Wild Card GAME

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Rather than start a separate thread, here is my Sox postseason 26 player roster: 13 position players, 13 pitchers.

 

Verdugo

Kike

Renfroe

Devers

Bogaerts

Arroyo

Dalbec

Vazquez

Schwarber

Plawecki

Duran

Shaw

JDM (or Santana if JDM can't play)

 

Eovaldi

Sale

ERod

Pivetta

Houck

Whitlock

Brasier

Robles

Sawamura

Hernandez

Barnes

Ottavino

Perez

 

If JD is lame, I can see adding a middle infielder who won't trip over the bag and can catch the ball. I notice Richards is off your pitcher list; I'd also add anyone else who Cora is already planning to keep off the mound -- like Darwinzon, Barnes or Otto.

 

I'm referring entirely to the one-game WC roster.

[moonslav59]

If JD is lame, I can see adding a middle infielder who won't trip over the bag and can catch the ball. I notice Richards is off your pitcher list; I'd also add anyone else who Cora is already planning to keep off the mound -- like Darwinzon, Barnes or Otto.

 

Who do you replace them with?

 

Bazardo, Valdez and Davis? (Are they all healthy?)

 

Too bad we lost Rios. He did okay.

[mvp 78]

If JD is lame, I can see adding a middle infielder who won't trip over the bag and can catch the ball. I notice Richards is off your pitcher list; I'd also add anyone else who Cora is already planning to keep off the mound -- like Darwinzon, Barnes or Otto.

 

I'm referring entirely to the one-game WC roster.

 

I think he'd still through Darwinzon out there. Maybe Barnes too.

[mvp 78]

With a day off, one game, day off, 2 games, day off, 2 games, day off, one game, I'm not sure why 13 pitchers are needed, but my guess is that is what will happen.

 

Is Davis still on the IL? I'd prefer him to Perez.

 

Is Iggy ineligible? Even with an injury to someone?

 

Iggy is ineligible no matter what.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Who do you replace them with?

 

Bazardo, Valdez and Davis? (Are they all healthy?)

 

Too bad we lost Rios. He did okay.

 

What happened to Davis? He got the win Saturday.

[mvp 78]

Who do you replace them with?

 

Bazardo, Valdez and Davis? (Are they all healthy?)

 

Too bad we lost Rios. He did okay.

 

Davis pitched on Saturday.

[moonslav59]

Iggy is ineligible no matter what.

 

We missed by what 2 days? I think we got him on Sept 1 or 2nd, right?

 

What a shame!

[Nick]

What happened to Davis? He got the win Saturday.

 

He got the win by giving up runs so offense can bail him out and the he got the win.

 

This is why a win for a reliever is not very good indicator of how he pitched.

 

Say you give a grand slam in a bottom of an inning to let the other team tie it. Then your offense scores runs at the top. You get the win.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We missed by what 2 days? I think we got him on Sept 1 or 2nd, right?

 

What a shame!

 

Ya, if the Yanks lose, their fans will say they were missing their best hitter, batting champion DJ. Meanwhile, the Red Sox will actually be missing their best hitter -- Iglesias, who hit .356 this month.

[Maxbialystock]

With a day off, one game, day off, 2 games, day off, 2 games, day off, one game, I'm not sure why 13 pitchers are needed, but my guess is that is what will happen.

 

Is Davis still on the IL? I'd prefer him to Perez.

 

Is Iggy ineligible? Even with an injury to someone?

 

Taylor, a lefty, is out. So I picked Perez because he is a lefty with a .669 OPS against vs. lefties.

 

I agree with someone that 13 pitchers is vast overkill for one game, but the Sox non-pitchers right now are uninspiring. Santana is there because I couldn't think of anyone else.

 

I can't believe you didn't know about Iggy.

[moonslav59]

What happened to Davis? He got the win Saturday.

 

I was asking about health not telling.

 

Oh, and I meant to ask about Taylor.

 

I was wondering why Davis would be left off Max's list when he's done better than 4-5 pitchers on the list.

 

Bazardo would be a big reach.

 

Vaaldez had that big implosion game (or two) that totally messed up his numbers, but he's been AWOL since Sep 5th. I doubt he's an option.

