A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

If that happens I predict there will also be a new third baseman in Boston.

 

The Sox won't pay both Correa and Devers, who will also fetch the best trade return of any Sox MLBer this winter.

 

Plus, Correa may be amenable to moving positions eventually, as he already played third for Cora in international ball in the past ; this will make for smoother transitions in the future.

 

Bogaerts better be amendable to moving off SS someday anyway. 8 years from now, he's defense is going to be horrific.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

In each of the last two winters, Chaim Bloom has made a surprise trade involving an outfielder with two years left of control. Could Alex Verdugo follow Andrew Benintendi and Hunter Renfroe out the door? Some within Red Sox are down on Verdugo due to numbers (not average, but everything else) regressing across the board as well as questions about Verdugo’s preparation and unique routine throughout the year.

 

If so, they are a year too late in trading him. His value is going down each season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bogaerts better be amendable to moving off SS someday anyway. 8 years from now, he's defense is going to be horrific.

 

It does seem like a potential double standard for him, since he stated he's dug in at short in Boston... but may have to change his tune in negotiations with another club willing to give him his proper respect...

[notin]

@ChrisCotillo

In each of the last two winters, Chaim Bloom has made a surprise trade involving an outfielder with two years left of control. Could Alex Verdugo follow Andrew Benintendi and Hunter Renfroe out the door? Some within Red Sox are down on Verdugo due to numbers (not average, but everything else) regressing across the board as well as questions about Verdugo’s preparation and unique routine throughout the year.

 

If so, they are a year too late in trading him. His value is going down each season.

 

I mentioned this a while back, almost verbatim.

 

As for his dropping value, that applies to nearly every arb-eligible player that loses a year of control while simultaneously getting a raise…

[notin]

Bogaerts better be amendable to moving off SS someday anyway. 8 years from now, he's defense is going to be horrific.

 

Unless he gets fully automated…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Both Bloom and Scott Boras, Bogey's agent, like to wait until the last possible minute before making deals -- mulling every last offer and/or squeezing every last penny.

 

But Chaim Bloom simply cannot wait until just before Spring Training to make serious moves and invest serious resources. Not this winter. The Xander situation must be resolved, one way or the other, ASAP.

 

Correa is another Boras' client, but we already know he's leaving $35M AAV (for each of two more years) in Minnesota. Does anyone really think he and his agent aren't confident he'll get the same rate at more years somewhere else?

 

What makes more sense for Boston: keeping X and Devers for close to $400 million... or paying Correa 6 for $210 and swapping Raffy for a good young pitcher?

[mvp 78]

I mentioned this a while back, almost verbatim.

 

As for his dropping value, that applies to nearly every arb-eligible player that loses a year of control while simultaneously getting a raise…

 

What is the unique "routine" that they are questioning?

[mvp 78]

Both Bloom and Scott Boras, Bogey's agent, like to wait until the last possible minute before making deals -- mulling every last offer and/or squeezing every last penny.

 

But Chaim Bloom simply cannot wait until just before Spring Training to make serious moves and invest serious resources. Not this winter. The Xander situation must be resolved, one way or the other, ASAP.

 

Correa is another Boras' client, but we already know he's leaving $35M AAV (for each of two more years) in Minnesota. Does anyone really think he and his agent aren't confident he'll get the same rate at more years somewhere else?

 

What makes more sense for Boston: keeping X and Devers for close to $400 million... or paying Correa 6 for $210 and swapping Raffy for a good young pitcher?

 

If Correa is 6/210, you can still probably afford Raffy if you want.

[dgalehouse]

What is the unique "routine" that they are questioning?

 

Cotillo is being a little too ambiguous . People are going to try and read between the lines to figure out just what he is talking about.

[notin]

Both Bloom and Scott Boras, Bogey's agent, like to wait until the last possible minute before making deals -- mulling every last offer and/or squeezing every last penny.

 

But Chaim Bloom simply cannot wait until just before Spring Training to make serious moves and invest serious resources. Not this winter. The Xander situation must be resolved, one way or the other, ASAP.

