A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

I apologize it’s 2-3 years younger, which still, assuming you’re trying to sign these guys for roughly 4 years that’s a big deal. Also Nate will net you a pick and those guys won’t cost you one.

 

Would I want Walker for 4 years? Probably not. I'm not sure I'd want Taillon for 4 year either. You'd be paying a premium for Nick Pivetta production.

[mvp 78]

MLBTR reports the Astros are looking for a lefty corner OF'er.

 

They almost traded Urquidy at the deadline. BTV accepts Dugo for Urquidy & Neris.

 

We'd then need 2 OF'ers not one.

 

Figure it out later.

[Hugh2]

Would I want Walker for 4 years? Probably not. I'm not sure I'd want Taillon for 4 year either. You'd be paying a premium for Nick Pivetta production.

 

If you take away Eovalids career years last year (I know I know cherry picking) the best season he’s ever had was a 3.3 fwar almost a decade ago. Take that year away and Taillon returns a similar value. If she projections mean anything to you Nate has that disadvantage too.

 

I do not hate a Nate resigning. I just don’t hate Taillon/Senga/draft pick either.

[Hugh2]

Eovaldi also comes with draft pick loss unlike all those other pitchers, making him less attractive to other teams. This might make Nate a lot cheaper than those other options. I’m opting for the upside Taillon may posses, but I like Nate back here too for the right price.

 

Nate shouldn’t stop you from signing Senga if you wanted. I like that too.

[moonslav59]

Let's say, for argument's sake, we bring back Bogey at $26M x 6 or 7 years and Nate at $15M x 2 or 3 years. That's $41M out of the $86-91M or so we have to spend. That leaves $45-50M left to add at least one SP (Wacha/Hill replaced), a RF'er (replace JBJ/Pham/Duran), and 2-3 solid RP'ers. That's assuming no upgrade at DH, where we may see a mix of Dalbec/Hosmer/Refsnyder/Arroyo/EValdez or Catcher (McGuire, Wong, RHern/CHamilton)

 

It's doable, but I do worry about our two biggest winter moves being bring back our two best players, who are both on the wrong side of 30.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi also comes with draft pick loss unlike all those other pitchers, making him less attractive to other teams. This might make Nate a lot cheaper than those other options. I’m opting for the upside Taillon may posses, but I like Nate back here too for the right price.

 

Nate shouldn’t stop you from signing Senga if you wanted. I like that too.

 

In theory, we should be able to outbid others for Nate, since they'd lose a draft pick by signing him, but we gain one by not signing him, so I think they cancel out each other.

 

We could sign Correa, Senga, 2 solid RP'ers, and a decent non-QO RF'er and walk away with a better team AND two extra draft picks. If we make a key trade, we could be looking really good.

[mvp 78]

Eovaldi also comes with draft pick loss unlike all those other pitchers, making him less attractive to other teams. This might make Nate a lot cheaper than those other options. I’m opting for the upside Taillon may posses, but I like Nate back here too for the right price.

 

Nate shouldn’t stop you from signing Senga if you wanted. I like that too.

 

What's Taillon's upside? 3 fWAR? His velo is 2 mph down from his 3+ fWAR days in 17-18. I don't think that's coming back in this lifetime.

[Hugh2]

What's Taillon's upside? 3 fWAR? His velo is 2 mph down from his 3+ fWAR days in 17-18. I don't think that's coming back in this lifetime.

 

Eovaldi has a career FIP of 3.83 compared to 3.80 for Taillon who also sports a better k/bb ratio because of better control. If Taillons velocity ever takes a tick back up and his K% goes up into his 30’s just like Nate did he could be solid #2 pitcher or more, I’d not he’s still a solid #3:

 

I like Nate…I just like Taillon too. If the Sox lose out on Senga then why not Taillon/Eovaldi? Heck that might be a safer bet then going after Senga.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi has a career FIP of 3.83 compared to 3.80 for Taillon who also sports a better k/bb ratio because of better control. If Taillons velocity ever takes a tick back up and his K% goes up into his 30’s just like Nate did he could be solid #2 pitcher or more, I’d not he’s still a solid #3:

 

I like Nate…I just like Taillon too. If the Sox lose out on Senga then why not Taillon/Eovaldi? Heck that might be a safer bet then going after Senga.

 

The no QO makes Taillon an obvious Sox target.

 

I see this:

 

Taillon + Nate's draft pick > Nate and no extra draft pick.

 

I get your point about both, and if it would force Whitlock back to the pen, we'd get 3 pluses out of signing both.

 

I'm not sure they want 2 SP'ers, though. I think they really like Bello and Whitlock as our 3-4's and Pivetta as our 5.

 

Count Sale & Paxton as one, between them- I know, that's a stretch too- and it looks like we will add just 1 SP. We also have Crawford, Wink, Mata, Walter and maybe TWard as starter depth.

