A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

They’d be insane to turn down 6 years of work-in-progress Duran for one year of 34yo career utility infielder Rojas…

 

He has not been "utility."

 

He has been the starting SS for MIA for 4 straight years and has had 500+ PAs those 4 seasons, except 2020.

 

GS'd at SS

122 in 2019

39/60 in '20

128 in '21

136 in '22

 

GS'd at other positions:

1 at 1B in '19

1 at 3B in '20

 

Not "utility."

 

Not part-timer.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sox could do a 2 for 1 deal, but no way would anyone want to do a 3 for 1 and then have to DFA 2 guys for what the Sox are giving up. More likely, the Sox are going to trade Brasier/Ort/Seabold/Dalbec for guys not on the 40 man rosters of other teams a la the Christian Koss deal.

 

Sox probably have 5-6 guys they need to clear off the current 40 man before next season starts.

DHern - DFA

Ort - DFA

Seabold - trade

Dalbec - trade

Duran - trade

Paxton - trade

 

If they trade Paxton for himself, he might turn it down.

[moonslav59]

The Romero money went to Anthony.

 

Yes, but I was using Anthony as an example of how, where and who "extra" bonus money can be used on.

[mvp 78]

If they trade Paxton for himself, he might turn it down.

 

I just have a hunch that they get Paxton throwing in ST, see that they have 6 starters and wind up flipping him to another team. Unless they move him to the pen? IDK. Pivetta probably has the lowest ceiling of the guys they project as starters, but you can probably count on 150 innings from him.

[moonslav59]

I just have a hunch that they get Paxton throwing in ST, see that they have 6 starters and wind up flipping him to another team. Unless they move him to the pen? IDK. Pivetta probably has the lowest ceiling of the guys they project as starters, but you can probably count on 150 innings from him.

 

Maybe since every SP'er we have is not expected to go 160+ IP, except maybe the worst one- Pivetta, we start with a 6 man rotation. I have always been against the idea, but if they ever are all healthy at the same time (LOL) , maybe it make some sense.

 

We don't really want Bello and Whitlock going 180+.

 

Expecting 180+ from Sale and Paxton is not only a pipedream, but may end up hurting them and the team more than helping either.

 

Kluber may get near 180, but 160 is probably a better idea- tops.

[mvp 78]

Maybe since every SP'er we have is not expected to go 160+ IP, except maybe the worst one- Pivetta, we start with a 6 man rotation. I have always been against the idea, but if they ever are all healthy at the same time (LOL) , maybe it make some sense.

 

We don't really want Bello and Whitlock going 180+.

 

Expecting 180+ from Sale and Paxton is not only a pipedream, but may end up hurting them and the team more than helping either.

 

Kluber may get near 180, but 160 is probably a better idea- tops.

 

Bello pitched 153 innings last season. Why can't he pitch 180 this year?

[notin]

Bello pitched 153 innings last season. Why can't he pitch 180 this year?

 

Only 57 of those were at the MLB level.

 

For a lot of pitchers, especially good prospects, MiLB innings are not the same. They face hitters with on average worse plate discipline, and also give up few inning-prolonging hits…

[mvp 78]

Only 57 of those were at the MLB level.

 

For a lot of pitchers, especially good prospects, MiLB innings are not the same. They face hitters with on average worse plate discipline, and also give up few inning-prolonging hits…

 

He's not going to be on an innings limit. He may not get to 180 innings because of performance, but for moon to say "we don't want Bello throwing 180+" is silly to me. If Bello gets above 180, it's because he's having a very good year.

[notin]

He's not going to be on an innings limit. He may not get to 180 innings because of performance, but for moon to say "we don't want Bello throwing 180+" is silly to me. If Bello gets above 180, it's because he's having a very good year.

 

Or it means Sale and Paxton spent too much time on the IL…

[mvp 78]

Or it means Sale and Paxton spent too much time on the IL…

 

Bello's innings aren't impacted by the rest of the staff, the bullpen's innings are.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He's not going to be on an innings limit. He may not get to 180 innings because of performance, but for moon to say "we don't want Bello throwing 180+" is silly to me. If Bello gets above 180, it's because he's having a very good year.

 

Dwight Gooden led the NL with 276 IP at age 20. That same year, Dennis Boyd led the Red Sox with 272 IP at age 25.

 

They used different pain-killers in 1985...

[mvp 78]

Dwight Gooden led the NL with 276 IP at age 20. That same year, Dennis Boyd led the Red Sox with 272 IP at age 25.

 

They used different pain-killers in 1985...

 

Who said 270 innings? Only 8 pitchers threw 200 or more last season. Only one threw over 210.

[notin]

Bello's innings aren't impacted by the rest of the staff, the bullpen's innings are.

 

If we ever see a week where Paxton, Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Pivetta and Bello are all healthy, do we (1) send Bello to Worcester or (2) go with a 6 man rotation?

[moonslav59]

Bello pitched 153 innings last season. Why can't he pitch 180 this year?

 

He can, but I doubt that is the goal. We will need to keep him under, so he can pitch 10-15 innings in the playoffs.

Edited January 6, 2023 by moonslav59

[notin]

Dwight Gooden led the NL with 276 IP at age 20. That same year, Dennis Boyd led the Red Sox with 272 IP at age 25.

 

They used different pain-killers in 1985...

