A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe we'll get a Rich Hill half-year contract for a Christmas stocking stuffer.

[moonslav59]

That's a great summary in one sentence and it's giving me a headache, because it probably is a daymare -- an intern checking off task X-Y-Z: acquire Joely, Crook and Ho Park...

 

When did you join Old Red's gym? Ha... we should all be disturbed -- Sam Kennedy told us we're allowed to be.

 

Bloom and the boys just can't try to get away with stopgaps and taking fliers on pick-ups this winter. Can we all agree to that?

 

And before anyone reposts lists of all the great values Bloom found the past three years, let's not forget waiting until mid-March last year when he signed Diekman and Hansel Robles to address the bullpen.

 

New market prices are being established for actual talent, and the Red Sox need to operate in the same milieu as the other 29 franchises.

 

I'm still sticking to the belief that most, well actually all but the Story addition, were influenced by the necessity to stick to a tight budget while trying to fill more holes than the budget allowed. With virtually no farm infusions, except Houck, in 5 years, I fully understand why we ended up with guys named Marwin, Andriese, Robles and Diekman.

 

I expected that to change radically, this season, but unless we make a couple two or three for one trades, I'm not sure how some of these recent additions can fit into the 26 or 40 man roster I hoped for. It looks like Brasier will not be DFA'd, and while starting Crawford, Wink, Kelly, German and others in AAA can make room for 2 solid RP'er acquisitions, it would cause 40 man roster issues.

 

Maybe Blooms plan is to not add 5-6 players, like I thought, but to spend large on just 3-4- hopefully SS, RF, SP & maybe Closer.

 

I guess it wouldn't be the end of the world, if he ends up trading or DFA'ing 1 or 2 of the guys he just added, but that would not help his image very much.

 

More and more, I'm thinking a big prospect trade will happen, this winter- one where we free up 2 or maybe even 3 slots on the 40, but there are not many teams looking to add 3 to their 40, unless they are damn well worth it- all 3 of them.

[moonslav59]

Having Bloom in charge is just not a comforting feeling to me. I can’t see the Red Sox outbidding other teams for anyone either.

 

So far, I'm kinda happy he hasn't bid more for anyone who has signed, already. Even if we needed a 1Bman, the money Abreu got seems way too high.

[notin]

I have this disturbing vision of Bloom and his minions swamped in spreadsheets, hunting for value plays, shocked by the prices for top talent, and slightly paralyzed by all they have to do and all that's against them.

 

So far 29 other GMs are just as inactive, like they are every year.

[Old Red]

Of course my inner pom-pom waver clings to the hope that Bloom will soon make my nightmare look silly.

 

The worst part to me that even for the Red Sox own players Evol, Bogey, and Raffy Bloom won’t win any bidding wars let alone others on the market. The nightmare on the Old Yawkey Way might just turn out to be the real thing.

[notin]

That's a great summary in one sentence and it's giving me a headache, because it probably is a daymare -- an intern checking off task X-Y-Z: acquire Joely, Crook and Ho Park...

 

When did you join Old Red's gym? Ha... we should all be disturbed -- Sam Kennedy told us we're allowed to be.

 

Bloom and the boys just can't try to get away with stopgaps and taking fliers on pick-ups this winter. Can we all agree to that?

 

And before anyone reposts lists of all the great values Bloom found the past three years, let's not forget waiting until mid-March last year when he signed Diekman and Hansel Robles to address the bullpen.

 

New market prices are being established for actual talent, and the Red Sox need to operate in the same milieu as the other 29 franchises.

 

 

I’ve seen a few people citing how late in the off-season last year a lot of Sox moves were made as it should be proof of a loom’s indecisiveness or something. And not due to a lockout that ran from December 3rd to March 10th…

[Old Red]

I’ve seen a few people citing how late in the off-season last year a lot of Sox moves were made as it should be proof of a loom’s indecisiveness or something. And not due to a lockout that ran from December 3rd to March 10th…

 

I still believe the late signing of Story was, because of JH rabbit ears, and Nothing else. Letting Bogey get to FA was a bad move all the way around, and a more costly one. Same with the Yankees, and Judge.

