The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[mvp 78]

harmony, you know these projections are always very conservative.

 

What do the project Castillo, Montas, Bassit and Maneae to be?

 

Those 4 would project out to Jake Fraley if Jake Fraley was a pitcher.

[notin]

Isn't this exactly what happened when Boston traded Mookie... and LA traded for Mookie? The point is, it can happen -- again.

 

I'm not torn about absorbing veteran deadweight if it means adding a potential number one starting pitcher. Castillo has been slightly inconsistent (Pedro was a bad comp on my part, because he was already the best pitcher in the NL when the Sox got him), but I'd still give up a lot for him -- even a promising pitcher...

 

... just not a guy who has shown flashes of greatness himself, with "limited" stuff that still has big leaguers describing him as "a right-handed Chris Sale." Trading the Red Sox' best young MLB pitcher defeats the purpose of adding more good pitching to a staff in dire need of depth.

 

No.

 

What happened was Boston trade one half of their worst contract in that deal. Had LA taken the entire Price cntract, we probably don't get Verdugo.

 

If Cincinnti is looking for a better return for Castillo - and they probsbly are - coupling him with Moustakas is the worst case. If they just want to offload a lot of money, then it gets more possible...

[notin]

Those 4 would project out to Jake Fraley if Jake Fraley was a pitcher.

 

They already combine to be a less productive hitter than Fraley...

[mvp 78]

Logged into Baseball Ref.

 

Jarren Duran's page:

 

Similar Batters

1. Jake Fraley (988.1)

[mvp 78]

BTV accepted Duran and Groome for Fraley and France

[harmony]

BTV accepted Duran and Groome for Fraley and France

FWIW this year 27-year-old Ty France would have placed fourth among Red Sox hitters in fWAR (ahead of J.D. Martinez, Alex Verdugo and a full season of Kyle Schwarber). France remains prearbitration next year.

[notin]

BTV accepted Duran and Groome for Fraley and France

 

 

And which of them will pitch for Boston next year?

[harmony]

harmony, you know these projections are always very conservative.

 

What do the project Castillo, Montas, Bassit and Maneae to be?

Steamer projects 2022 fWAR of 3.9 for Luis Castillo, 3.1 for Sean Manaea, 3.1 for Frankie Montas and 2.8 for Chris Bassitt.

[moonslav59]

Steamer projects 2022 fWAR of 3.9 for Luis Castillo, 3.1 for Sean Manaea, 3.1 for Frankie Montas and 2.8 for Chris Bassitt.

 

Yes, very low projections for everyone, right?

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, very low projections for everyone, right?

 

I would guess that the projections are well below the player's potential, but in order to be realistic they have to factor in the risks of injury and underperformance.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, very low projections for everyone, right?

 

A's pitchers VERY rarely produce after being dealt. I do not think Manaea is that good. Montas' highest IP prior to 21 was 96. He crossed 185 innings in 21. Big concern there. Bassitt is more of a control guy who benefits from being in Oakland in terms of low HR rate. I really like Castillo, but I think the Reds will ask for the moon for him as they should.

[moonslav59]

I would guess that the projections are well below the player's potential, but in order to be realistic they have to factor in the risks of injury and underperformance.

 

Yes. I get the reason.

 

It's funny how harmony uses projected WAR for Sox players and past WAR for M's players like France.

[harmony]

Yes, very low projections for everyone, right?

Below each player's ceiling but above each player's floor.

[harmony]

Yes. I get the reason.

 

It's funny how harmony uses projected WAR for Sox players and past WAR for M's players like France.

According to Steamer's 2022 fWAR projections, Ty France would again rank fourth among Red Sox hitters:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ty-france/17982/stats?position=1B

[Nick]

The left side of the infield needs to be better. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts and third baseman Rafael Devers combined for negative-18 Defensive Runs Saved.

 

Bogaerts (-5) finished 16th out of 21 qualified major league shortstop. Devers (-13) ranked last among 10 qualified third basemen.

 

Do we really want to give Xander a raise and the richest contract in Sox history to Devers? Just asking.

[moonslav59]

According to Steamer's 2022 fWAR projections, Ty France would again rank fourth among Red Sox hitters:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ty-france/17982/stats?position=1B

 

That's beside my point.

 

You pick and choose between 2 numbers- whichever makes the Sox look worse of the M's look better.

[moonslav59]

The left side of the infield needs to be better. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts and third baseman Rafael Devers combined for negative-18 Defensive Runs Saved.

 

Bogaerts (-5) finished 16th out of 21 qualified major league shortstop. Devers (-13) ranked last among 10 qualified third basemen.

 

Do we really want to give Xander a raise and the richest contract in Sox history to Devers? Just asking.

 

No and Yes.

 

No big enough raise to Bogey that keeps him here.

 

Yes, extend Devers. Devers Forevers.

[harmony]

That's beside my point.

 

You pick and choose between 2 numbers- whichever makes the Sox look worse of the M's look better.

Either number makes the point.

 

That's the point.

 

Any poster who cherry picks should expect to be called out.

[Larry Cook]

Over the mountains article on a potential trade between us and the Marlins due to our plethora of hitters in the pipeline and the Marlins plethora of arms in the pipeline, made me think maybe we should be stealing the Marlins minor league pitching coaches, since ours can not develop arms!

[notin]

According to Steamer's 2022 fWAR projections, Ty France would again rank fourth among Red Sox hitters:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ty-france/17982/stats?position=1B

 

Steamer is the Magic 8 Ball of the MLB projection world…

[moonslav59]

Either number makes the point.