 

I'd go with these starters- in this order of confidence:

 

1) Eovaldi

2) ERod

3) Houck (could be used as a closer)

4) Sale

5) Pivetta (could be used in relief)

 

Pen (in order of confidence in high leverage)

Note: the pen is the one area I give serious credence to the recency bias effect.

 

1) Whitlock (Houck, if not starting)

2) Brasier

3) Robles

4) Sawamura

5) Davis

6) Ottavino

7) DHern

8) Barnes

9) Perez

10) Richards

 

If Taylor is healthy, I'd slot him #4.

 

 

[moonslav59]

 

I can't believe you didn't know about Iggy.

 

I don't live in New England, so I'm out of the media loop.

 

I was thinking there was some exception for an injury, but that does not apply to players added after August 31st.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He got the win by giving up runs so offense can bail him out and the he got the win.

 

This is why a win for a reliever is not very good indicator of how he pitched.

 

Say you give a grand slam in a bottom of an inning to let the other team tie it. Then your offense scores runs at the top. You get the win.

 

I wasn't defending Davis, just pointing out that as Saturday's winner, he was active and in action, and not injured -- unless he tripped over a base while celebrating or punched a wall in the clubhouse euphoria.

 

(I've done some stupid things when I was mad, but few when I was too happy, Devin Williams... excluding things I may have said and still don't recall).

[Maxbialystock]

What happened to Davis? He got the win Saturday.

 

And you quite obviously didn't watch the game on Saturday.

[Maxbialystock]

I don't live in New England, so I'm out of the media loop.

 

I was thinking there was some exception for an injury, but that does not apply to players added after August 31st.

 

Fully understand. You can see where I live, which as everyone knows is a hotbed of Red Sox insider info--only it's about Republican stuff.

[Nick]

10) Red Sox

Major League ranks: 9th in ERA+ (111), 12th in K/BB (2.80), 15th in ERA (4.26), 23rd in WHIP (1.38)

 

Bottom line: Boston was extremely careful and extremely patient with staff ace Chris Sale in his return from Tommy John surgery, and that approach has paid enormous dividends down the stretch. Sale has largely looked like his old self since his August return, though he was surprisingly ineffective in trying to shut down the Nationals on the final day of the season. He pairs with Nathan Eovaldi to form a terrific, playoff-tested tandem at the top of the rotation. but with effective rookie Tanner Houck moved to the bullpen to manage his innings, the rotation does have question marks from there. The bullpen is operating without set roles, as Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino have both seen their effectiveness wane in the second half.

 

Rubber meets the road moment. Our pitching staff is not stellar in this group.

 

We finished 4th in runs scored and 3rd in OPS in AL. Offense is not a problem

 

Pitching has to get better.

We'll have Sale for the entire year. Eovaldi is back. Piveta is adequate 4/5 pitcher. Houck showed his value with 5 innings of perfect game last time out.

Whitlock should be stretched out.

 

Work must be done for bullpen.....Taylor, Darwinzon, Sawamura, Barnes, Brasier, Robles. Need major upgrade here.

Edited October 4, 2021 by Nick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And you quite obviously didn't watch the game on Saturday.

 

Wha -- you couldn't hear me yelling at your house, wherever it is on the planet, when that .229-hitting left-handed batter went deep off our lefty specialist? That was as loud as I could scream... until Soto looked at Pivetta's bender to end the series.

[mvp 78]

And you quite obviously didn't watch the game on Saturday.

 

He WAS credited with the win though.

[Maxbialystock]

I was asking about health not telling.

 

Oh, and I meant to ask about Taylor.

 

I was wondering why Davis would be left off Max's list when he's done better than 4-5 pitchers on the list.

 

Bazardo would be a big reach.

 

Vaaldez had that big implosion game (or two) that totally messed up his numbers, but he's been AWOL since Sep 5th. I doubt he's an option.

 

I'd go with these starters- in this order of confidence:

 

1) Eovaldi

2) ERod

3) Houck (could be used as a closer)

4) Sale

5) Pivetta (could be used in relief)

 

Pen (in order of confidence in high leverage)

Note: the pen is the one area I give serious credence to the recency bias effect.

