A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

How long would a deal for Marte be? 3 years? He will be 34 next season.

 

It's these possible 2-4 year deals maybe Bloom ends up settling on- assuming he is avoiding large and long deals, this winter.

[moonslav59]

What?

 

Devers had a .352 OBP this year, not to mention a .538 SLG. And he was only 24.

 

Holding a bad year from a very early age against a player yet to reach prime is not really fair.

 

While career numbers do carry weight, I like to look at last 2-3 years as a better indicator of who a player is. Looking at their age matters, too.

[notin]

It's these possible 2-4 year deals maybe Bloom ends up settling on- assuming he is avoiding large and long deals, this winter.

 

If the Sox do go for shorter or cheaper free agents, there really still is no need to go get Marte or any potential starting outfielder, especially if they are still enamored with Schwarber. At some point, they can and maybe should either give Duran a try or move him somewhere to a team that will.

 

He also fills the speed requirement, although I think the case for one was a bit overblown...

[moonslav59]

If the Sox do go for shorter or cheaper free agents, there really still is no need to go get Marte or any potential starting outfielder, especially if they are still enamored with Schwarber. At some point, they can and maybe should either give Duran a try or move him somewhere to a team that will.

 

He also fills the speed requirement, although I think the case for one was a bit overblown...

 

I am not for adding and OF'er or bringing Schwarber back, unless we have a trade in place (JD or Renfroe).

 

I want pitching and almost all of our spending on pitching (and maybe Iggy.)

 

I don't see any 5+ year player that fits the Red Sox profile. There are SS's, some who could play 2B for a year, that are worth 5+ year deals, but that is not a high need area, unless we trade Bogey.

[notin]

I am not for adding and OF'er or bringing Schwarber back, unless we have a trade in place (JD or Renfroe).

 

I want pitching and almost all of our spending on pitching (and maybe Iggy.)

 

I don't see any 5+ year player that fits the Red Sox profile. There are SS's, some who could play 2B for a year, that are worth 5+ year deals, but that is not a high need area, unless we trade Bogey.

 

I'd like to see Schwarber back, along with Bogaerts not traded (and even extended).

 

At catcher, I assume they will bring Vazquez back. If they want to decline his option and upgrade the defense, 33yo Roberto Perez (35 DRS in the last 3 years as opposed to Vaz' 11) is one free agent option who presumably would cost less than $7mill. Hi backup in Cleveland is Austin Hedges, who has 32 DRS in the same timeframe, and might be available if the Guardians re-sign Perez. On the free agent market, 31yo Tucket Barnhart has 13 DRS - or just 2 more than Vazquez - in the same time frame, but in 450 fewer innings. Barnhart won't hit like Vaz, if that matters (and it has to at some point). And 34yo Manny Pina is one the best defensive catchers available, but those skills could start declining at any moment...

[Bellhorn04]

And Pina is a backup catcher.

[moonslav59]

Here’s a look back at last year’s signings and additions:

 

$Millions

10 Richards

8 Ottavino

7 Kike x 2

6 Perez

3.5 Andriese

3.1 Renfroe

3 Marwin

1.8 Santana

1.2 Sawamura

-2.8 Beni

 

We spent a little over $40M, and people accuses Henry of going cheap. We picked up some more salary at the deadline.

 

This was 9 players plus 3 at the deadline and Shaw and Iggy, later. (minus Andriese).

 

If we spend $35-40M, this winter on just 4-5 players, we should be able to get higher quality. It will be $7-10M per player not $4-5M average per player, last winter.

 

As you can see from last winter, Bloom did not "hit" too well with his biggest additions, so let's hope he does better in that area, this winter.

 

My projected 40 man roster, opening day:

 

Vaz

Wong

RHernandez (or Plawecki)

 

Dalbec

Casas

 

Arroyo

_____ (Iggy?)

Arauz

 

Bogaerts

Downs

 

Devers

 

Verdugo

JD

 

Kike

Duran

 

Renfroe

 

Eovaldi

_______

Sale

_______ (ERod?)

Pivetta

Seabold

Groome

Crawford (5)

Winckowski (5)

Bello (5)

Santos (5)

Mata

 

Houck

Whitlock

Barnes

Taylor

______

Brasier

DHern

Sawamura

Davis

Valdez

Bazardo

Feltman (5)

 

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see Schwarber back, along with Bogaerts not traded (and even extended).

