A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

I'm wondering, if we end up going for a guy like Verlander, so we don't hamper longer term budget issues. Moon

 

I've always advocated for adding starting pitching at the top, and not the bottom. The goal not only is to make the playoffs but enhance the team's chances via strong starting pitching. Hitters are unpredictable in a short series. Look at Aaron Judge this year and Mookie couple of years ago (?)

 

It's silly to extend Xander's contract for 6-7 years when the team wants to build the future around Devers. We have many considered to be the top pick in Mayer ready to move in as early as 2024.

 

We can live with a 3 year deal. We do have to role the dice once again on Chris Sale. Verlander and healthy Sale for next couple of years would go long way in getting us into the playoffs.

 

Also make a strong run at the Japanese free agent pitcher. $15M would do it.

 

Do it Bloom.

 

I'm always for building the rotation from the top. I think trading a couple of our top 10-12 prospects to get one makes more sense than signing a FA ace.

 

Part of the reason we were where we were from 2019-2022 was the Price signing and in the later years, the Sale extension.

 

I'm fine with signing an ace, as I was with Price and the Sale extension, but it is risky as hell putting such a large percentage of the player budget on 1-2 players.

[Nick]

I'm always for building the rotation from the top. I think trading a couple of our top 10-12 prospects to get one makes more sense than signing a FA ace.

 

Part of the reason we were where we were from 2019-2022 was the Price signing and in the later years, the Sale extension.

 

I'm fine with signing an ace, as I was with Price and the Sale extension, but it is risky as hell putting such a large percentage of the player budget on 1-2 players.

 

I'll take chance on 3 years of Verlander. I would gamble that he'd be healthy and good for two of the three years. Sales' deal comes off after 2024, unless he pitches well and we pick up his option.

 

That will give time for Bello, Whitlock (as a starter), Mata maybe Cutter to develop into bona fide starters.

 

According to Cot's, we have $81M (unless of course Cot is wrong on Hosmer, then we'll have $86M). Verlander and Senga would command say $55M.

 

 

SP Verlander

SP Sale

SP Senga

SP Pivetta

SP Whitlock

SP Bello

 

CC McGuire/Wong

1B Casas

2B Story

SS Arroyo

3B Devers

LF Verdugo

CF Kike

RF Refsnyder

DH Hosmer/Dalbec

 

We'll have $55M to fill in the roster spots where its weak. I'm guessing you can stretch $36M into 5 players, or average of $7M. We currently only have 6 players making more than $5.5M. Surely we can buy/trade some players for $7M and improve our roster.

 

Meanwhile we can reset after 2023 and then extend Devers next winter and really go for it.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I get the difference between non tendering a player and DFA'ing him, but if we DFA'd someone like Brasier before offering arb, is there a difference?

 

Speaking of DFA, if we add 4-7 players to the roster via free agency or trades that a re not 2 or 3 for 1's, here is my DFA list (some could be traded for a prospect not needing 40 man status.)

 

1. Ryan Brasier (projected to make $2.3M through arb)

 

2. Kaleb Ort (Guys like him are all over the place.)

 

3. DHern (Has some nasty stuff, but it's been a long wait- too long, for me.)

 

4. Josh Taylor (only if his health concerns have not improved) Tradable?

 

5. Ronaldo Hernandez (especially if we add a catcher) Could be traded.

 

6. Eric Hosmer (His free contract appeals to me- platoon DH?) Tradable?

 

(I'd try to trade at least 1 or 2 from Dalbec, Downs and Duran, despite their low stock numbers, so maybe we don't have to DFA the bottom guys on this list. Trading Chris Murphy might be an idea, too.)

 

My point is, nobody should feel crushed if we DFA or trade any of the guys I listed, but I'm not fully convinced Park and maybe even Joely Rodriguez is better than the last names listed.

 

[Nick]

I get the difference between non tendering a player and DFA'ing him, but if we DFA'd someone like Brasier before offering arb, is there a difference?

 

Speaking of DFA, if we add 4-7 players to the roster via free agency or trades that a re not 2 or 3 for 1's, here is my DFA list (some could be traded for a prospect not needing 40 man status.)

 

1. Ryan Brasier (projected to make $2.3M through arb)

 

2. Kaleb Ort (Guys like him are all over the place.)

 

3. DHern (Has some nasty stuff, but it's been a long wait- too long, for me.)

 

4. Josh Taylor (only if his health concerns have not improved) Tradable?

 

5. Ronaldo Hernandez (especially if we add a catcher) Could be traded.

 

6. Eric Hosmer (His free contract appeals to me- platoon DH?) Tradable?

 

(I'd try to trade at least 1 or 2 from Dalbec, Downs and Duran, despite their low stock numbers, so maybe we don't have to DFA the bottom guys on this list. Trading Chris Murphy might be an idea, too.)

