A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[a700hitter]

The whole treatment of Hill was absolutely ridiculous. They limited his innings like he was some venerable old grandpa who had to be pulled at the first sign that there might be a sign of pending trouble. Nothing was more egregious than that game against Baltimore where he was removed in the fifth inning after giving up his first hit of the game…

he was also removed after 5 innings and 1 hit with a low pitch count against the Angels at Fenway. That is my recollection. And I think he gave up the hit in the first or second inning.

[moonslav59]

Rich Hill had one of MLB's best records vs 3rd PA in a game in 2021 with a .586 OPS Against in 101 PAs. It was .485 in 2020.

 

Still, they seemed to view him as the guy they needed to yank early on.

 

He had thrown just 50 pitches in the O's game, and the next game they yanked him after 68 pitches with a 1 hitter going through 5 IP. (They ended up losing that game.)

 

After May, they started letting him go longer.

[mvp 78]

Okay, but your list was in response to my post that you don't read.

 

 

This is incorrect. I was agreeing with your assertion that until he proves that he can go a full season, we have a right to be skeptical. I was in agreement and posted his games played. You posted the games played 3pm yesterday, which I didn't go back and re-read as I was in a meeting at that time. I just read back to where I had stopped posting yesterday. Forgive me for not memorizing yesterday's posts. I will take the lashes now. Just have your cookie please.

[mvp 78]

The Phillies rode one to the World Series…

 

Did they win?

[mvp 78]

The whole treatment of Hill was absolutely ridiculous. They limited his innings like he was some venerable old grandpa who had to be pulled at the first sign that there might be a sign of pending trouble. Nothing was more egregious than that game against Baltimore where he was removed in the fifth inning after giving up his first hit of the game…

 

With Hill, you can just look at his innings pitched year to year and see it's a reasonable position to take with him...

 

Since being transitioned to a starter:

16 110

17 135

18 132

19 58

20 38

21 158!

22 124

[mvp 78]

Crybabies!

 

10 days until we can cry about how much the cost of gas is affecting the Henry's checkbook on Truck Day.

[moonslav59]

This is incorrect. I was agreeing with your assertion that until he proves that he can go a full season, we have a right to be skeptical. I was in agreement and posted his games played. You posted the games played 3pm yesterday, which I didn't go back and re-read as I was in a meeting at that time. I just read back to where I had stopped posting yesterday. Forgive me for not memorizing yesterday's posts. I will take the lashes now. Just have your cookie please.

 

You said you don't read my posts but responded to one (not the one with my list.)

 

Not incorrect.

[moonslav59]

10 days until we can cry about how much the cost of gas is affecting the Henry's checkbook on Truck Day.

 

Good one!

 

Will Andrus and harrison be signed by the first day of ST'ing?

[mvp 78]

You said you don't read my posts but responded to one (not the one with my list.)

 

Not incorrect.

 

No, I said:

 

I don't read all of your posts. There are too many.

[mvp 78]

Good one!

 

Will Andrus and harrison be signed by the first day of ST'ing?

 

By the Sox? No. By someone else? Probably.

[notin]

Did they win?

 

Closer to it than 28 teams with dedicated closers…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Laugh babies are still happy Hill got pulled by LA with a one-hitter in the 7th in Game Four of the '18 World Series.

[mvp 78]

Closer to it than 28 teams with dedicated closers…

 

28 other teams did not have dedicated closers.

 

In 2012, 21 relievers had 25+ saves. In 2022, there were only 11.

[moonslav59]

28 other teams did not have dedicated closers.

 

In 2012, 21 relievers had 25+ saves. In 2022, there were only 11.

 

Some may have had a dedicated closer, all year, but just changed horses in midstream.

[Bellhorn04]

After the Mondesi trade Bloom still has some money to play with (assuming they go up to the first threshold but not over).

[moonslav59]

After the Mondesi trade Bloom still has some money to play with (assuming they go up to the first threshold but not over).

 

We might be done for the winter. Adding Harrison might work, but we may save budget space for the deadline.