 

Great, so you’re saying teams got high octane output from notorious cocaine abusers…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If we ever see a week where Paxton, Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Pivetta and Bello are all healthy, do we (1) send Bello to Worcester or (2) go with a 6 man rotation?

 

No, because one of the 2017 Trio will already be there on a rehab start.

[mvp 78]

If we ever see a week where Paxton, Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Pivetta and Bello are all healthy, do we (1) send Bello to Worcester or (2) go with a 6 man rotation?

 

Sending Bello to AAA just wastes his bullets. If anything, you just push one of the guys to the pen or you go with a 6 man rotation.

[mvp 78]

No, because one of the 2017 Trio will already be there on a rehab start.

 

Unfair to lump Kluber in with Sale and Paxton IMO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Great, so you’re saying teams got high octane output from notorious cocaine abusers…

 

Stop -- you know all pro ballplayers were 100% clean back then... until Clemens' wife had to prepare for an SI photo shoot.

[jacksonianmarch]

Darwinzon is done

[moonslav59]

Darwinzon is done

 

I totally agree with this DFA, even over Ort and Brasier.

 

This guy had ages to get his high BB/9 rate under control. It never got better.

 

One interesting number in his favor: All time K/9 Leaders in MLB (80+ IP career)

 

1. Hader 15.3

2. Diaz 14.8

3. Chapman 14.7

4. De. Williams 14.5

5. Betances 14.5

6. Kimbrel 14.4

7. Karinak 14.3

8. N Anderson 14.1

9. DHern 14.0

His 7.7 BB/9 rate was his downfall.

[mvp 78]

Sox could do a 2 for 1 deal, but no way would anyone want to do a 3 for 1 and then have to DFA 2 guys for what the Sox are giving up. More likely, the Sox are going to trade Brasier/Ort/Seabold/Dalbec for guys not on the 40 man rosters of other teams a la the Christian Koss deal.

 

Sox probably have 5-6 guys they need to clear off the current 40 man before next season starts.

DHern - DFA

Ort - DFA

Seabold - trade

Dalbec - trade

Duran - trade

Paxton - trade

 

1 down 5 to go!

[moonslav59]

1 down 5 to go!

 

My guess is Ort goes before Brasier, but I'm waiting for a 2 for 1 trade, any minute. Something like Murphy and Dalbec for M Rojas, or maybe Duran and DHern.

 

How about Duran, DHern and Ort for MRojas and Bleier- the LH'd RP'er on the Marlins? It might take Duran and Dalbec.

[dgalehouse]

Darwinzon just turned 26. He has a live arm. Some team will take him for sure.

[notin]

Darwinzon just turned 26. He has a live arm. Some team will take him for sure.

 

Absolutely. Again, why is he going over Ort, who would clear waivers?

[iortiz]

Sox could do a 2 for 1 deal, but no way would anyone want to do a 3 for 1 and then have to DFA 2 guys for what the Sox are giving up. More likely, the Sox are going to trade Brasier/Ort/Seabold/Dalbec for guys not on the 40 man rosters of other teams a la the Christian Koss deal.

 

Sox probably have 5-6 guys they need to clear off the current 40 man before next season starts.

DHern - DFA

Ort - DFA

Seabold - trade

Dalbec - trade

Duran - trade

Paxton - trade

 

Aside Duran who I still have high hopes, everyone else is trash. Add Brasier btw.

[moonslav59]

Absolutely. Again, why is he going over Ort, who would clear waivers?

 

Ort goes, next. The order matters little, but Ort is better.

[moonslav59]

Aside Duran who I still have high hopes, everyone else is trash. Add Brasier btw.

 

I still have more hope for Dalbec than Duran. The guy hit over .800 in his first 550 MLB PAs. Duran might have done that for a 10 PA stretch...maybe!

 

Seabold deserves another year in AAA with a chance to be called up again, if he's doing well.

 

Paxton is a good pitcher at that price. He's worth risking a roster slot on, especially when he can go on the 60 day IL after opening day, if needed and not take up a roster slot. He's got more hope than any of these guys plus Brasier combined.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

Paxton is a good pitcher at that price. He's worth risking a roster slot on, especially when he can go on the 60 day IL after opening day, if needed and not take up a roster slot. He's got more hope than any of these guys plus Brasier combined.

 

Generic maybe-living-in-the-past-intensity reason to be skeptical about Paxton: despite his stats, Yankee fans disliked him; how would that translate in Boston?

 

AL East and Tampa connections, at least, seem to be a factor with Bloom -- he likes recruiting ex-Rays for the rotation: Wacha in '22, Kluber in '23. He's even still recruiting pitchers for the Rays... and we can't wait for Raffy to spin Eflin's head around like the Exorcist for the next three years.

[moonslav59]

Generic maybe-living-in-the-past-intensity reason to be skeptical about Paxton: despite his stats, Yankee fans disliked him; how would that translate in Boston?

 

AL East and Tampa connections, at least, seem to be a factor with Bloom -- he likes recruiting ex-Rays for the rotation: Wacha in '22, Kluber in '23. He's even still recruiting pitchers for the Rays... and we can't wait for Raffy to spin Eflin's head around like the Exorcist for the next three years.

 

I'm just saying my hopes are greater for Paxton than the rest combined. Since my hopes are so low on the others, it's not really praising Paxton.