 

My point is, nobody should feel crushed if we DFA or trade any of the guys I listed, but I'm not fully convinced Park and maybe even Joely Rodriguez is better than the last names listed.

 

 

All of this is moot, if we don't sign a legit Free Agent this winter. Hell we picked up Story last winter. Don't we need two of them assuming Xander is gone?

[Bellhorn04]

I get the difference between non tendering a player and DFA'ing him, but if we DFA'd someone like Brasier before offering arb, is there a difference?

 

Is DFA'ing someone you've offered arb to even legal, would be my first question.

[notin]

Is DFA'ing someone you've offered arb to even legal, would be my first question.

 

Why wouldn’t it be?

[Bellhorn04]

Why wouldn’t it be?

 

Beats me.

[moonslav59]

All of this is moot, if we don't sign a legit Free Agent this winter. Hell we picked up Story last winter. Don't we need two of them assuming Xander is gone?

 

We are going to spend, and IMO, more than 2020 & 2021 combined.

[Bellhorn04]

We are going to spend, and IMO, more than 2020 & 2021 combined.

 

Seems like a safe bet.

[notin]

Beats me.

 

An arbitration is a non-guaranteed one year contract of value TBD. If you can DFA a guaranteed contract, I don’t see the difference…

[moonslav59]

An arbitration is a non-guaranteed one year contract of value TBD. If you can DFA a guaranteed contract, I don’t see the difference…

 

But if you DFA after the arb, you are on the hook for the salary minus min wage, right?

 

My thought was about DFAing Brasier before arb, and if that is the plan why didn’t we just non tender him?

 

I’m thinking he’ll be back which basically leaves room for just more RP addition, even with Kelly and German starting in AAA.

[notin]

But if you DFA after the arb, you are on the hook for the salary minus min wage, right?

 

My thought was about DFAing Brasier before arb, and if that is the plan why didn’t we just non tender him?

 

I’m thinking he’ll be back which basically leaves room for just more RP addition, even with Kelly and German starting in AAA.

 

 

I think they tendered Brasier arbitration because the Sox have zero plans to DFA him.

 

While Brasier has been high on MY DFA candidate list for a while now, (years, actually) the Sox simply do not care for my input…

[moonslav59]

I think they tendered Brasier arbitration because the Sox have zero plans to DFA him.

 

While Brasier has been high on MY DFA candidate list for a while now, (years, actually) the Sox simply do not care for my input…

 

I just don’t see $2.3M in him. I barely think he’s even worth consideration at the minimum.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Senga + Eovaldi

 

... so Senga + Eovaldi > value

 

I just don't see acquiring an over-40 starter as the staff anchor of a ship that hasn't even been built yet.

 

Trading a prospect package for an under-30 arm with at least ace potential is a better path to longer term stability.

[notin]

I just don’t see $2.3M in him. I barely think he’s even worth consideration at the minimum.

 

I’ve been anti-Brasier for years. But I suppose the counter argument is whatever other reliever you get for $2.3mill isn’t going to be substantially better…

[notin]

Senga + Eovaldi

 

... so Senga + Eovaldi > value

 

I just don't see acquiring an over-40 starter as the staff anchor of a ship that hasn't even been built yet.

 

Trading a prospect package for an under-30 arm with at least ace potential is a better path to longer term stability.

 

I don’t see getting Verlander or deGrom…

[dgalehouse]

Fixing the atrocious bullpen is much more important than acquiring an " Ace " . You should never go into hock for a new Maserati when your roof is leaking.

[notin]

Bullpen today

 

Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Brasier, Rodriguez, Taylor/Kelly.

 

That leaves two open slots.

 

Fulmer and Estevez, barring any trades…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bullpen today

 

Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Brasier, Rodriguez, Taylor/Kelly.

 

That leaves two open slots.

 

Fulmer and Estevez, barring any trades…

 

There is a roadblock with Fulmer -- which I hope the Brink's truck that GM Brian O'Halloran or a Red Sox intern is presumably driving will plow right through this winter.

 

In three Boston years, Chaim Bloom has never acquired any relievers [I]when[/i] they were actually good. Bloom has signed or traded for plenty of bullpen arms, but all were either other clubs' discards, castoffs, rehabbers, reclamations, or comebackers.

 

And that includes Yankee guys like Ottavino, coming off a crappy stint they couldn't wait to escape from, and Whitlock, a starter who became gold out of the pen while healing from TJ.

 

But I'm not going to blame Bloom, because this could have been a company policy, and not just a strategy. Hopefully, it will change this offseason... because it almost has to...

[notin]

There is a roadblock with Fulmer -- which I hope the Brink's truck that GM Brian O'Halloran or a Red Sox intern is presumably driving will plow right through this winter.