[mvp 78]

Abreu may be the best piece that completes the Astros line-up, but a mid-30s hitter who just saw a dip in power numbers isn't the kind of guy a bad team with so many needs like Boston should invest in to build around.

 

The Red Sox have too many other pressing priorities to address first. They definitely need more consistent offensive contributors, but we all know the main focus should be on securing the services of the best possible pitching options while there are legitimately good ones still available.

 

Waiting until Spring Training to pick up mound leftovers isn't going to work this year.

 

There were a lot of people fretting elsewhere that "Red Sox target signs with Astros." I don't remember him being a target at all??? He just isn't a fit for all the reasons you've stated.

 

And yes, playing the musical chairs game with the pitching staff will not make for a good season in 2023.

 

It's Bloom's bed, he'll have to lie in it. If he has another mediocre offseason and they struggle, he needs to go.

[mvp 78]

I have this disturbing vision of Bloom and his minions swamped in spreadsheets, hunting for value plays, shocked by the prices for top talent, and slightly paralyzed by all they have to do and all that's against them.

 

Unfair to call them his minions since they came before him and will be here after he's gone. More likely he's just paralyzed by indecision.

[mvp 78]

Maybe we'll get a Rich Hill half-year contract for a Christmas stocking stuffer.

 

Acquiring enough starters to fill 162 games rather than a 5 man rotation.

[mvp 78]

So far 29 other GMs are just as inactive, like they are every year.

 

Yes.

 

However, the Sox need to show a little more aggressiveness than they have the past few offseasons.

 

The fear is that their current inaction will lead them to not sign a real SS, corner OFer or impact pitcher (either closer or SP).

[mvp 78]

The worst part to me that even for the Red Sox own players Evol, Bogey, and Raffy Bloom won’t win any bidding wars let alone others on the market. The nightmare on the Old Yawkey Way might just turn out to be the real thing.

 

Letting their current players go to FA is an ownership decision.

 

Lester

Ellsbury

Betts

Bogaerts

etc.

[notin]

Yes.

 

However, the Sox need to show a little more aggressiveness than they have the past few offseasons.

 

The fear is that their current inaction will lead them to not sign a real SS, corner OFer or impact pitcher (either closer or SP).

 

With the exception of last year pre-lockout, when was the last time any MLB team made the off-season exciting?

[mvp 78]

I’ve seen a few people citing how late in the off-season last year a lot of Sox moves were made as it should be proof of a loom’s indecisiveness or something. And not due to a lockout that ran from December 3rd to March 10th…

 

Last year's offseason was condensed into like a 36 hours signing period of insanity. He gets a pass for the timing of the moves.

 

Bloom was actually fairly active last season:

Paxton

Hill

Wacha

Diekman

Strahm

Story

Refsnyder

 

The actual moves themselves can be called into question for sure.

[Bellhorn04]

So far, I'm kinda happy he hasn't bid more for anyone who has signed, already. Even if we needed a 1Bman, the money Abreu got seems way too high.

 

All the prices are going to seem way too high this offseason, methinks. Might be the inflationary principle of too much money chasing too few goods.

[mvp 78]

With the exception of last year pre-lockout, when was the last time any MLB team made the off-season exciting?

 

There's always at least one team that gets overhyped due to "winning" the offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes.

 

However, the Sox need to show a little more aggressiveness than they have the past few offseasons.

 

The fear is that their current inaction will lead them to not sign a real SS, corner OFer or impact pitcher (either closer or SP).

 

The Red Sox are the team that needs to win this offseason the most.

 

Patience, discipline, reported interest and another last place finish just aren't going to cut it.

[Bellhorn04]

So far, I'm kinda happy he hasn't bid more for anyone who has signed, already. Even if we needed a 1Bman, the money Abreu got seems way too high.

 

Do you think we're going to get a bat like Abreu for cheap? Who might that be?

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox are the team that needs to win this offseason the most.

 

Patience, discipline, reported interest and another last place finish just aren't going to cut it.

 

I'm not going to freak out about their first move. I'm going to wait and see what it looks like when camp opens. I just don't want to hear "we have to be better" at any point next season.