[mvp 78]

We might be done for the winter. Adding Harrison might work, but we may save budget space for the deadline.

 

Also just need to save room for callups (Tapia, Alfaro, etc.).

[moonslav59]

So, with the Mondesi, Duvall and Tapia pick-ups are we looking at bouncing Kike between CF, 2B and SS, or will we try to keep him at one position, most likely SS, and let the others duke it out for playing time?

 

SS Kike (Mondesi then Arroyo as back-ups, maybe Mayer by August or September)

 

CF Duval & Tapia (Please no Duran!)

 

2B Arroyo (Kike plays 2B, when Mondesi starts, and EValdez is the minor league depth.)

 

Mondesi is a switch hitter and son of Raul Mondesi. His splits are pretty even over his scattered career PAs:

.719 v L

.674 v R

 

Arroyo's splits are pretty even, too:

.725 v L

.696 v R

 

Tapia

.684 v L

.717 v R

 

Duvall

.771 v L

.749 v R

 

Kike:

.822 v L

.671 v R

 

Nothing really jumps out and says "PLATOON!"

 

It looks like we have the depth we wanted, but much is tied to good health. It's the Bloom Themes Song.

 

[moonslav59]

Is this the opening day line-up and roster?

 

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Kike 2B/SS

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Duvall CF

7. L Dugo RF

8. S Mondesi SS/R Arroyo 2B

9. L McGuire/ R Wong C

Bench: Wong/McGuire, Arroyo/Mondesi, Refsnyder, Tapia

 

SP1. Sale

SP2. Kluber

SP3. Whitlock

SP4. Bello

SP5. Pivetta

SP6. Paxton

 

RP1. Jansen

RP2. Martin

RP3. Houck

RP4. Schreiber

RP5. Barnes

RP6. Rodriguez

RP7. Brasier

 

Rest of 40:

C: (Alfaro added when Story goes on the 60 day IL)

1B: Dalbec

2B: Valdez, Hamilton (SS)

SS/2B: Story (to IL)

OF/IF: Rafaela

OF: Duran

SP/RP: Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, Murphy

RP: Mills, Kelly, German (Ort- DFA'd for Duvall?

 

 

 

 

 

[vegasbob]

Moon's potential lineup has a distinct Army on the march look, left-right-left-right with Mondesi as the wild card switching. Is this the group we are ready to go to battle with ? Why do I think ST will present all sorts of twists and variations. There are only 3 truly established position players in that group, maybe 4 if you count Turner at DH.

[moonslav59]

When is the last time the Sox projected to have a different player at 8 positions from the previous season as well as 4 different SP'ers and a new 1-2 pen punch?

 

Most innings 2022> 2023 projected

 

C: Vaz & Plawecki> McGuire & Wong

1B: Dalbec & Cordero> Casas & Turner

2B: Story & Arroyo> Arroyo & Kike

3B: Devers (Dalbec)> Devers (Turner)

SS: Bogey (Arroyo)> Kike & Mondesi

LF: Verdugo & Pham> Yoshida (Duvall)

CF: Kike & Duran> Duvall & Tapia

RF: JBJ & Verdugo/Ref> Verdugo & Ref

DH: JD > Turner

 

Even most of the first back-ups have changed!

 

Pitching Staff:

S1: Wacha> Sale

S2: Hill> Kluber

S3: Nate> Whitlock

S4: Wink/Craw> Bello

S5:Pivetta> Pivetta

S6: Seabold> Paxton

 

R1: Houck> Jansen

R2: Schreiber> Schreiber

R3: Strahm> Martin

R4: Whitlock> Houck

R5: Barnes> Barnes

R6: Sawamura (3rd in RP IP)> Rodriguez

R7: Davis (4th in IP)> Mills

R8: Brasier (2nd in IP)> Brasier

R9+: Danish, Diekman, ort, Robles (all 24+ IP)> Mata, Walter, Wink, Craw, Murphy, German, ort

[/color]

 

[moonslav59]

Moon's potential lineup has a distinct Army on the march look, left-right-left-right with Mondesi as the wild card switching. Is this the group we are ready to go to battle with ? Why do I think ST will present all sorts of twists and variations. There are only 3 truly established position players in that group, maybe 4 if you count Turner at DH.

