The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[notin]

Konerko had only 2 seasons that were better than France's 2021 and both of those were less than 10% better than France's 2021.

 

France has had one full season.

 

And even then, his fWAR is skewed because of multiple defensive positions.

 

As valuable than Konerko? Ok, I can accept that.

 

Similar to Konerko? No. Not yet…

[mvp 78]

@JeffPassan

BREAKING: Star third baseman José Ramirez and the Cleveland Guardians are in agreement on a five-year, $124M contract extension, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Deal includes full no-trade clause. With this year and pickup of a 2023 option, Ramirez is guaranteed $150M.

 

Bloom, time to strike on Xander and Raffy...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

@JeffPassan

BREAKING: Star third baseman José Ramirez and the Cleveland Guardians are in agreement on a five-year, $124M contract extension, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Deal includes full no-trade clause. With this year and pickup of a 2023 option, Ramirez is guaranteed $150M.

 

Bloom, time to strike on Xander and Raffy...

 

Trevor Story money? Would Raffy sign for $25M AAV through age 30? Then he could sign another contract for the new market rate? Probably not.

[Bellhorn04]

Trevor Story money? Would Raffy sign for $25M AAV through age 30? Then he could sign another contract for the new market rate? Probably not.

 

They should offer Bogey and Raffy the ever-delightful early opt-outs.

[moonslav59]

Trevor Story money? Would Raffy sign for $25M AAV through age 30? Then he could sign another contract for the new market rate? Probably not.

 

He might take $27M x whatever, but he'd get more, if he was a FA, right now.

[harmony]

France has had one full season.

 

And even then, his fWAR is skewed because of multiple defensive positions.

 

As valuable than Konerko? Ok, I can accept that.

 

Similar to Konerko? No. Not yet…

FWIW in 2021 Ty France played 915 of his 1,107.1 innings in the field at first base, which skewed his fWAR downward because of the position adjustment:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/explaining-win-values-part-three/

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He might take $27M x whatever, but he'd get more, if he was a FA, right now.

 

I was hoping smilin' Raffy would be the kinda guy happily rich at a young stage -- like Acuna, Bregman, Wander etc -- and not aspire to be a Betts oligarch. Most who sign big extensions before free agency are protecting their futures against a career-altering injury.

 

And then Devers had to go and mash all through the playoffs with one arm.

[moonslav59]

I was hoping smilin' Raffy would be the kinda guy happily rich at a young stage -- like Acuna, Bregman, Wander etc -- and not aspire to be a Betts oligarch. Most who sign big extensions before free agency are protecting their futures against a career-altering injury.

 

And then Devers had to go and mash all through the playoffs with one arm.

 

This kid is worth the hefty and long investment.

 

DEVERS FOREVERS!

 

[Bellhorn04]

This kid is worth the hefty and long investment.

 

DEVERS FOREVERS!

 

 

I do think we overrate him a bit, considering that he's pretty close to a 1B/DH profile.

[moonslav59]

I do think we overrate him a bit, considering that he's pretty close to a 1B/DH profile.

 

Then pay him like the highest paid 1B/DH of all time.

[Bellhorn04]

Then pay him like the highest paid 1B/DH of all time.

 

Based on his likability?

 

Or the chances that he's significantly better than Ortiz and JDM?

[moonslav59]

Based on his likability?

 

Or the chances that he's significantly better than Ortiz and JDM?

 

His age and projections.

 

Yes, I'd pay him more than JD, even with inflation.

 

Papi is another story and never was near the highest paid 1B/DH in MLB.

[notin]

Based on his likability?

 

Or the chances that he's significantly better than Ortiz and JDM?

 

Since when is pay commensurate with all time ranking?

 

It’s not like Lindor and Seager are the two greatest shortstops of all time. Possibly not even the two best active shortstops…

[Bellhorn04]

Since when is pay commensurate with all time ranking?

 

It’s not like Lindor and Seager are the two greatest shortstops of all time. Possibly not even the two best active shortstops…

 

I realize that, but we're not talking about nutjob contracts, we're talking about how much we should offer Devers.

[notin]

I realize that, but we're not talking about nutjob contracts, we're talking about how much we should offer Devers.

 

Enough to make him stay…

[Bellhorn04]

Enough to make him stay…

 

That's what many said about Mookie.

[moonslav59]

Enough to make him stay…

 

Which is likely $27M+ a year.

[notin]

That's what many said about Mookie.

 

And how did that turn out?

[moonslav59]

And how did that turn out?

 

We are now projected 24th in RF team fWAR rankings.

[Bellhorn04]

And how did that turn out?

 

Swell, as Shaughnessy would say (ripping off Clint Eastwood).

 

Actually, it might turn out well, or it might not.

 

Still 11 years to run on Mookie's deal.

[Kimmi]

Swell, as Shaughnessy would say (ripping off Clint Eastwood).

 

Actually, it might turn out well, or it might not.

 

Still 11 years to run on Mookie's deal.

 

Yikes. That's scary to think about.

 

I'd offer Devers a 6-year deal right now for $160M, with an opt out after the 4th year. That would be a significant raise for Devers this year. It would also give him a higher AAV than Ramirez, and Ramirez is arguably the better overall player. Ramirez is older, but the opt out would give Devers an opportunity for another big contract.

[moonslav59]

Yikes. That's scary to think about.