[mvp 78]

Also, the Astros were able to sign Abreu because they are letting Verlander walk. They had 7 legitimate starters at one point and a lot of them a very cheap. When you can build from the farm, you can overpay for a guy or two and not worry about it. The Sox don't have that luxury in 2023.

[Bellhorn04]

Also, the Astros were able to sign Abreu because they are letting Verlander walk. They had 7 legitimate starters at one point and a lot of them a very cheap. When you can build from the farm, you can overpay for a guy or two and not worry about it. The Sox don't have that luxury in 2023.

 

The Sox don't have any luxuries at all. They're a 78 win team that has gotten significantly worse since the season ended.

[Hugh2]

Also, the Astros were able to sign Abreu because they are letting Verlander walk. They had 7 legitimate starters at one point and a lot of them a very cheap. When you can build from the farm, you can overpay for a guy or two and not worry about it. The Sox don't have that luxury in 2023.

 

It’s also a double whammy when the guys you did spend money on get hurt or underperform. It’s perfectly conceivable that a clean bill of health, some growth from the farm (Bello/Casas) and some good moves this off-season could quickly change things around. But one could be forgiven for being skeptical given the last few seasons.

[moonslav59]

The Sox don't have any luxuries at all. They're a 78 win team that has gotten significantly worse since the season ended.

 

I don't disagree, but we also lost some deadwood and Price's contract, so on paper, we should be able to improve.

 

Lost (could re-sign some):

 

Rank in PAs or IP

 

2. Bogey 131 OPS+

4. JD M 117

8. Vaz 109 (great fo a catcher)

10. JBJ 60

11. Cordero 92

12. Pham 86

15. Plawecki 61

20. Sanchez -6

22. Almonte 92

Likely Reduced Time:

7. Dalbec 80

13. Duran 78

21. Downs 17

 

If you combine the players in RED plus Shaw and Arauz, it's 1,380 PAs.

 

Bogey, JD and Vaz equal 1545 PAs.

 

Pitching (ERA+)

2. Wacha 127

3. Hill 98

4. Nate 109

12. Davis 77

13. Sawamura 113

14. Strahm 110

15. Danish 82

17. Diekman 100

19. Robles 73

21. Bazardo 156

22. Valdez 97

24. Familia 71

 

Reduction in IP?

9. Brasier 73

20. Seabold 38

 

Pitching looks much scarier than hitting. We lose more plus pitchers than minus, in terms of IP, than the hitting differential.

 

We should see more IP from:

5. Whitlock 122

6. Crawford 77

7. Wink 72

8. Schreiber 190

(10. Houck??? 134)

11. Bello 90

23. Kelly 109

26. Sale 141

27. German 25

N/A. Paxton N/A

Mata, Walter, Murphy and maybe Politi, Wallace or Ward

 

 

[Hugh2]

I don't disagree, but we also lost some deadwood and Price's contract, so on paper, we should be able to improve.

 

Lost (could re-sign some):

 

Rank in PAs or IP

 

2. Bogey 131 OPS+

4. JD M 117

8. Vaz 109 (great fo a catcher)

10. JBJ 60

11. Cordero 92

12. Pham 86

15. Plawecki 61

20. Sanchez -6

22. Almonte 92

Likely Reduced Time:

7. Dalbec 80

13. Duran 78

21. Downs 17

 

If you combine the players in RED plus Shaw and Arauz, it's 1,380 PAs.

 

Bogey, JD and Vaz equal 1545 PAs.

 

Pitching (ERA+)

2. Wacha 127

3. Hill 98

4. Nate 109

12. Davis 77

13. Sawamura 113

14. Strahm 110

15. Danish 82

17. Diekman 100

19. Robles 73

21. Bazardo 156

22. Valdez 97

24. Familia 71

 

Reduction in IP?

9. Brasier 73

20. Seabold 38

 

Pitching looks much scarier than hitting. We lose more plus pitchers than minus, in terms of IP, than the hitting differential.

 

We should see more IP from:

5. Whitlock 122

6. Crawford 77

7. Wink 72

8. Schreiber 190

(10. Houck??? 134)

11. Bello 90

23. Kelly 109

26. Sale 141

27. German 25

N/A. Paxton N/A

Mata, Walter, Murphy and maybe Politi, Wallace or Ward

 

 

 

If we see more IP from Crawford or Winc it would be because one of them takes an unexpected leap forward or this team is in big trouble. But Whitlock, Houck, and Bello all have the chance to add more value in 2023 and if they can make a few good moves the pitching should be much better. Unfortunately, that shouldn't be too hard to do after 2022.

