2022 Bullpen Thread

[moonslav59]

Crawford at least has that Seattle start, but I’d prefer him in a smaller bullpen role. But I do agree with them there is MLB talent; it’s just borderline talent that is best used properly.

 

Winckowski and Seabold do both deserve a look. But if you’re right about Seabold, it does kill off any firesale talk for now…

 

There is always an issue about when and for how long you give a prospect a look, when you are in the middle of a playoff attempt.

 

Maybe one reason bad teams seem to develop more good young pitchers is that they can give them long looks in low pressure settings.

 

I've been talking up Seabold for a long time. I can't think of why we haven't given him a try, by now, other than something like I just mentioned.

 

I think German has not been given a try, because they think he needs a little more time in AAA.

 

Kelly, Ort and others are probably just not viewed as good enough to displace a vet. Instead, they choose to recycle players who have already been tried before, in hopes we catch them on an upswing.

 

It's not like that has not been tried by many teams for many years.

[Bellhorn04]

I’ve always thought Diekman was good. And his long career is proof others have agreed. But his career long battles with walks is the one thing that makes him prone to off years and reckless outings…

 

Diekman had an fWAR of -0.1 last year and -0.5 this year. He might have been good once, but he's not now.

[moonslav59]

I’ve always thought Diekman was good. And his long career is proof others have agreed. But his career long battles with walks is the one thing that makes him prone to off years and reckless outings…

 

His one good season since 2016 was the short 2020 season, when he had 20 IP.

 

His 6.5 Hits per 9 IP from 2019-2021 is impressive enough to think he has something good in him. 12.4 K/9 is nice, too. I'm not saying he's been totally ineffective, but yes, that 5.3 BB/9 during that same stretch and 5.1 career was enough to scare me away from wanting anything to do with him. Hell, we had that guy in DHern, already in the system for min wage.

 

DHern, since 2019:

7.0 H/9 (slightly worse)

7.4 BB/9 (much worse)

14.2 K/9 (much better)

1.1 HR/9 to Diekman's 0.9 HR/9

 

FIP

3.81 Diekman

3.85 DHern

[Old Red]

To me his most perplexing move so far has been the Houck/Whitlock Bullpen rotation shuffle. I don’t get why both earmarked relievers got bounced around so much and never had their slots backfilled once we all learned Sale was going to be out.

 

I mean, why not just get another starter?

 

It took 50+ games, but finally at least for now anyways Houck it appears is the closer. Don’t know if he can do the job, or not, and hasn’t pitched in back to back days yet, but it is worth a try, and the options are limited outside of a trade. The BP has played a big part in the season so far, and I got a feeling will play a big part going forward especially with that tough stretch coming up. It will will interested to see how things shake out when the injured trio of Sale, Evol, and Whitlock come back. Barnes is also in limbo.

[moonslav59]

The Rays have been held up as the shiny example of how to build a dependable pen, year-after-year, with very little financial investment and not always so much from their farm, but rather from shrewd signings, trades and waiver wire pick-ups.

 

The hope was that Bloom could bring that to the Sox. Last year seemed to show some promise, and the additions of Whitlock (rule 5), Schreiber (waivers), Strahm (cheap FA deal) and a few others have shown a step in the right direction, but here's a look at the OPS Against numbers of the top Rays pen arms in order of PAs against: (Remember, they use pen games, often)

 

.649 Wisler (108 PAs Against in relief)

.808 Thompson 98

.329 Adam 96

.799 Garza 96

.607 Beeks 93

.536 Poche 83

.536 Raley 79

.638 Kittredge 75

,264 Feyereisen 74

.844 Fleming 56

.590 Sanders 39

.686 Armstrong 39

.316 Springs 36

1.152 Mazza 35

9 other pitchers used in relief with less than 35 PAs against

 

They've used over double the amoun t of pitchers in relief than we have (29>14).

 

We've used 13 pitchers for more than 35 PAs Against to their 20. Now, the pen games and designated starter practice makes a difference, but who are those guys? Where did they find them?

 

I never heard of most of them.

[Old Red]

His one good season since 2016 was the short 2020 season, when he had 20 IP.

 

His 6.5 Hits per 9 IP from 2019-2021 is impressive enough to think he has something good in him. 12.4 K/9 is nice, too. I'm not saying he's been totally ineffective, but yes, that 5.3 BB/9 during that same stretch and 5.1 career was enough to scare me away from wanting anything to do with him. Hell, we had that guy in DHern, already in the system for min wage.

