The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Nick]

Cot's.....I think it's more of 40 man CBT payroll at year end. But I do think it takes into account mid summer acquisitions.

[moonslav59]

Cot's.....I think it's more of 40 man CBT payroll at year end. But I do think it takes into account mid summer acquisitions.

 

But they do not list yearly rankings over the years. I'd have to look up each team, individually over 25 years. That's looking up 750 individual data points (25 years x 30 teams.)

[Nick]

But they do not list yearly rankings over the years. I'd have to look up each team, individually over 25 years. That's looking up 750 individual data points (25 years x 30 teams.)

 

Year Opening Day 26-man Year End 40-man CB Tax 40-man

 

2021 $147,825,000 (12) $152,189,618 (13) $165,665,645 (15)

2020 $ 73,428,704 ( 5) $ 80,584,972( 5) $216,269,251 ( 3)

2019 $203,079,488 ( 3) $220,307,173 ( 3) $237,199,519 ( 2)

2018 $182,406,139 ( 4) $198,733,661 ( 3) $193,316,649 ( 5 )

 

I just assumed the number in parenthesis was the rankings.

 

Opening Day payrolls compiled by Baseball Prospectus include salaries and pro-rated signing bonuses for players on the active 25/26-man roster and injured list. Deferred payments and performance and award bonuses are not included.

 

Year End 40-man roster payrolls obtained by The Associated Press include salaries and pro-rated shares of signing bonuses, earned performance and award bonuses, non-cash compensation, buyouts of unexercised options and cash transactions. Deferrals may be discounted to reflect present-day value.

 

Year End Competitive Balance Tax payrolls obtained by The Associated Press include average annual value of contracts, earned bonuses, non-cash compensation, cash transactions, buyouts of unexercised options, and health and pension benefits. Deferrals may be discounted to reflect present-day value.

Edited January 17, 2022 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Year Opening Day 26-man Year End 40-man CB Tax 40-man

 

2021 $147,825,000 (12) $152,189,618 (13) $165,665,645 (15)

2020 $ 73,428,704 ( 5) $ 80,584,972( 5) $216,269,251 ( 3)

2019 $203,079,488 ( 3) $220,307,173 ( 3) $237,199,519 ( 2)

2018 $182,406,139 ( 4) $198,733,661 ( 3) $193,316,649 ( 5 )

 

I just assumed the number in parenthesis was the rankings.

 

Opening Day payrolls compiled by Baseball Prospectus include salaries and pro-rated signing bonuses for players on the active 25/26-man roster and injured list. Deferred payments and performance and award bonuses are not included.

 

Year End 40-man roster payrolls obtained by The Associated Press include salaries and pro-rated shares of signing bonuses, earned performance and award bonuses, non-cash compensation, buyouts of unexercised options and cash transactions. Deferrals may be discounted to reflect present-day value.

 

Year End Competitive Balance Tax payrolls obtained by The Associated Press include average annual value of contracts, earned bonuses, non-cash compensation, cash transactions, buyouts of unexercised options, and health and pension benefits. Deferrals may be discounted to reflect present-day value.

 

That helps, but I feel lazy, today.

[Nick]

That helps, but I feel lazy, today.

 

You're best at these things.....

 

I simply refuse to believe we are 'cheap'. I believe Bloom is trying to come up with 'core' group to go for multiple championships.

 

In theory, we only have three players with multiple year contracts, Sale, Barnes and Xander. Xander can opt out after 2022.

 

I believe Bloom will fill out the roster with key free agent signings as soon as the 'core' group is identified, hopefully Devers will be at the top of his list.

 

That core group surely includes extending Devers and Eovaldi, along with Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta and Verdugo. I think he will retain Dalbec, expect Duran to get a shot at some point and Casas and Yorke to join the group. Plenty of minor league arms in the bullpen mix if not as a starter.

 

I like what's happening with our farm system.

Edited January 17, 2022 by Nick

[moonslav59]

You're best at these things.....

 

I simply refuse to believe we are 'cheap'. I believe Bloom is trying to come up with 'core' group to go for multiple championships.

 

In theory, we only have three players with multiple year contracts, Sale, Barnes and Xander. Xander can opt out after 2022.