[mvp 78]

The Sox don't have any luxuries at all. They're a 78 win team that has gotten significantly worse since the season ended.

 

They need at least one SP. They could use a CP.

 

If they don't come away with SS/OFer, they'll need to really explain what the short term plan is.

 

I don't really care about C/DH at the moment. Seems much lower priority to me?

[mvp 78]

It’s also a double whammy when the guys you did spend money on get hurt or underperform. It’s perfectly conceivable that a clean bill of health, some growth from the farm (Bello/Casas) and some good moves this off-season could quickly change things around. But one could be forgiven for being skeptical given the last few seasons.

 

That Sale contract is killing the Sox. Is it going to be a 4th lost season for him?

[moonslav59]

It’s also a double whammy when the guys you did spend money on get hurt or underperform. It’s perfectly conceivable that a clean bill of health, some growth from the farm (Bello/Casas) and some good moves this off-season could quickly change things around. But one could be forgiven for being skeptical given the last few seasons.

 

Yes, the potential is there, but unfortunately in both directions.

 

I'm on the optimistic side, but I have a lot of trepidation. Bloom's record on FA signings has not been great. The excuse of the tight budget only goes so far in mitigating some of the blame, but he has to do better. The Story signing is hard to judge, but it has to start working, and soon!

 

Blooms biggest FA signings, to date:

 

$140M/6 Story

$10M/1 Richards

$10M/1 Kike II

$14M/2 Kike I

$7M/1 Wacha

$6M/1 Perez I

$6M/1 Paxton

$5M/1 Hill

$5M/1 Perez II

$8M/2 Diekman (traded)

$3M/1 Marwin & Moreland

 

(Barnes extension at about $9M x 2)

[mvp 78]

If we see more IP from Crawford or Winc it would be because one of them takes an unexpected leap forward or this team is in big trouble. But Whitlock, Houck, and Bello all have the chance to add more value in 2023 and if they can make a few good moves the pitching should be much better. Unfortunately, that shouldn't be too hard to do after 2022.

 

I think Winckowski or Crawford could take a step forward, but I don't think it's likely. Maybe they can do it in a bullpen role?

 

The guys with the "impact" arms in the system are Bello, Mata, Wikelman and Perales. Only two have a shot to play a role in the short term. German, Fernandez and Wallace have velo, but various concerns.

[mvp 78]

Yes, the potential is there, but unfortunately in both directions.

 

I'm on the optimistic side, but I have a lot of trepidation. Bloom's record on FA signings has not been great. The excuse of the tight budget only goes so far in mitigating some of the blame, but he has to do better. The Story signing is hard to judge, but it has to start working, and soon!

 

Blooms biggest FA signings, to date:

 

$140M/6 Story

$10M/1 Richards

$10M/1 Kike II

$14M/2 Kike I

$7M/1 Wacha

$6M/1 Perez I

$6M/1 Paxton

$5M/1 Hill

$5M/1 Perez II

$8M/2 Diekman (traded)

$3M/1 Marwin & Moreland

 

(Barnes extension at about $9M x 2)

 

If you're going to add the Barnes extension, you should put the Whitlock extension in there.

 

The Story contract is fine. Unless he gets a career ending injury, he should be worth the money even if he plays 2b. The do-overs would be Paxton, Richards, Diekman. Those were fairly low stakes though.

[Hugh2]

I think Winckowski or Crawford could take a step forward, but I don't think it's likely. Maybe they can do it in a bullpen role?

 

The guys with the "impact" arms in the system are Bello, Mata, Wikelman and Perales. Only two have a shot to play a role in the short term. German, Fernandez and Wallace have velo, but various concerns.

 

This is what I was thinking as I posted this. I could see one of those guys growing into a bullpen role, but in that scenario, I wouldn't envision them getting more innings. About the same or a little less. I don't think they're 8th 9th inning guys. I think they COULD be good 7th/6th inning arms.