A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

David Ortiz on a pre-Hall Induction Zoom: “We gotta keep Devers.”

 

“100 percent, when I see Devers, it’s like I never left (the game). … He looks invincible out there. … Devers might be one of the top-three pure hitters in the game right now. I hope the Red Sox make sense of the decision they need to make with him…We’ve got to keep him. He’s the face of the organization. I know what I’m going to get from those guys. They are the best players that can represent the Red Sox. We need to lock them in.”

[Bellhorn04]

“100 percent, when I see Devers, it’s like I never left (the game). … He looks invincible out there. … Devers might be one of the top-three pure hitters in the game right now. I hope the Red Sox make sense of the decision they need to make with him…We’ve got to keep him. He’s the face of the organization. I know what I’m going to get from those guys. They are the best players that can represent the Red Sox. We need to lock them in.”

 

He's including Bogey in "them", I take it?

[harmony]

The new tiebreaker rules can be confusing but if the season ended at this moment the Red Sox would likely fall short of the postseason.

 

The Red Sox, Blue Jays and Mariners are currently tied for the second and third Wild Card slots. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head competition which gives the Red Sox the edge over the Mariners, the Mariners the edge over the Blue Jays and the Blue Jays the edge over the Red Sox.

 

The second tiebreaker is intradivision record in which the Red Sox stand at 11-23, the Blue Jays at 16-18 and the Mariners at 20-16. Presumably the Mariners would secure the second Wild Card slot and the Blue Jays the third slot.

 

The Mariners might receive a benefit in playing in a weaker division. Or not.

 

In 20-game stretch after the All Star Break the Mariners play seven games against the Houston Astros and six games against the New York Yankees.

 

It could be an interesting season.

[mvp 78]

He's including Bogey in "them", I take it?

 

Yes, in the longer version that I listened to he went on to talk about how they were "raised in Boston" and know what it takes to play in Boston unlike other guys that come from outside of Boston. He wants both Bogey and Devers, but believes Devers is a generational talent.

[harmony]

The new tiebreaker rules can be confusing but if the season ended at this moment the Red Sox would likely fall short of the postseason.

 

The Red Sox, Blue Jays and Mariners are currently tied for the second and third Wild Card slots. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head competition which gives the Red Sox the edge over the Mariners, the Mariners the edge over the Blue Jays and the Blue Jays the edge over the Red Sox.

 

The second tiebreaker is intradivision record in which the Red Sox stand at 11-23, the Blue Jays at 16-18 and the Mariners at 20-16. Presumably the Mariners would secure the second Wild Card slot and the Blue Jays the third slot.

 

The Mariners might receive a benefit in playing in a weaker division. Or not.

 

In 20-game stretch after the All Star Break the Mariners play seven games against the Houston Astros and six games against the New York Yankees.

 

It could be an interesting season.

 

What if the head-to-head tiebreaker in a three-way tie looks at the cumulative record of one team against the other two teams?

 

The Red Sox are 9-8 against the Blue Jays and Mariners, the Blue Jays 9-8 against the Red Sox and Mariners, and the Mariners 6-8 against the Red Sox and Blue Jays.

 

Under that scenario, the Blue Jays and Red Sox would secure postseason slots and the Mariners would be left out in the cold again.

[notin]

What if the head-to-head tiebreaker in a three-way tie looks at the cumulative record of one team against the other two teams?

 

The Red Sox are 9-8 against the Blue Jays and Mariners, the Blue Jays 9-8 against the Red Sox and Mariners, and the Mariners 6-8 against the Red Sox and Blue Jays.

 

Under that scenario, the Blue Jays and Red Sox would secure postseason slots and the Mariners would be left out in the cold again.

 

MLB also has an obscure rule that all postseason tiebreakers eliminate the Mariners…

[mvp 78]

MLB also has an obscure rule that all postseason tiebreakers eliminate the Mariners…

 

It's just going to be sad when the Mariner's have the playoffs within their grasp, but blow it over the course of a 10 game homestand at the end of the year.

[harmony]

It's just going to be sad when the Mariner's have the playoffs within their grasp, but blow it over the course of a 10 game homestand at the end of the year.