 

Correa is another Boras' client, but we already know he's leaving $35M AAV (for each of two more years) in Minnesota. Does anyone really think he and his agent aren't confident he'll get the same rate at more years somewhere else?

 

What makes more sense for Boston: keeping X and Devers for close to $400 million... or paying Correa 6 for $210 and swapping Raffy for a good young pitcher?

 

 

Correa is represented by WME Baseball per his b-r.com page. They’re not necessarily any easier and he could fire them and hire Boras any second now…

[notin]

If Correa is 6/210, you can still probably afford Raffy if you want.

 

The Sox would have nearly $90mill in AAV tied up at second, short, and third…

[mvp 78]

Cotillo is being a little too ambiguous . People are going to try and read between the lines to figure out just what he is talking about.

 

The only thing he mentions in the story is that he likes to take batting practice in the cage inside rather than on the field.

[mvp 78]

The Sox would have nearly $90mill in AAV tied up at second, short, and third…

 

For now.

[moonslav59]

My prediction, as of now (not my wish list)...

 

We stay under the tax line in 2023.

We extend Devers with the start date of 2024.

We sign Dansby Swanson to $110M/5.

We sign Jameson Taillon to $60M/4.

We sign Mitch Haniger to $44M/3.

We sign Rafael Montero to $25M/3.

We re-sign Matt Strahm to $9M/2

We trade Houck, Rafaela & Wikelman for Pablo Lopez (accepted on BTV.)

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

Both Bloom and Scott Boras, Bogey's agent, like to wait until the last possible minute before making deals -- mulling every last offer and/or squeezing every last penny.

 

But Chaim Bloom simply cannot wait until just before Spring Training to make serious moves and invest serious resources. Not this winter. The Xander situation must be resolved, one way or the other, ASAP.

 

Correa is another Boras' client, but we already know he's leaving $35M AAV (for each of two more years) in Minnesota. Does anyone really think he and his agent aren't confident he'll get the same rate at more years somewhere else?

 

What makes more sense for Boston: keeping X and Devers for close to $400 million... or paying Correa 6 for $210 and swapping Raffy for a good young pitcher?

 

Maybe the Astro's success is because they were willing to lose Correa since they has an upcoming and low cost shortstop. Saved them a ton to spend elsewhere. Food for thought.

[moonslav59]

Maybe the Astro's success is because they were willing to lose Correa since they has an upcoming and low cost shortstop. Saved them a ton to spend elsewhere. Food for thought.

 

And also Springer and Cole.

 

It is a pattern, and their pattern works.

[Old Red]

And also Springer and Cole.

 

It is a pattern, and their pattern works.

 

Of course they have had people that make it work, and the jury is still out on Bloom to be able to do that.Three hundred loss seasons in a row in the early teens, and hitting on #1 picks were a big help.

[moonslav59]

Of course they have had people that make it work, and the jury is still out on Bloom to be able to do that.Three hundred loss seasons in a row in the early teens, and hitting on #1 picks were a big help.

 

Those high picks did help, but they also had their share of hic-ups in drafting, including losing several picks over the cheating incident and picking Mark Appel & Brady Aiken with two of the 4 straight number one picks they had from 2012-2015. No doubt these first round picks nailed it:

 

2011 Springer 11th

2012 Correa 1st

2015 Bregman 1st

2016 Tucker 5th

 

They also traded for Yordan Alvarez before he even played one game in the minors. IFAs include Altuve, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and Urguidy. Javier was a minor league FA signing in 2015. Hunter Brown a 5th round pick in '19, and Jeremy Pena a 3rd round pick in '18.

 

The current Astros GM, James Click, who became their GM in 2020 got his first MLB job with the Rays thanks to a recommendation from Chaim Bloom. He has made some key moves, but much of what the Astros have now was inherited.

 

Bloom inherited a much different team, farm and system.

