Fire Bloom .

[mvp 78]

Then why would you sign someone for $10M if he wasn’t the best option out there? I guess I’m just stuck on that point.

 

Because they believe he's worth 10M and want to keep him around?

[mvp 78]

Still the same point that to me there just has to be someone out there who is better than Kike that you could get for $10M, or less. If not then MLB is in bad shape.

 

Who?

[Bellhorn04]

Don't look too far.

 

FWIW last offseason Tommy Pham was a 33-year-old outfielder who had posted 15.9 fWAR in 732 career games when Pham signed a one-year, $7.5 million contract with the Cincinnati Reds.

 

Kiki Hernandez is a 31-year-old utility player who has posted 12.3 fWAR in 903 career games.

 

This season Hernandez has posted 0.4 fWAR in 79 games while Pham has posted 1.0 fWAR in 132 games.

 

FWIW

 

The two-year age difference accounts for some of it. It's a valid comp, though.

[Old Red]

One year, $10 million contracts do not get you a star player these days.

 

Remember that after 2018 Dombrowski signed Steve Pearce to a one year, $6.25 million contract. Pearce was a non-full time player, decent hitter with a career OPS of .772 who was slightly minus on defense. That's sort of a starting point for what you get. I'd say Kike was worth $3.75 million more than that, when you throw in a little adjustment for inflation. No matter what, it's not a blatant overpay.

I’m not trying to change your mind, but I think you’re trying to change mine. We disagree, and that is not going to change. I get all the points made about Kike, but I just don’t see it as you, and others do.

[mvp 78]

We’ve gone over this 100 times too. To me Kike is a good utility guy, who is good at different positions, but plays full time for the Red Sox, because they have NO ONE better. If Duran had worked out in CF do you think Kike would have been resigned for $10M? Once again I’m not saying Kike is bad, but I certainly don’t rate him as highly as you. We disagree, and there is nothing wrong with that.

 

Ok, but Duran couldn't play CF and couldn't hit either. So, that means they had to find someone to play CF for at least 2023.

 

CF FA's:

Aaron Judge (31 years old, 14.8 WAR)

Brandon Nimmo (30, 7.4) PROBABLY A BETTER OPTION FOR RF? WILL SIGN FOR MORE THAN 10M.

Kevin Kiermaier (33, 3.7) -- Club option

Odubel Herrera (31, 1.9)

Lorenzo Cain (37, 1.0)

Kevin Pillar (34, 0.8)

Jake Marisnick (31, 0.8)

Delino DeShields (29, 0.2)

Travis Jankowski (32, 0.2)

Billy Hamilton (32, 0.1)

Shogo Akiyama (34, -0.6)

Jackie Bradley Jr. (33, -1.9) -- Mutual option (LOL)

 

So of the above, the only options are Nimmo, Judge and Kiermaier. The Rays will probably pick up Kiermaier's option. Nimmo and Judge are more expensive than Kiké, but I'd put either in RF. Kiké's contract doesn't prevent the Sox from signing either of the two. The other players listed above are garbage.

[mvp 78]

The two-year age difference accounts for some of it. It's a valid comp, though.

 

Since 2019, most of Pham's starts have been in LF though. I think Kiké's defensive versatility and ability in CF is why he gets a pay bump. Pham only playing LF is a bit of a liability.

[harmony]

One comp for Kiki Hernandez might be Seattle's Adam Frazier, a pending free agent who is four months younger than Hernandez.

 

Frazier is a second baseman who this season has made 35 appearances in the outfield and two at shortstop.

 

A 2021 All Star, Frazier has posted 11.6 fWAR (and 99 wRC+) in 809 career games, including 3.6 fWAR (and 113 wRC+) in 155 games last year.

 

Hernandez has posted 12.3 fWAR (and 99 wRC+) in 903 career games, including 4.1 fWAR (and 109 wRC+) in 134 games last year.

 

This season Frazier has posted 1.2 fWAR (and 81 wRC+) in 144 games while Hernandez has posted 0.4 fWAR (and 81 wRC+) in 79 games.