 

DHern, since 2019:

7.0 H/9 (slightly worse)

7.4 BB/9 (much worse)

14.2 K/9 (much better)

1.1 HR/9 to Diekman's 0.9 HR/9

 

FIP

3.81 Diekman

3.85 DHern

 

He did have the best save of the season so far when he struck out the side against the Yankees on Sunday night baseball opening weekend, but outside of that has been shaky for the most part.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If 26yo Connor Seabold and 24yo Josh Winckowski -neither of whom have anything left to prove in AAA - are not ready, when will they be? In their early 30s?

 

Dunno. But for some reason Bloom and his boys just won't keep them in Boston: promotions, spot starts, demotions, rinse, repeat...

[notin]

Diekman had an fWAR of -0.1 last year and -0.5 this year. He might have been good once, but he's not now.

 

The -0.5 this year might not be the best metric when talking about his signing. He did have a -0.1 fWAR in 2021 (and a 0.4bWAR). But that was also his only negative WAR in his career…

[Bellhorn04]

The -0.5 this year might not be the best metric when talking about his signing. He did have a -0.1 fWAR in 2021 (and a 0.4bWAR). But that was also his only negative WAR in his career…

 

Let's do 2018-2021 and throw in Ottavino, who is about the same age:

 

Diekman 197.1 IP 2.0 fWAR got 2 years $8 mill

McHugh 211.0 IP 3.7 fWAR 2 years $10 mill

Ottavino 224.1 IP 3.9 fWAR 1 year $4 mill

 

McHugh and Ottavino were both more than 50% better.

 

I just don't see what Bloom actually liked about Diekman.

[moonslav59]

The -0.5 this year might not be the best metric when talking about his signing. He did have a -0.1 fWAR in 2021 (and a 0.4bWAR). But that was also his only negative WAR in his career…

 

I'm not sure the fewest amount of negative WARs is the best metric, either.

 

He pitched in 10 MLB seasons before 2022 (only 2 under 25 IP) and he only had a fWAR above 1.o, once- back in 2014. Since then, we've seen:

0.5, 0.8, 0.0, 0.6, 1.0, 0.5, -0.1. For what he was paid, that's not awful, but before the Story signing, Bloom had only given 2 year deals to Kike and Sawamura. I just don't see what this guy has done to get Bloom to go 2.

 

His bWAR has been very different from fWAR and that 2014 season was a negative using bWAR. Starting in 2012...

-0.4

0.6

-0.2

-0.3

0.9

1.1

0.4

0.2

0.3

0.0

1.4 in 2020's 20 IP season

0.4

 

He's +0.1 in 2022, according to bWAR. Enough to convince me fWAR is better.

 

 

 

[notin]

Let's do 2018-2021 and throw in Ottavino, who is about the same age:

 

Diekman 197.1 IP 2.0 fWAR got 2 years $8 mill

McHugh 211.0 IP 3.7 fWAR 2 years $10 mill

Ottavino 224.1 IP 3.9 fWAR 1 year $4 mill

 

McHugh and Ottavino were both more than 50% better.

 

I just don't see what Bloom actually liked about Diekman.

 

Well he did acquire all 3 of them at some point…

[moonslav59]

Well he did acquire all 3 of them at some point…

 

It seems his timing has been off on some, especially Perez.

 

(Springs, Mazza...)

[Bellhorn04]

It seems his timing has been off on some, especially Perez.

 

(Springs, Mazza...)

 

Nobody could have seen Perez's 2022 season coming.

 

Springs has been good. Mazza hasn't done much.

[moonslav59]

Nobody could have seen Perez's 2022 season coming.

 

Springs has been good. Mazza hasn't done much.

 

With Mazza, I was thinking more about 2020 (1.633 WHIP with us) vs 1.207 in 2021 w TBR.

 

Now, Weber is getting a chance with the Yanks.

 

Richards:

1.247 WHIP w SDP in '20

1.595 WHIP w Sox in '21

1.114 WHIP w TEX in '22

[Larry Cook]

How is Cora not a raging alcoholic? These 9th innings are brutal.

 

I do out know what the record is for runs surrendered in the 9th inning for a season, but we have to be on pace to destroy it!

[Bellhorn04]

With Mazza, I was thinking more about 2020 (1.633 WHIP with us) vs 1.207 in 2021 w TBR.

 

Now, Weber is getting a chance with the Yanks.