[mvp 78]

Eovaldi has a career FIP of 3.83 compared to 3.80 for Taillon who also sports a better k/bb ratio because of better control. If Taillons velocity ever takes a tick back up and his K% goes up into his 30’s just like Nate did he could be solid #2 pitcher or more, I’d not he’s still a solid #3:

 

I like Nate…I just like Taillon too. If the Sox lose out on Senga then why not Taillon/Eovaldi? Heck that might be a safer bet then going after Senga.

 

Are we talking 4 years for Eovaldi and 4 years for Taillon?

 

Since 2016:

Eovaldi 3.93 k/bb, xFIP 3.79

Taillon 3.66 k/bb, xFIP 3.89

 

It probably comes down to personal preference.

[Hugh2]

The no QO makes Taillon an obvious Sox target.

 

I see this:

 

Taillon + Nate's draft pick > Nate and no extra draft pick.

 

I get your point about both, and if it would force Whitlock back to the pen, we'd get 3 pluses out of signing both.

 

I'm not sure they want 2 SP'ers, though. I think they really like Bello and Whitlock as our 3-4's and Pivetta as our 5.

 

Count Sale & Paxton as one, between them- I know, that's a stretch too- and it looks like we will add just 1 SP. We also have Crawford, Wink, Mata, Walter and maybe TWard as starter depth.

 

I don’t think it automatically forces Whitlock back to the pen. It could, but If they do that they need to keep him there. If the Sox want to honestly give Whitlock a chance at starting they have to commit to it, pencil him in as rhe #5 guy. If everyone shows up healthy you roll out a 6 man until things work themselves out.

 

Wouldn’t mind seeing Paxton as a swing guy, I don’t think he could handle a starter load anyways. And hypothetically Bello could start 2023 in AAA, although that’s not optimal. But you can never have enough pitching. NEVER. I want

 

Sale

2 of (Senga/Tallion/Walker/Kluber/Eovaldi)

Bello

Whitlock

Pivetta

Paxton.

[mvp 78]

The no QO makes Taillon an obvious Sox target.

 

It makes him an obvious EVERY TEAM target. The problem is that you pay a premium to bring him here. Is it worth it?

[Hugh2]

Without additions, If a guy or two goes down we are back to Crawford and Winkowski starting again.

 

No…just no.

[mvp 78]

I don’t think it automatically forces Whitlock back to the pen. It could, but If they do that they need to keep him there. If the Sox want to honestly give Whitlock a chance at starting they have to commit to it, pencil him in as rhe #5 guy. If everyone shows up healthy you roll out a 6 man until things work themselves out.

 

Wouldn’t mind seeing Paxton as a swing guy, I don’t think he could handle a starter load anyways. And hypothetically Bello could start 2023 in AAA, although that’s not optimal. But you can never have enough pitching. NEVER. I want

 

Sale

2 of (Senga/Tallion/Walker/Kluber/Eovaldi)

Bello

Whitlock

Pivetta

Paxton.

 

Rosters ARE larger now. Did any MLB teams go with a 6 man rotation for a significant stretch during 2022? I don't remember it happening.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think it automatically forces Whitlock back to the pen. It could, but If they do that they need to keep him there. If the Sox want to honestly give Whitlock a chance at starting they have to commit to it, pencil him in as rhe #5 guy. If everyone shows up healthy you roll out a 6 man until things work themselves out.

 

Wouldn’t mind seeing Paxton as a swing guy, I don’t think he could handle a starter load anyways. And hypothetically Bello could start 2023 in AAA, although that’s not optimal. But you can never have enough pitching. NEVER. I want

 

Sale

2 of (Senga/Tallion/Walker/Kluber/Eovaldi)

Bello

Whitlock

Pivetta

Paxton.

 

I doubt we go 6 man, but with the recent namby-pamby treatment of starters, maybe that is the next trend.

 

I'm all for beefing up the rotation. I'd add two in a heartbeat. I just don't think the Sox will.

[moonslav59]

Rosters ARE larger now. Did any MLB teams go with a 6 man rotation for a significant stretch during 2022? I don't remember it happening.

 

I think the Astros did, but not for too long, and they had 7 quality SP'ers on their roster, even after trading Odorizzi.

[mvp 78]

Without additions, If a guy or two goes down we are back to Crawford and Winkowski starting again.

 

No…just no.

 

Depending on what happens this offseason: Mata, Murphy, Walter, Ward.

[Hugh2]

Depending on what happens this offseason: Mata, Murphy, Walter, Ward.

 

I’m not sure how much better that group is, Mata I have high hopes for but he might be a future stud closer too. The rest of them might be better relievers. Murphy and Walter might be good back end starters. The bar might be set a little lower as LHPers

[mvp 78]

I doubt we go 6 man, but with the recent namby-pamby treatment of starters, maybe that is the next trend.