 

I believe Bloom will fill out the roster with key free agent signings as soon as the 'core' group is identified, hopefully Devers will be at the top of his list.

 

That core group surely includes extending Devers and Eovaldi, along with Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta and Verdugo. I think he will retain Dalbec, expect Duran to get a shot at some point and Casas and Yorke to join the group. Plenty of minor league arms in the bullpen mix if not as a starter.

 

I like what's happening with our farm system.

 

I agree.

 

I do think Bloom prefers shorter term FA signings, but I think when the right player and time comes along, he will pounce.

 

Certainly, last winter was not the right time. This winter, I'm not sure the right player was out there, and yes, we have some issues like Bogey and Devers to figure out, before we can know what our longer term finances will look like.

 

I also think that because we did so well, last year, there is not an enormous pressure to go large and long on anyone. While one might view 2022 as a window closing season with Bogey, Eovaldi, Kike and others' team control expiring, and this being a good "time" to go large, I'm thinking maybe they view 2023 or 2024 as the best time to plan for major spending additions to push us over the top.

[moonslav59]

I added the final budget rankings:

 

(Note: Cots has different start of season rankings than my list provided.)

 

Year Team Opening Day Payroll/Final

2021 Braves 15th/14th

2020 Dodgers 1st/1st

2019 Nationals 3rd/4th

2018 Red Sox 1st/1st

2017 Astros 12th/18th

2016 Cubs 4th/5th

2015 Royals 12th/13th

2014 Giants 10th/6th

2013 Red Sox 3rd/3rd

2012 Giants 8th/6th

2011 Cardinals 11th/11th

2010 Giants 10th/11th

2009 Yankees 1st/1st

2008 Phillies 14th/6th

2007 Red Sox 2nd/2nd

2006 Cardinals 11th/10th

2005 White Sox 13th/13th

2004 Red Sox 2nd/2nd

2003 Marlins 25th/20th

2002 Angels 15th/14th

2001 D-backs 8th/4th

2000 Yankees 1st/1st

1999 Yankees 1st/N/A

1998 Yankees 2nd- N/A

1997 Marlins 7th- N/A

1996 Yankees 1st- N/A

1995 Braves 3rd- N/A

 

It's interesting to note that the 2003 Marlins finished 20th in spending, so by that list, no team ever won a ring while finishing a season as a bottom 10 spender.

 

13 of the last 22 WS winners spent in the top 6 by year's end. (Top 20% spenders won 59% of WS.)

7 from 11-14th

2 from 18-20th

 

None from #7-10

None from #15-17

None from #21-30

Edited January 17, 2022 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

I agree.

 

I do think Bloom prefers shorter term FA signings, but I think when the right player and time comes along, he will pounce.

 

Certainly, last winter was not the right time. This winter, I'm not sure the right player was out there, and yes, we have some issues like Bogey and Devers to figure out, before we can know what our longer term finances will look like.

 

I also think that because we did so well, last year, there is not an enormous pressure to go large and long on anyone. While one might view 2022 as a window closing season with Bogey, Eovaldi, Kike and others' team control expiring, and this being a good "time" to go large, I'm thinking maybe they view 2023 or 2024 as the best time to plan for major spending additions to push us over the top.

 

It’s going to take lots of pushing if Bogey, and Raffy aren’t around, and lots of money too. It could be a whole new look, and not necessarily a team that’s near, or over the top.

[moonslav59]

It’s going to take lots of pushing if Bogey, and Raffy aren’t around, and lots of money too. It could be a whole new look, and not necessarily a team that’s near, or over the top.

 

A ton of money comes off the books after 2022:

Bogey, JD, Eovaldi, Kike, Vaz, Wacha, Hill

 

If we don't spend, next winter, there will be hell to pay. (pun intended.)

[Nick]

A ton of money comes off the books after 2022:

Bogey, JD, Eovaldi, Kike, Vaz, Wacha, Hill

 

If we don't spend, next winter, there will be hell to pay. (pun intended.)

 

You throw in Price, Paxton (say if he's still hurt and options not picked) and JBJ (unlikely but we eat the option money in 2022), that's total of $123M to rebuild the team.

