A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

None of you have posted an acquisition that in my view says "we're much better in 2023".

 

Yeah I get it that we will get worse maybe by not resigning Xander. But signing him does not make us "much better". He had a pretty good year and his signing gets us back to the starting gate.

 

I will hold Bloom to what he said.

 

And his mismanagement of luxury tax at the trade deadline this year will negative impact us much greater the $900K penalty we paid.

 

Many of you could have done better and I'm serious.

 

C - Vaz: 2/8

1B/DH - Mancini: 3/30

SS - Bogey: 6/150

OF - Myers: 2/20

OF - Beni: 4/50

SP - Bassitt: 3/60

SP - Kluber: 2/36

RP - Jansen: 1/16

RP - Montero: 1/12

RP - Fulmer: 1/10

 

Bloom signs all those guys within a span of 10 minutes and then takes a long nap.

[Nick]

Thanks for that, MVP.

[moonslav59]

None of you have posted an acquisition that in my view says "we're much better in 2023".

 

Yeah I get it that we will get worse maybe by not resigning Xander. But signing him does not make us "much better". He had a pretty good year and his signing gets us back to the starting gate.

 

I will hold Bloom to what he said.

 

And his mismanagement of luxury tax at the trade deadline this year will negatively impact us much greater the $900K penalty we paid.

 

Many of you could have done better and I'm serious.

 

I think signing Swanson, Nimmo, Wacha, Fulmer & Montero while trading for Lopez makes us "much better."

 

We might even come close to re-setting.

[harmony]

Some trade candidates whose availability BTV classifies as "medium" in order of "value" (cost for us):

 

Bryan Reynolds -- the most costly, good bat, negative dWAR;

Taylor Ward -- classic sell-high guy, coming off career O year for perennial also-ran, another negative dWAR;

Tyler O'Neil -- coming off a crappy year after 34 dingers and a .900+ in '21, bats RIGHT, plays LF, valued below Nootbar (St. Louis is going to trade some outfielder); Adolis Garcia -- all-or-nothing Ranger, "high" availability;

Jack Suwinski -- another Pirate, all-or-nothing but age 23 and his 19 HRs were more than any Sox except Devers, BL;

Mike Yaz -- 31 years old already... or maybe we'd be better off instead with

Trent Grisham, who is 25, but also all-or-nothing... though he does have 20 longballs, including 3 in the playoffs so far...

 

Teoscar Hernandez is also on the list with a low value for some reason -- Sox would take a recent two-time Silver Slugger in a second.

 

A lot of big whiffers on this list, but none we'd have to give up top prospects for, except Reynolds.

 

Any interest in one year of Seattle outfielder Jesse Winker at $8.25 million?

 

Winker may have fallen out of favor in Seattle:

 

https://twitter.com/MarinersSUR/status/1582397824209416192

 

Or not.

[notin]

C - Vaz: 2/8

1B/DH - Mancini: 3/30

SS - Bogey: 6/150

OF - Myers: 2/20

OF - Beni: 4/50

SP - Bassitt: 3/60

SP - Kluber: 2/36

RP - Jansen: 1/16

RP - Montero: 1/12

RP - Fulmer: 1/10

 

Bloom signs all those guys within a span of 10 minutes and then takes a long nap.

 

 

If that happens, someone will complain that he took a nap…

[Bellhorn04]

If that happens, someone will complain that he took a nap…

 

I'm afraid to do the math on the tax payroll after those moves...

[notin]

Any interest in one year of Seattle outfielder Jesse Winker at $8.25 million?

 

Winker may have fallen out of favor in Seattle:

 

https://twitter.com/MarinersSUR/status/1582397824209416192

 

Or not.

 

Absolutely. Winker is an OBP machine.

 

His BTV value of $2.1 mill is relatively small and opens the door for numerous possibilities.

 

What does Seattle need, besides postseason wins or a pitcher who can retire Yordan Alvarez?

 

Winker (2.1) and Flexen (0.3) for ?