 

Richards:

1.247 WHIP w SDP in '20

1.595 WHIP w Sox in '21

1.114 WHIP w TEX in '22

 

AFAIK, Weber did an emergency fill-in and was promptly DFA'd.

 

A lot of these middle-of-the-road pitchers have ups and downs that are hard to predict.

 

Bloom's acquisitions of Pivetta and Wacha are looking pretty damn good right now.

[Bellhorn04]

How is Cora not a raging alcoholic? These 9th innings are brutal.

 

I do out know what the record is for runs surrendered in the 9th inning for a season, but we have to be on pace to destroy it!

 

That was nutty having 6-1 leads in the 9th twice and nearly blowing them.

 

Houck may have just gotten his baptism by fire as a closer, though.

[moonslav59]

How is Cora not a raging alcoholic? These 9th innings are brutal.

 

I do out know what the record is for runs surrendered in the 9th inning for a season, but we have to be on pace to destroy it!

 

Runs per inning:

 

37 3rd (.55 runs per inning)

34 8th

33 5th

33 9th (9 less games than innings 1 to 8) 33 in 58 games= 0.57 runs/inning

30 6th

27 2nd

24 1st

20 7th

16 4th

16 in 8 extra inning games

[moonslav59]

AFAIK, Weber did an emergency fill-in and was promptly DFA'd.

 

A lot of these middle-of-the-road pitchers have ups and downs that are hard to predict.

 

Bloom's acquisitions of Pivetta and Wacha are looking pretty damn good right now.

 

Don't forget waiver wire addition, Schreiber.

[vegasbob]

Runs per inning:

 

37 3rd (.55 runs per inning)

34 8th

33 5th

33 9th (9 less games than innings 1 to 8) 33 in 58 games= 0.57 runs/inning

30 6th

27 2nd

24 1st

20 7th

16 4th

16 in 8 extra inning games

 

Combine the 8th and 9th for 67 in 58 games, almost all on the BP's ledger (except 3 CG's) or 1.16 runs per game in last two innings. The two with the Cardinals, Friday/Sunday--both wins, are actually outliers and the Saturday big loss didn't matter because it was unwinnable after Crawford's first inning.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Runs per inning:

 

37 3rd (.55 runs per inning)

34 8th

33 5th

33 9th (9 less games than innings 1 to 8) 33 in 58 games= 0.57 runs/inning

30 6th

27 2nd

24 1st

20 7th

16 4th

16 in 8 extra inning games

 

It's apparent from this data we don't need a closer for the 9th as much as a shutdown reliever to smoke those pesky bottoms of the order in the 3rds!

[Larry Cook]

It's apparent from this data we don't need a closer for the 9th as much as a shutdown reliever to smoke those pesky bottoms of the order in the 3rds!

 

So it appears our bullpen juggernauts come out onto the field for the 9th inning, and start tossing meatballs. And then wake up the next morning wondering why their necks are sore!

 

This bullpen is uglier than a Steinbrenner family reunion!

[moonslav59]

The return of Big Nate, Whitlock and Sale may- help improve the pen by attrition.

[mvp 78]

@IanMBrowne

Tanner Houck is still not vaccinated. Alex Cora said the righty will not be making the trip to Toronto a week from today.

[Larry Cook]

The return of Big Nate, Whitlock and Sale may- help improve the pen by attrition.

 

I think Whitlock is close, but it sounds like eovaldi and sale are about 4 weeks out and then Paxton in six to eight weeks.

[moonslav59]

@IanMBrowne

Tanner Houck is still not vaccinated. Alex Cora said the righty will not be making the trip to Toronto a week from today.

 

They shouldn't have to pay him those games.

[illinoisredsox]

They shouldn't have to pay him those games.

 

Per the CBA, he does not get paid for any games in Toronto. Based on his $716K salary, he's giving up roughly $45K in salary due to his vaccination status. Houck also accrues no service time for those same games.

[Old Red]

@IanMBrowne

Tanner Houck is still not vaccinated. Alex Cora said the righty will not be making the trip to Toronto a week from today.

 

The Red Sox had to juggle things around last time they went to Toronto, because of Houck, and now him being the closer makes it worse.

[moonslav59]

Per the CBA, he does not get paid for any games in Toronto. Based on his $716K salary, he's giving up roughly $45K in salary due to his vaccination status. Houck also accrues no service time for those same games.

 

It should be double or triple the pay, IMO.

[notin]

The Red Sox had to juggle things around last time they went to Toronto, because of Houck, and now him being the closer makes it worse.

 

Only if they have a small late lead…