 

You're left with Barnes final year and Sale. Others will be either arbitration or pre-arbitration.

 

What I would like to see personally is to go after the shortstop we want (that can play defense) and extend Devers and build a team around them.

[moonslav59]

You throw in Price, Paxton (say if he's still hurt and options not picked) and JBJ (unlikely but we eat the option money in 2022), that's total of $123M to rebuild the team.

 

You're left with Barnes final year and Sale. Others will be either arbitration or pre-arbitration.

 

What I would like to see personally is to go after the shortstop we want (that can play defense) and extend Devers and build a team around them.

 

I'm all for ...

 

Devers forevers

 

An all around great SS or one that plays great D and adding a stud at another position.

[Old Red]

I'm all for ...

 

Devers forevers

 

An all around great SS or one that plays great D and adding a stud at another position.

 

It will be great to have millions of dollars to spend, but my question is how did we get to this point. Just a few years ago the Red Sox were coming off a WS Championship with a fairly young outfield, a fairly young left side of the IF, and if Boggey, and Raffy aren’t retained that will be pretty much a whole makeover of the team in 2023.

[moonslav59]

It will be great to have millions of dollars to spend, but my question is how did we get to this point. Just a few years ago the Red Sox were coming off a WS Championship with a fairly young outfield, a fairly young left side of the IF, and if Boggey, and Raffy aren’t retained that will be pretty much a whole makeover of the team in 2023.

 

Many saw the writing on the wall, when DD went just about all-in. The farm was nearly emptied- glad he kept Devers and drafted well.

 

Big contracts led to having to let Kimbrel and others go, needing to pay Eovaldi to "stay even," and paying Sale, knowing an injury was likely, at some point.

[Nick]

It will be great to have millions of dollars to spend, but my question is how did we get to this point. Just a few years ago the Red Sox were coming off a WS Championship with a fairly young outfield, a fairly young left side of the IF, and if Boggey, and Raffy aren’t retained that will be pretty much a whole makeover of the team in 2023.

 

We ended 2018 championship year with $239M in payroll and opened with $243M in 2019. I remind you that on paper our starting rotation was solid, E Rod (34), Porcello (32), Sale (25), Price (22) and Eovaldi (12). We had JD (.940 OPS), Xander (.939 OPS), Devers (.916) and Betts (.915) leading the offense. Both JBJ and Beni ranked lower half of AL in OPS. So much for that 'great' outfield fans make up as years go by.

 

Just like that our run was over.

 

We were up 2-1 in AL Championship Series with 2 games left up in Fenway. What more could you want?

 

It was an incredible season as far as I was concerned. It's a credit to Sox organization to become competitive again so quickly.

 

We complain too much.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Nick

[Old Red]

We ended 2018 championship year with $239M in payroll and opened with $243M in 2019. I remind you that on paper our starting rotation was solid, E Rod (34), Porcello (32), Sale (25), Price (22) and Eovaldi (12). We had JD (.940 OPS), Xander (.939 OPS), Devers (.916) and Betts (.915) leading the offense. Both JBJ and Beni ranked lower half of AL in OPS. So much for that 'great' outfield fans make up as years go by.

 

Just like that our run was over.

 

We were up 2-1 in AL Championship Series with 2 games left up in Fenway. What more could you want?

 

It was an incredible season as far as I was concerned. It's a credit to Sox organization to become competitive again so quickly.

 

We complain too much.

 

My only point was that it was a fairly young team in 2018 with home grown talent and if Bogey, and Raffy aren’t retained 2023 will be pretty much a whole new team in a few short years.

[moonslav59]

My only point was that it was a fairly young team in 2018 with home grown talent and if Bogey, and Raffy aren’t retained 2023 will be pretty much a whole new team in a few short years.

 

On paper, the window should have lasted at least through 2019.

 

Thing going wrong just kept piling up.

 

Key 2018 players like Eovaldi, Pearce and Nunez lost their magic.

Price and Sale combined for just 249 innings.

Porcello adding a run to his ERA.

No Kimbrel, Kelly and others.

 

The window shut earlier than hoped or expected, but man felt a downturn was coming, eventually.

[Bellhorn04]

My only point was that it was a fairly young team in 2018 with home grown talent and if Bogey, and Raffy aren’t retained 2023 will be pretty much a whole new team in a few short years.

