2022 Starting Rotation Thread

[Bellhorn04]

We have a team ERA of 3.66. Guess what? It's our offense that's killing us.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

At the same ages, Gausman had a 4.40 ERA from 2018-2020. And he followed up with an All Star appearance…

 

Different histories; Gausman was never a star until finally making it in SF. Wacha actually was an All-Star at an early age -- he was the next big thing according to FOX before the Red Sox spoiled all their promos in the '13 World Series. But lots of injuries seemingly ruined Wacha's potential. Boston's thread-bare rotation really needs him to stay healthy all year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We have a team ERA of 3.66. Guess what? It's our offense that's killing us.

 

Trade Houck to a National League team for a young energetic bat today. And if that same team has a dead-weight contract for an older bat that can come off the bench or DH when JD gets hurt again, include Sale in the deal.

 

We'll get along fine without both... because, one way or another, the Red Sox have no choice.

[notin]

We have a team ERA of 3.66. Guess what? It's our offense that's killing us.

 

But the perception is the offense has star players and money has been spent there, so the feeling is they will come around. But the pitching staff lacks the stars and lacks the money being spent, so they’re the problem.

 

And given the track records of all the players on the roster, the pitching did appear to have more question marks. Especially if Sale is declining..

[mvp 78]

Was five years at $115 million too much to pay for 30-year-old lefthander Robbie Ray coming off a Cy Young season?

 

Over this first three starts Ray had posted only a negative 0.1 fWAR and 0.0 bWAR before posting his third quality start on Sunday. Ray's ERA of 3.91 would be about 2.55 but for a four-run second inning in a Chicago monsoon on April 13.

 

Ray has gone at least six innings in all four starts but has seen his strikeout rate drop precipitously from his career rate of 11.1 per nine innings.

 

The worth of Ray's contract may be determined by whether Ray helps the Seattle Mariners to the postseason rather than whether his production justifies his salaries in Years 4 and 5 of the contract.

 

I'm not a Ray fan. I think last year was his high point as an MLBer. He's been very volatile in the past. SEA could be a good fit for him though.

[notin]

Trade Houck to a National League team for a young energetic bat today. And if that same team has a dead-weight contract for an older bat that can come off the bench or DH when JD gets hurt again, include Sale in the deal.

 

We'll get along fine without both... because, one way or another, the Red Sox have no choice.

 

I’ll make a bold prediction - Houck will be extended before Devers…

[mvp 78]

We have a team ERA of 3.66. Guess what? It's our offense that's killing us.

 

The bottom half of the lineup has been brutal. Many people thought that we'd hide JBJ at the bottom of the order, but he's been the best bat down there.

 

Kiké really didn't get going until July last year. He's always been a streaky hitter and he started off cold last season too.

 

Vaz/Plawecki are what they are at this point in their careers. I'm not sure how much longer either are in the org.

 

Dalbec has been absolutely brutal. At least his defense seems a little better than at the start of last year. He also started off slow last year.

 

The bench has been absolutely terrible (Shaw/Arroyo/Arauz).

 

To really get this lineup going, Story and Devers will have to hit the next gear and the bottom of the order needs to be fixed.

 

At what point is Casas (903 OPS, 16K, 13BB) ready? Should they call up Yolmer Sanchez for the UTIL role (1067 OPS, 12K, 13BB)? Would Fitzgerald be able to hit at the next level (1046 OPS, 19k, 5BB)? Is this lineup much better if Dalbec is replaced by Casas, Dalbec takes the bench bat role from Shaw (DFA), Arroyo (DFA) is replaced by Yolmer and Arauz (option to AAA) is replaced by Fitzy?

[mvp 78]

I’ll make a bold prediction - Houck will be extended before Devers…

 

Yeah, they aren't extending Devers.

[moonslav59]

The bottom half of the lineup has been brutal. Many people thought that we'd hide JBJ at the bottom of the order, but he's been the best bat down there.

 

Kiké really didn't get going until July last year. He's always been a streaky hitter and he started off cold last season too.

 

Vaz/Plawecki are what they are at this point in their careers. I'm not sure how much longer either are in the org.

 

Dalbec has been absolutely brutal. At least his defense seems a little better than at the start of last year. He also started off slow last year.

 

The bench has been absolutely terrible (Shaw/Arroyo/Arauz).

 

To really get this lineup going, Story and Devers will have to hit the next gear and the bottom of the order needs to be fixed.