 

1) Whitlock (Houck, if not starting)

2) Brasier

3) Robles

4) Sawamura

5) Davis

6) Ottavino

7) DHern

8) Barnes

9) Perez

10) Richards

 

If Taylor is healthy, I'd slot him #4.

 

 

 

Taylor is still on the IL.

 

To be honest, a roster for one game doesn't mean much. So too your long list of relievers. About which, this: my list was based on their individual WAR's. Davis's is -.1, plus he stunk Saturday vs. the Nats. On the other hand, he went 3.2 innings in September while giving up 0 runs.

 

Should the Sox win tomorrow, I'm not sure the roster for the ALDS is that big a deal if only because you need fewer pitchers for the postseason so a bullpen of 7 plus 5 starters (who can also relieve in a pinch) should be ample.

[moonslav59]

10) Red Sox

Major League ranks: 9th in ERA+ (111), 12th in K/BB (2.80), 15th in ERA (4.26), 23rd in WHIP (1.38)

 

Bottom line: Boston was extremely careful and extremely patient with staff ace Chris Sale in his return from Tommy John surgery, and that approach has paid enormous dividends down the stretch. Sale has largely looked like his old self since his August return, though he was surprisingly ineffective in trying to shut down the Nationals on the final day of the season. He pairs with Nathan Eovaldi to form a terrific, playoff-tested tandem at the top of the rotation. but with effective rookie Tanner Houck moved to the bullpen to manage his innings, the rotation does have question marks from there. The bullpen is operating without set roles, as Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino have both seen their effectiveness wane in the second half.

 

Rubber meets the road moment. Our pitching staff is not stellar in this group.

 

We finished 4th in runs scored and 3rd in OPS in AL. Offense is not a problem

 

Pitching has to get better.

We'll have Sale for the entire year. Eovaldi is back. Piveta is adequate 4/5 pitcher. Houck showed his value with 5 innings of perfect game last time out.

Whitlock should be stretched out.

 

Work must be done for bullpen.....Taylor, Darwinzon, Sawamura, Barnes, Brasier, Robles. Need major upgrade here.

 

I think greatly improving the defense would make our pitching look improved without changing anything, but as I have mentioned before, it is complicated by the fact that some of our best offensive players are entrenched in their positions and not plus defenders. Moving them could create dissension or pouting. Trading them creates issues elsewhere, such as offense or finding a suitable replacement at a reasonable cost.

 

Maybe we can tweak our defense a little, this winter and add some top quality arms, as well. That would be my plan.

 

It might not take as much as I think it will.

 

Our staff was basically top 10 or 12, overall, and if you look at that horrific BAbip number, we could easily claim our staff was top 6-9 in MLB, as strange as that sounds!

 

ERod is a big question, and the QO offer and decision may be a key point in our winter direction.

 

Losing Richards, Perez, Ottavino, Andriese and others looks more like addition by subtraction, even if we replace them all from within our existing system.

 

This also offers us a huge opportunity to greatly improve without even adding to the budget.

 

Bloom will be closely watched, and this winter may define his career as a Sox GM.

 

Of course, the budget set by Henry will be a big factor, but I have to think, Bloom will be allowed to spend up to the tax line, again, assuming the CBA does not radically change anything.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the two aces are on as expected, it will come down to the bullpens. The Yanks would be heavy favorites if the Sox again throw Richards, Ottavino, Hernandez. But Cora used five starters in Game 162, and the guy with better stuff than any of them is Houck (he got a loss in NY's sweep last week, but gave up zero hits). Houck could be the literal wild card.

 

Re. the absences of DJ and JD; the batting champ didn't have a great year, but is still clutch, and a bigger loss to New York than the RBI champ who tripped over the bag jogging to RF.

 

The underrated key to the game that favors the visitors is that Sanchez and his squatting skills are riding the pine. If Sanchez pinch hits late and has to go behind the plate in a close game, the home team is golden -- especially if it goes extra innings.

[moonslav59]

If the two aces are on as expected, it will come down to the bullpens. The Yanks would be heavy favorites if the Sox again throw Richards, Ottavino, Hernandez. But Cora used five starters in Game 162, and the guy with better stuff than any of them is Houck (he got a loss in NY's sweep last week, but gave up zero hits). Houck could be the literal wild card.