 

You can't keep great teams together long. The veterans get old quick and the young guys get expensive quick.

[mvp 78]

It will be great to have millions of dollars to spend, but my question is how did we get to this point. Just a few years ago the Red Sox were coming off a WS Championship with a fairly young outfield, a fairly young left side of the IF, and if Boggey, and Raffy aren’t retained that will be pretty much a whole makeover of the team in 2023.

 

Dombrowski decided to sign Eovaldi and a broken down Sale rather than re-sign Mookie. OR... they just didn't want to spend 300M+ on Mookie. JBJ left because he wanted to test the FA waters and the new GM didn't feel like he needed to keep JBJ around at that point. The new GM also determined that the young LFer was getting too expensive for his production. He wanted to spread the money out a little more.

[mvp 78]

You can't keep great teams together long. The veterans get old quick and the young guys get expensive quick.

 

You can see this as the Astros young core has moved on from HOU.

[mvp 78]

You can see this as the Astros young core has moved on from HOU.

 

Who do the Jays retain? Do they build the team around Vlad Jr and Bichette 2? Would they be able to even keep both?

[moonslav59]

You can see this as the Astros young core has moved on from HOU.

 

They do have some fine young talent coming up, but yes, they let some very key stars go, in the name of not spending more than they want or need to spend.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They do have some fine young talent coming up, but yes, they let some very key stars go, in the name of not spending more than they want or need to spend.

 

It never seemed like Houston would be able to afford to keep Springer or Correa.

 

But after 50 years of being a Red Sox fan, it never seemed like Boston wouldn't be able to afford to keep its best player...

[mvp 78]

It never seemed like Houston would be able to afford to keep Springer or Correa.

 

But after 50 years of being a Red Sox fan, it never seemed like Boston wouldn't be able to afford to keep its best player...

 

They could have afforded Mookie. They didn't like the sticker price.

[Bellhorn04]

They could have afforded Mookie. They didn't like the sticker price.

 

Yes, the word "afford" is subject to interpretation.

[moonslav59]

It never seemed like Houston would be able to afford to keep Springer or Correa.

 

But after 50 years of being a Red Sox fan, it never seemed like Boston wouldn't be able to afford to keep its best player...

 

They spent close to $190M, last year and have a lot of fan attendance and high TV viewership numbers for a market populated by many people who follow other teams.

 

They can spend big, like the Sox can. They are paying ALtuve $29M per and Verlander $25M.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Some Red Sox news: Maverick Carter has been added to the Red Sox Foundation’s Board of Directors.

[mvp 78]

@NBCSEdgeBB

Report: Correa asking for $330-350 million

 

Betts 37.2 fWAR prior to signing his deal.

 

Correa has 25.1 fWAR.

 

Honestly, I'm not sure I'd give him $250M.

[moonslav59]

@NBCSEdgeBB

Report: Correa asking for $330-350 million

 

Betts 37.2 fWAR prior to signing his deal.

 

Correa has 25.1 fWAR.

 

Honestly, I'm not sure I'd give him $250M.

 

I seriously doubt Bloom & Co. see Correa as the one to splurge on.

[Bellhorn04]

@NBCSEdgeBB

Report: Correa asking for $330-350 million

 

Betts 37.2 fWAR prior to signing his deal.

 

Correa has 25.1 fWAR.

 

Honestly, I'm not sure I'd give him $250M.

 

Seager got $325 mill, so that might be the proper comp now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They spent close to $190M, last year and have a lot of fan attendance and high TV viewership numbers for a market populated by many people who follow other teams.

 

They can spend big, like the Sox can. They are paying ALtuve $29M per and Verlander $25M.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Houston seems like a franchise that picks and chooses which stars to pay to stay (cue Dombro: "We can't keep them all.").

 

They did well to lock up Bregman when he was young at an affordable rate. But Cole was immediately wearing a different cap in the presser after the '19 Series, and Correa also seemed to know that he would go, after laughing at the Astros' offer that was half what he was seeking. Was Beltran in his prime ever offered fair market value?

 

Big and short on Verlander looks like a good approach for savvy clubs...