 

What would be an appropriate free agent contract for Frazier, who is earning $8 million in his final arbitration season?

[Bellhorn04]

One comp for Kiki Hernandez might be Seattle's Adam Frazier, a pending free agent who is four months younger than Hernandez.

 

Frazier is a second baseman who this season has made 35 appearances in the outfield and two at shortstop.

 

A 2021 All Star, Frazier has posted 11.6 fWAR (and 99 wRC+) in 809 career games, including 3.6 fWAR (and 113 wRC+) in 155 games last year.

 

Hernandez has posted 12.3 fWAR (and 99 wRC+) in 903 career games, including 4.1 fWAR (and 109 wRC+) in 134 games last year.

 

This season Frazier has posted 1.2 fWAR (and 81 wRC+) in 144 games while Hernandez has posted 0.4 fWAR (and 81 wRC+) in 79 games.

 

What would be an appropriate free agent contract for Frazier, who is earning $8 million in his final arbitration season?

 

$10 mill.

[moonslav59]

You are the stat guy, and I’m sure if you really wanted to find one, or some you could, but seeing it’s Kike you wouldn’t even try, and that’s all right to.

 

One can always find some guy who signed at a low cost and beat expectations, but did anyone clamour for us to sign one?

 

I did here people saying we should have signed Suzuki to way more than Kike signed for.

 

I remember Pham's name being thrown around. he signed for less than $10M and has better 2022 numbers than Kike, so is that who you have in mind?

 

I'm asking in foresight- not hindsight.

 

Give me a name of who you'd want for next year at $10M or less, and lets see how it works out.

 

If there are so many, why not name one?

 

I don't think there are any, because I think Kike is being underpaid, so I don't understand why you want me to name someone I think doesn't exist.

[moonslav59]

So why are you counting a non legit contract offer now?

 

It was legit, because it was made. It was low-ball offer, just like Kike's was, IMO. That's why I mentioned it.

 

Why are you moving the goalposts from there being no offer to the quality of the offer(s)?

[Hugh2]

$10 mill.

 

You could argue Kike is better, despite a marginally better WAR (maybe games played close the gap) but if you're more of a BWar guy for position players Kike is clearly better. Also, he offers more positional flexibility than Frazier does.

 

Kike could have done better in free agency, and there's a ton of value tied to a 1 year deal opposed to being on the hook for multiple seasons.

[moonslav59]

We’ve gone over this 100 times too. To me Kike is a good utility guy, who is good at different positions, but plays full time for the Red Sox, because they have NO ONE better. If Duran had worked out in CF do you think Kike would have been resigned for $10M? Once again I’m not saying Kike is bad, but I certainly don’t rate him as highly as you. We disagree, and there is nothing wrong with that.

 

I know your position. If I disagree, then I think there is something wrong with your position. That's just how it works.

 

I'm fine agreeing to disagree.

 

To answer your question, and I wish you'd answer mine, yes, even if Duran hit .850, we'd have re-signed Kike, because we still need an OF'er after this signing.

[moonslav59]

Don't look too far.

 

FWIW last offseason Tommy Pham was a 33-year-old outfielder who had posted 15.9 fWAR in 732 career games when Pham signed a one-year, $7.5 million contract with the Cincinnati Reds.

 

Kiki Hernandez is a 31-year-old utility player who has posted 12.3 fWAR in 903 career games.

 

This season Hernandez has posted 0.4 fWAR in 79 games while Pham has posted 1.0 fWAR in 132 games.

 

FWIW

 

I mentioned Pham, and I'm not sure anyone would have chosen him over Kike last winter.

 

Hindsight is easy.

 

I'm talking about 2024.

 

Also, I and GMs don't place value on just the previous season value.

[Old Red]

I know your position. If I disagree, then I think there is something wrong with your position. That's just how it works.

 

I'm fine agreeing to disagree.

 

To answer your question, and I wish you'd answer mine, yes, even if Duran hit .850, we'd have re-signed Kike, because we still need an OF'er after this signing.

