The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[moonslav59]

Right, the big question with Devers is how much money for a great hitter/bad defender.

 

I'd like to say whatever it takes, but there is a limit.

 

I'm not good at setting contractual estimates.

 

Pay the kid.

[notin]

I'd like to say whatever it takes, but there is a limit.

 

I'm not good at setting contractual estimates.

 

Pay the kid.

 

Despite the differences in defense, the contract Nolan Arenado (8yrs / $260mill) received might be the baseline. Of course, Arenado has been worth significantly more WAR than Devers...

[moonslav59]

Right, the big question with Devers is how much money for a great hitter/bad defender.

 

Let's say he'll get $11M arb, this year and $21M, next year: that's $32M/2. I'd add that to $268M/10 and make it an even $300M/12 as the top offer.

 

We could probably get him to go for an 8-9 year deal.

[notin]

MLBTR free agent contest is up.

 

For the Sox, I predicted ERod, Jon Gray, Graveman, Eduardo Escobar and Jon Villar. I do not expect them to sign all five, but I do expect them to fill some of those holes via free agency...

[moonslav59]

MLBTR free agent contest is up.

 

For the Sox, I predicted ERod, Jon Gray, Graveman, Eduardo Escobar and Jon Villar. I do not expect them to sign all five, but I do expect them to fill some of those holes via free agency...

 

So you went with MVP's EE. Interesting.

 

I'm going to say...

 

ERod

S Matz

Graveman

Iggy

 

My second choice might be...

Semien (not sure we trade Bogey, even if we add him)

Matz

Graveman

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bogaerts is a better defender than Devers.

 

FanGraphs has him at +39.8 RAR for his career.

 

Devers is at -10.3.

 

But in both cases I look at total WAR, myself. Both of them are such good hitters that they much more than compensate for their defense.

 

It makes sense to look at total WAR, because the metric is intended to value players holistically. But breaking it down by components is also revealing.

 

For example, I was shocked to see that Freddie Freeman has been a negative DWAR the past 11 years in a row; by definition, every season of Freeman's career playing first base has been worse than what could be expected of an average replacement-level player. Hard pass.

[notin]

It makes sense to look at total WAR, because the metric is intended to value players holistically. But breaking it down by components is also revealing.

 

For example, I was shocked to see that Freddie Freeman has been a negative DWAR the past 11 years in a row; by definition, every season of Freeman's career playing first base has been worse than what could be expected of an average replacement-level player. Hard pass.

 

Yeah, he's horrible. I mean, only one MVP award...

[notin]

So you went with MVP's EE. Interesting.

 

I'm going to say...

 

ERod

S Matz

Graveman

Iggy

 

My second choice might be...

Semien (not sure we trade Bogey, even if we add him)

Matz

Graveman

 

I went wth the cheap and versatile infielder types, much like Bloom did last year.

 

I am also operating on the assumption that Taylor and Iglesias accept their QO's and will therefore be unavailable...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yeah, he's horrible. I mean, only one MVP award...

 

Yeah, why wouldn't Red Sox fans who watched a below-average defensive team want to degrade the D even more with a bad first baseman? As long as he can bash, we'll just keep hoping our hitters will out-hit even more crappy fielding next year.

[moonslav59]

I went wth the cheap and versatile infielder types, much like Bloom did last year.

 

I am also operating on the assumption that Taylor and Iglesias accept their QO's and will therefore be unavailable...

 

My Iggy is the SS/2Bman.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, why wouldn't Red Sox fans who watched a below-average defensive team want to degrade the D even more with a bad first baseman? As long as he can bash, we'll just keep hoping our hitters will out-hit even more crappy fielding next year.

 

Freeman may be bad, but he's likely an upgrade over Dalbec, on D.

 

Not that I want to sign any 1Bman/DH types, this year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Freeman may be bad, but he's likely an upgrade over Dalbec, on D.

 

Not that I want to sign any 1Bman/DH types, this year.

 

Bloom's not going to blow half a kajillion or whatever it will take to sign Freeman, when he could likely ink Schwarber for much less to keep first warm for a year before Casas takes over, and then Kyle slots into DH after JD leaves. In that scenario, Dalbec will be traded in the meantime (hopefully for a pitching prospect).

[mvp 78]

Yeah, why wouldn't Red Sox fans who watched a below-average defensive team want to degrade the D even more with a bad first baseman? As long as he can bash, we'll just keep hoping our hitters will out-hit even more crappy fielding next year.

 

Freeman's negative dWAR is still higher than the guys we had at 1b in 2021.

[notin]

My Iggy is the SS/2Bman.

 

He’s not in the free agent prediction contest, which is limited to the top 50…

[notin]

Bloom's not going to blow half a kajillion or whatever it will take to sign Freeman, when he could likely ink Schwarber for much less to keep first warm for a year before Casas takes over, and then Kyle slots into DH after JD leaves. In that scenario, Dalbec will be traded in the meantime (hopefully for a pitching prospect).