 

Astros current budget situation:

AAV (Tax Dollars)

 

$25M/1 player option Verlander

$23.4M x 2 Altuve

$20M x 2 Bregman

$19.2M x 6 Y Alvarez

$17M x 4 McCullers

$15M x 2 Pressley + opt

$8.5M x 1 Neris

 

ARBs left:

4 Dubon, James

3 Tucker, F Valdez, Javier, Urquidy

1 Stanek

 

Pre-ARB

L Garcia, C McCormick, J Pena, H Brown and many more

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

Those high picks did help, but they also had their share of hic-ups in drafting, including losing several picks over the cheating incident and picking Mark Appel & Brady Aiken with two of the 4 straight number one picks they had from 2012-2015. No doubt these first round picks nailed it:

 

2011 Springer 11th

2012 Correa 1st

2015 Bregman 1st

2016 Tucker 5th

 

They also traded for Yordan Alvarez before he even played one game in the minors. IFAs include Altuve, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and Urguidy. Javier was a minor league FA signing in 2015. Hunter Brown a 5th round pick in '19, and Jeremy Pena a 3rd round pick in '18.

 

The current Astros GM, James Click, who became their GM in 2020 got his first MLB job with the Rays thanks to a recommendation from Chaim Bloom. He has made some key moves, but much of what the Astros have now was inherited.

 

Bloom inherited a much different team, farm and system.

 

Astros current budget situation:

AAV (Tax Dollars)

 

$25M/1 player option Verlander

$23.4M x 2 Altuve

$20M x 2 Bregman

$19.2M x 6 Y Alvarez

$17M x 4 McCullers

$15M x 2 Pressley + opt

$8.5M x 1 Neris

 

ARBs left:

4 Dubon, James

3 Tucker, F Valdez, Javier, Urquidy

1 Stanek

 

Pre-ARB

L Garcia, C McCormick, J Pena, H Brown and many more

 

Peña as it has turned out was a pretty good 3rd round pick in 2018 from the U Of Maine.

[moonslav59]

Of course they have had people that make it work, and the jury is still out on Bloom to be able to do that.Three hundred loss seasons in a row in the early teens, and hitting on #1 picks were a big help.

 

Notice how those major farm additions were made from 2011-2016 or 2017. It takes time to see the results of farm building.

 

Yes, the jury is still out on Bloom and his farm system building. Many of the next prospects coming up are DD additions. It will be quite some time before we see the full results of Bloom's influence on the farm. It looks pretty good, on paper, but nothing is a sure bet.

 

Bloom has also made plenty of trades for prospects- weakening the big club to improve the longer term odds of success. We haven't seen any Yordan Alvarezes, yet, but he did acquire a lot of far-away prospects with decent upside potential. Many of his ML ready or near ML ready prospects acquired have not wow'd us, at all, and that is fair game.

 

He did steal Whitlock from the Yankee farm, and guys like Kelly, German and Wink may turn out to be helpful in 2023- maybe even Enmanuel Valdez will, too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Notice how those major farm additions were made from 2011-2016 or 2017. It takes time to see the results of farm building.

 

Yes, the jury is still out on Bloom and his farm system building. Many of the next prospects coming up are DD additions. It will be quite some time before we see the full results of Bloom's influence on the farm. It looks pretty good, on paper, but nothing is a sure bet.

 

Bloom has also made plenty of trades for prospects- weakening the big club to improve the longer term odds of success. We haven't seen any Yordan Alvarezes, yet, but he did acquire a lot of far-away prospects with decent upside potential. Many of his ML ready or near ML ready prospects acquired have not wow'd us, at all, and that is fair game.

 

He did steal Whitlock from the Yankee farm, and guys like Kelly, German and Wink may turn out to be helpful in 2023- maybe even Enmanuel Valdez will, too.

 

I have hope for Valdez just because he's from the Houston system.

 

Have announcers mentioned the Astros are also doing just fine without Brantley, their best hitter the past three years?