 

At what point is Casas (903 OPS, 16K, 13BB) ready? Should they call up Yolmer Sanchez for the UTIL role (1067 OPS, 12K, 13BB)? Would Fitzgerald be able to hit at the next level (1046 OPS, 19k, 5BB)? Is this lineup much better if Dalbec is replaced by Casas, Dalbec takes the bench bat role from Shaw (DFA), Arroyo (DFA) is replaced by Yolmer and Arauz (option to AAA) is replaced by Fitzy?

 

Kike's two best months, career, are July and August. Can we wait that long?

 

Singing to the choir on our catching position needing an upgrade.

 

I wanted Fitzy on the 28 man roster opening day. I hope he's called up, soon.

 

I don't think we DFA Arroyo: trade, maybe. Teams will want him. I agree on Shaw and Arauz needing to go.

 

The Dalbec-Casas choice might be forced earlier than we wanted. I'll leave that one to management.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I’ll make a bold prediction - Houck will be extended before Devers…

 

I think they're both goners, and I don't feel bold nor italicized.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The bench has been absolutely terrible (Shaw/Arroyo/Arauz).

 

To really get this lineup going, Story and Devers will have to hit the next gear and the bottom of the order needs to be fixed.

 

At what point is Casas (903 OPS, 16K, 13BB) ready? Should they call up Yolmer Sanchez for the UTIL role (1067 OPS, 12K, 13BB)? Would Fitzgerald be able to hit at the next level (1046 OPS, 19k, 5BB)? Is this lineup much better if Dalbec is replaced by Casas, Dalbec takes the bench bat role from Shaw (DFA), Arroyo (DFA) is replaced by Yolmer and Arauz (option to AAA) is replaced by Fitzy?

 

The bench is absolutely terrible. I like your idea of promoting Yolmer, Fitzy and Casas. None of these moves would be major shake-ups, but could be wake-ups.

[mvp 78]

The bench is absolutely terrible. I like your idea of promoting Yolmer, Fitzy and Casas. None of these moves would be major shake-ups, but could be wake-ups.

 

I think bringing up Fitzy and Yolmer ASAP would be fine. I don't think they are worried about Fitzy's long term development since he'll be 28 this year. I would understand if they wanted to keep Casas down a little longer if they thought he could work on some things in games that don't necessarily count.

[Bellhorn04]

Kike's two best months, career, are July and August. Can we wait that long?

 

Wait that long to do what?

[mvp 78]

Wait that long to do what?

 

To sell off the team.

[moonslav59]

Wait that long to do what?

 

For him to carry us, like he did for part of 2021.

 

We may be out of it by then.

 

Maybe someone else needs to step it up to carry us to July.

[moonslav59]

To sell off the team.

 

I guess that's an option, if we keep playing like this, but I'm not ready to talk about that, right now.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess that's an option, if we keep playing like this, but I'm not ready to talk about that, right now.

 

Sure you are LOL

[vegasbob]

1. So you still think pitching is the problem?

2. At any point do you acknowledge the 4 WS titles in that 15-20 year stretch?

 

I was addressing the "Starting Rotation Thread" topic .

 

The 4 WS wins are not only acknowledged but much appreciated. No other 21st century team has achieved that mark. But it doesn't say much about the 2022 starting rotation , as most of the pitching contributions to that very nice run were from bought and paid for FA's, not drafted/developed pitching. It would have been off topic to put 2022's record through 10% of the season on the hitters .

[moonslav59]

Sure you are LOL

 

I'm certainly not hoping it happens, but it is in the back of my mind, after this lack-luster start of the season, and Sale's return timeline largely unknown.

 

If and when the time comes, I'll talk about it then.

 

I still have faith in this club making a nice run to make the playoffs and maybe advance a round or two.

[notin]

Trade Houck to a National League team for a young energetic bat today. And if that same team has a dead-weight contract for an older bat that can come off the bench or DH when JD gets hurt again, include Sale in the deal.

 

We'll get along fine without both... because, one way or another, the Red Sox have no choice.

 

 

Maybe if Houck keeps up his anti-vax beliefs…

[harmony]

I'm certainly not hoping it happens, but it is in the back of my mind, after this lack-luster start of the season, and Sale's return timeline largely unknown.

 

If and when the time comes, I'll talk about it then.

 

I still have faith in this club making a nice run to make the playoffs and maybe advance a round or two.

FanGraphs currently gives the Red Sox a 53.5 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while FiveThirtyEight has the Sox chances at 46 percent:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-mlb-predictions/

[moonslav59]

I was addressing the "Starting Rotation Thread" topic .