Especially when that 10-game homestand is against the struggling Rangers, Athletics and Tigers.

[Kimmi]

Losing Devers scares the hell out of me!

 

He's a unique talent.

There is no "book on him."

He's just entering peak prime, now.

He's a Yankee killer. (I know that's your soft spot.)

 

Instead of $290M/10, just go $300M/11.

 

I get it Moon. I really do. The thought of losing Devers does not sit well with me.

 

As I said, if the Sox give Devers that type of deal, I would be thrilled to keep him. I won't be happy with the contract though. If it were my decision between keeping him for that kind of money or letting him walk, I'd reluctantly have to let him walk.

[Kimmi]

5 straight losses to the Rays, outscored 32-13. Yikes.

 

These last 3 games prove that there's no such thing as momentum in MLB. The Sox came into this series off two comeback wins over the Yankees. The Rays came in off getting swept by the Reds.

 

!!!

 

Baseball is such an unpredictable game. The hapless Reds not only swept the Rays, but they also beat the Yankees 2 out of 3.

 

And look at what the Mariners are doing. They are really starting to annoy me.

[Kimmi]

Jarren Duran last 10 games:

.143 AVG

411 OPS

13 wRC+

36.8 K%

 

Previous 12 games:

.354 AVG

987 OPS

176 wRC+

13.5 K%

 

Seems like the book is getting around on him again, maybe?

 

Small samples, but this also aligns mostly with the games played before Toronto and the games played after. I wonder if the scrutiny he was under had any effect.

 

That said, before Toronto, Duran's BABIP was .415. After Toronto, it's .257. It could be just a matter of good breaks versus bad.

[Kimmi]

The new tiebreaker rules can be confusing but if the season ended at this moment the Red Sox would likely fall short of the postseason.

 

The Red Sox, Blue Jays and Mariners are currently tied for the second and third Wild Card slots. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head competition which gives the Red Sox the edge over the Mariners, the Mariners the edge over the Blue Jays and the Blue Jays the edge over the Red Sox.

 

The second tiebreaker is intradivision record in which the Red Sox stand at 11-23, the Blue Jays at 16-18 and the Mariners at 20-16. Presumably the Mariners would secure the second Wild Card slot and the Blue Jays the third slot.

 

The Mariners might receive a benefit in playing in a weaker division. Or not.

 

In 20-game stretch after the All Star Break the Mariners play seven games against the Houston Astros and six games against the New York Yankees.

 

It could be an interesting season.

 

Things will be interesting and exciting down the stretch. There are so many teams that conceivably could still get in. I've read that MLB is doing away with Game 163 to break any ties. I guess with the 3rd wildcard, that would be too much.

[Kimmi]

It's just going to be sad when the Mariner's have the playoffs within their grasp, but blow it over the course of a 10 game homestand at the end of the year.

 

Ouch. I tend to agree though. LOL

[Bellhorn04]

This might be the year the Mariners fool us all. Every dog has his day.

[Nick]

Game 1....A team bullpen is now Schreiber, Whitlock and Houck. I think Brasier came in only because we didn't have anyone else and he's pitched well lately.

 

Game 2....B team bullpen is now Darwinzon, Ort, Sawamura, Davis and Dieckman.

 

I would love for all the starters get healthy and replace some of the 'B' bullpen pitchers.

 

Barnes is unofficially off the team. We may never see him pitch. Not this year.

[Kimmi]

This might be the year the Mariners fool us all. Every dog has his day.

 

It's possible. They have a tough stretch coming out of the break, but then they have a lot of games remaining against the bottom feeders.

[Kimmi]

Game 1....A team bullpen is now Schreiber, Whitlock and Houck. I think Brasier came in only because we didn't have anyone else and he's pitched well lately.

 

Game 2....B team bullpen is now Darwinzon, Ort, Sawamura, Davis and Dieckman.

 

I would love for all the starters get healthy and replace some of the 'B' bullpen pitchers.

 

Barnes is unofficially off the team. We may never see him pitch. Not this year.

 

I don't think Bloom will be as willing to part with Barnes as most people here are. It's not a huge contract, but with another year remaining, I think Bloom will give Barnes every opportunity to right himself.