 

I'm all for beefing up the rotation. I'd add two in a heartbeat. I just don't think the Sox will.

 

There's always room for Aaron Cooke and Carlos "Hi Ho" Silva.

[moonslav59]

It makes him an obvious EVERY TEAM target. The problem is that you pay a premium to bring him here. Is it worth it?

 

Personally, they all will be significant overpays. It's really more about picking your poison or the least likely to be poison.

 

I lean towards the shorter deals on these type signings.

[Hugh2]

Rosters ARE larger now. Did any MLB teams go with a 6 man rotation for a significant stretch during 2022? I don't remember it happening.

 

For a prolonged period of time? Not that I can remember, but we’ve seen it for short stretches before.

[Hugh2]

It makes him an obvious EVERY TEAM target. The problem is that you pay a premium to bring him here. Is it worth it?

 

This is check mark in the “resign Eovaldi” box

[moonslav59]

There's always room for Aaron Cooke and Carlos "Hi Ho" Silva.

 

I think the Sox expect more than 33 total starts from Sale & Paxton combined- like it or not/ believe it or not.

Bello, Whitlock and Pivetta fill 3 more.

I think they view Crawford, Winckowski, Seabold, Mata, Walter, Ward and maybe even Houck back to the rotation as better than Cooke & Silva.

 

I'm not agreeing with this view, but the depth looks better than the last few years.

[mvp 78]

I’m not sure how much better that group is, Mata I have high hopes for but he might be a future stud closer too. The rest of them might be better relievers. Murphy and Walter might be good back end starters. The bar might be set a little lower as LHPers

 

Hard to say what Ward is? Even pre-surgery, he seemed to get bye in spite of his high bb rate. SoxProspects liked him, but were unsure how his stuff would play at higher levels.

 

Walter should be a fair back end of the rotation guy, but coming the injury is a question mark. Always old for his level, but did well in AA.

 

Murphy is probably just a reliever, I'll give you that. They may give him a few spot starts.

 

Mata should be the best out of this bunch. I think he'd be a lights out late inning guy if he scrapped one of his offspeed pitches.

[mvp 78]

This is check mark in the “resign Eovaldi” box

 

I think he could be a little cheaper due to age, QO and maybe his comfort level in BOS?

[mvp 78]

I think the Sox expect more than 33 total starts from Sale & Paxton combined- like it or not/ believe it or not.

 

I want to believe.

[Hugh2]

Hard to say what Ward is? Even pre-surgery, he seemed to get bye in spite of his high bb rate. SoxProspects liked him, but were unsure how his stuff would play at higher levels.

 

Walter should be a fair back end of the rotation guy, but coming the injury is a question mark. Always old for his level, but did well in AA.

 

Murphy is probably just a reliever, I'll give you that. They may give him a few spot starts.

 

Mata should be the best out of this bunch. I think he'd be a lights out late inning guy if he scrapped one of his offspeed pitches.

 

I mean, this is probably insanely way too premature but I kind of want to move Mata to the pen and groom him for a closer role now, with the hopes he’s a staple in the Boston pen by mid season next year. Maybe get a proven guy to close games with him for 2023

[moonslav59]

For a prolonged period of time? Not that I can remember, but we’ve seen it for short stretches before.

 

I could be wrong, but I think the Astros went from late April to late August and for part of September with a 6 man rotation.

 

Verlander, Valdez, Garcia, Odorizzi, Javier & Urquidy. When they traded Odorizzi, McCullers returned from injury to take the 6th slot. I think Odorizzi missed a few starts in the middle, and they went with 5 for a stretch, but then later Hunter Brown got a couple starts that made a 7 man rotation for 2 cycles in September.

 

Looking at the GS numbers, Valdez had 31, which you can't get on a true 6 man rotation for a big chunk of the season, so maybe I'm wrong,

 

31 Valdez

28 Verlander

28 Urquidy

28 Garcia

25 Javier

12 Odorizzi

8 McCullers

2 Brown

 

Javier was in the pen for 5 games, but everyone else, except Brown were pretty much starters.

 

I think Ordorizzi & McCullers were the only guys missing time with injury. You'd expect 32-33 starts from Valdez, Verlander, Garcia and Urquidy had there been a strict 5 man all year.

[moonslav59]

I want to believe.

 

I just can't even think about wanting to believe, anymore.

[mvp 78]

I mean, this is probably insanely way too premature but I kind of want to move Mata to the pen and groom him for a closer role now, with the hopes he’s a staple in the Boston pen by mid season next year. Maybe get a proven guy to close games with him for 2023

 

With Whitlock in the rotation, it makes sense.

 

Houck starts off as the closer, but moves back to set up guy.