A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[moonslav59]

"An option going forward" as in 2023 and beyond. I think he's with the Sox through the end of this season no matter what. Better to have him try to hit out of funks like this. It's the only way he'll learn.

 

… and one way we can get a better feel on his value and a little better sense on what we can count on him for in 2023 and beyond.

 

Whether he does good or badly after the ASB won’t tell us everything, but we should get a better read on him by playing him FT or near FT going forward.

[Kimmi]

Even with a 14-game win streak (and winning 22 of 25) the Mariners' season winning percentage (.548) falls short of last year's full-season winning percentage (.556). But this year's team has a +36 run differential while last year's team ended at -51.

 

But the modest second-half strength of schedule is encouraging:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

After 93 games the Mariners are 51-42 with a 67.7 percent chance of advancing to the postseason, according to FanGraphs:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2022-07-18&dateDelta=

 

After 93 games of the 2018 season the Mariners were 58-35 with a an 80.6 percent chance of advancing to the postseason, according to FanGraphs:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-07-11&dateDelta=

 

Baseball can be cruel as the Mariners came up short in 2018 ... perhaps this is the year for the Mariners.

 

Or not.

 

I remember last year's Mariners having a run differential that didn't support their W-L record. This year, their record aligns much better with run differential.

 

Baseball can indeed be cruel. It is such an unpredictable sport. The Mariners are in a good spot. Enjoy the ride!

[Kimmi]

I just don't think the scrutiny is why he is struggling. I think it's how he is being pitched to.

 

It's possible. I won't say that that isn't the reason why he's struggling.

[Kimmi]

Unless the season is over anyway and they’re giving him one last chance…

 

Bite your tongue!

[moonslav59]

It's possible. I won't say that that isn't the reason why he's struggling.

 

Either way, he brought it on himself.

[Kimmi]

Either way, he brought it on himself.

 

It was his decision not to get vaccinated. That decision did not deserve the scrutiny and the criticism that it received.

[mvp 78]

It was his decision not to get vaccinated. That decision did not deserve the scrutiny and the criticism that it received.

 

I mean, he chose to not be available for away games at a rival team. Seems like the criticism is warranted IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

I mean, he chose to not be available for away games at a rival team. Seems like the criticism is warranted IMO.

 

All of us have our own feelings about it.

[moonslav59]

K

It was his decision not to get vaccinated. That decision did not deserve the scrutiny and the criticism that it received.

 

I disagree. He knew he’d be criticised by many. I actually expected it would be worse than it was.

[Bellhorn04]

K

 

I disagree. He knew he’d be criticised by many. I actually expected it would be worse than it was.

 

Houck seemed to take the brunt of it, probably because Duran had just been called up recently.

 

Anyway, what Kimmi was talking about was "deserved", not "expected".

[moonslav59]

Houck seemed to take the brunt of it, probably because Duran had just been called up recently.

 

Anyway, what Kimmi was talking about was "deserved", not "expected".

 

Yes, an important distinction. I hesitate to say he deserved it, but I do feel like he let the team and fans down by his choice and deserved questioning and having to hear what fans felt about his choice.

They cheer when he does well and makes good choices. He knew what was going to happen and made his choice anyway.

I feel zero sympathy for what he faced. None at all.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, an important distinction. I hesitate to say he deserved it, but I do feel like he let the team and fans down by his choice and deserved questioning and having to hear what fans felt about his choice.

They cheer when he does well and makes good choices. He knew what was going to happen and made his choice anyway.

I feel zero sympathy for what he faced. None at all.

 

I think we've already beaten this topic to death and nothing anyone says is going to make anyone else change their minds.

[mvp 78]

I think we've already beaten this topic to death and nothing anyone says is going to make anyone else change their minds.

 

I would like to DFA COVID.

[jad]

All of us have our own feelings about it.

 

Yes, but our 'feelings' should not supplant medical knowledge and science. There are lots of times I just don't feel like stopping at STOP signs. But I do anyway.

[mvp 78]

Yes, but our 'feelings' should not supplant medical knowledge and science. There are lots of times I just don't feel like stopping at STOP signs. But I do anyway.

 

You would not enjoy driving in FL then.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, but our 'feelings' should not supplant medical knowledge and science.

 

Unvaxed players can travel all over the US but not into Canada. Does Canada have different knowledge and science?

