A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

...except it's every August when Barnes melts down. I'd think after eight years, the professional analyticals would have a plan for management on how to deal with a guy like that.

 

Sometimes even the analytics guys must look at each other and say 'Why TF does he melt down in August?'

[Bellhorn04]

I don't mean to give impression that I'm okay with the team as it stands.

 

I will be very disappointed if we don't add Suzuki.

 

Verdugo, Kike and JBJ? Really? I'm not a fan of JBJ. I was hoping we flip him again for additional minor leaguers. The guy goes on a 3 month slumps.

 

Or Sox can make a bold move and add Correa. I love Xander but he's just not a very good shortstop. You'll know a good shortstop when you see it.

 

Contracts coming off after 2022

$22M JD

$17M Eovaldi

$16M Price

$07M Kike

$07M Vaz

$07M Wacha

$05M Hill

$03M Strahm

Total $77M

 

Throw in another $20M for Xander opting out, that gets us close to $100M coming off the books for 2023.

 

We have hardly anyone under contract for 2023 LOL

[mvp 78]

We have hardly anyone under contract for 2023 LOL

 

Need to reset the cap that year too! We'll be all in for 2024!

[mvp 78]

2023 FA:

DeGrom

Nola

Rodon

Syndergaard

Manea

Bassitt

A. Chapman

Merrifield

Abreu

Muncy

T. Turner

Swanson

Arenado

J. Turner

Jose Ramirez

Blackmon

Myers

Judge

Haniger

Margot

Kiermaier

Benintendi

Gallo

Mancini

[moonslav59]

Any guess on what year "the time" is?

 

I thought they might view this winter at "the time," but obviously not.

 

Next year, we lose so much salary, many of our best players, we almost have to spend big just to stay even. I'm not sure it will be then, either.

 

Maybe it's been wishful thinking it will be sooner rather than later, but I'd guess 2023 or 2024. Maybe they are waiting for Casas and Mayer, then BOOM!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Need to reset the cap that year too! We'll be all in for 2024!

 

"Why not 2022?" asked Red Sox fans. "We were just two wins away from the World Series!"

 

Or was that just because of a lucky bounce... and management doesn't think we're good enough to go for it... but someday, with the luxury savings of all the taxes we're not paying, this CBO with a billionaire's safety deposit box will spend good money on a really good players... when he thinks we're ready to root for a real championship contender again.

[moonslav59]

It's weird. The SoxProspects podcast was even saying last week that they didn't think Bloom would add any LHP depth as they already had more than enough. Maybe he's really concerned about slowly easing the SP into this season due to the lockout? Just adding depth for the sake of depth? IDK.

 

Having pen depth is not a bad thing, and since DHern has options, he may not be in the mix for much of the season.

 

Last season, we used 33 players in a relief role, at some point. True, only 17 were used for more than 6 innings, but 17 still denotes a high need for depth.

 

Taylor has been pretty good, but I'm not all that excited about DHern and Davis.

 

We still have mostly righties as our best RP'ers:

 

1. Houck

2. Whitlock

3. Barnes

4. Taylor

5. Brasier

6. Diekman

7. Sawamura

8. Davis or DHern

 

I'm not seeing a major imbalance.

 

[mvp 78]

"Why not 2022?" asked Red Sox fans. "We were just two wins away from the World Series!"

 

Or was that just because of a lucky bounce... and management doesn't think we're good enough to go for it... but someday, with the luxury savings of all the taxes we're not paying, this CBO with a billionaire's safety deposit box will spend good money on a really good players... when he thinks we're ready to root for a real championship contender again.

 

Maybe management no longer believes the need to "go for it?"

[moonslav59]

"Why not 2022?" asked Red Sox fans. "We were just two wins away from the World Series!"

 

Or was that just because of a lucky bounce... and management doesn't think we're good enough to go for it... but someday, with the luxury savings of all the taxes we're not paying, this CBO with a billionaire's safety deposit box will spend good money on a really good players... when he thinks we're ready to root for a real championship contender again.

 

Had we signed a top pitcher and SS plus Suzuki, would we be a top 4-6 contender in 2022?