 

At catcher, I assume they will bring Vazquez back. If they want to decline his option and upgrade the defense, 33yo Roberto Perez (35 DRS in the last 3 years as opposed to Vaz' 11) is one free agent option who presumably would cost less than $7mill. Hi backup in Cleveland is Austin Hedges, who has 32 DRS in the same timeframe, and might be available if the Guardians re-sign Perez. On the free agent market, 31yo Tucket Barnhart has 13 DRS - or just 2 more than Vazquez - in the same time frame, but in 450 fewer innings. Barnhart won't hit like Vaz, if that matters (and it has to at some point). And 34yo Manny Pina is one the best defensive catchers available, but those skills could start declining at any moment...

 

It wasn't hard to "hit like Vaz," this season.

 

I think $7M is too much. I'd trade Vaz or don't offer the option, if nobody will trade for him.

 

I really like Schwarber, too, but it's a luxury I don't think we can afford to divert funding to.

[notin]

And Pina is a backup catcher.

 

His much more limited play does make his DRS numbers more impressive, but he would be very far from my first option.

 

I fully expect Vazquez and Plawecki back next season for the Sox. I just don't expect a huge overhaul in the lineup of the American League runner-ups...

[notin]

It wasn't hard to "hit like Vaz," this season.

 

I think $7M is too much. I'd trade Vaz or don't offer the option, if nobody will trade for him.

 

I really like Schwarber, too, but it's a luxury I don't think we can afford to divert funding to.

 

If $7mill is too much for Vazquez in Boston, his trade value is nil. Either pick up the option and start him or decline it and let him find work on his own...

[moonslav59]

His much more limited play does make his DRS numbers more impressive, but he would be very far from my first option.

 

I fully expect Vazquez and Plawecki back next season for the Sox. I just don't expect a huge overhaul in the lineup of the American League runner-ups...

 

I'm not sure we keep 4 catchers on the 40 man: Vaz, Plawecki, Wong and R Hernandez. RH's stock fell, this season, but he offers more future hopes than Plawecki or Vaz.

 

I think we trade or non tender one (not Wong.)

 

[Bellhorn04]

It wasn't hard to "hit like Vaz," this season.

 

I think $7M is too much. I'd trade Vaz or don't offer the option, if nobody will trade for him.

 

There's a pretty big disconnect between your opinion of Vaz and your posts about how good the pitching numbers would have been this year if the defense was better.

[moonslav59]

If $7mill is too much for Vazquez in Boston, his trade value is nil. Either pick up the option and start him or decline it and let him find work on his own...

 

Maybe some GM will offer a far off prospect for him. Find that out before you say no to his option.

 

I would not pay him $7M for reasons everyone knows, but some GM might.

 

He did hit neat .800 from 2019-2020, so that ups his value a little. Not many catchers have ever done that in recent years.

[moonslav59]

There's a pretty big disconnect between your opinion of Vaz and your posts about how good the pitching numbers would have been this year if the defense was better.

 

I would not bring Vaz back at $7M. I'd trade him, if we do bring him back.

 

Where is the disconnect?

[Old Red]

Maybe some GM will offer a far off prospect for him. Find that out before you say no to his option.

 

I would not pay him $7M for reasons everyone knows, but some GM might.

 

He did hit neat .800 from 2019-2020, so that ups his value a little. Not many catchers have ever done that in recent years.

 

I’m not a big Vaz fan, but who you going to replace him with?

[notin]

It wasn't hard to "hit like Vaz," this season.

 

I think $7M is too much. I'd trade Vaz or don't offer the option, if nobody will trade for him.

 

I really like Schwarber, too, but it's a luxury I don't think we can afford to divert funding to.

 

Let's not overblow the need for pitching here.

 

The Sox won 92 games with virtually nothing from Sale. Now, maybe this is Sale going forward, but maybe not. Either way, is there a free agent option available that is a definitive improvement over what we expect from Sale next season?