 

Or that not only have they been ok in centerfield since Springer left, but that a guy like McCormick allowed them to trade Straw and Siri (a guy who'd look like a star in Boston or NY)...

[Bellhorn04]

Peña as it has turned out was a pretty good 3rd round pick in 2018 from the U Of Maine.

 

Yeah, I was just reading about him. Born in the Dominican, family moved to Providence, RI when he was 9.

 

Too bad the Sox didn't draft him.

[notin]

Yeah, I was just reading about him. Born in the Dominican, family moved to Providence, RI when he was 9.

 

Too bad the Sox didn't draft him.

 

That’s why I can’t get too worked up about missed draft picks.

 

That round the Sox selected “MLB-ready” Durban Feltman, who still isn’t as MLB-ready as he was that day…

[notin]

Of course they have had people that make it work, and the jury is still out on Bloom to be able to do that.Three hundred loss seasons in a row in the early teens, and hitting on #1 picks were a big help.

 

The draft picks are nice, but only Bregman and Tucker remain from that mixed bag streak of high draft picks.

 

What has carried the Astros has been the international free agent signings like Valdez, Javier, Garcia and Urquidy. It’s been mentioned their rotation after Verlander is all homegrown. But really, of the other 5 starters, only McCullers was drafted. And he’s been their most inconsistent one attendance-wise…

[Bellhorn04]

The draft picks are nice, but only Bregman and Tucker remain from that mixed bag streak of high draft picks.

 

What has carried the Astros has been the international free agent signings like Valdez, Javier, Garcia and Urquidy. It’s been mentioned their rotation after Verlander is all homegrown. But really, of the other 5 starters, only McCullers was drafted. And he’s been their most inconsistent one attendance-wise…

 

Personally I kind of lump together draft picks and IFA's. I know they're very different systems, but they are both part of the scouting and selecting of prospect talent.

[moonslav59]

I have hope for Valdez just because he's from the Houston system.

 

Have announcers mentioned the Astros are also doing just fine without Brantley, their best hitter the past three years?

 

Or that not only have they been ok in centerfield since Springer left, but that a guy like McCormick allowed them to trade Straw and Siri (a guy who'd look like a star in Boston or NY)...

 

Wilyer Abreu was considered, by some, to be the better of the two prospects we got for Vaz.

 

Enmanuel Valdez is closer to ML ready.

 

They also had Tucker after Springer left.

 

Notice they don't trade many of their stars, they lose them to free agency. Correa, Springer, Cole, Keuchel, Morton and others.

[moonslav59]

Personally I kind of lump together draft picks and IFA's. I know they're very different systems, but they are both part of the scouting and selecting of prospect talent.

 

Agreed. I heard an interesting point made on the radio down here about how the Astros don't give up too early on their young Latin American pitcher prospects like some teams seem to do.

[harmony]

Agreed. I heard an interesting point made on the radio down here about how the Astros don't give up too early on their young Latin American pitcher prospects like some teams seem to do.

Like the Seattle Mariners, who traded Pablo Lopez and three others to Miami for David Phelps, and Freddy Peralta and two others to Milwaukee for Adam Lind.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lopezpa01.shtml#all_transactions_other

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peralfr01.shtml#all_transactions_other

[notin]

Wilyer Abreu was considered, by some, to be the better of the two prospects we got for Vaz.

 

Enmanuel Valdez is closer to ML ready.

 

They also had Tucker after Springer left.

 

Notice they don't trade many of their stars, they lose them to free agency. Correa, Springer, Cole, Keuchel, Morton and others.

 

They traded Lance Berkman!!!

[notin]

Last year, Oakland gave MLB the Arbitration Fire Sale. They dealt Chapman, Olson, Bassitt, Manaea and (eventually) Montas.

 

This year, I suspect will see something similar, although maybe not quite at that scale, from Milwaukee, who has the following players eligible for arbitration: Brandon Woodruff, Corban Burnes, Hunter Renfroe, Willy Adames, Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, and Luis Urias. And probably a couple more.

 

This might be where the Sox grab some help…