[mvp 78]

Small samples, but this also aligns mostly with the games played before Toronto and the games played after. I wonder if the scrutiny he was under had any effect.

 

That said, before Toronto, Duran's BABIP was .415. After Toronto, it's .257. It could be just a matter of good breaks versus bad.

 

I'm not so sure about the scrutiny. Cora has stated that he'll be available for the next trip to TOR.

[moonslav59]

I'm not so sure about the scrutiny. Cora has stated that he'll be available for the next trip to TOR.

 

Great! He’s unavailable when hot and now gets vaxxed when cold. Thanks!

 

Maybe he’s worried about job security, more, now.

[harmony]

It's possible. They have a tough stretch coming out of the break, but then they have a lot of games remaining against the bottom feeders.

This weekend the Mariners host a three-game series against the Houston Astros, who host a doubleheader against the Yankees on Thursday before flying to Seattle to start the weekend series on Friday. The Mariners have split a dozen games against the Astros this season.

 

But indeed in the first 20 games after the All Star Break the Mariners play the Astros seven times and the Yankees six times.

Edited July 18, 2022 by harmony

[dgalehouse]

This weekend the Mariners host a three-game series against the Houston Astros, who fly to New York for a doubleheader against the Yankees on Thursday before flying to Seattle to start the weekend series on Friday. The Mariners have split a dozen games against the Astros this season.

 

But indeed in the first 20 games after the All Star Break the Mariners play the Astros seven times and the Yankees six times.

 

The doubleheader with the Yanks is in Houston.

[harmony]

The doubleheader with the Yanks is in Houston.

Thank you for the correction.

[Kimmi]

I'm not so sure about the scrutiny. Cora has stated that he'll be available for the next trip to TOR.

 

Duran took a lot of heat for not getting vaccinated for the last trip.

[Kimmi]

This weekend the Mariners host a three-game series against the Houston Astros, who host a doubleheader against the Yankees on Thursday before flying to Seattle to start the weekend series on Friday. The Mariners have split a dozen games against the Astros this season.

 

But indeed in the first 20 games after the All Star Break the Mariners play the Astros seven times and the Yankees six times.

 

The Mariners are looking a lot better than the Sox at the moment. Honestly, I wouldn't mind seeing the Mariners get in the playoffs, just not at the expense of the Red Sox.

[harmony]

The Mariners are looking a lot better than the Sox at the moment. Honestly, I wouldn't mind seeing the Mariners get in the playoffs, just not at the expense of the Red Sox.

Even with a 14-game win streak (and winning 22 of 25) the Mariners' season winning percentage (.548) falls short of last year's full-season winning percentage (.556). But this year's team has a +36 run differential while last year's team ended at -51.

 

But the modest second-half strength of schedule is encouraging:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

After 93 games the Mariners are 51-42 with a 67.7 percent chance of advancing to the postseason, according to FanGraphs:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2022-07-18&dateDelta=

 

After 93 games of the 2018 season the Mariners were 58-35 with a an 80.6 percent chance of advancing to the postseason, according to FanGraphs:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-07-11&dateDelta=

 

Baseball can be cruel as the Mariners came up short in 2018 ... perhaps this is the year for the Mariners.

 

Or not.

[mvp 78]

Duran took a lot of heat for not getting vaccinated for the last trip.

 

I just don't think the scrutiny is why he is struggling. I think it's how he is being pitched to.

[illinoisredsox]

Great! He’s unavailable when hot and now gets vaxxed when cold. Thanks!

 

Maybe he’s worried about job security, more, now.

 

Next trip north of the border is in September.

[mvp 78]

Next trip north of the border is in September.

 

If he hasn't turned it around by then, he's not an option going forward anyway.

[notin]

If he hasn't turned it around by then, he's not an option going forward anyway.

 

Unless the season is over anyway and they’re giving him one last chance…

[mvp 78]

Unless the season is over anyway and they’re giving him one last chance…

 

"An option going forward" as in 2023 and beyond. I think he's with the Sox through the end of this season no matter what. Better to have him try to hit out of funks like this. It's the only way he'll learn.