 

Or… Kyle to LF, Verdugo to CF, Hernandez to 2b, and Dalbec stays at 1b, where he eventually pairs with Casas…

[notin]

Yeah, why wouldn't Red Sox fans who watched a below-average defensive team want to degrade the D even more with a bad first baseman? As long as he can bash, we'll just keep hoping our hitters will out-hit even more crappy fielding next year.

 

Freeman isn’t a step down from Dalbec defensively. Probably not over Casas either…

[moonslav59]

Or… Kyle to LF, Verdugo to CF, Hernandez to 2b, and Dalbec stays at 1b, where he eventually pairs with Casas…

 

Or, Kyle to LF, Verdugo to RF, Kike stays in CF and Iggy pairs with Arroyo at 2B and Casas with Dalbec at 1B. (Renfroe is the expensive 4th OF'er or is traded for a RP'er.)

[moonslav59]

Let's not forget that Devers just turned 25 and will be 25 all next season.

He's has more PAs at 3B than anyone else since 2019.

He's 2-3 years from the meat of prime.

His average 162 game numbers since 2019 (ages 22-24):

.290 36 119 (86 xbh)

.886 OPS

Mookie (22-24): .292 26 104 (77 xbh and .842 OPS)

Bogey (22-24): .296 13 81 (52 xbh and .776 OPS)

 

Devers is the one we can't let get away!

 

Devers Forevers!

[Bellhorn04]

fangraphs has +130.2 career RAR (+46.5 in 2021).

 

BR has +106 career and +35 in 2021.

 

You are looking at DEF not RAR on fangraphs.

 

I thought I was looking at DEF RAR.

[mvp 78]

@JonHeyman

Red Sox have made a multiyear offer to Eduardo Rodriguez in addition to the $18.4M qualifying offer

[moonslav59]

I thought I was looking at DEF RAR.

 

Okay. I never heard it called DEF RAR, but there is a stat called RAR and it's not about only D.

[moonslav59]

@JonHeyman

Red Sox have made a multiyear offer to Eduardo Rodriguez in addition to the $18.4M qualifying offer

 

What would you guess?

 

$17M x 5?

 

$19M x 4?

[Bellhorn04]

Okay. I never heard it called DEF RAR, but there is a stat called RAR and it's not about only D.

 

I realize that. They compute RAR for the different categories and total them, then convert to wins.

[moonslav59]

I realize that. They compute RAR for the different categories and total them, then convert to wins.

 

No doubt, fangraphs is not friendly to Devers' D. The DRS is not nice to both Devers and Bogey.

 

B-R has Bogey at +0.1 dWAR since 2016 and +0.4 since 2018, so they see him as improving, despite his best season being 2015 (+0.7).

 

B-R seems a little kinder to Devers than fangraphs, but they still have him negative, as he should be:

-2.2 dWAR since 2017

-1.2 since 2019, including a 0.0 year in '19.

He appears to be getting worse since 2019.

 

[moonslav59]

"Boss! Dee plane! Dee plane!"

 

Sign Schwarber to play LF.

Sign Bryant to play 3B.

Sign Semien to play SS.

Move Bogey to 2B.

Move Devers to 1B.

Trade Renfroe, Dalbec & Casas for pitching.

 

The 2022 Line-Up:

1. Semien SS

2. Devers 1B

3. Bryant 3B

4. Bogey 2B

5. Schwarber LF

6. JD DH

7. Kike CF

8. Verdugo RF

9. Vaz C

[Bellhorn04]

"Boss! Dee plane! Dee plane!"

 

Sign Schwarber to play LF.

Sign Bryant to play 3B.

Sign Semien to play SS.

Move Bogey to 2B.

Move Devers to 1B.

Trade Renfroe, Dalbec & Casas for pitching.

 

The 2022 Line-Up:

1. Semien SS

2. Devers 1B

3. Bryant 3B

4. Bogey 2B

5. Schwarber LF

6. JD DH

7. Kike CF

8. Verdugo RF

9. Vaz C

 

Not even Dombrowski would.

[moonslav59]

Not even Dombrowski would.

 

He would on...

 

Fantasy Island!

[mvp 78]

He would on...

 

Fantasy Island!

 

Keep your wet dreams there.

[moonslav59]

Keep your wet dreams there.

 

They are Dombo's wet dreams.

 

Mine would involve Scherzer, Montas and Graveman.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Freeman isn’t a step down from Dalbec defensively. Probably not over Casas either…

 

Freeman isn't a step in the right direction, either. He doesn't improve the defense, which is the Sox' biggest weakness besides pitching -- though metrics have shown the latter was worse because of the defense.

 

Wouldn't it be better to use the money it would take to sign Freeman (who at least one poster covets) and spread it around to upgrade actual areas that are priorities, like on the mound?