I get your point about Kike, and always have, but I just don’t value him as highly as you do. You see him one way, and I see him another. I’m not saying I’m right, and I’m not saying your wrong, but we just disagree. If Duran would have worked out in the field, and with the bat he would have been in the plans for CF next year, and not Kike, so I think depending on what the plan is with Dugy they would have signed a corner OF instead of Kike. Duran would have been a cheap fix, but he sucks.

[harmony]

You could argue Kike is better, despite a marginally better WAR (maybe games played close the gap) but if you're more of a BWar guy for position players Kike is clearly better. Also, he offers more positional flexibility than Frazier does.

 

Kike could have done better in free agency, and there's a ton of value tied to a 1 year deal opposed to being on the hook for multiple seasons.

 

FWIW this season Adam Frazier has played more positions, including every position Kiki Hernandez has played.

 

However, Frazier lacks Hernandez's reputation in center field, a critical defensive position.

[moonslav59]

We’ve gone over this 100 times too. To me Kike is a good utility guy, who is good at different positions, but plays full time for the Red Sox, because they have NO ONE better.

 

Every starter plays because the team has no one better.

[mvp 78]

I get your point about Kike, and always have, but I just don’t value him as highly as you do. You see him one way, and I see him another. I’m not saying I’m right, and I’m not saying your wrong, but we just disagree. If Duran would have worked out in the field, and with the bat he would have been in the plans for CF next year, and not Kike, so I think depending on what the plan is with Dugy they would have signed a corner OF instead of Kike. Duran would have been a cheap fix, but he sucks.

 

So instead of having another expiring contract (Kiké) just coming off the books, they did something about it.

[mvp 78]

FWIW this season Adam Frazier has played more positions, including every position Kiki Hernandez has played.

 

However, Frazier lacks Hernandez's reputation in center field, a critical defensive position.

 

It's not "reputation" that Frazier lacks in CF, it's "ability."

[moonslav59]

One comp for Kiki Hernandez might be Seattle's Adam Frazier, a pending free agent who is four months younger than Hernandez.

 

Frazier is a second baseman who this season has made 35 appearances in the outfield and two at shortstop.

 

A 2021 All Star, Frazier has posted 11.6 fWAR (and 99 wRC+) in 809 career games, including 3.6 fWAR (and 113 wRC+) in 155 games last year.

 

Hernandez has posted 12.3 fWAR (and 99 wRC+) in 903 career games, including 4.1 fWAR (and 109 wRC+) in 134 games last year.

 

This season Frazier has posted 1.2 fWAR (and 81 wRC+) in 144 games while Hernandez has posted 0.4 fWAR (and 81 wRC+) in 79 games.

 

What would be an appropriate free agent contract for Frazier, who is earning $8 million in his final arbitration season?

 

Do you think career WAR and total games means more than a player's previous 2, 3 or 5 season numbers?

 

Do you think this year's WAR is more important than a player's previous 2,3, 4 or 5 season numbers?

 

I'm just curious, because you seem to only post those two WAR numbers, and IMO, a player's career trend matters more to GMs than what you did over a short and recent sample size or what you did early in your career, sometime 6, 7 or 10+ years ago.

 

I'm not bashing you, but genuinely want to know.

[Old Red]

Every starter plays because the team has no one better.

 

I agree for the most part, but not always. A bad contract can result in longevity on a team, because of that contract, and not , because they are better.

[harmony]

It's not "reputation" that Frazier lacks in CF, it's "ability."

They're related.

[Old Red]

So instead of having another expiring contract (Kiké) just coming off the books, they did something about it.

 

I was talking about the bigger money contracts, but yes they have done something about it, so now we see if it was a good signing, or not.

[moonslav59]

I get your point about Kike, and always have, but I just don’t value him as highly as you do. You see him one way, and I see him another. I’m not saying I’m right, and I’m not saying your wrong, but we just disagree. If Duran would have worked out in the field, and with the bat he would have been in the plans for CF next year, and not Kike, so I think depending on what the plan is with Dugy they would have signed a corner OF instead of Kike. Duran would have been a cheap fix, but he sucks.

