A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

I'm sure they meant fix the pen and it's ok to let Xander go and not sign anyone else. That makes sense.

 

Bogaerts had an .833 OPS with 15 HRs. Maybe Yoshida can do that…

[moonslav59]

I'm sure they meant fix the pen and it's ok to let Xander go and not sign anyone else. That makes sense.

 

Yes, I heard you and many others say exactly that.

[mvp 78]

Bogaerts had an .833 OPS with 15 HRs. Maybe Yoshida can do that…

 

MADtv Lowered Expectations vibes.

[mvp 78]

Yes, I heard you and many others say exactly that.

 

I never said that.

[moonslav59]

Bogaerts had an .833 OPS with 15 HRs. Maybe Yoshida can do that…

 

Jacko doesn't even think it's odds on Yoshida outhits Duran+ Pham+ Cordero + JBJ.

[mvp 78]

Jacko doesn't even think it's odds on Yoshida outhits Duran+ Pham+ Cordero + JBJ.

 

I'd take that bet.

[a700hitter]

You guys got your closer. You said that was what we needed.

The 35 year old closer will help, but the rest of the roster is not enough.

[moonslav59]

The 35 year old closer will help, but the rest of the roster is not enough.

 

Not yet, for sure, and maybe not in 2023, as I had high hopes.

 

Do you agree with these assessments? (Odds better than 50-50?)

 

C: McGuire/Wong = Vaz & Plawecki

1B: Casas (Dalbec/Hosmer)>> Dalbec/Cordero

2B: Healthy Story> 2022 Story

SS: ______

3B: Prime Devers> 2022 Devers

LF: Yoshida >>> Dugo/Pham/Duran/Cordero

CF: Healthy Kike> 2022 Kike

RF: Dugo/Refsnyder> JBJ, Duran/Cordero

DH: Hosmer/Dalbec/Refsnyder/Arroyo

 

I count 1 big bad and 2 bads

I count one pretty big good and 5 goods

 

Pitching

Pen:

Jansen, Martin, Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Joely, Crawford, Kelly/German/Mata >>>

Schreiber, Whitlock, Houck, Brasier, Davis, Sawamura, Strahm, Danish, Barnes, Diekman

 

Rotation:

Sale/Paxton, ______, Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta/Crawford/Winckowski/Seabold/Mata

Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, Nate, Wink, Crawford/Bello/Whitlock/Seabold

 

Granted, until we add a solid SP, the staff looks worse, but it's not as bad as it might seem. We lost about 500 IP of bad pitching along with the loss of good pitching, if you figure less IP from Crawford, Wink, Seabold, Brasier and a few others:

 

77 Crawford 5.47

70 Wink 5.89

62 Brasier 5.78

54 Davis 5.47

51 Sawamura 3.73

40 Danish 5.13

38 Diekman 4.23

28 Ort 6.35

25 Robles 5.84

18 Seabold 11.29

55+ from 8 players

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

What would Kluber, Andrus and Conforto or gallo cost, in total?

 

My guess is maybe $14M, $10M and $12M or about $36-38M.

 

1. L Yoshida LF/DH

2. R Kike CF

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Story 2B

5. L Casas 1B

6. L Conforto/Gallo RF

7. R Andrus SS

8. L Verdugo LF/DH/RF

9. L McGuire/ R Wong

Bench: L Hosmer or R Dalbec (one gets traded), R Arroyo, R Refsnyder

 

SP1: Sale & Paxton combined

SP2: Whitlock

SP3: Kluber

SP4: Bello

SP5: Pivetta

SP6/LR: Crawford or Winkowski (the other starts in AAA)

 

Closer: Jansen

RP2: Martin

RP3: Houck

RP4: Schreiber

RP5: Joely R.

RP6: Barnes

RP7: Brasier or Taylor (the other is traded)

RP8: Kelly/Mata/German (Walter/Murphy or Wink/Seabold)

 

 

[oldtimer]

What would Kluber, Andrus and Conforto or gallo cost, in total?

 

My guess is maybe $14M, $10M and $12M or about $36-38M.

 

1. L Yoshida LF/DH

2. R Kike CF

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Story 2B

5. L Casas 1B

6. L Conforto/Gallo RF

7. R Andrus SS

8. L Verdugo LF/DH/RF

9. L McGuire/ R Wong

Bench: L Hosmer or R Dalbec (one gets traded), R Arroyo, R Refsnyder

 

SP1: Sale & Paxton combined

SP2: Whitlock

SP3: Kluber

SP4: Bello

SP5: Pivetta

SP6/LR: Crawford or Winkowski (the other starts in AAA)

 

Closer: Jansen

RP2: Martin

RP3: Houck

RP4: Schreiber

RP5: Joely R.

RP6: Barnes

RP7: Brasier or Taylor (the other is traded)

RP8: Kelly/Mata/German (Walter/Murphy or Wink/Seabold)

 

 

 

My view is that with the loss of Bogey and JDM plus the uncertainty in the starting pitching area, we are somewhat less competitive than we were last season. Bloom is making noises about still being very active soliciting trades. As fans, we can talk until we are blue in the face but realistically we just have to await Bloom's moves, if any His reputation as a GM is at stake in the coming period before the start of Spring Training. Resetting this year while making measurable improvement may be all we can hope for this year.