[harmony]

Absolutely. Winker is an OBP machine.

 

His BTV value of $2.1 mill is relatively small and opens the door for numerous possibilities.

 

What does Seattle need, besides postseason wins or a pitcher who can retire Yordan Alvarez?

 

Winker (2.1) and Flexen (0.3) for ?

FWIW the Mariners were undefeated against the AL East in the postseason and cumulatively outscored postseason opponents over five games.

 

Yordan Alvarez was a thorn despite being retired in 11 of 17 plate appearances against Seattle in the American League Divisional Series.

 

In terms of a Jesse Winker trade, the Red Sox don't have much to offer. Trevor Story and $40 million?

[Nick]

Little surprised Guardians did not have a better starter for G5.

[notin]

FWIW the Mariners were undefeated against the AL East in the postseason and cumulatively outscored postseason opponents over five games.

 

Yordan Alvarez was a thorn despite being retired in 11 of 17 plate appearances against Seattle in the American League Divisional Series.

 

In terms of a Jesse Winker trade, the Red Sox don't have much to offer. Trevor Story and $40 million?

 

 

Not sure why you ask us and then say the Sox have nothing to interest Seattle, which you have now done twice…

[harmony]

Not sure why you ask us and then say the Sox have nothing to interest Seattle, which you have now done twice…

In response to a post about outfield trade candidates, Jesse Winker's name was offered.

 

Thank you asking about about "Winker (2.1) and Flexen (0.3)."

[harmony]

Bellinger's swing is tailor made to die an even quicker death in Fenway.

From Tuesday report at MLB Trade Rumors:

Among 172 hitters with 800+ plate appearances over the past two seasons, Bellinger ranked dead last with a .256 on-base percentage. His .355 slugging mark is in the bottom ten. Bellinger’s 7.7% walk rate and 27.1% strikeout percentage are each worse than average, and his hard contact rate is down notably from its 2019 peak.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/dodgers-friedman-gomes-discuss-roberts-kershaw-bellinger-turner.html

[mvp 78]

I'm afraid to do the math on the tax payroll after those moves...

 

Reset in 2024? IDK. Nick just asked for moves to move the meter.

[mvp 78]

Not sure why you ask us and then say the Sox have nothing to interest Seattle, which you have now done twice…

 

SEA makes it to the playoffs once and he has delusions of grandeur.

[Bellhorn04]

Reset in 2024? IDK. Nick just asked for moves to move the meter.

 

Understood.

[moonslav59]

From Tuesday report at MLB Trade Rumors:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/dodgers-friedman-gomes-discuss-roberts-kershaw-bellinger-turner.html

 

What a complete dive off a cliff.

 

Age 21-23 (1841 PAs) 162 gm avg:

.278 40 104 (77 XBHs w 14 SBs) .369 OBP/.559 SLG/.928 OPS

 

Age 24-26 (1143 PAs)

.203 23 74 (31 XBHs w 8 SBs) .272/.376/.648

[mvp 78]

Understood.

 

I'll bold the moves I think the Sox should actually do:

 

C - Vaz: 2/8

1B/DH - Mancini: 3/30

SS - Bogey: 6/150

OF - Myers: 2/20

OF - Beni: 4/50

SP - Bassitt: 3/60

SP - Kluber: 2/36

RP - Jansen: 1/16

RP - Montero: 1/12

RP - Fulmer: 1/10

[moonslav59]

I'll bold the moves I think the Sox should actually do:

 

C - Vaz: 2/8

1B/DH - Mancini: 3/30

SS - Bogey: 6/150

OF - Myers: 2/20

OF - Beni: 4/50

SP - Bassitt: 3/60

SP - Kluber: 2/36

RP - Jansen: 1/16

RP - Montero: 1/12

RP - Fulmer: 1/10

 

Why is Kike worth $10M/1 and Myers $20M/2?

 

The Kluber idea scares the hell out of me.