.

We also have Whitlock and can use starters, if needed, out of the pen.

 

Eovaldi going deep would certainly give us a big boost in chances of winning, but even if does not, we may still be able to cobble together a formidable pen plan.

 

Having just 2 major hitters to worry about (plus that pesky Gardner dude) helps, too.

 

Our line-up vs the righty looks pretty damn good. No JD hurts, but Schwarber at DH helps our defense look better, as we don't have to play him in LF or 1B, and who knows, maybe our 1Bman (Dalbec) or LF'er (Verdugo) give us some offense similar to what JD might have given us. (The real swap is likely Arroyo for JD's bat, but a better defensive alignment with Arroyo at 2B, Kike in CF, and Verdugo in LF.)

[Bellhorn04]

Any freaking thing can happen in this game. As good as they are, Cole and Eovaldi have both had serious clunkers recently.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I've always been an Evoldi guy, very happy with the contract extension. I agree he is the pitcher who gives us the best chance. I also agree that Cora may indeed use starters in relief as he did on Sunday which was a brilliant move. But I just don't feel good about this game, not one bit.

 

But if we lose I have zero complaints about the season. Just so much fun, especially all the 2 out runs we scored. My wife would have laughed her ass off at my reaction to that Devers 9th inning homerun. OK so I was pretty buzzed but after my initial celebration I buried my head in my hands and leaned against the cat tree and thought "it really happened". You see I saw who was on first and I said to Devers "well you have to hit a home run" and he did on the next pitch.

 

Good times.

[Bellhorn04]

I've always been an Evoldi guy, very happy with the contract extension. I agree he is the pitcher who gives us the best chance. I also agree that Cora may indeed use starters in relief as he did on Sunday which was a brilliant move. But I just don't feel good about this game, not one bit. But if we lose I have zero complaints about the season. Great times. My wife would have laughed her ass off at my reaction to that Devers 9th inning homerun. OK so I was pretty buzzed but after my initial celebration I buried my head in my hands and leaned against the cat tree and thought "it really happened". You see I saw who was on first and I said to Devers "well you have to hit a home run" and he did on the next pitch.

 

Good times.

 

You leaned against the cat tree?

[jad]

You leaned against the cat tree?

 

Hey. I have always believed that what one does in the privacy of one's home, however perverse, however revolting to rational civilized citizens, is one's own business.

[mvp 78]

I've always been an Evoldi guy, very happy with the contract extension. I agree he is the pitcher who gives us the best chance. I also agree that Cora may indeed use starters in relief as he did on Sunday which was a brilliant move. But I just don't feel good about this game, not one bit.

 

But if we lose I have zero complaints about the season. Just so much fun, especially all the 2 out runs we scored. My wife would have laughed her ass off at my reaction to that Devers 9th inning homerun. OK so I was pretty buzzed but after my initial celebration I buried my head in my hands and leaned against the cat tree and thought "it really happened". You see I saw who was on first and I said to Devers "well you have to hit a home run" and he did on the next pitch.

 

Good times.

 

Hope you gave your cats some treats for that one.

[mvp 78]

Hey. I have always believed that what one does in the privacy of one's home, however perverse, however revolting to rational civilized citizens, is one's own business.

 

Well, I hope I get to hand out lots of dog treats tonight and dance with a chihuahua. Not sure if the cats will participate.

[Maxbialystock]

Wha -- you couldn't hear me yelling at your house, wherever it is on the planet, when that .229-hitting left-handed batter went deep off our lefty specialist? That was as loud as I could scream... until Soto looked at Pivetta's bender to end the series.

 

You definitely yelled at the right times. I just meant Davis got the win by accident/luck, not great pitching.

[Maxbialystock]

Vegasinsider has to favor the Yankees because they have the pitching, killed the Sox at Fenway 10 days ago, etc.

 

That said, Eovaldi can be really good, and tonight the Sox will have plenty of good arms in the bullpen, but especially Whitlock and Houck. And the Sox have the better lineup and probably as good fielding.

 

A toss-up and probably a great game to watch. ESPN got lucky.