 

Would we have still signed significant players to fill in the other gaps we had in the rotation, pen and bench?

 

How much over the tax line would all this have taken?

 

I don't pretend to know the answers to any of this, but my guess is Bloom & Henry & Co. looked it all over and decided this is not "the time."

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe management no longer believes the need to "go for it?"

 

Management or ownership?

[mvp 78]

Having pen depth is not a bad thing, and since DHern has options, he may not be in the mix for much of the season.

 

Last season, we used 33 players in a relief role, at some point. True, only 17 were used for more than 6 innings, but 17 still denotes a high need for depth.

 

Taylor has been pretty good, but I'm not all that excited about DHern and Davis.

 

We still have mostly righties as our best RP'ers:

 

1. Houck

2. Whitlock

3. Barnes

4. Taylor

5. Brasier

6. Diekman

7. Sawamura

8. Davis or DHern

 

I'm not seeing a major imbalance.

 

 

You think Houck and Whitlock will both be in the pen? I've heard that they are trying to stretch Whitlock out.

[moonslav59]

Maybe management no longer believes the need to "go for it?"

 

True. They may be gearing up for an always be just good enough to keep fan interest alive and well- maybe add a piece here and there, when chances look better, but basically never going all out like 2018, again.

[mvp 78]

Management or ownership?

 

Management to me is Henry, Bloom, Kennedy and anyone else at the C level.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Bloom says Paxton on track for the second half of the season. Vague timetables on Mata and Ward returning are sooner than Paxton. No calendars mapped out for them yet.

[moonslav59]

You think Houck and Whitlock will both be in the pen? I've heard that they are trying to stretch Whitlock out.

 

They said that last year, too.

 

I think the plan is to start the year with Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Hill and Wacha in the rotation.

 

If they sub Whitlock for Wacha, we still have Wacha (RHP) in the top 3-5 RP'ers in the pen. It doesn't change the balance.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Had we signed a top pitcher and SS plus Suzuki, would we be a top 4-6 contender in 2022?

 

Would we have still signed significant players to fill in the other gaps we had in the rotation, pen and bench?

 

How much over the tax line would all this have taken?

 

I don't pretend to know the answers to any of this, but my guess is Bloom & Henry & Co. looked it all over and decided this is not "the time."

 

Maybe, but it's hard to sell this to Red Sox fans who spend hard earned money on a team they just want to believe cares as much as they do about winning each and every year.

 

It's also hard to believe that Bloom is a unique guy who has never planned on trying to win it all in his three years as the man in charge, the one ultimately responsible for doing anything and everything to win the last game of the season. He must have the patience of a trout fisherman. Or a married man.

[mvp 78]

If they sub Whitlock for Wacha, we still have Wacha (RHP) in the top 3-5 RP'ers in the pen. It doesn't change the balance.

 

Once we get into the season, I think you'll change your tune.

 

@redsoxstats

Pretty crazy that Gallo, Lowe, and Kiermaier the only regular LHHs on NYY-TOR-TB

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Dave Bush tells @jcmccaffrey that the Sox are open to spreading out the high leverage relief innings over multiple guys, playing match-ups, and being open-minded about who's pitching at the end of games. Thinks it'll be a benefit in the long run.

 

Might have to have some sort of committee for people that could close?

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

Dave Bush tells @jcmccaffrey that the Sox are open to spreading out the high leverage relief innings over multiple guys, playing match-ups, and being open-minded about who's pitching at the end of games. Thinks it'll be a benefit in the long run.

 

Might have to have some sort of committee for people that could close?

 

The C word is non PC.

[moonslav59]

Maybe, but it's hard to sell this to Red Sox fans who spend hard earned money on a team they just want to believe cares as much as they do about winning each and every year.

 

It's also hard to believe that Bloom is a unique guy who has never planned on trying to win it all in his three years as the man in charge, the one ultimately responsible for doing anything and everything to win the last game of the season. He must have the patience of a trout fisherman. Or a married man.

 

Caring about winning vs winning it all are two different things, IMO.