 

In three Boston years, Chaim Bloom has never acquired any relievers [I]when[/i] they were actually good. Bloom has signed or traded for plenty of bullpen arms, but all were either other clubs' discards, castoffs, rehabbers, reclamations, or comebackers.

 

And that includes Yankee guys like Ottavino, coming off a crappy stint they couldn't wait to escape from, and Whitlock, a starter who became gold out of the pen while healing from TJ.

 

But I'm not going to blame Bloom, because this could have been a company policy, and not just a strategy. Hopefully, it will change this offseason... because it almost has to...

 

It was probably driven by finances and available options…

[Bellhorn04]

There is a roadblock with Fulmer -- which I hope the Brink's truck that GM Brian O'Halloran or a Red Sox intern is presumably driving will plow right through this winter.

 

In three Boston years, Chaim Bloom has never acquired any relievers [I]when[/i] they were actually good. Bloom has signed or traded for plenty of bullpen arms, but all were either other clubs' discards, castoffs, rehabbers, reclamations, or comebackers.

 

And that includes Yankee guys like Ottavino, coming off a crappy stint they couldn't wait to escape from, and Whitlock, a starter who became gold out of the pen while healing from TJ.

 

But I'm not going to blame Bloom, because this could have been a company policy, and not just a strategy. Hopefully, it will change this offseason... because it almost has to...

 

Sadly, the one arguable exception is Diekman, a signing that to me remains inexplicable.

[Bellhorn04]

Fixing the atrocious bullpen is much more important than acquiring an " Ace " . You should never go into hock for a new Maserati when your roof is leaking.

 

Not bad, Denny. We do need a starter or two as well. We need all sorts of pitching.

[notin]

There is a roadblock with Fulmer -- which I hope the Brink's truck that GM Brian O'Halloran or a Red Sox intern is presumably driving will plow right through this winter.

 

In three Boston years, Chaim Bloom has never acquired any relievers [I]when[/i] they were actually good. Bloom has signed or traded for plenty of bullpen arms, but all were either other clubs' discards, castoffs, rehabbers, reclamations, or comebackers.

 

And that includes Yankee guys like Ottavino, coming off a crappy stint they couldn't wait to escape from, and Whitlock, a starter who became gold out of the pen while healing from TJ.

 

But I'm not going to blame Bloom, because this could have been a company policy, and not just a strategy. Hopefully, it will change this offseason... because it almost has to...

 

 

Actually I think some of this is just your perception.

 

For example, you single out Ottavino as struggling in NY, presumably based on his 5.89 ERA. But that year, Ottavino made 24 appearances and only gave up runs in 5 of them. And only more than one run twice.

 

His ERA was so high because of one singular bad outing in which he gave up 6 ER. One half his season total.

 

Was he really struggling when Bloom acquired him?

 

So yes Ottavino had a 5.89 ERA. But he also delivered goose eggs in 19 of his 24 outings that year…

Edited November 27, 2022 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Actually I think some of this is just your perception.

 

For example, you single out Ottavino as struggling in NY, presumably based on his 5.89 ERA. But that year, Ottavino made 24 appearances and only gave up runs in 5 of them. And only more than one run twice.

 

His ERA was so high because of one singular bad outing in which he gave up 6 ER. One half his season total.

 

Was he really struggling when Bloom acquired him?

 

So yes Ottavino had a 5.89 ERA. But he also delivered goose eggs in 19 of his 24 outings that year…

 

Cite all the stats you want to; I only have the ear test -- listening to many Yankee fans I know who never trusted Ottavino and dreaded him in any big moment or game.

 

I also know a kid who literally burned his Cole t-shirt. Barbarians...

[Bellhorn04]

Ottavino would have been a good signing for 2022.

[Bellhorn04]

Cite all the stats you want to; I only have the ear test -- listening to many Yankee fans I know who never trusted Ottavino and dreaded him in any big moment or game.

 

I also know a kid who literally burned his Cole t-shirt. Barbarians...

 

Yankee fans are even harder on their team than Red Sox fans are. They booed Judge.

[notin]

Yankee fans are even harder on their team than Red Sox fans are. They booed Judge.

 

You know it’s bad when the closer on the other team calls out for Yankee fans to stop booing Judge…

[notin]

Ottavino would have been a good signing for 2022.

 

Absolutely…

[moonslav59]

Sadly, the one arguable exception is Diekman, a signing that to me remains inexplicable.

 

He wasn't good before we got him.

 

I tried to tell you guys!

 

[moonslav59]

Ottavino would have been a good signing for 2022.

 

Ottavino has been a good to very good RP'er for almost his whole career. He had like one bad year with the Rockies and an 18 IP 2020 season that apparently made him no good anymore.

 

He didn't do great for us, but a .728 OPS Against was not too bad, and it was .621 in high leverage was good.

 

He was no Kimbrel, but he was good before we got him.