 

That's the point.

 

Any poster who cherry picks should expect to be called out.

 

In this case, they both would place him 4th, but that was not the point.

 

You often use past WAR when you like somebody and projected WAR when you don't or are trying to be a contrarian to someone pumping up a Sox player.

 

It's the optics.

[notin]

Baseball Trade Values may deem a proposed trade a fair deal but that does not mean the package is the best the Cincinnati Reds would receive for two years of a reasonably priced top-tier starter in Luis Castillo.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

 

A team will likely need to overpay in a trade for the nearly 29-year-old righthander.

 

Really, Major Obvious? I assume this type of work has merited a promotion.

 

In other news, trade proposals made on internet forums are not legally binding for MLB GMs...

[Bellhorn04]

The left side of the infield needs to be better. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts and third baseman Rafael Devers combined for negative-18 Defensive Runs Saved.

 

Bogaerts (-5) finished 16th out of 21 qualified major league shortstop. Devers (-13) ranked last among 10 qualified third basemen.

 

Do we really want to give Xander a raise and the richest contract in Sox history to Devers? Just asking.

 

No and Yes.

 

No big enough raise to Bogey that keeps him here.

 

Yes, extend Devers. Devers Forevers.

 

Bogaerts is a better defender than Devers.

 

FanGraphs has him at +39.8 RAR for his career.

 

Devers is at -10.3.

 

But in both cases I look at total WAR, myself. Both of them are such good hitters that they much more than compensate for their defense.

[notin]

So far the only players connected to the Red Sox this early in the offseason are 1B/DH/LF Kyle Schwarber and 3B/SS/RF Seiya Suzuki. Two guys who play six positions the Sox don't need help at...

[moonslav59]

Bogaerts is a better defender than Devers.

 

FanGraphs has him at +39.8 RAR for his career.

 

Devers is at -10.3.

 

 

-10.3 RAR?

 

1. Devers is much younger and can improve more than Bogey can or will.

1B. Devers is still years from prime. Extending Bogey will bring him past prime.

2. Devers has shown long stretches of being a plus defender. IMO, Bogey has not.

3. SS defense is way more important than 3B defense, so if I have to choose one to improve- it's SS.

 

As for this...

But in both cases I look at total WAR, myself. Both of them are such good hitters that they much more than compensate for their defense.

 

Of course Bogey ius an over plus, and by a lot. I have never even hinted otherwise.

 

I admit by SS defense bias is borderline obsessive, but that's not going to change, soon.

 

Looking at just D, I'd rather have Devers at 3B than Bogey at SS.

 

Looking at projected overall WAR over the length of an an extension, I'll take Devers, and IMO, it's not even close.

[moonslav59]

So far the only players connected to the Red Sox this early in the offseason are 1B/DH/LF Kyle Schwarber and 3B/SS/RF Seiya Suzuki. Two guys who play six positions the Sox don't need help at...

 

It seems several posters are looking at players who play filled positions, too.

[Bellhorn04]

-10.3 RAR?

 

1. Devers is much younger and can improve more than Bogey can or will.

1B. Devers is still years from prime. Extending Bogey will bring him past prime.

2. Devers has shown long stretches of being a plus defender. IMO, Bogey has not.

3. SS defense is way more important than 3B defense, so if I have to choose one to improve- it's SS.

 

As for this...

But in both cases I look at total WAR, myself. Both of them are such good hitters that they much more than compensate for their defense.

 

Of course Bogey ius an over plus, and by a lot. I have never even hinted otherwise.

 

I admit by SS defense bias is borderline obsessive, but that's not going to change, soon.

 

Looking at just D, I'd rather have Devers at 3B than Bogey at SS.

 

Looking at projected overall WAR over the length of an an extension, I'll take Devers, and IMO, it's not even close.

 

Right, the big question with Devers is how much money for a great hitter/bad defender.

[Bellhorn04]

-10.3 RAR?

 

Yes.

[moonslav59]

Yes.

 

fangraphs has +130.2 career RAR (+46.5 in 2021).

 

BR has +106 career and +35 in 2021.

 

You are looking at DEF not RAR on fangraphs.

 

Here are some defensive numbers from fangraphs:

 

Bogey:

-55 DRS in 9140 innings

+0.3 UZR/150

 

Devers

-38 DRZ in 4651 innings

-4.3 UZR/150

 

Both of these numbers show Bogey is a better defender, but he plays SS.

 

Here's a comparative look by position:

 

SS (36 SS's with 1,000 innings at SS 2019-2021)

UZR/150 #16 Bogey (right in the middle)

DRS T#33 Bogey

 

3B (32 3Bmen with 1,000+ innings from '19-'21

UZR/150 #26 Devers

DRS #32 Devers

 

To me, I'd give Devers another year to improve at 3B. Hopefully, he'll work on it over the summer.

 

We should also know more about Dalbec and Casas at 1B, and if moving Devers there makes any sense.

 

I don't like the idea of putting Devers in LF. I might prefer moving Dalbec, but trading him might make more sense.

 

Edited November 10, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

So far the only players connected to the Red Sox this early in the offseason are 1B/DH/LF Kyle Schwarber and 3B/SS/RF Seiya Suzuki. Two guys who play six positions the Sox don't need help at...

 

There's been general reports about the Sox looking into the SS market (Correa and Semien). I don't really see that happening though.

 

Also, Bloom seems to be good at keeping things under wraps. I can't think of too many deals that we knew about ahead of time. Kiké?