 

If one of Houck or Whitlock move to the rotation, that leaves one spot remaining that might go to ERod (along with Sale, Eovaldi, and Pivetta). If ERod is not returning, that leaves one available rotation (re: expensive) slot to fill, before acquiring all the uninspiring but necessary depth arms. In the bullpen, I expect to see Houck/Whitlock, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Davis, Hernandez and Sawamura. So maybe one or two relievers, and probably some MiLB depth.

 

I expect additions, but unless if ERod returns, it might not be so drastic.

 

And depending what happens with Schwarber and/or 2B, the Sox do have adequate trade bait with Duran to make at least one pitching acquisition...

[notin]

There's a pretty big disconnect between your opinion of Vaz and your posts about how good the pitching numbers would have been this year if the defense was better.

 

I believe the common thread is that he does not value Vazquez defensively, and that Vaz is part of the defensive problem as opposed to the solution...

[mvp 78]

What?

 

Devers had a .352 OBP this year, not to mention a .538 SLG. And he was only 24.

 

Bye bye!

[mvp 78]

Belt is a far greater injury risk as the current MLB career leader in concussions...

 

He's not even in consideration for me. I like Belt less than Pablo does.

[mvp 78]

It's these possible 2-4 year deals maybe Bloom ends up settling on- assuming he is avoiding large and long deals, this winter.

 

Why are we assuming no big deals this winter again?

[notin]

He's not even in consideration for me. I like Belt less than Pablo does.

 

Interestingly, Belt is a former Sox draft pick pitcher who also made the majors more recently than Lester and Papelbon. Yet we always forget him on that list. Probably because he didn't sign with the Sox and stopped pitching, but still...

[Bellhorn04]

I would not bring Vaz back at $7M. I'd trade him, if we do bring him back.

 

Where is the disconnect?

 

Because your low opinion seems to be tied to your belief that he doesn't handle the pitching staff well, but you also point out how good the pitching was this year.

 

That's the disconnect.

[notin]

Why are we assuming no big deals this winter again?

 

Makes for a more lively discussion.

 

Your challenge - propose a plan to improve the Sox bullpen solely with the money found in your sofa cushions - GO!

[mvp 78]

If the Sox do go for shorter or cheaper free agents, there really still is no need to go get Marte or any potential starting outfielder, especially if they are still enamored with Schwarber. At some point, they can and maybe should either give Duran a try or move him somewhere to a team that will.

 

He also fills the speed requirement, although I think the case for one was a bit overblown...

 

Yeah, I don't see them spending big on OF. I think Duran is given a real shot this spring.

[notin]

Because your low opinion seems to be tied to your belief that he doesn't handle the pitching staff well, but you also point out how good the pitching was this year.

 

That's the disconnect.

 

I think you're forgetting about the Plawecki Effect!

[notin]

Yeah, I don't see them spending big on OF. I think Duran is given a real shot this spring.

 

In Boston?

[mvp 78]

Makes for a more lively discussion.

 

Your challenge - propose a plan to improve the Sox bullpen solely with the money found in your sofa cushions - GO!

 

Barnes

Brasier

Valdez

DHern

Feltman

Ort

Taylor

Davis

 

Houck and Whitlock move to the pen because ERod leaves and Bloom doesn't know where the couch is.

[mvp 78]

In Boston?

 

Yeah.

[mvp 78]

Interestingly, Belt is a former Sox draft pick pitcher who also made the majors more recently than Lester and Papelbon. Yet we always forget him on that list. Probably because he didn't sign with the Sox and stopped pitching, but still...

 

Charlie Blackmon was also drafted as a LHP in 2005.

 

Sox drafted Anthony DeSclafani in 2008.

 

The only person moon really is doing dirty is Brian Johnson.

[notin]

Barnes

Brasier

Valdez

DHern

Feltman

Ort

Taylor

Davis

 

Houck and Whitlock move to the pen because ERod leaves and Bloom doesn't know where the couch is.

 

I actually like the idea of keeping both Whitlock and Houck in the bullpen. Barnes is probably better than how he ended the season last year, but is clearly not the pitcher he was at the beginning. I think keeping one of Ort and Feltman is realistic, but since neither is on the 40 man and there fore have options, are they better served by starting in Pawtucket and becoming depth pieces used as the injuries mount?

 

Also, Bloom knows where the couch is and clearly routes threw the cushions. It's where he found Matt Andriese last year...