[jacksonianmarch]

Those additions guarantee you’re a bottom dweller in the division. You’re better off buying a premium player, extending Devers and seeing if you can’t build some core guys from the top end talent in the farm

[mvp 78]

Why is Kike worth $10M/1 and Myers $20M/2?

 

The Kluber idea scares the hell out of me.

 

Kluber scares you, but you'd want Eovaldi or Wacha back?

[mvp 78]

Those additions guarantee you’re a bottom dweller in the division. You’re better off buying a premium player, extending Devers and seeing if you can’t build some core guys from the top end talent in the farm

 

And you were famously high on the 2013 Red Sox chances. And you even put your 7 year "I've been right everytime" call on the 2021 Sox to not be a contending team.

[notin]

I'll bold the moves I think the Sox should actually do:

 

C - Vaz: 2/8

1B/DH - Mancini: 3/30

SS - Bogey: 6/150

OF - Myers: 2/20

OF - Beni: 4/50

SP - Bassitt: 3/60

SP - Kluber: 2/36

RP - Jansen: 1/16

RP - Montero: 1/12

RP - Fulmer: 1/10

 

Fulmer, Montero, Bogaerts, Wacha, Bassitt.

 

I’m ok with Benintendi and Mancini. No on Myers. (Where is Myers playing in your proposal?)

 

I do wonder if - against my wishes - the Sox don’t just use Hosmer and Dalbec in a DH platoon…

[notin]

And you were famously high on the 2013 Red Sox chances. And you even put your 7 year "I've been right everytime" call on the 2021 Sox to not be a contending team.

 

He also said the 2018 Sox would not compete in the AL East.

 

(I suppose one could argue that the 2018 Sox really did not find the ALE all that competitive.)

[mvp 78]

Fulmer, Montero, Bogaerts, Wacha, Bassitt.

 

I’m ok with Benintendi and Mancini. No on Myers. (Where is Myers playing in your proposal?)

 

I do wonder if - against my wishes - the Sox don’t just use Hosmer and Dalbec in a DH platoon…

 

Myers is a platoon guy. Backs up at RF/1B/DH. Super-SUB guy like Kiké!

[mvp 78]

He also said the 2018 Sox would not compete in the AL East.

 

(I suppose one could argue that the 2018 Sox really did not find the ALE all that competitive.)

 

He's been lucky that the Sox have been such a rollercoaster franchise. At least it's helped him to be right once in a while.

[mvp 78]

Also, I think a rotation of Sale, Kluber, Bassitt, Bello, Pivetta has the chance to be very, very good.

[moonslav59]

Kluber scares you, but you'd want Eovaldi or Wacha back?

 

I never said I wanted Nate back.

 

I said I'd give Wacha a QO. One year. It's a close call. Maybe he'd take $26M/2, instead. Yes, he scares me, but it's one year not 2 x a QO cost you suggested for Kluber.

 

I think this looks safer:

 

IP since 2019:

 

281 Kluber

 

412 Wacha

Edited October 19, 2022 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

I never said I wanted Nate back.

 

I said I'd give Wacha a QO. One year. Yes, he scares me, but it's one year not 2 x a QO cost you suggested for Kluber.

 

I think this looks safer:

 

IP since 2019:

 

281 Kluber

 

412 Wacha

 

fWAR since 2019

Kluber 5

Wacha 2.3

[mvp 78]

And that was with you specifically adding the two years Kluber was injured. Add the 5 years prior where he exceeded 200 innings each year. Wacha has never done that.

 

Kluber threw 164 innings this year. Wacha hasn't thrown that many since 2017!

[moonslav59]

And that was with you specifically adding the two years Kluber was injured. Add the 5 years prior where he exceeded 200 innings each year. Wacha has never done that.

 

Kluber threw 164 innings this year. Wacha hasn't thrown that many since 2017!

 

They would both be a gamble, but I'd go with one year of Wacha over 2 yrs of Kluber.

 

I'd really prefer we trade for a starter with a record of durability.

Edited October 19, 2022 by moonslav59