[moonslav59]

My view is that with the loss of Bogey and JDM plus the uncertainty in the starting pitching area, we are somewhat less competitive than we were last season. Bloom is making noises about still being very active soliciting trades. As fans, we can talk until we are blue in the face but realistically we just have to await Bloom's moves, if any His reputation as a GM is at stake in the coming period before the start of Spring Training. Resetting this year while making measurable improvement may be all we can hope for this year.

 

The moves I mentioned plus a trade for a solid SP'er might make me think we have a good chance at the playoffs, especially since we won't be playing the AL East as much, and with the rules changing to help lefty batters, we can gain there, too.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR on the Sox...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/red-sox-notes-middle-infield-rotation-houck.html

 

They seem to think Story is our SS, unless an addition is made (Andrus or trade candidates). Kike at 2B, or we sign Segura or Drury for 2B. Not many CF options, though.

[mvp 78]

MLBTR on the Sox...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/red-sox-notes-middle-infield-rotation-houck.html

 

They seem to think Story is our SS, unless an addition is made (Andrus or trade candidates). Kike at 2B, or we sign Segura or Drury for 2B. Not many CF options, though.

 

You're telling me that if the Sox don't get a SS, that Story will have to play SS? Yeah, that tracks. Without bringing in a CFer (seems unlikely), Kiké isn't being moved. Seems like it's just going to be Arroyo and a hodgepodge at 2b.

[Hugh2]

Why does one of Hosmer/Dalbec have to be traded? I think one does at some point, but my guess is Dalbec could start the season in AAA.

[moonslav59]

You're telling me that if the Sox don't get a SS, that Story will have to play SS? Yeah, that tracks. Without bringing in a CFer (seems unlikely), Kiké isn't being moved. Seems like it's just going to be Arroyo and a hodgepodge at 2b.

 

They said it, not me.

 

I could see us signing Segura or Drury for 2B, maybe Andrus at SS. I don't think or want Kike moved from CF, especially with so few options out there to add for CF.

[mvp 78]

Why does one of Hosmer/Dalbec have to be traded? I think one does at some point, but my guess is Dalbec could start the season in AAA.

 

I think Dalbec has future value in BOS as a 1B/3B/LF/DH guy. I think they can use the first month or two to develop the defense. Just put Hosmer on the plank at that point.

[moonslav59]

I think Dalbec has future value in BOS as a 1B/3B/LF/DH guy. I think they can use the first month or two to develop the defense. Just put Hosmer on the plank at that point.

 

One will likely be gone by opening day. I think Hosmer matches up better with Casas, and if Yoshida plays mostly DH, lefty-righty doesn't matter.

[Bellhorn04]

The Dalbec/Hosmer DH platoon is still alive.

[Hugh2]

One will likely be gone by opening day. I think Hosmer matches up better with Casas, and if Yoshida plays mostly DH, lefty-righty doesn't matter.

 

I don't think that's true, I think one is likely gone by August 1st. But there's zero reasons to trade that depth away right now. I wouldn't be surprised if one is gone......But I don't think it's likely at all.

[moonslav59]

I don't think that's true, I think one is likely gone by August 1st. But there's zero reasons to trade that depth away right now. I wouldn't be surprised if one is gone......But I don't think it's likely at all.

 

I think the roster crunch will foce the need to not have so many 1B/DH types on the 40- not because either is worse than Brasier or ____.

[moonslav59]

The Dalbec/Hosmer DH platoon is still alive.

 

I think we add an OF'er and Yoshida/Dugo take over much of the DH role.

 

Our history of wanting plus D in RF steers me that way.

[notin]

The Dalbec/Hosmer DH platoon is still alive.

 

If the Sox sign Gallo, keeping Verdugo in LF, it pushes Yoshida to DH, and benches Hosmer/Dalbec…

[mvp 78]

One will likely be gone by opening day. I think Hosmer matches up better with Casas, and if Yoshida plays mostly DH, lefty-righty doesn't matter.

 

If Yoshida is the fulltime DH, Hosmer has basically no role on this team.

[mvp 78]

I don't think that's true, I think one is likely gone by August 1st. But there's zero reasons to trade that depth away right now. I wouldn't be surprised if one is gone......But I don't think it's likely at all.

 

Is Hosmer really "depth?"

[notin]

Is Hosmer really "depth?"

 

His philosophy is very deep…

[notin]

If Yoshida is the fulltime DH, Hosmer has basically no role on this team.

 

Point?

[Bobe2]

I think Dalbec has future value in BOS as a 1B/3B/LF/DH guy. I think they can use the first month or two to develop the defense. Just put Hosmer on the plank at that point.

 

The Sox said Dalbec is on the trading block a couple weeks ago

[moonslav59]

If Yoshida is the fulltime DH, Hosmer has basically no role on this team.

 

If Casas struggles vs lefties, then yes, Dalbec is a better fit.

 

It won't bother me, which one they choose to trade.

[mvp 78]

Point?

 

Hosmer should be given a ticket to the Sun.

[mvp 78]

The Sox said Dalbec is on the trading block a couple weeks ago

 

Did you believe them when they said they'd re-sign Xander?