 

I sincerely think that had Duran been a capable CF'er on D and hit well enough to be slotted as our 2024 CF, something I never thought would happen, so I'm not sure why it matters, here, we'd still have signed Kike for $10M/1. We still need an OF'er and 2B/SS, and Kike plays all very well on D and is more than okay on O.

 

BTW, I have no problem with anyone not valuing some players as highly as I do, but you seem to go out of your way to show he is worth less than many others feel he is worth.

 

I wonder what the majority of Sox Nations feels about Kike.

[moonslav59]

FWIW this season Adam Frazier has played more positions, including every position Kiki Hernandez has played.

 

However, Frazier lacks Hernandez's reputation in center field, a critical defensive position.

 

And understanding the Sox position on wanting plus D in CF and RF, as evidenced by the JBJ trade, I don't think Frazier is a realistic comp to Kike in CF.

[moonslav59]

I was talking about the bigger money contracts, but yes they have done something about it, so now we see if it was a good signing, or not.

 

It's one year.

 

Maybe not spending big on a better CF'er will mean we get a better pitcher, RF'er or can afford Bogey.

[harmony]

Do you think career WAR and total games means more than a player's previous 2, 3 or 5 season numbers?

 

Do you think this year's WAR is more important than a player's previous 2,3, 4 or 5 season numbers?

 

I'm just curious, because you seem to only post those two WAR numbers, and IMO, a player's career trend matters more to GMs than what you did over a short and recent sample size or what you did early in your career, sometime 6, 7 or 10+ years ago.

 

I'm not bashing you, but genuinely want to know.

One-year, two-year and careers stats are provided to provide a more comprehensive view than a single stat standing alone.

 

A reader can choose to incorporate any stat into a valuation ... or ignore every stat.

 

It was noteworthy that Kiki Hernandez and Adam Frazier experienced their career years in 2021 at the same age. Hence, the inclusion of their 2021 WAR and wRC+ totals.

[moonslav59]

One-year, two-year and careers stats are provided to provide a more comprehensive view than a single stat standing alone.

 

A reader can choose to incorporate any stat into a valuation ... or ignore every stat.

 

It was noteworthy that Kiki Hernandez and Adam Frazier experienced their career years in 2021 at the same age. Hence, the inclusion of their 2021 WAR and wRC+ totals.

 

I admire the attempt to find a comp, and in many ways, it's a good one, but we need a CF'er and RF'er for 2024.

 

I doubt Bloom would even kick Frazier's tires, unless he thinks he could play 2B and Story SS.

 

BTW, I also think Frasier gets $10M/1 or more and will not be as a CF'er.

[harmony]

And understanding the Sox position on wanting plus D in CF and RF, as evidenced by the JBJ trade, I don't think Frazier is a realistic comp to Kike in CF.

Everyone presumably would give Kiki Hernandez the clear defensive edge over Adam Frazier in center field. This season and in the foreseeable future the Seattle Mariners are fortunate to have a better option in center field.

[Hugh2]

Adam Frazier isn't a bad comp, if we're talking purely about value. Their stat lines are very similar, with Kike you're going to get a little more SLG, and with Frazier, you're going to get a little bit more AVG. I'd say that when it comes to defense Kike is better, 7.3 career DWar to Fraziers 2.5, but Frazier is still a plus defender and as pointed out even provides positional versatility that Kike does too.

 

It's a good enough comp to say if Frazier can get 8 million in arbitration, that 10 million for Kike is a good deal.

 

I think most view it as a good deal. Maybe he spends all year on the D.L. and it looks bad in hindsight, but if he's healthy for even just most of the seasons, he's going to be worth a lot more than 10 million dollars.

[harmony]

I admire the attempt to find a comp, and in many ways, it's a good one, but we need a CF'er and RF'er for 2024.

 

I doubt Bloom would even kick Frazier's tires, unless he thinks he could play 2B and Story SS.

 

BTW, I also think Frasier gets $10M/1 or more and will not be as a CF'er.

No team will pursue Adam Frazier as a potential center fielder. Frazier will continue only as an emergency replacement in center field ... and a dire emergency at that:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU202207300.shtml