 

The 4 WS wins are not only acknowledged but much appreciated. No other 21st century team has achieved that mark. But it doesn't say much about the 2022 starting rotation , as most of the pitching contributions to that very nice run were from bought and paid for FA's, not drafted/developed pitching. It would have been off topic to put 2022's record through 10% of the season on the hitters .

 

The 4 ring seasons all were marked by 1 or two things: a solid rotation and pretty good health from the rotation (as measured by GS'd.) This is not to say we always win when we have good healthy starters, but when we do win, we always do:

 

2004: (only 5 starts from below our 5th starter)

GS Pitcher ERA+

33 Pedro 124

33 Lowe 89 (did well in PO's)

32 Schilling 148

30 Wakefield 99

29 Arroyo 120

 

2007: (only 11 starts below our 6th man- Lester)

32 DiceK 108

31 Wake 100

30 Beckett 145

24 Schilling 123

23 Tavarez 92

11 Lester 104

7 Gabbard 128

 

2013: (added Peavy at the deadline)

33 Lester 110

29 Lackey 117

29 Dempster 90

27 Doubront 95

16 Buchholz 237

10 Peavy 102

(18 starts by 5 guys)

 

2018 (added Eovaldi that summer)

33 Porcello 103

30 Price 123

27 Sale 209

23 ERod 116

13 Johnson 106

11 Eovaldi 133

11 Pomeranz 73

8 Velazquez 139

4 Wright 165

2 by 2 guys combined

 

2022 after 10% of the season:

3 Houck 141

3 Eovaldi 110

3 Wacha 215

3 Hill 84

3 Pivetta 41

1 Whitlock 615

 

While some of these ERA+ numbers look very good, does anyone really think this rotation will come close to matching the 4 WS ring teams?

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs currently gives the Red Sox a 53.5 percent chance of advancing to the postseason while FiveThirtyEight has the Sox chances at 46 percent:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-mlb-predictions/

 

Sounds about right. I'm on the over 50% line, right now.

[mvp 78]

While some of these ERA+ numbers look very good, does anyone really think this rotation will come close to matching the 4 WS ring teams?

 

Pivetta 21 - 104

Wacha 18 - 121

Houck 22 - 141

Whitlock 22 - 615

Eovaldi 21 - 126

 

If Pivetta pitched like last season, Wacha had a throw back year, Eovaldi pitched like last season and Houk/Whitlock had a break out, I think it could rival at least 2 of the WS rotations.

[moonslav59]

Pivetta 21 - 104

Wacha 18 - 121

Houck 22 - 141

Whitlock 22 - 615

Eovaldi 21 - 126

 

If Pivetta pitched like last season, Wacha had a throw back year, Eovaldi pitched like last season and Houk/Whitlock had a break out, I think it could rival at least 2 of the WS rotations.

 

4 ifs is more than many non ring rotations had in years past.

 

I'm not saying it can't happen, especially if Whitlock & Houck stay starting, but if they do, our pen will suffer.

[mvp 78]

4 ifs is more than many non ring rotations had in years past.

 

I'm not saying it can't happen, especially if Whitlock & Houck stay starting, but if they do, our pen will suffer.

 

Disagree. The 2018 rotations had 4 ifs (Porcello, Price, Johnson, ERod). The 2013 staff had just come off the chicken/beer nonsense and none of the pitchers had a 100 ERA+ the year before.

[moonslav59]

Disagree. The 2018 rotations had 4 ifs (Porcello, Price, Johnson, ERod). The 2013 staff had just come off the chicken/beer nonsense and none of the pitchers had a 100 ERA+ the year before.

 

Okay, all pitchers are "ifs," but if you think the 2018 rotation had bigger or more ifs than this one, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[Bellhorn04]

Disagree. The 2018 rotations had 4 ifs (Porcello, Price, Johnson, ERod). The 2013 staff had just come off the chicken/beer nonsense and none of the pitchers had a 100 ERA+ the year before.

 

The 2013 rotation was loaded with ifs.

[mvp 78]

The 2013 rotation was loaded with ifs.

 

Oh, they didn't all compete for the CY in 2012 like moon remembers?

[notin]

The 2013 rotation was loaded with ifs.

 

The 2013 rotation was basically the last place 2012 rotation, but with the sole addition of Ryan Dempster.

 

Lackey did come back after missing 2012, but given his awful 2011 season, he headed the list of question marks…