[moonslav59]

Unvaxed players can travel all over the US but not into Canada. Does Canada have different knowledge and science?

 

Same science: different government choices.

[notin]

Unvaxed players can travel all over the US but not into Canada. Does Canada have different knowledge and science?

 

Yes. You only trust metric vaccinations…

[Bellhorn04]

Yes. You only trust metric vaccinations…

 

Our vaccinations are only worth about 75% of US vaccinations.

[notin]

Our vaccinations are only worth about 75% of US vaccinations.

 

But only because of a national refusal to vaccinate Quebec.

 

I don’t blame them either. Quebec is the Texas of Canada…

[JDavis76]

Yes, but our 'feelings' should not supplant medical knowledge and science. There are lots of times I just don't feel like stopping at STOP signs. But I do anyway.

 

And the medical knowledge and science tells us that being vaxxed does not stop you from transmitting it, so what's the point?

[notin]

And the medical knowledge and science tells us that being vaxxed does not stop you from transmitting it, so what's the point?

 

Don't start again.

 

If you wantto make stupid vaccnine jokes, I don't care.

 

If you wan to talk about theeffect of vaccinations on the AL East, permissible IMO, but step carefully.

 

If you want to use the forum to spread your beliefs regarding medical and political issues, please find another forum. There are millions of them on the internet. Start by googling...

[oldtimer]

And the medical knowledge and science tells us that being vaxxed does not stop you from transmitting it, so what's the point?

 

If you want to help the team, you do what is necessary. That is the point.

[illinoisredsox]

Before we get all high and mighty re. Canada’s rules, it should be noted that the same rules apply to non-US citizens seeking to enter the United States, i.e., proof of vaccination.

[harmony]

Before we get all high and mighty re. Canada’s rules, it should be noted that the same rules apply to non-US citizens seeking to enter the United States, i.e., proof of vaccination.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/proof-of-vaccination.html#:~:text=Do%20I%20still%20need%20proof,proof%20of%20COVID%2D19%20vaccination.

[jad]

And the medical knowledge and science tells us that being vaxxed does not stop you from transmitting it, so what's the point?

 

By the same logic, murder laws do not prevent murder. THEREFORE, get rid of the law.

[mvp 78]

https://twitter.com/fangraphs/status/1550465847650656259

 

In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing subpar production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes.

 

Red Sox

After a tantalizing 23-game debut in 2020, Bobby Dalbec was subpar last year, hitting the ball very hard but striking out 34.4% of the time (second among all players with at least 400 PA) and finishing with a 107 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR. Even that version of Dalbec would be an improvement upon the current one, however. The 27-year-old is hitting .205/.286/.344 (76 wRC+) with a 31.3% strikeout rate and a barrel rate that’s dropped by more than half relative to last year (from 20.2% to 9.5%). Lately, he’s been serving as the short half of a platoon with Franchy Cordero, who himself has been pretty bad (.225/.299/.372, 87 wRC+) while striking out 32.4% of the time.

 

The Red Sox do have a first baseman of the future in 6-foot-5 lefty Tristan Casas, who topped the team’s prospect list and was 16th on our Top 100 heading into the season (he’s currently ranked 15th overall). Armed with a more mature approach at the plate and better contact skills than Dalbec, he wasn’t exactly lighting up the International League (.248/.359/.457) before suffering a right ankle sprain on May 17. After making a four-game rehab stint in the Florida Complex League last week, he’s likely to rejoin Triple-A Worcester this weekend. It’s asking too much for him to step into the big club’s job so soon, and so the team, which has gone just 5-12 in July after a 20-6 June, will need additional help. The Nationals’ Josh Bell and the Marlins’ Jesús Aguilar are both pending free agents who could fit, as could the Marlins’ Garrett Cooper, who has an additional year of club control and could also help in right field, where the team is below replacement level as well.

 

Dalbec was the leading photo of the story.

[moonslav59]

Shoulda traded Dalbec when is stock was higher.

[mvp 78]

Shoulda traded Dalbec when is stock was higher.

 

At the end of 2020.

[moonslav59]

At the end of 2020.

 

Even after 2021, it was much higher than now.

 

I understand they needed someone to carry them to Casas, so I don’t really blame Bloom for the 2022 1B plan.