 

I'd offer Devers a 6-year deal right now for $160M, with an opt out after the 4th year. That would be a significant raise for Devers this year. It would also give him a higher AAV than Ramirez, and Ramirez is arguably the better overall player. Ramirez is older, but the opt out would give Devers an opportunity for another big contract.

 

That Ramirez deal was a clear team-friendly deal. Maybe Devers loves Boston that much, but most players seek the most money.

 

IMO, offering $160M/6 would not be accepted. The guy is only 25 and will be all season. If the 6 years is an extension, we'd have him for 8 years, but if it's a replacement deal, 6 years brings him to age 30.

 

I'm not sure why he'd look at age 30 as a better way to make more money. My guess is, he'd want a very long deal with an opt out or two.

 

Now, the money. If the $160/6 replaces 2 arb years, its close to being enough, as he might make $30M in his last 2 arbs, combined. That leaves $130M/4 for the rest. If you are talking extension after the arb years, then he'd laugh at $160M/6 in a FA year going into an age 27 season.

 

IMO, if he's feeling "team friendly," he might think this is the minimum he'd take:

 

$250M/8, and even that might include a mildly front- ended contract with an opt out.

Edited April 7, 2022 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

Yikes. That's scary to think about.

 

I'd offer Devers a 6-year deal right now for $160M, with an opt out after the 4th year. That would be a significant raise for Devers this year. It would also give him a higher AAV than Ramirez, and Ramirez is arguably the better overall player. Ramirez is older, but the opt out would give Devers an opportunity for another big contract.

 

I've been away for personal reasons but have read the postings from time to time. I am against granting very long contracts, especially for pitchers and players in their prime. Mookie's contract being an example of that kind. In Raffie's case, at such a young age, one can wonder what very long term means. I might go to 8 years with an earlier opt out although, given his body type, he may well wind up as primarily a DH over the contract period.

[moonslav59]

I've been away for personal reasons but have read the postings from time to time. I am against granting very long contracts, especially for pitchers and players in their prime. Mookie's contract being an example of that kind. In Raffie's case, at such a young age, one can wonder what very long term means. I might go to 8 years with an earlier opt out although, given his body type, he may well wind up as primarily a DH over the contract period.

 

I think Devers is nimble enough to be a fine 1Bman. He may end up at DH after age 35-36, IMO.

 

If he gains weight, all bets are off.

[moonslav59]

I've been away for personal reasons but have read the postings from time to time. I am against granting very long contracts, especially for pitchers and players in their prime. Mookie's contract being an example of that kind. In Raffie's case, at such a young age, one can wonder what very long term means. I might go to 8 years with an earlier opt out although, given his body type, he may well wind up as primarily a DH over the contract period.

 

Welcome back. You were sorely missed.

 

I hope all is well.

[oldtimer]

Welcome back. You were sorely missed.

 

I hope all is well.

Thanks for the support. With the war and the loss of a close friend, I was quite sad. That said, Trevor Story was brought in after I took a hiatus. I am supportive of that move, but must admit to being skeptical of JBJ being our right fielder and at the money he will get. I am also disappointed that we didn't make a stronger play for pitching. I guess we shall see if Bloom's moves stand the test of time.

[mvp 78]

I think Devers is nimble enough to be a fine 1Bman. He may end up at DH after age 35-36, IMO.

 

If he gains weight, all bets are off.

 

Why would you put him at 1b if you already have Casas ready to be the long term 1b?

[notin]

I think Devers is nimble enough to be a fine 1Bman. He may end up at DH after age 35-36, IMO.

 

If he gains weight, all bets are off.

 

I’m not so sure why paying a player who might end up solely as a DH is some sort of detrimental thing.

 

If you get 8 more years of elite offense and even sun-par defense, west the big deal?

 

And DH is a legitimate position. Not a dumping ground for one dimensional players and not a place to “rest” regular players. It’s a chance to enhance your offensive output. An expensive DH is not necessarily a bad thing.

 

Pay Devers. Enjoy the ride. If he eventually settled in to a DH role, enjoy having an elite DH. Again…

[moonslav59]

Why would you put him at 1b if you already have Casas ready to be the long term 1b?

 

I wouldn't. I'd keep him at 3B. My point was that, if for some reason, 1B is where he belongs, I don't view Casas as a lock to own the 1B position for the next 10-12 years.

 

Nobody on our roster "blocks" Devers.

 

If worse comes to worse, one can play LF or we trade Casas.

 

If One ends up DH, it wouldn't be terrible. I see Devers as being a very good defensive 1Bman, if he ends up there.

[moonslav59]

I’m not so sure why paying a player who might end up solely as a DH is some sort of detrimental thing.

 

If you get 8 more years of elite offense and even sun-par defense, west the big deal?

 

And DH is a legitimate position. Not a dumping ground for one dimensional players and not a place to “rest” regular players. It’s a chance to enhance your offensive output. An expensive DH is not necessarily a bad thing.

 

Pay Devers. Enjoy the ride. If he eventually settled in to a DH role, enjoy having an elite DH. Again…

 

I'm not against the idea of him eventually being the DH, but I just don't see it happening until after age 34-35. He's got quick reflexes. His only real defensive weakness is his arm accuracy. He can be a plus defensive 1Bman in not time, at all. if needed.