 

As I said, I don't have the answers.

 

I hope we try to balance out the winning and stay competitive every year, but I also want us to go big when we feel like we are one key player away from being a top 3-4 contender. Does that necessarily mess with the rest of the longer term plan? Maybe- maybe not.

 

I don't think we'll see a big farm sale that led to 2018 and the nice seasons before '18, but maybe we can find a happy medium.

[moonslav59]

Once we get into the season, I think you'll change your tune.

 

@redsoxstats

Pretty crazy that Gallo, Lowe, and Kiermaier the only regular LHHs on NYY-TOR-TB

 

I'm guessing I will, too.

 

It might be Hill that needs replacing- or maybe even Pivetta.

 

I'm not thrilled with the rotation. I was hoping for better than Wacha, Hill and a broken down Paxson.

[mvp 78]

I'm guessing I will, too.

 

It might be Hill that needs replacing- or maybe even Pivetta.

 

I'm not thrilled with the rotation. I was hoping for better than Wacha, Hill and a broken down Paxson.

 

I think Hill will most likely be out for an extended period. Pivetta was decent for a back of the rotation guy. I think Wacha is trash. An injury to Eovaldi or diminished stuff from Sale would doom this season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

I'm not thrilled with the rotation.

 

How can any fan be? We're counting on the same top-2 going into 2019, three years and one major surgery later...

 

It's also unfair to expect both Whitlock and Houck to be as good or better than their rookie years, but right now they're our best hope.

 

And I really don't care how many mediocre pieces they acquire to fill the missing ERod innings and late game match-ups, and closer committees; it all smacks of patchwork, and that doesn't win.

Edited March 14, 2022 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[moonslav59]

How can any fan be? We're counting on the same top-2 going into 2019, three years and one major surgery later...

 

It's also unfair to expect both Whitlock and Houck to be as good or better than their rookie years, but right now they're our best hope.

 

And I really don't care how many mediocre pieces they acquire to fill the missing ERod innings and late game match-ups, and closer committees; it all smacks of patchwork, and that doesn't win.

 

I'm still hoping for a trade that improves the rotation. It would also move someone to the pen and strengthen that.

 

My second choice would be to sign McHugh, which would make moving Whitlock to the rotation easier.

 

I'm tired of patch working, too, but in the overall scheme of things, we've come farther and faster than I could have ever expected.

 

Think of how well we did, last season, with a patch work of Richards, Perez, Pivetta, Marwin, Cordero, Santana and many more, who were all viewed as barely better than replacement level players- if that.

 

Even our big signing, Kike, was not viewed all that favorably by many on this site. Maybe this new group will renew the faith in Bloom's ability to find hidden gems in the rough.

 

[moonslav59]

I think Hill will most likely be out for an extended period. Pivetta was decent for a back of the rotation guy. I think Wacha is trash. An injury to Eovaldi or diminished stuff from Sale would doom this season.

 

I was one of Pivetta's biggest supporters, last year, and I still feel uneasy about him putting 2 decent seasons together, back-to-back.

 

We may see regression from Eovaldi, Whitlock and or Houck, as well.

 

I'm not feelin doom and gloom, nor do I want to give that impression. I still think Bloom is not done, and by opening day, we'll look as good or nearly as good as any other AL team... maybe more on the "nearly" side, but still. We have a nice core, and a few promising supporting pieces. We've added some depth, and the bottom of the 40 man roster looks better than last year's at this time.

 

We also have some hope of farm help in Seabold, Winckowski and maybe later with Casas and some younger arms.

 

It's the rotation that concerns me most- as usual.

[Old Red]

I was one of Pivetta's biggest supporters, last year, and I still feel uneasy about him putting 2 decent seasons together, back-to-back.

 

We may see regression from Eovaldi, Whitlock and or Houck, as well.

 

I'm not feelin doom and gloom, nor do I want to give that impression. I still think Bloom is not done, and by opening day, we'll look as good or nearly as good as any other AL team... maybe more on the "nearly" side, but still. We have a nice core, and a few promising supporting pieces. We've added some depth, and the bottom of the 40 man roster looks better than last year's at this time.

