staff has more injuries.

 

The everyday players may come close. Kike & Story missed almost half the year. Devers played hurt for a month and played in 141 gms, total. Arroyo was Arroyo. Casas and Hosmer missed time.

 

I stand by my point.

 

I'm not criticizing your point. Mine is that the projected starting rotation is counting on a lot of brittle veterans again, along with two young guys coming off surgery, and another who'll be on a limit.

 

It's all about the pitching. If Sale-Kluber-Paxton-Whitlock do make 25 starts each, that means they stayed mostly healthy -- and presumably effective... Add in Pivetta's usual 30, and say they allow Bello Martinez to start 20, and we're looking at more wins than losses -- with a shot a wild card. How's that for optimism?

 

Houston had five guys make 25+ starts last year; four with at least 28. Shouldn't that standard be fans' expectations for the Red Sox?

[moonslav59]

I'm not criticizing your point. Mine is that the projected starting rotation is counting on a lot of brittle veterans again, along with two young guys coming off surgery, and another who'll be on a limit.

 

It's all about the pitching. If Sale-Kluber-Paxton-Whitlock do make 25 starts each, that means they stayed mostly healthy -- and presumably effective... Add in Pivetta's usual 30, and say they allow Bello Martinez to start 20, and we're looking at more wins than losses -- with a shot a wild card. How's that for optimism?

 

Houston had five guys make 25+ starts last year; four with at least 28. Shouldn't that standard be fans' expectations for the Red Sox?

 

It would be nice, but you need a strong farm that produces 6 SP'ers like they did. I don't expect that from this rotation, but I think'll get more starts from our top 6 than last year's top 6.

 

While I think we will be lucky to meet fangraph projected GS'd, we don't have to to beat 2022's record. We could lose 33 starts from these projections and still beat 2022 by 12 starts.

 

ZIPS

31 Pivetta

29 Kluber

26 Sale

23 Paxton

21 Whitlock

19 Bello

149 Total (I project 120 or 20 GS x 6 SP'er avg.)

 

2022

33 Pivetta

26 Hill

23 Wacha

20 Nate

2 Sale

0 Paxton

104 Total

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

MLBTR has this on the 60 Day IL. Did something change from last year?

 

Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

 

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

 

So, we can put Story on the 60 Day IL, open up a slot, now, but his clock begins March 30th, right?

[moonslav59]

I'm not criticizing your point. Mine is that the projected starting rotation is counting on a lot of brittle veterans again, along with two young guys coming off surgery, and another who'll be on a limit.

 

It's all about the pitching. If Sale-Kluber-Paxton-Whitlock do make 25 starts each, that means they stayed mostly healthy -- and presumably effective... Add in Pivetta's usual 30, and say they allow Bello Martinez to start 20, and we're looking at more wins than losses -- with a shot a wild card. How's that for optimism?

 

Houston had five guys make 25+ starts last year; four with at least 28. Shouldn't that standard be fans' expectations for the Red Sox?

 

MLBTR sums up the Sox SP'er situation...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/the-volatile-red-sox-rotation.html

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLBTR sums up the Sox SP'er situation...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/the-volatile-red-sox-rotation.html

 

There's never been more certainty about uncertainty.

[mvp 78]

MLBTR has this on the 60 Day IL. Did something change from last year?

 

Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

 

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

 

So, we can put Story on the 60 Day IL, open up a slot, now, but his clock begins March 30th, right?

 

Yes. We'll see if anyone else gets added too. I haven't heard anything about how Paxton, Houck or other player's rehabs are going.

[moonslav59]

There's never been more certainty about uncertainty.

 

I certainly agree.