 

If healthy, Devers, Dugo, Kike, Yoshida, Turner and Casas should play everyday. McGuire is the FT catcher, but will not get 550+ PAs. That's 7 FT'ers, but their positions are not all locked down.

 

I think Yoshida in LF and Dugo in RF are close to locks.

 

Casas is going to get a very long look at 1B.

 

Kike's position looked to be SS, until the Mondesi trade. If Mondesi is healthy- I know, big if, he may be the best from Duvall, Arroyo and Tapia. With Duvall being an OF'er, I have to go with Mondesi over Arroyo, which means Kike plays 2B, but yes, ST'ing may flip some scripts.

 

Mega changes on this team, as my last post points out. Only Devers and Pivetta look to be returning to their 2022 majority roles. I guess you can count Schreiber, Barnes and Brasier, but I have all moving down a notch or more on the pen list.

 

This is clearly Bloom's team, now... warts and all.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Nothing really jumps out and says "PLATOON!"

 

It looks like we have the depth we wanted, but much is tied to good health. It's the Bloom Themes Song.

 

 

... it's when Elias put the shotgun in Taylor's mouth.

 

Up, Up and Away... my beautiful, my beautiful Ba-Loooom

[moonslav59]

I'm very concerned about the injury prone aspect of Mondesi, but the more I think about him and look over his numbers, the guy has real promise.

 

He's got real speed and defensive skills, and even with the high K rate, he averages 25 doubles, 10 triples and 18 Hrs per 650 PAs.

 

I will say, I'm tired of wishing for health on half our roster.

 

He's another one of those mixed defensive metrics players. He ranks 4th in UZR/150 among the 39 SSs with over 2,000 innings at SS since 2016, but he has a -1 DRS total (21st out of the 39, with Iggy, Andrus and Bogey far below him.)

 

Since 2018, he places 3rd in UZR/150 (+8.5) out of 31 SSs w 2,000 + innings and 17th in DRS at +3.

 

2019 and 1,500 + innings (32 SSs)

3rd in UZR/150 (+7.7)

T12th in DRS (+9), but might have been 7th or 8th with many more innings.

[moonslav59]

Matt Barnes DFA'd to make room for Duvall!!!

 

I'm shocked. I'm thinking a trade must be in the works.

 

He's got to have better hopes than Brasier, Ort and a few others on the 40.

 

Crazy times!

[harmony]

Matt Barnes DFA'd to make room for Duvall!!!

 

I'm shocked. I'm thinking a trade must be in the works.

 

He's got to have better hopes than Brasier, Ort and a few others on the 40.

 

Crazy times!

Matt Barnes is owed $8.375 million this year so a trade might be tough to negotiate.

 

The Barnes extension was a "highway robbery steal":

.

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20141-Barnes-extended?p=1401762&viewfull=1#post1401762

Edited January 24, 2023 by harmony

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm very concerned about the injury prone aspect of Mondesi, but the more I think about him and look over his numbers, the guy has real promise.

 

He's got real speed and defensive skills, and even with the high K rate, he averages 25 doubles, 10 triples and 18 Hrs per 650 PAs.

 

I will say, I'm tired of wishing for health on half our roster.

 

 

Another high-ceiling guy. Sox fans crave middle-of-the-roommates. Happy days will finally come when there's a steady cast sitting at the table around Raffy every night... instead of him eating all alone, looking up, looking down, looking all around.

[Bellhorn04]

Matt Barnes DFA'd to make room for Duvall!!!

 

I'm shocked. I'm thinking a trade must be in the works.

 

He's got to have better hopes than Brasier, Ort and a few others on the 40.

 

Crazy times!

 

Shocker indeed.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Cora just said on NESN last night (taped over the weekend): "Barnes in the 7th, Martin in the 8th, Jensen in the 9th."

[harmony]

What do the departures of Matt Barnes and Josh Taylor mean for the Red Sox bullpen?