 

We also have some hope of farm help in Seabold, Winckowski and maybe later with Casas and some younger arms.

 

It's the rotation that concerns me most- as usual.

 

Moon you have been wishing, and hoping for Bloom to make a trade not named JBJ, or sign a big FA since the end of last season, and I’m with you on that, but I still go back to the year end press conference by Kennedy, and Bloom, and I don’t think it’s going to happen. The Sox have signed a bunch of bargain basement pitchers, and got JBJ. You might not get much else.

[Old Red]

I don't mean to give impression that I'm okay with the team as it stands.

 

I will be very disappointed if we don't add Suzuki.

 

Verdugo, Kike and JBJ? Really? I'm not a fan of JBJ. I was hoping we flip him again for additional minor leaguers. The guy goes on a 3 month slumps.

 

Or Sox can make a bold move and add Correa. I love Xander but he's just not a very good shortstop. You'll know a good shortstop when you see it.

 

Contracts coming off after 2022

$22M JD (replaced by Dalbec/Casas)

$17M Eovaldi (replaced by Houck)

$16M Price

$07M Kike (re-sign him)

$07M Vaz

$07M Wacha (replaced by Whitlock)

$05M Hill (replaced by Paxton)

$03M Strahm

 

Total $77M

 

Throw in another $20M for Xander opting out, that gets us close to $100M coming off the books for 2023.

 

Cot's has us at $210M. We could blow past the $230M this year and bring it back down next year.

 

Flip JBJ for more prospects? Who else do you think would take on JBJ , and his contract, and give you back prospects. That shows you how bad the Brewers wanted to unload him. The only way I see taking him would be to unload a contract worse than his.

[moonslav59]

Moon you have been wishing, and hoping for Bloom to make a trade not named JBJ, or sign a big FA since the end of last season, and I’m with you on that, but I still go back to the year end press conference by Kennedy, and Bloom, and I don’t think it’s going to happen. The Sox have signed a bunch of bargain basement pitchers, and got JBJ. You might not get much else.

 

I realize this. Hope is not the same as thinking it will happen.

 

I do think there are some moderate deals that are not far-fetched, like signing Suzuki or McHugh or trading for a tanking team's salary issues, but I will not be surprised if we stick to the Wacha & Hill type deals for a while longer.

 

I'm still asking the question: what major signing has happened, this winter, that anybody wishes we paid that amount or more for that player's services?

 

I'm not seeing anything that looks like even being close to a no-brainer choice.

 

Maybe I need to adjust my FA value calculations. Maybe Bloom does.

 

I'm not pretending to be a wizard. I thought Price met the qualifications for a once in a long while all-in type of signing.

 

I'm content with knowing that Bloom knows more than I do, but that won't stop me from scratching my head till it bleeds, sometimes.

 

LOL!

[moonslav59]

Flip JBJ for more prospects? Who else do you think would take on JBJ , and his contract, and give you back prospects. That shows you how bad the Brewers wanted to unload him. The only way I see taking him would be to unload a contract worse than his.

 

Nobody is giving prospects for JBJ and that deal.

 

Yes, we'd have to take on a contract, like maybe Moustakas, or include prospects like the Brewers did.

 

JBJ ain't going anywhere.

 

JD and Bogey might be the ones we look to trade and make budget room for a signing or two.

 

I'm not sure Vaz has much trade value, and we don't have a FT ML-ready catcher to take his place.

 

We won't sell Barnes on a low note.

 

Trading Eovaldi would be giving in for '22.

 

This deadline could get real interesting, depending on our placement in the standings and playoff hunt. Having 12 teams making the playoffs might keep the hope alive for a few teams normally looking to dump at the deadline.

 

Who knows, maybe we will be buyers, again.

 

[moonslav59]

Have the terms been announced and the deal finalized with Diekman, yet?

 

cots has us at about $20M left to spend to stay under the tax line.

 

Adding Strahm & Diekman put us at 41 players on the 40 man. My guess is Hudson Potts gets DFA'd. (He likely will not be claimed.)